Friday, October 24, 2014

AFFL Week 8 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 22-21


LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-3) vs. ISIS (3-4)

Only last week, when I was projected to score 97.1 points, have the CBS gurus tabbed me for under 100 points. My team has fallen short of my weekly projections by 2, 29, 39, 8, 34, 6, and 34 points. Not once have I met or exceeded expectations. Now, of course CBS' fantasy projections are just as worthless as any other site's, so I don't have much support for this argument, but I think this shows that I am not the only person wildly overrating my players.

Don't get me wrong, overvaluing my players is a hallmark of my fantasy teams across every year and every sport. I look at these guys like a mother whose son is on trial for aggravated assault, certain that everybody else is just overlooking the good and potential in him.

Point is, I am fucking duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuue.

I didn't pick up Matt Ryan for this game, and I don't like him to do much this week. The Lions D is good, and if Ryan struggles away from Atlanta, I can only imagine how much he'll struggle away from America.

(TRUTH: I picked up Matt Ryan because he is at home against the Steelers in Week 15, whereas Kaepernick is playing Seattle. I still fully expect to need Ryan in that Week 15 game, and not because I'll be gunning for 7th place in La Liga Losere.)

Lacy, Miller, and Bell all have plus matchups, and if Revis shadows Marshall, Alshon should be wide open all day long. LBJ has Rodgers throwing the ball, but if Cobb catches enough of those, it's an offsetting win for me. And if the Bengals DST can post a single point, I'll consider that one of life's little victories. It's just a shame that we can't run a 1920s era 4 running back offense, and I'll be forced to let Ingram's points just ferment on the bench.

Aaron Rodgers will be straight slingin' it dog against the terrible Saints defense, and Ellington will certainly get loose for a long play or two against the Eagles, but Edelman, Watkins, and Gronk will be quiet enough as to not cause any fuss. The real concern is that DeSean Jackson will certainly get loose for a long one against Dallas on MNF, simply because he always does. But I'm not sure that means Colt McCoy can actually get the ball all the way down there to him.

Being in the ISIS front office this season has been like having a father who's a compulsive gambler. Last week, he lost everything on a 3-1 lock of a horse and we ate uncooked rice for dinner all week because that's all we could afford. This week, he cashes in major fashion and we get a new puppy. Everything is great again!

THE PICK: ISIS 102 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 81


IT'S ALWAYS RUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA (5-2) vs. LOTHBROK (3-4)

This game technically started last night, though you might not be able to tell from the 5 - 2.3 score. Brandon McManus would be the best kicker in fantasy if extra points were worth 3 points, but as it is, he only scored 5. That still more than doubled Julius Thomas, however.

Gary could've had more points last night, of course, but he decided to keep Keenan Allen on the bench, thereby losing his 13.3 points. Now, I know that Gary likes Keenan Allen, because when I offered Joique Bell for Keenan and a pick, he turned me down flat. Why you turn down a trade offer for a guy you won't even play is beyond me. (Bri is getting mad right now)

Anyway, I'm sure that having Darren McFadden in the starting lineup instead is a good and wise decision and will work out perfectly. McFadden and Forsett are Gary's starting RBs this week, and you told somebody in August those two guys would be in a starting lineup in Week 8, people would've thought we had a 32 team league. But here we are.

Even Andrew Luck shredding the Steelers for 380 yards and 3 TDs this week isn't going to be enough for Gary to pull out a win. I was at the Monday Night game, and the Steelers didn't even mess up a single chin whisker on Fitzpatrick, so you can only imagine what Luck will be able to do with that much time and space.

Brian Barker continues to chase last week's points, grabbing Doug Baldwin and putting him into the starting lineup, but he has figured out how to lead a division without actually scoring any points, so I guess he knows what he's doing. As tempting it would be to point out that Russell Wilson scored 32-9-35 in his last 3 games and then assuming he'll have 8 this week, I'm not sure we should bet against Wilson anymore. He's going into Cam's house to out-Cam Cam.

Bradshaw should be delightful against the Steelers putrid defense, especially with Richardson out, but the rest of this lineup is blah, just like it has been since the season began. So we're now left to figure out which person with That 70s Score gets the wholly undeserved win.

Let's go with...Gary.

THE PICK: LOTHBROK 71 - IT'S ALWAYS RUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA 68


ASSTANNER (3-4) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-3)

I may have to recant my initial displeasure with the Cutler/Hilton/Ridley trade, if only because of what T.Y Hilton is going to do to the Steelers this week with Reggie Wayne out of the lineup. This week, the T.Y. stands for Thank You! (hold for laughter)

Sure, he'll still end up wishing he had kept his first round pick after he misses the playoffs, but for this week at least, things are looking good on that trade review. It took two weeks, but Chris finally gets McCoy in the lineup. Unfortunately it's on the road in Arizona, so don't expect McCoy to score even half of the 35 points Chris let go last week by trading Russell Wilson.

Denard Robinson is a starting running back, but let's not get too excited about it just yet. Miami will shut that shit down with ease this week. I'm not sure I'm supposed to say anything about Dwayne Allen and Brandon LaFell right now, because I find it hard to believe those guys are actually in a starting lineup.

Hey, here's something. Chris is currently paying salary or has paid salary this year on 31 different players. That's the highest number in the league, along with Runny. Credit to Chris for managing to stay under the cap while being the day trader of the league. Further credit to Chris for realizing that something is wrong with his team and needs to change. Discredit to Chris for not being able to figure out what it is. $0.19 burned on Andre Holmes for 1 start and 3 points. $0.18 on John Brown to sit on the bench for 1 game while scoring 0.4 points. $0.33 burned on the Bills defense for a spot start during the Eagles' bye week. Now, technically, that Bills start was good move, since the Bills posted 10 points last week. However, since Chris only posted 47 as a whole, it mattered not.

The most moves, the fewest total points, a 3-4 record. Nothing could be more Chris, nothing could be more AFFL.

Conversely, Scotty Dick Meyers only has 13 salaries on his ledger. His only transaction since the season started was cutting David Wilson, and that was only because his career ended. Almost being paralyzed is what it takes to get Scott to cut you. That is true loyalty to your employees. Or it's a sign that he's mentally checked out for the season. I mean, there has to be SOME reason he still has Jon Grimes on his team.

Maybe Grimes is the team's lucky charm, because Animal House is absolutely moving to 5-3 and taking firm control of the Eastern after this one.

THE PICK: ANIMAL HOUSE 101 - ASSTANNER 62


HGAC (5-2) vs. RIGGINS' RIGGS (2-5)

If Barker has been outside in a thunderstorm before and not been struck by lightning, I would be amazed. His luck in this league is so bad that I would just assume that it carries over to his general life.

This game features the two highest-scoring teams in the league, yet they have inverse records. HGAC raced out to a 28.6 - 0 lead thanks to Rivers and Demaryius playing last night, and while DT only scoring 10 seems like a lucky break, Barker leaving Gates and his 17.4 on the bench more than offsets that. With Graham still Questionable and not likely to be a full participant against Green Bay, that move might sting a bit.

Here's the good news. Barker will go into 2015 with Josh Gordon, Graham, Dez, Jordy, and Forte already on the card. He's going to have a top 2 pick by all probability, and Scott's pick that he also gets is going to roll in somewhere between #5 and #8. If Barker can resist the urge to draft rookie kickers in the 2nd round, his team is going to be stacked, racked, and jacked from the back. (Note: Surprised that Guy Fieri hasn't yet described a deep fried jalapeno bacon cheddar burger with that phrase.)

In fact, once another loss this week officially notarizes the end of 2014 for him, he could go into the Week 9 transaction freeze week with fire sale intentions, looking for even more picks in 2015. Now, in the past, he has taken aim at certain other owners in the league who spread their players across the league like dandelion spores. The criticism, if I recall, was that said transactions unduly affected the remaining team still vying for the title, and so I am sure that the captain will go down will the ship here and hold on to all of his players. I mean, who wants to be a hypocrite?

THE PICK: HGAC 101 - RIGGINS RIGGS 75


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEA MONSTERS (3-4)

The Thursday Night game has just been toying with Larry lately. I certainly hope he has not been going out to the Golden Hood or whatever and watching this stuff in public.

Last week, it was him leaving Vereen's 23 points on the bench, but that being offset by HGAC leaving Ivory on the bench, washing it all out.

This week, he watched Emanuel Sanders have the game we all dream about. Three TDs, 30 points. Problem is, those 3 TDs came from Peyton, who is currently owned by Tim, as you may know. Another 13.8 from Hillman, a fairly disappointing night from Brandon Oliver, and this game is 36.9-35.3. In other words, a lot of fun last night that was ultimately meaningless. Speaking of Hillman, his hyperspeed through each gap last night really illustrated just how much Montee Ball sucks.

Romo will torch Washington and Vereen should be fine against the Bears, but Gio, Julio, and the Packers all have problematic matchups. Such a shame those 30 points from Sanders weren't able to stretch this lead out a bit.

As for Tim's team this week, first of all, let us all give thanks that his only Lion or Falcon is the DET DST, so we won't have to deal with some 10 email chain Sunday at 12:45pm about how he meant to start somebody, but didn't realize the game started at 9:30am and that he thinks he should credit for those 11 points and that we're all dikks.

Tim insists on starting Fitz again for some reason this week, and who am I to question starting a guy who's had 5 points or less in 5 of his 6 games this year? I mean, why would you want to start your franchise player against Oakland? Okay, okay, I understand that the argument there is that his franchise player also sucks. You got me!

Speaking of, I hope Tim sent Scott a tahnk yoo email last night for the Geno Smith move. Now Tim no longer has the worst franchise player in the league! What a nice favor Scott did for his friend there.

Anyway, Floyd will catch another touchdown this week against that porous Eagles secondary, but let's cool out with Tre Mason a little bit, huh? Benjamin is great, and Seattle is struggling, but let's see the young buck do something against a good secondary before we go wild. The DET DST, facing ATL in the UK, has a chance to be Tim's 2nd-best scorer this week.

You know, I'm old enough to remember when the Steelers sacked quarterbacks, and The Whitechapel Rippers won games. I'm saying it, this week is Throwback Sunday! TBS!

THE PICK: THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 80 - SIGMUND AND THE SEA MONSTERS 77


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (4-3)

First, let me just say this. Weeks ago, when we were discussing potential trades, Scott kept offering me AP. I guess hoping I hadn't read the news in like 6 weeks? I told him I could trade him somebody he could franchise, like AJ or Calvin, if only he had something to offer me besides a 2-year waiting period for a return. He said he might just franchise Geno.

Now, I desperately wanted to report this in the previews, but I didn't because I didn't want to scare Scott off from actually doing it. Also, I thought maybe it was a test to see if I would believe just any old thing that he said.

When I saw the first email come in releasing AP, I was giddy with excitement. Would it be? Could it true? Would he really franchise Geno?

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh yessssssssssssssssssss!

Great.

So, so great.

Such great stuff.

The only way it could've been better is if he franchised the Ravens defense.

Geno Smith. The man who almost got benched for Vick, even though Vick has openly admitted he doesn't really want to play, you know, in an actual game or anything. The man who currently has fewer points than Fitzpatrick, Austin Davis, and Kirk Cousins.

Now, it is a true statement that Geno Smith will only cost like $0.44 next season, so having him franchised isn't that big of a deal. And ordinarily I would say, hey man, nice point. Thanks for participating. And ordinarily you could say he can draft somebody next year and just replace Geno in the FP spot. And then I would say, perhaps you have forgotten the Trade of the Millennium(TM)? And then we would have a great laugh, realizing that Scott is going into next season with Geno, Sankey, Kendall Wright, and a lot of free time on draft night.

Oh man.

By the way, Scott beat me last week because I only scored 64 points, is currently 4-3, and has an excellent chance reach 5-3 because he is facing the dessicated corpse of Brian Williams' team.

FULL DISCLOSURE: Bri tried to pull off a trade with me this week, but we couldn't agree on a deal that we both liked. I will admit that I was probably unreasonably optimistic about the value of my players. On the other hand, it's pretty obvious that Bri is desperate for warm bodies this week. Khiry Robinson will likely miss this game, Zac Stacy lost his job, and Hakeem Nicks is probably dead. Sure, I was jacking up prices like an unethical hardware store after a hurricane, but this is America, baby! Also, I was kinda tickled by the idea of Bri actually trotting this roster out for a game this week if we didn't make a trade.

I mean, look at this fucking matchup. LOOK AT IT! This teams are so awful. Just repulsive. If either one of them reaches 60 this week, it would be a Rudyesque inspiration. It would be the #1 story on Upworthy Tuesday morning. And yet, there is an extremely realistic possibility than the winner of this game ends up leading his division. Hell, Bri could lose and still be in his division race at 3-5.

These teams. This game. God, it makes me feel like a musical savant who's still playing bars while Maroon 5 sells out arenas. Life is unfair.

THE PICK: TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 58 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 39

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