Thursday, September 18, 2008

Set The Bar Too High, Now I Can't Jump Over

People, I have won my first four pool bets of the year. If I had been using real money, I'd be making a Kobe beef meatloaf for dinner tonight. But I hadn't been, so all I can do is use complimentary words about myself. Long time readers (since Monday) know that I'm also in first place in the confidence pool, surviving in the survival pool and won in fantasy to be split 1-1 on the season.

Like Icarus, my ascent cannot last forever. But can it last one more week? Please?

In confidence, I'm wavering between Buffalo and San Diego. I like Buffalo because of how much I dislike Oakland and I'd like to save San Diego for a divisional game against the Chiefs or Raiders, but I'm also positive the 0-2 and angry about it Chargers will be able to stop the four Jet offensive plays Brett Favre has memorized so far. Maybe I'll go with New England because if you get blown out by Arizona, Miami Dolphins, you are pure stink.

There are a few bets out there that aren't huge turnoffs, but with 3600 points, a sole claim to 2nd place and most of the pool in the 2000-2400 point range, I don't want to go above three bets this week. Three is nice. Three lets me go 2-1 and make a little progress or 1-2 and still be ahead of the curve. No, going 0-3 is not an option I haven't considered to this point. I like Jacksonville +5.5 against the Colts for a few reasons. Although 80% of Jaguars offensive line is currently wrapped head to toe in gauze, the not-so-goodness of the Colts defensive line makes that a wash. Plus, Bob Sanders is out and I believe that since 2005, the ratio of Bob Sanders Missed Games to Colts Losses is somewhere around 1:1. Also, the Colts offensive line is no great shakes and if you don't want to believe me, ask Lake Balboa Ladybug star and dreadlockian Southerner Joseph Addai.

I'm also thinking about taking over 51 points in the Denver / New Orleans since both teams can pass and not stop the pass. And I may take San Diego -9.5 because the Jets are just that bad.

And then there's the confidence pool, home of my five point lead on my colleagues. I'm looky looking at...

New England - 16
New York Giants - 15
San Diego - 14
Buffalo - 13
Denver - 12
Tennessee - 11
San Francisco - 10
Atlanta - 9
Seattle - 8
Chicago - 7
Baltimore - 6
Carolina - 5
Pittsburgh - 4
Jacksonville - 3
Arizona - 2
Green Bay - 1

You think I feel good about putting 10, 9 and 8 points on three atrocious teams? Oh to the hell to the nawls. I feel terrible about it, in fact. But I'm picking four upsets in Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Arizona and Green Bay and unless you feel ultra strong about an upset, you'd better put low points on it. Besides, the terrible trifecta of SF, ATL and SEA all have big spreads, so if they go down, they'll pull down at least three of us and I don't lose too much.

So there you have it. The picks of a man who is flat dominating everything he touches these days. Enjoy the fruits of my harvest, go forth and cash in your own bad self.

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