Thursday, September 11, 2008

Sunday Will Either Be Brutal Or Beautiful

Actually, right up front, my fantasy team is going to be brutal. Marques Colston is out 4-6 weeks with shame after only scoring two points in week 1. I think something maybe also happened to his thumb. Even if Addai no longer has a headache, he faces a crushing Minnesota run defense with a college-level offensive line leading his way. Leading his way right into defenders, basically. So with Colston out, DeSean Jackson moves from W/R to WR2 and now of my four iffy backs (because of matchups or status), at least two will start. Probably Chester Taylor against a weak Indy run D and maybe Tim Hightower for a theoretically easy touchdown on Miami. Not looking amazing, however.

I do have a trade in the works of Selvin Young for Randy "No QB" Moss, but the interleague grumbling makes me feel it's going to be vetoed. If I keep Young, he faces San Diego, another good run stopping tackle bunch. I don't think my opponent will exactly light it up, but if he cracks 60, he should be fine.

For the confidence pool, I do not like who the favorites are this week. The key to this pool is to tread water. Don't get blown out in a given week like Brian did last week with a shameful 64. And the best way to tread water is to pick 12-14 favorites with a few upsets sprinkled in on the low end of the point scale. Fine. I can dig it. I can play your game. But the way the lines are right now, there's a chance I'm putting at least 12 points on Arizona. Even against Miami, I would have to be very highly medicated before I felt comfortable putting 12 points on Arizona. I shivered right now just thinking about it. Tampa is such a big favorite against Atlanta, even with Griese, that I might have to put something like 22 points on them even though we're only supposed to go up to 16. Puke.

My confidence pool isn't final yet, but it might end up looking something like...

New York Giants - 16
Pittsburgh - 15
Green Bay - 14

...and um...

...uh...

I'm going to have to get back to you on this one. But you might see Minnesota on my list with 5 or fewer points. I like them to win this week against Indianapolis for the exact same reason Chicago beat the Colts last week. The middle of the Colts' line - on both sides of the ball - is just gone right now. Why? Because I drafted Addai. We've covered this. Extensively.

But oddly enough, even though I hate the lines for picking straight winners, there are a lot of bets I like for the points pool. I'm absolutely taking Tennessee +1 at Cincinnati. Kerry Collins is better than Vince Young, both at quarterbacking and not hating life in the NFL, and Cincy is a shambles right now, even by Bungle standards. Green Bay -3 at Detroit is interesting, as is Buffalo +5.5, San Francisco +7 and Philly +7. I guess you could say I think the lines are a little too high this week. Not sure if I have the balls to lay down five 400-point bets when I only have 2400 points (never wowed anybody with my balls...nicer ding dong), but I could see at least three bets in my Week 2 future.

And lastly, for survival, I'ma probably just put my head down, moo and follow the herd to either the Giants or Steelers.

Oh man, I'm either going to be loving life or writing another long, bitchy post come Monday morning.

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