Wednesday, October 1, 2008

What To Do, What To Do

I savored the pure joy that is the 4-0 weekend again. A fantasy win that saw me put up the most points in the league, the Steelers pulling out a beautiful comeback victory that only required injuries to half of the roster, I maintained my overall lead in the confidence pool and my betting pool picks went 2-1. When you combine the 4-0 week with the miraculous late San Diego cover which saw Tomlinson run for a meaningless 40-yard touchdown, it becomes apparently that I am only a vessel and something greater is working through me. That something greater being...blind luck.

However, there is some bad news and that is the fact that playing for the Lake Balboa Ladybugs is toxic to one's health. Perhaps our stadium was built on an old uranium mine and we didn't do enough research before breaking ground, but in Week 1, Joseph Addai got a concussion, Week 2 saw the announcement that Marques Colston was out for 6 weeks, Jeremy Shockey needed a month off after Week 3 and in Week 4 Anquan Boldin almost had his head knocked off of his body. So look out, Ladybugs! It's rough out there.

The confidence pool is quickly shaping up into a two man race. Max picked up one point on me to cut my lead to 4, but Ryan - normally the king of confidence - has bombed out twice and now trails by 18. Brian won the last two weeks, but all that did was cut his deficit from 45 to 32, so he is probably just playing out the string. I've enjoyed holding the lead for three straight weeks and a menu heavy on favorites will hopefully keep me there for another week. As of now, I'm looking at:

Dallas - 14 (I would put 50 points on this one if I could)
Carolina - 13
New York Giants - 12
San Diego - 11
Denver - 10
New England - 9
Green Bay - 8
New Orleans - 7
Philadelphia - 6
Chicago - 5
Tennessee - 4
Jacksonville - 3
Buffalo - 2
Houston - 1

Buffalo and Houston are outright upset picks and if the Texans hold down their home fort, I should be looking even sweeter than I ususally do. The low points assigned to Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Chicago are back door upsets that I'm hoping to pick up ground on if we're all wrong.

As for the betting pool, the 2-1 effort bumped me up to 5200 points. My lead is still 800, but now it's over a different person. I'm not sure if that matters or not. Third place is 4000, fourth is 3600 and then there's a group at 3200, so I'm liking my cushion. Liking the cushion more than I like any of this weeks lines, in fact. I can't see myself making more than three bets, perhaps Washington +5.5, San Diego - 6.5 and Buffalo +1. Over 44 in the Cincinnati/Dallas game is interesting. Houston +3 is intriguing. I'm really torn on whether I should just make one bet and force the rest of the pool to try and catch me or make four or five wagers and keep riding the hot streak. Problem is, if the hot streak hits a 1-4 wall at 150 mph, I'm right back in the middle of the pack. What to do, what to do...

One last note, besides the WVFL Week 5 Preview, the Krog Blog is going to dim the lights for a few days. I'll be in Austin for a long weekend eating barbecue like a dog. Meaning with no hands and past the point of not being hungry any more.

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