Saturday, November 3, 2012

AFFL Week 9 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 31-17

Let me get into a couple of things before we get to the picks. First off, we went out for tricks and treats Wednesday night like everybody else. Living in Los Angeles since '99, I've become accustomed to this place basically being an all-star game for attractive women. But goddamn, where there a lot of hot moms out there. It's not like we were in Brentwood or Newport Beach or some other trophy wife, storage town. We were in a totally average suburb. Here I am, trying to keep track of two kids and bumpy sidewalks in the dark, and I'm dealing with a steady stream of tight-jeaned distractions.

Second off, the AFFL trade market suddenly got hotter than Halloween hot moms. No, I am not referring to Gary trading an injured rookie and a mid-late draft pick for a guy who can't crack his starting lineup. Sure, James Jones technically achieved Gary's benchmark of "10 points a game average." But with Jones having 4 games with 14+ points, and 3 games with 7 or fewer (there's the problem with averages!),watching Gary try to manage those spot starts is going to be quite amusing.

The real needle mover was the McCoy/White deal. I hate this trade A LOT because it is pretty smart and really perfect for both teams and those teams are already good and I am petty. I don't know where Larry was on this one, although I know he wants to franchise Julio Jones. Maybe one super-skilled decoy franchise player is enough for him. I would've cut Andre Johnson to land McCoy, or Fitzgerald or Andrew Luck or most definitely Miles Austin. Mainly I would've been aggressive knowing that there's one team in the league that made perfect sense here. One team with a great record, the most points in the league, and an Illinois-sized hole at the FP spot.

Somebody should've sniffed out Abba's play here, stepped up and taken one for the teams. But nobody did and we're potentially facing a San Francisco/Dallas 1990s situation here. Our last best hope is that Houston runs Arian into the ground with 400 carries, all but guaranteeing a catastrophic 2013 injury.

On to the games...


ISIS (3-5) vs. ABBADABBA'S (6-2)
That said, it's not entirely unrealistic that Abba's drops to 6-3 after this matchup. Sure, I'd have to score a metric shit ton of points, but I have the matchups to make it possible. I just need the Det/Jac and Den/Cin games to be shootouts and not 13-10 nap excuses. Come on, points!

On the other side, Andy will continue to limit McCoy because he's Andy, Houston's giant lead will limit Spiller's chances, and Anquan Boldin is an old man even though he's 29 or something. I just need to avoid Chicago Bear defensive TDs.

THE PICK: ISIS 105 - ABBADABBA'S 103


ANIMAL HOUSE (4-4) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-4)
If you just glance at the scoreboard, you see Animal House up 20.7-0 and think they're on their way to a blowout. But when you see that it actually required 3 players to combine for those 20 points, and then you see that Animal House has no quarterback this week, maybe things aren't quite so rosy.

Speaking of which, are we finally, FINALLY done thinking Ryan Mathews is good? He has no vision, he goes down extremely easily on contact and his only good run last night (about 30 yards) came after Mathews buried his head, ran into a defender but somehow that guy had him but fell down without tackling, and then Mathews bounced wide left. He is not good, okay? Can we please be done with this?

Speaking of not good, it looks like Larry's fraud tour will continue. He's going to struggle to crack 70 and will still move to 5-4. Must. Be. Nice.

THE PICK: THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 69 - ANIMAL HOUSE 48


THE KNIGHT WHO SAYS NI (2-6) vs. OUT FOR REVENGE (2-6)
Now that Foster won't be hitting the draft next year, what are these two teams even playing for? Pride? That's long gone with these two shit shows. And The Knight is STILL not playing Justin Blackmon! Put him in the goddamn lineup already! Detroit is terrible and Jacksonville is ripe for a home dog upset! You really want to play LaRod Stephens-Howling and Josh Gordon THAT badly?!

You know...this Revenge team is not that bad on paper. Or at least in name recognition. This game is not going to be very close.

THE PICK: OUT FOR REVENGE 91 - THE KNIGHT WHO SAYS NI 65


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-1) vs. CHEST ROCKWELL (4-4)
Chest has Vick, Tebow and Nick Foles as quarterbacks, easily giving him the league lead in talk radio mentions. For the Kangaroo quarterback (KQB), Bri has expressed confidence in keeping Cam long term, and yet is not starting him against a pretty terrible Redskin pass defense. It's an action louder than words type deal right there. I would definitely be starting Cam, especially because as a home dog coming off a bye, Cincy is ripe for the upset special this week.

But it probably won't matter which QB Bri actually starts, since he has an advantage at every other position this week.

THE PICK: THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 107 -  CHEST ROCKWELL 88


MR. RODGERS NEIGHBORHOOD (4-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEA MONSTER (2-6)
MRN, a team that currently leads their division and is ostensibly fighting for a playoff spot, is starting Felix Jones, Kendall Wright, and Andre Roberts this week. He's also starting both Lions wide receivers. And of course, Aaron Rodgers. So the entirety of his lineup can be broken up thusly:

3 - Guys who are not that good and are facing good defenses in games their teams will most likely lose
2 - Receivers from a totally overrated team that is ripe for a road upset in Jacksonville
1 - Great quarterbacks who could be limited by the great pass defense they face this week
0 - Chances of winning

So there you go, Tim! I'm picking your third win of the year.

THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEA MONSTER 79 - MR. RODGERS NEIGHBORHOOD 55


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (6-2) vs. MOTHER OF DRAGONS (4-4)
Two defensive TDs helped the Chargers avoid an upset on Thursday night (wow, is Matt Cassel bad), and they might help Gary pull off his own upset this week. James Jones, as mentioned above, is not cracking the lineup, but you can't put a price on his moral support. (FYI, James Jones will score 13 points on Gary's bench this week for sure)

McFadden will be limited by a tough Tampa run defense, and Harvin could struggle against Seattle, but Rice and Ryan should be able to make up the difference.

Morris and Bush will be nice for Scott, but no kicker and two DST TDS against is just too much for one man to make up. It's just too much!

THE PICK: MOTHER OF DRAGONS 93 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 85

No comments: