Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Blood Tornado

It was a rough week in the betting pool as I went 2-3, my first negative week. Chad Pennington's INT for a TD basically ensured that I would lose both my MIA -3 and BAL/MIA under 36 bets, and Brett Favre's propensity for not looking before he throws sank my NYJ -3 wager. Only TEN -8 and IND/GB over 47.5 came in, and it took a last minute touchdown to send that game 0.5 points over.

But life is timing and I timed my first dog of a week perfectly. It was a blood tornado in the pool this week. There was more red on the Week 7 sheet than on a science test in a Tennessee high school. Julie Ash, who I simply cannot shake, went 1-2. Others in the top 10 went 0-3, 0-4, 0-5 and 2-6. One guy went 2-0 and moved all the way to second place, only 600 points behind me. I'm standing tall like Dwayne Johnson at 5800, 2-0 guy is 5200, Julie Ash has 5000, there's a bloke at 4200 and then it drops all the way down to 3000. So we're seeing some separation, but an 0-4 week and I will be de-separated.

A few bets are jumping out at me and right now I'm looking at taking CIN +9.5, CAR -4.5, BUF -1, and if Damon Huard plays, KC +13. If Huard plays, I would probably take over 39 in that game as well. But if Tyler Thigpen is the guy for the Chiefs, FOR-get it. Maybe San Diego -3 with Bush out, but what a long road trip they're on. Philadelphia -9 is interesting because I don't think Matt Ryan is ready for that defense on the road, but we'll see if Westbrook is actually back. I won't be making more than five bets this week and I'm more likely to just take Cincy, Carolina and Buffalo. I can't believe I'm actually hoping Damon Huard plays so I can bet on him. Hard to believe I've been in first place for four weeks.

Speaking of first place, I wrested back control of the confidence pool with another smooth week. I'm playing this thing like the U.S. Open right now. An early eagle and now I'm just trying to par my way back to the clubhouse. Maybe I make another birdie along the way to pad the lead. The whole group was only separated by 6 points, but my 4-point gap on Max put me back up 2. Ryan, who was a pair of last second finishes away from being 25 points back last week, won Week 7 and is now only 8 points out of first. Brian, 34 points back, will be buying the first round of drinks at dinner.

I feel good about my confidence picks, but I basically have no idea about assigning points. For the first time in my 25 weeks of doing this, there is no clear-cut 14 point team. Washington looks decent, but they're on the road at Detroit and have been spotty at best the last two weeks. Philadelphia at home against the Falcons might actually be my 14-pointer and I won't go to bed Saturday feeling very good about that one. The Steelers are only getting one point because I am greatly worried about New York's front four against our line, and with McFadden and possibly Polamalu out, our defense could be passed on. I'm really tempted to pick Cincinnati with one point, but I think I'll just put 3 on Houston in a fake upset pick.

Tampa, Buffalo, New England, San Diego, the Jets, Baltimore, Carolina, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Tennessee are the other picks, and I'm close to picking numbers out of a hat for them. I might put 8 or 9 on Tennessee because I'm confident about them and I think there could be an Indy pick or two and that would be a nice gainer. Or a terrible loss. Let's not think about that option.

This could end up being one of those weeks separated by 20 points. I just hope I'm on the happy side of that gap.

No comments: