True, it may be a bit bold to put predictions down on virtual paper when there are still sooooo many good players that need to be cut before the deadline, but all of your cuts and contracts are just as bad and predictable as your draft picks, so I feel reasonably confident I'll get it right.
That's right, everybody! I am quite pleased with my team this season, unlike last draft, and so I am once again ready to tear apart your teams with vim and vigor as I cruise to the playoffs once more.
DEAD DROP DIVISION
TEAM: Heisenberg
Per the least consequential rule change in league history, Gary gets to rename the division he won last season and even though the term "dead drop" applies more to The Americans than Breaking Bad, here it is any way.
Gary had two amusing moments leading up to the draft. First, when I emailed him that I had sent 5th, 10th, and 11th to Brian Barker for the 1st pick, he refused to believe it for about 5-6 emails. I finally had to explain that I meant that these were all 1st round picks, and not 5th round, 10th round, and 11th round. That was mildly amusing. The tremendously amusing moment was Gary claiming that he had ranked 90-95 players and was more ready for this draft than any other.
Even if true, all that ranking work led to Gary drafting Larry Fitzgerald in the 2nd and Marshawn Lynch in the 4th, two guys that he didn't exactly need a fresh copy of Street & Smith's to have heard of before the draft.
Gary will trot out the 3 RB power O all season and he should be above .500 barring injuries, but it's a pretty thin bench if he needs to turn to CJ Anderson or Crowell or Lynch. Though with over $3 of cap space, he could take a page from Chris and ship out 2019 picks in exchange for high-priced stars and make a really title run this season.
Kamara will be extended to a 3-year deal, so you all have one more year before Gary needs to clear out Freeman in order to franchise Kamara and starts asking for 3 first-round picks in exchange for Freeman.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Yes, but spoiler alert, Heisenberg dies at the end of Breaking Bad.
TEAM: The Dude Has Got No Mercy
Let me put this on the record up front. I think Barkley is the next Marshall Faulk, and I happily would've traded AJ Green and Carlos Hyde (the guys I gave up for 2018 1st round picks) for him. As for the 3 guys Brian Barker got with the 3 picks I gave him for Barkley...uh, yeah, I would've done that as well.
In fact, I would've taken Alex Collins at 10, so still getting him at 14 was a bonus. Double in fact, between Barkley, Collins, Royce Freeman, and Carson, this is the first time I have RB depth. No hoping a sleeper breaks out, no hoping a starter gets hurt so my guy gets carries, actual, genuine, good ol' American horsepower in the backfield. It's a neat feeling. I enjoy it.
Oh, by the way, I also have Brees and Beckham, and somebody is going to step up as a WR2, whether it's Golladay, Brown, or Anderson. Or perhaps Jamison Crowder, who will catch 120 crossing routes from Alex Smith this season.
I know you don't want to hear it. I know you don't want to believe it. I know you'll try to deny it. But I am absolutely going to storm through this league this year.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: If I don't clinch a playoff bye, that would be considered an upset. (Division winner)
TEAM: WTTK?
I have to tread lightly here because McCamey seems like he's actual mad at me, not fun mad. Of course, he's also pretty adamant that he'll never, ever read this so I guess I could just say whatever I want, but this try some diplomatic dignity for a change.
Actually, it's too bad he won't read this because McCamey's draft was a pleasant surprise. Gordon over Julio at #3 was a bit of surprise, but I don't hate it. Davante was a nice grab at #6, and although I hope Cooper Kupp was a joke pick at #17, Hogan is a good grab at #18.
With Henry and Mixon returning under contract, McCamey has a pretty solid starting lineup each week and he'll be competitive as long as those guys are around and kicking. If he loses any of his starters, though, whether to bye weeks or shredded tendons, he's going to be in trouble because he has absolutely no bench depth whatsoever.
Of the 5 cuts he needs to make to get his roster street legal for opening day, let's assume he cuts both bench kickers and QBs, and then Nyheim Hines who is a speedster project who keeps fumbling, ie, the type of guy that never works out in the NFL. That still leaves him with two rookie RBs sharing touches with 6 other guys, a rookie WR on a team with 5 other options, and DeSean Jackson. McCamey should be lighting church candles weekly praying that his starters can keep it together all year long.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Before the draft, I expected this division to be a big slice of cold cake for me, and now it has 3 playoff teams? What the hell?
TEAM: Sigmund and the Seamonster
Timmy was actually online before that draft started, typed something into the chat window, and still managed to take 6:37 to make his first pick. How? How does this happen?
Tim drafted Jimmy Garoppollo in the 3rd round, a respectable pick that left only two teams (me and Gary) without a quarterback. So naturally he followed that up with Alex Smith in the 7th and Matthew Stafford in the 12th. Every year, Tim drafts multiple QBs in the hopes of trading one before the season starts, and every year he ends up cutting them before the season starts. I want to say he'll learn, but...
He also drafted two kickers, one of whom is on the Browns and the other who is a cheap rookie, but currently battling a groin injury.
Now, to be fair, Tim made a good grab of Anthony Miller in the 6th round, and it's hard to see anybody who was drafted behind those QBs and Ks obviously breaking out this year, but Tim is essentially heading into this season with 3 good players, and that's assuming Hunt can follow up his rookie breakout and that Howard has an amazing year that justifies his exorbitant salary.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: This team isn't terrible by normal standards, and it's decent by Tim standards, but it's not a playoff team.
CENTRAL DIVISION
TEAM: Asstanner
As this division's defending champ, Chris also renamed his division, although renaming it from Eastern to Central isn't the most clever thing I ever saw. As usual, Chris' team looks absolutely horrendous in the unforgiving post-draft morning light, but the only thing we know about this roster compared to Week 8 is that he's going to have to cut DeMarco Murray, who retired.
So let me bring this up again, since you all blew it last season. If we all band together, collude, if you will, and refuse to trade any of our players for Chris' 2019 picks, we can all sit back and chuckle while he goes 2-12. It'll be really, really fun and really, really worth it, and if makes any of you feel bad for some bizarre reason, you can go back to trading for his picks next season. Just this once, stay strong, comrades!
Man, look at this roster. Look at how bad it is.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: No, not if you can all manage to do the right thing.
TEAM: Little Baby Jesus
Semi got great value to start the draft, with Julio falling into his lap, and 3rd round pick Peyton Barber looking more and more like a real starter with every passing day. Allen Robinson was a stretch in the 2nd round, but he could come back and rediscover his potential in a new, fun offense and become worth the reach.
The problem is, Semi doesn't have a second starting running back. Even if he starts Week 1, Booker won't start Week 2, Rob Kelley has no chance, and Ty Montgomery is going to be moved back to WR soon. And I can tell Semi from personal experience that the 1-4 offense looks really tempting before the season starts, and then you watch Tyreek Hill not live up to last year's performance or Corey Davis put up a 2-point week because he's not going to break out this year either and things get very frustrating very quickly.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Going with the innovative 21st-century 1-4 offense doesn't work when Peyton Barber is the 1 and most of the 4 are lottery tickets.
TEAM: The Whitechapel Rippers
Larry has been threatening to quit the league for 5 years now, and while Gary thinks it's because he pronounced Larry's last name as "Shat" until like 2 years ago, I think it's more because he's finished 8th, 12th, 5th, 6th, and 9th the past 5 years. Not bad enough to land great picks and rebuild, not good enough to compete, and not being sure until too close to the roster freeze to ship guys out for picks. He's just...there. I'd say he's the Dolphins of our league, but they made the playoffs two years ago.
HOWEVER. You take a big trade for David Johnson last year, throw it in a Dutch oven with a crafty waiver wire grab of an injured Dalvin Cook, stir in some veteran receivers and young, cheap quarterbacks, and braise the whole thing with some patience...and this might just be the year.
Evans isn't quite as good or as consistent as his reputation would suggest, but he's still decent enough and Landry is going to catch 100 balls. If Larry can manage to start/sit Marvin Jones properly, he'll have a solid receiving corps to go with potentially 2 top-10 backs. There are worse ways to manage a roster. Many demonstrations of which can be found in this league, actually.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Somebody has to win this division, right? (Division winner)
TEAM: Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends
Two facts cannot be denied. Scott won the title last year (According to the league history, at least. I really have no recollection of 2017's boring ass season.), and he leads the league in Most Guys Under Contract Even Though They're Not On An Active Roster. Dez Bryant on a 2/2 $2.30 deal right now is at least the third time I remember this happening to Scott recently. Also, he somehow has Kendall Wright on his team for like the 5th straight year.
It cannot be denied that Scott won it all in 2013 and 2017, and finished 2nd in 2016. It also cannot be denied that he finished DFL in 2006, 2008, 2015, and was 2nd to last in 2002 and 2009. He's a high-variance owner, is what I'm saying here. It's like having a professional gambler for a dad. Sometimes you get a new game console and HDTV for your birthday, and sometimes he pretends it's not actually Christmas morning and that's why there are no presents under the tree which is actually a bush.
Following the draft, Scott taunted the league that we had all made a grave mistake in "allowing" him to redraft most of his 2016 players. As if we were the ones making the mistake by not jumping on Roethlisberger, Kendall Wright, or AP. Also following the draft, he made me a trade offer for Odell. The offer was his 2019 2nd round pick, plus any of his 2019 "drafted" players. I replied, accurately, that it was one of the worst offers I had ever seen. I mean, if you're going to grant me the privilege of taking James White from your team, a guy I could've drafted myself at any point and intentionally did not, at least throw in a first rounder.
To be certain, there will be weeks in which Fournette and AB alone combine for enough points for Scott to beat some chump that only posted a 47. That's not going to happen 10 times, though.
Reminder: Scott only won the title last year because Gary only managed to put up 55 points in the Albert Bowl. 55!
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: On the roller coaster that is Scott's season history chart, this will be one of the steep down slopes.
WESTERN DIVISION
TEAM: Animal House
Between Le'Veon, Michael Thomas, and McCaffrey, Meyers might have come into the draft with the best contract situation of any team in the league. Feeling plush and comfortable, Meyers went into the draft with a strategy of taking the best player available in the 1st round, getting the QB he needed in the 2nd round, and then taking any Steeler he could in any round after that. Mission accomplished, I suppose.
Each week, Meyers is going to have one roster spot that isn't quite perfect. If he can figure out the proper starter between Jamaal Williams, JuJu, Sterling Shepherd, or Mark Ingram, he could be practically unbeatable. But honestly, that's a little bit like worrying if Ringo's drum kit is the proper color. With his regular rotation of Bell, Brady, CMC, Thomas, and AJ, there's a really good chance Meyers puts up like 140 points in one magical week this season.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: It will be an honor for me to share the bye week with a team like this. (Division winner)
TEAM: RussellMania
LeSean McCoy as the #5 pick is a McCamey/Gary/Tim-level mistake. I am aware that this year's draft only had 4 sure things and whomever had the 5th pick needed to make the first reach, but I mean...when the Bills are losing 30-13 in the second half and Nathan Peterman hits McCoy in the ankle with a swing pass, Shady is going to be HOPING Gooddell suspends him for 6 games.
Beyond that, the guys on this team are mainly known for getting hurt or missing games. Gronkowski, Keenan Allen, Doctson, Josh Gordon, Dion Lewis, Burkhead. This roster is going to look like the battlefield in Gone With The Wind by Week 6. Or, if you will, the Simpsons' yard after they got that trabopaline.
There was a little talk around the draft table that the Western division was shaping up to be the toughest in the league this year. I think the Barker boys might've lessened that load a little bit.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Neither of LeSean McCoy's teams this year are getting anywhere near the playoffs.
TEAM: The Night Boys
If you're wondering why Dak is still TNB'S FP even though he sucks, you should know that at the draft, Barker said he likes Dak. We'll see if that opinion holds up through this season.
When Barker sent out his hype man email offering up all of his recently-drafted players in exchange for 2019 picks, I did wonder why he was looking to unload so many good, cheap players. Then I took a real look at this roster. Although, if this is the team you just put together with 2018 picks, I'm not sure the point of looking for 2019 picks. Maybe just ask for cash or cans of Cope instead. Something you can actually USE.
That said, with the cap room he's certain to have post-cuts, and the number of teams desperate for backfield help, Barker could be a couple of interesting trades away from putting together a team that...goes nearly .500. Eh, what's the point?
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: TNB's best finish in the past 5 seasons is 7th. This is not his best team in 6 years.
TEAM: That Kangaroo Stole My Ball
Bri is not going to give up Cam for less than a 1st round pick. Bri is not going to stop trying to move Cam so he can eventually franchise DeShaun or Gurley. Bri is not going to get a first round pick.
I really liked McKinnon coming into this draft and even though I have injury concerns like everybody else, I think that was a good pick for Bri. If McKinnon comes anywhere near his summer hype, he and Gurley will make for a pretty incredible backfield. Lamar Miller is probably underrated right now and so Bri should be rolling out 3 RB lineups week in and week out. One small concern is that right now Travis Kelce is Bri's best receiver and he's a tight end.
Now, far be it from me to give other teams good advice on ways that they can help themselves, but I bet Bri and Semi could work out a Rodgers + WR for Cam + RB deal. Bri can 1/x Rodgers and get some WR help while moving Cam, and then Semi can sit on Cam for a couple of years until he wants to franchise Tyreek or Julio. The only problem I see with this deal is that it's technically my idea and both of them will be loathe to do anything that makes me look smart.
That would be a really good deal, though.
CHRIS BERMAN PLAYING THAT CLIP OF JIM MORA SAYING "PLAYOFFS?!!?" FOR THE 10,000TH TIME: Will make the playoffs, but could potentially win this division with the bold flavor of that Rodgers trade.
PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS (PRE-DRAFT)
1) Animal House
2) The Whitechapel Rippers
3) The One Who Knocks
4) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball
5) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends
6) Asstanner
7) WTTK?
8) Russellmania
9) Little Baby Jesus
10) Sigmund and the Seamonsters
11) The Dude Has Got No Mercy
12) The Night Boys
PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS (POST-DRAFT)
1) Animal House
2) The Dude Has Got No Mercy
3) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball
4) Heisenberg
5) WTTK?
6) The Whitechapel Rippers
7) Little Baby Jesus
8) Russellmania
9) The Night Boys
10) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends
11) Sigmund and the Seamonster
12) Asstanner
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Sunday, August 19, 2018
2018 AFFL Mock Draft (4 Rounds)
I wasn't going to do this originally because I didn't want to spill any of my clever secrets in the first round, but now that my first pick is much more obvious, let's do this.
ROUND 1
1) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Saquon Barkley RB
2) The Night Boys - DeAndre Hopkins WR
3) WTTK? - Kenyan Drake RB
4) Little Baby Jesus - Julio Jones WR
5) Russellmania - Melvin Gordon RB
6) WTTK? - Cooper Kupp WR
7) Animal House - Davante Adams WR
8) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - AJ Green WR (Autodrafted after 5 minute limit expires)
9) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - LeSean McCoy RB
10) Russellmania - Lamar Miller RB
11) Russellmania - Stefon Diggs WR
12) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Jarvis Landry WR
ROUND 2
13) The Night Boys - Alex Collins RB
14) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Amari Cooper WR
15) The Whitechapel Rippers - Larry Fitzgerald WR
16) Little Baby Jesus - Rex Burkhead RB
17) WTTK? - Tom Brady QB
18) WTTK? - Jimmy Garropolo QB
19) Animal House - Andrew Luck QB
20) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Jerick McKinnon RB
21) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Golden Tate WR
22) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Robby Anderson WR
23) Heisenberg - Derius Guice RB (Didn't know he tore out his ACL)
24) The Whitechapel Rippers - Michael Crabtree WR
ROUND 3
25) The Night Boys - Mark Ingram RB
26) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Sammy Watkins WR
27) Russellmania - Chris Carson RB
28) Little Baby Jesus - Kenny Golladay WR
29 The Whitechapel Rippers - Tyrell Williams WR
30) WTTK? - Rob Gronkowski TE
31) Animal House - Dion Lewis RB
32) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - Tevin Coleman (5 minute limit expires again but he is driving to a place with wi-fi right now!)
33) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Marvin Jones WR
34) The Night Boys - Demaryius Thomas WR
35) Little Baby Jesus - Devontae Booker RB
36) The Whitechapel Rippers - Royce Freeman RB
ROUND 4
37) The Night Boys - Alex Smith QB
38) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Allen Robinson WR
39) Russellmania - Tarik Cohen RB
40) Russellmania - Travis Kelce TE
41) The Whitechapel Rippers - Marquise Goodwin WR
42) WTTK? - Jordy Nelson WR
43) Animal House - Jamaal Williams RB
44) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - Drew Brees QB (Pick made in 12 seconds)
45) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Emanuel Sanders WR
46) WTTK? - James Washington WR
47) Heisenberg - Marshawn Lynch RB
48) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends - Stephen Gostkowski K
ROUND 1
1) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Saquon Barkley RB
2) The Night Boys - DeAndre Hopkins WR
3) WTTK? - Kenyan Drake RB
4) Little Baby Jesus - Julio Jones WR
5) Russellmania - Melvin Gordon RB
6) WTTK? - Cooper Kupp WR
7) Animal House - Davante Adams WR
8) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - AJ Green WR (Autodrafted after 5 minute limit expires)
9) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - LeSean McCoy RB
10) Russellmania - Lamar Miller RB
11) Russellmania - Stefon Diggs WR
12) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Jarvis Landry WR
ROUND 2
13) The Night Boys - Alex Collins RB
14) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Amari Cooper WR
15) The Whitechapel Rippers - Larry Fitzgerald WR
16) Little Baby Jesus - Rex Burkhead RB
17) WTTK? - Tom Brady QB
18) WTTK? - Jimmy Garropolo QB
19) Animal House - Andrew Luck QB
20) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Jerick McKinnon RB
21) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Golden Tate WR
22) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Robby Anderson WR
23) Heisenberg - Derius Guice RB (Didn't know he tore out his ACL)
24) The Whitechapel Rippers - Michael Crabtree WR
ROUND 3
25) The Night Boys - Mark Ingram RB
26) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Sammy Watkins WR
27) Russellmania - Chris Carson RB
28) Little Baby Jesus - Kenny Golladay WR
29 The Whitechapel Rippers - Tyrell Williams WR
30) WTTK? - Rob Gronkowski TE
31) Animal House - Dion Lewis RB
32) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - Tevin Coleman (5 minute limit expires again but he is driving to a place with wi-fi right now!)
33) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Marvin Jones WR
34) The Night Boys - Demaryius Thomas WR
35) Little Baby Jesus - Devontae Booker RB
36) The Whitechapel Rippers - Royce Freeman RB
ROUND 4
37) The Night Boys - Alex Smith QB
38) The Dude Has Got No Mercy - Allen Robinson WR
39) Russellmania - Tarik Cohen RB
40) Russellmania - Travis Kelce TE
41) The Whitechapel Rippers - Marquise Goodwin WR
42) WTTK? - Jordy Nelson WR
43) Animal House - Jamaal Williams RB
44) Sigmund and the Seamonsters - Drew Brees QB (Pick made in 12 seconds)
45) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball - Emanuel Sanders WR
46) WTTK? - James Washington WR
47) Heisenberg - Marshawn Lynch RB
48) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends - Stephen Gostkowski K
Friday, December 22, 2017
AFFL Bowl Preview
LAST WEEK: 1-1
SEASON: 50-21
Hey, amemmer a few weeks ago when I realized I would've been 10-3 with a bye secured if I had just patiently held my team together? Well, last week with Hyde scoring 3.9, and Thielen and Green each scoring 3, I would've lost my first playoff game with about 65 points. And that's assuming I still would've picked up and started Dion Lewis.
So instead of once again suffering the annual slings and arrows of outrageous playoff fortunes, I traded my players away early and, by opposing, ended them.
Not only that, since you are also so obsessed with playoff performance, I think it can be said that landing two 1st round picks and a 2nd for three guys who combined to score 9.9 points in the semi-final round is some of the best general managing this league has ever seen.
Thank you. I accept your compliments.
I do really hope I win the NIT this week, though.
Now let's find who will be 2017's most fantastic man.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS vs. THE NATIONAL RAZOR
We already talked about how lucky Gary was to have one of his worst weeks during his bye. Last week, he was lucky enough to face Chris, who was running on fumes at that point. Wentz was hurt, and if Zeke just sucked it up instead of burning four appeals, he would've been active by last week, not this week. Chris' kicker scored 0.
The luck continues this week with AB being knocked out of the lineup.
I am fine with either Scott or Gary winning this week. Seriously. They've both been there since the beginning, they try every year, and they make things fun. I prefer Gary's "Kill The Rich" policies over Scott's "Blame Black People For The Problems Thrust Upon Them" policies. Though I don't know where either one of them stand on Selma-killing policies.
From a comedy perspective, picturing Gary being told "You're ruining Christmas!" because he's screaming about a Zach Ertz touchdown that gives Scott the title is pretty good.
Let's go ahead and give this one a full positional breakdown, shall we?
QB
Although the Texans were completed shredded by Bort Blakles last week, we're talking about Road Ben with no AB here. Plus a game the Steelers should win on the road is a problem in the Tomlin era, plus the emotional letdown from last week, plus the pressure from Jacksonville winning on Sunday and getting closer to stealing a bye, plus Martavis definitely dropping at least one long TD pass.
On the other side, the Bills did hold Brady down a couple of weeks ago, but this one is back in Foxboro. He'll get at least 2 TDs. Separately, 5 titles takes the sting out of anything, but the potential that Brady's NE career ends over a dispute involving his quack trainer plus Jimmy GQ becoming the next superstar QB in San Francisco is a really pleasurable thought.
Slight edge to Gary
RB
McCoy is hurt and Fournette is hurt and the Niner rush defense isn't terrible. Melvin Gordon should have a nice matchup against the Jets, but it's the West Coast team flying east for a 1pm start, which is always a problem. Very likely the Chargers come out flat and need to throw in the second half to catch up. That hurts Gordon.
Latavius Murray is absolutely getting one goal line TD this week, if not two. Kamara and Freeman will run wild in what should be a shootout. (PS, ATL has given up the most receiving yards to RBs this year. Kamara is good at receiving yards.) Carlos Hyde, who cost Gary a first round pick, is on the bench.
Significant edge to Gary
WR
Dez vs. Robert Woods and Jarvis Landry. Oof. I wouldn't want to count on any of these guys in a title game. Also, my 2015 theory that superstar WRs and replacement RBs was the way to go was already dissolving because so many good backs were coming into the league, but this WR lineup in the title game officially puts it to rest.
Wash
TE
Scott is the only one starting a tight end, so I guess he wins?
Default edge to Scott
K
Whatever.
Whatever
DST
Oh, interesting, the two defenses from the thrilling Detroit v Cincinnati tilt here. Well, the Bengals have given up completely and their coach has maybe quit or is maybe moving into the front office or is maybe staying on board. They've scored 14 total points the last two weeks. A late pick 6 is very much in play for Detroit.
On the other side, most of Cincy's DST is bad or hurt. They've given up like 60+ points the last two weeks and have scored a total of -1 fantasy point the last two weeks. The Lions very much need this game and will come out hot.
Significant edge to Scott
So there you have it. Gary will go to bed happy on Saturday night because Murray scored like 15 points, Scott won't get within shouting distance on Christmas Eve, and the Christmas night games will just be a formality. Although Gary will somehow talk himself into the possibility of Ben and Ertz combining for 45 more points than Elliott scores, leading to loose and squeaky stress poops while everybody else is eating ham.
The season that began with Gary stressing out over the draft freezing ends with Gary stressing out over a meaningless game, with a lot of Gary stressing out sandwiches in between.
Me, I was figuratively laying in a hammock all season. I really recommend selling off your players after Week 4 for peace of mind.
THE PICK: TNR 107 - TDHAF 83
SEASON: 50-21
Hey, amemmer a few weeks ago when I realized I would've been 10-3 with a bye secured if I had just patiently held my team together? Well, last week with Hyde scoring 3.9, and Thielen and Green each scoring 3, I would've lost my first playoff game with about 65 points. And that's assuming I still would've picked up and started Dion Lewis.
So instead of once again suffering the annual slings and arrows of outrageous playoff fortunes, I traded my players away early and, by opposing, ended them.
Not only that, since you are also so obsessed with playoff performance, I think it can be said that landing two 1st round picks and a 2nd for three guys who combined to score 9.9 points in the semi-final round is some of the best general managing this league has ever seen.
Thank you. I accept your compliments.
I do really hope I win the NIT this week, though.
Now let's find who will be 2017's most fantastic man.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS vs. THE NATIONAL RAZOR
We already talked about how lucky Gary was to have one of his worst weeks during his bye. Last week, he was lucky enough to face Chris, who was running on fumes at that point. Wentz was hurt, and if Zeke just sucked it up instead of burning four appeals, he would've been active by last week, not this week. Chris' kicker scored 0.
The luck continues this week with AB being knocked out of the lineup.
I am fine with either Scott or Gary winning this week. Seriously. They've both been there since the beginning, they try every year, and they make things fun. I prefer Gary's "Kill The Rich" policies over Scott's "Blame Black People For The Problems Thrust Upon Them" policies. Though I don't know where either one of them stand on Selma-killing policies.
From a comedy perspective, picturing Gary being told "You're ruining Christmas!" because he's screaming about a Zach Ertz touchdown that gives Scott the title is pretty good.
Let's go ahead and give this one a full positional breakdown, shall we?
QB
Although the Texans were completed shredded by Bort Blakles last week, we're talking about Road Ben with no AB here. Plus a game the Steelers should win on the road is a problem in the Tomlin era, plus the emotional letdown from last week, plus the pressure from Jacksonville winning on Sunday and getting closer to stealing a bye, plus Martavis definitely dropping at least one long TD pass.
On the other side, the Bills did hold Brady down a couple of weeks ago, but this one is back in Foxboro. He'll get at least 2 TDs. Separately, 5 titles takes the sting out of anything, but the potential that Brady's NE career ends over a dispute involving his quack trainer plus Jimmy GQ becoming the next superstar QB in San Francisco is a really pleasurable thought.
Slight edge to Gary
RB
McCoy is hurt and Fournette is hurt and the Niner rush defense isn't terrible. Melvin Gordon should have a nice matchup against the Jets, but it's the West Coast team flying east for a 1pm start, which is always a problem. Very likely the Chargers come out flat and need to throw in the second half to catch up. That hurts Gordon.
Latavius Murray is absolutely getting one goal line TD this week, if not two. Kamara and Freeman will run wild in what should be a shootout. (PS, ATL has given up the most receiving yards to RBs this year. Kamara is good at receiving yards.) Carlos Hyde, who cost Gary a first round pick, is on the bench.
Significant edge to Gary
WR
Dez vs. Robert Woods and Jarvis Landry. Oof. I wouldn't want to count on any of these guys in a title game. Also, my 2015 theory that superstar WRs and replacement RBs was the way to go was already dissolving because so many good backs were coming into the league, but this WR lineup in the title game officially puts it to rest.
Wash
TE
Scott is the only one starting a tight end, so I guess he wins?
Default edge to Scott
K
Whatever.
Whatever
DST
Oh, interesting, the two defenses from the thrilling Detroit v Cincinnati tilt here. Well, the Bengals have given up completely and their coach has maybe quit or is maybe moving into the front office or is maybe staying on board. They've scored 14 total points the last two weeks. A late pick 6 is very much in play for Detroit.
On the other side, most of Cincy's DST is bad or hurt. They've given up like 60+ points the last two weeks and have scored a total of -1 fantasy point the last two weeks. The Lions very much need this game and will come out hot.
Significant edge to Scott
So there you have it. Gary will go to bed happy on Saturday night because Murray scored like 15 points, Scott won't get within shouting distance on Christmas Eve, and the Christmas night games will just be a formality. Although Gary will somehow talk himself into the possibility of Ben and Ertz combining for 45 more points than Elliott scores, leading to loose and squeaky stress poops while everybody else is eating ham.
The season that began with Gary stressing out over the draft freezing ends with Gary stressing out over a meaningless game, with a lot of Gary stressing out sandwiches in between.
Me, I was figuratively laying in a hammock all season. I really recommend selling off your players after Week 4 for peace of mind.
THE PICK: TNR 107 - TDHAF 83
Friday, December 15, 2017
AFFL Semi-Final Preview
LAST WEEK: 0-2
SEASON: 49-20
This final four has everything from A to B. Three Alberts and one Barker. I thought about ranking the potential champs from least objectionable to most, but every time I came up with a list I realized that, honestly, you could just as easily reverse the list. Simply awful all around. Maybe this is why the steam is leaking from the league. There's never a champion to be happy for, just ones you tolerate.
Also, just to clarify my point about last week since I always have to clarify points for you chucklehead. The issue isn't whether or Gary is good this year, it's that it's so unbelievably lucky that he tanked last week when he had the bye, a bye he just barely earned.
So my point is, as always, that focusing on each year's champ is appealing to simple minds, but a better measure of who's actually good year after year. And yeah, the multiple times I've done that tally I'm in the top third of the league, but not the top. I can't catch Scott, Chris, and Brian Williams.
I'm sure the money is nice, but who wins in a given year is overrated.
With that said, let's find out who might win this year.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS - RUSSELLMANIA
The Pats shut down Ben last year and are certain to bracket AB this weekend. Fournette is likely to sit out this game with a quad problem. Dez Bryant has the speed of a tight end.
On the other side, I saw a stat that since 2014, Julio Jones AVERAGES 27 points against the Bucs. Josh Gordon gets the same Raven secondary that handed 217 yards to AB last week, Keenan Allen gets a Chief secondary that's falling apart, and Alshon gets a Giants team that's quit.
By the first quarter on Monday night, Julio will have sealed this win.
THE PICK: RM 94 - TDHAF 76
ASSTANNER - THE NATIONAL RAZOR
Here's something for Gary to think about
I don't think he'll bomb this week against the Steelers, but next week? When he faces the Bills again? The team that held him to 6.6 fantasy points in Week 13 before he scored 7.7 against the Dolphins?
Now look, I am very much hoping that Carlos Hyde only puts 4 points this week and Gary loses by like 8, meaning the difference between Hyde and guy-worth-a-1st-rounder-in-a-trade-before-he-got-cut CJ Anderson decides this game, but that doesn't seem very likely.
Oh hey, I just realized that 3 of my Week 1 players are in this game. It remains to be seen if Green, Thielen, and Hyde still carry my playoff hex in their DNA.
Anyway, there's no need to keep talking about this one. Brady, Kamara, and Freeman are just going to be too much. Like Julio, Freeman is going to clinch this one early Monday and then just pad the lead.
THE PICK: TNR 90 - AT 80
SEASON: 49-20
This final four has everything from A to B. Three Alberts and one Barker. I thought about ranking the potential champs from least objectionable to most, but every time I came up with a list I realized that, honestly, you could just as easily reverse the list. Simply awful all around. Maybe this is why the steam is leaking from the league. There's never a champion to be happy for, just ones you tolerate.
Also, just to clarify my point about last week since I always have to clarify points for you chucklehead. The issue isn't whether or Gary is good this year, it's that it's so unbelievably lucky that he tanked last week when he had the bye, a bye he just barely earned.
So my point is, as always, that focusing on each year's champ is appealing to simple minds, but a better measure of who's actually good year after year. And yeah, the multiple times I've done that tally I'm in the top third of the league, but not the top. I can't catch Scott, Chris, and Brian Williams.
I'm sure the money is nice, but who wins in a given year is overrated.
With that said, let's find out who might win this year.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS - RUSSELLMANIA
The Pats shut down Ben last year and are certain to bracket AB this weekend. Fournette is likely to sit out this game with a quad problem. Dez Bryant has the speed of a tight end.
On the other side, I saw a stat that since 2014, Julio Jones AVERAGES 27 points against the Bucs. Josh Gordon gets the same Raven secondary that handed 217 yards to AB last week, Keenan Allen gets a Chief secondary that's falling apart, and Alshon gets a Giants team that's quit.
By the first quarter on Monday night, Julio will have sealed this win.
THE PICK: RM 94 - TDHAF 76
ASSTANNER - THE NATIONAL RAZOR
Here's something for Gary to think about
Tom Brady's secret history of fantasy sabotage, exposed:— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) December 12, 2017
2017, Week 14 - 233-1-2
2016, Week 15 - 188-0-0
2015, Week 16 - 231-1-1
2014, Week 16 - 182-1-1
2013, Week 16 - 172-1-0
2010, Week 15 - 163-2-0
2009, Week 15 - 115-1-1
2009, Week 14 - 192-1-1
2007, Week 15 - 140-0-1
I don't think he'll bomb this week against the Steelers, but next week? When he faces the Bills again? The team that held him to 6.6 fantasy points in Week 13 before he scored 7.7 against the Dolphins?
Now look, I am very much hoping that Carlos Hyde only puts 4 points this week and Gary loses by like 8, meaning the difference between Hyde and guy-worth-a-1st-rounder-in-a-trade-before-he-got-cut CJ Anderson decides this game, but that doesn't seem very likely.
Oh hey, I just realized that 3 of my Week 1 players are in this game. It remains to be seen if Green, Thielen, and Hyde still carry my playoff hex in their DNA.
Anyway, there's no need to keep talking about this one. Brady, Kamara, and Freeman are just going to be too much. Like Julio, Freeman is going to clinch this one early Monday and then just pad the lead.
THE PICK: TNR 90 - AT 80
Monday, December 11, 2017
AFFL Wild Card Review
Scott and I were so, so, so close to solving America's racial issues on Sunday, but in the end we unfortunately came up short. Whether failure in this country is individual or structural or what combination thereof still remains to be determined.
Though the role model claims are certainly fascinating to me. Because during the Presidential election and in the months after we were shown profile after profile of white Americans who were failing by typical standards. Poor, addicted to drugs, higher divorce rates, less education, creating shorter life expectancies than any other demographic in the industrial world. Who was telling them it was okay to live this way?!
I hope to soon learn what terrible role models these poor whites in Appalachia and the rural South are taking their cues from. Hopefully not athletes. Maybe their only role models are Violent J, Shaggy 2 Dope, their fellow Juggalos, and Vince McMahon. Why can't they find better role models like...I don't know...activist hedge fund manager Bill Ackman?
Maybe it's simpler. Maybe the first half of the 20th century was dedicated to organizing minorities into certain areas and actively quarantining them, and then the second half was dedicated to diffusing whites out into the rural hinterlands and passively forgetting about them.
Either way, I am sure we will get to the bottom of this in our fantasy football league!
Here's a song for those who have fallen into the Cumberland Gap.
ASSTANNER 85.2 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 76.5
I was wrong. Kenyan Drake is actually pretty good. I don't know how much credit Chris deserves for just blindly picking up a running back after Miami traded the other guy, but I do know that I'm looking forward to drafting Drake next year with Chris' former 1st round pick. Drake is 2018's Jordan Howard, who was 2017's David Johnson, who was 2016's CJ Anderson, who was 2015's Andre Ellington, who was 2014's CJ Spiller.
*Reminder that Semi drafted Ellington two spots ahead of where Bri landed AB.
Bri put up his 4th-worst score of the year and now sees himself out of the playoffs once again. He technically played the wrong QB for a final time, though Cam only outscored Alex Smith by 4 points. Gurley had a huge game, but Ajayi did nothing even though Philly scored 43. He technically made the right choice on defense, since the Steelers had -2 and the Ravens had -2.5
By the way, it looked like Travis Kelce scored a TD, but was ruled down inside the 1 on replay. Conversely, Adam Thielen caught a 10-yard pass and then avoided 3 Panthers over the next 42 yards to score a TD with only 5 minutes left in the game. -6 for Kelce by inches and +11.2 for Thielen by inches and there you have it.
Chris gets to move on, but Jacoby Brissett is now his QB for the rest of the playoffs. FYI, Jacoby Brissett has to face Denver next week. FYI again, Wentz' ACL surgery typically has a 9-12 month recovery period, so he might miss next year, too. At least Wentz was kind enough to put 25 points before leaving for the season. Chris made the right choice to bench Robby Anderson after his hot streak, though Murray and Green just barely outdid Anderson's 2.7.
GARY
Gary is extremely lucky he got a bye this week, because he only scored 50.4 points. What an amazing bit of strategy on his part to not play in the week when Kamara gets hurt and Brady struggles in Miami.
In all seriousness, this is exactly why earning the byes are so important. It's one less chance for bad luck to bite you in the ass.
Bri scores 50 points in Week 12, so he doesn't get a bye and ends up losing in the first round. Gary scores 50 points in Week 14 and he's 1 win from the title game. Clearly Gary is much better at fantasy football than Bri because he has a better sense of timing.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 130.7 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 118.6
Scott might be right that this was one of the best games in AFFL history, but this is so ridiculously unlucky for Tim. It really makes absolutely no sense that he's knocked out of the playoffs even though he outscored a team that "won" by 40. What does this measure except luck?
Credit to Scott for sure, though, for putting up 130 this week. Here are some wild stats for ya. Ben is the only QB with 3 different 500-yard passing games in NFL history. The 223 yards he threw for in THE FOURTH QUARTER would be the 5th-most passing yards allowed in a 2017 game by the Ravens by itself.
McCoy somehow managed to run for 156 yards in 3 feet of snow. Dez shook one shitty arm tackle and ran 50 yards for a TD. Sure, he was as fast as a tight end getting there, but he still got there. The only offensive player who didn't post a TD for Scott was AB, who had 213 yards.
Howard, Hunt, and Hopkins combined for 74 points and Tim still lost. Unbelievable.
I'll still write a preview this week, but could it be more obvious that Scott emptied the tank this week and when Belichick quadruple covers AB, that Barker will beat Scott 70-62 while Gary loses to Chris 101-100?
Though the role model claims are certainly fascinating to me. Because during the Presidential election and in the months after we were shown profile after profile of white Americans who were failing by typical standards. Poor, addicted to drugs, higher divorce rates, less education, creating shorter life expectancies than any other demographic in the industrial world. Who was telling them it was okay to live this way?!
I hope to soon learn what terrible role models these poor whites in Appalachia and the rural South are taking their cues from. Hopefully not athletes. Maybe their only role models are Violent J, Shaggy 2 Dope, their fellow Juggalos, and Vince McMahon. Why can't they find better role models like...I don't know...activist hedge fund manager Bill Ackman?
Maybe it's simpler. Maybe the first half of the 20th century was dedicated to organizing minorities into certain areas and actively quarantining them, and then the second half was dedicated to diffusing whites out into the rural hinterlands and passively forgetting about them.
Either way, I am sure we will get to the bottom of this in our fantasy football league!
Here's a song for those who have fallen into the Cumberland Gap.
ASSTANNER 85.2 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 76.5
I was wrong. Kenyan Drake is actually pretty good. I don't know how much credit Chris deserves for just blindly picking up a running back after Miami traded the other guy, but I do know that I'm looking forward to drafting Drake next year with Chris' former 1st round pick. Drake is 2018's Jordan Howard, who was 2017's David Johnson, who was 2016's CJ Anderson, who was 2015's Andre Ellington, who was 2014's CJ Spiller.
*Reminder that Semi drafted Ellington two spots ahead of where Bri landed AB.
Bri put up his 4th-worst score of the year and now sees himself out of the playoffs once again. He technically played the wrong QB for a final time, though Cam only outscored Alex Smith by 4 points. Gurley had a huge game, but Ajayi did nothing even though Philly scored 43. He technically made the right choice on defense, since the Steelers had -2 and the Ravens had -2.5
By the way, it looked like Travis Kelce scored a TD, but was ruled down inside the 1 on replay. Conversely, Adam Thielen caught a 10-yard pass and then avoided 3 Panthers over the next 42 yards to score a TD with only 5 minutes left in the game. -6 for Kelce by inches and +11.2 for Thielen by inches and there you have it.
Chris gets to move on, but Jacoby Brissett is now his QB for the rest of the playoffs. FYI, Jacoby Brissett has to face Denver next week. FYI again, Wentz' ACL surgery typically has a 9-12 month recovery period, so he might miss next year, too. At least Wentz was kind enough to put 25 points before leaving for the season. Chris made the right choice to bench Robby Anderson after his hot streak, though Murray and Green just barely outdid Anderson's 2.7.
GARY
Gary is extremely lucky he got a bye this week, because he only scored 50.4 points. What an amazing bit of strategy on his part to not play in the week when Kamara gets hurt and Brady struggles in Miami.
In all seriousness, this is exactly why earning the byes are so important. It's one less chance for bad luck to bite you in the ass.
Bri scores 50 points in Week 12, so he doesn't get a bye and ends up losing in the first round. Gary scores 50 points in Week 14 and he's 1 win from the title game. Clearly Gary is much better at fantasy football than Bri because he has a better sense of timing.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 130.7 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 118.6
Scott might be right that this was one of the best games in AFFL history, but this is so ridiculously unlucky for Tim. It really makes absolutely no sense that he's knocked out of the playoffs even though he outscored a team that "won" by 40. What does this measure except luck?
Credit to Scott for sure, though, for putting up 130 this week. Here are some wild stats for ya. Ben is the only QB with 3 different 500-yard passing games in NFL history. The 223 yards he threw for in THE FOURTH QUARTER would be the 5th-most passing yards allowed in a 2017 game by the Ravens by itself.
McCoy somehow managed to run for 156 yards in 3 feet of snow. Dez shook one shitty arm tackle and ran 50 yards for a TD. Sure, he was as fast as a tight end getting there, but he still got there. The only offensive player who didn't post a TD for Scott was AB, who had 213 yards.
Howard, Hunt, and Hopkins combined for 74 points and Tim still lost. Unbelievable.
I'll still write a preview this week, but could it be more obvious that Scott emptied the tank this week and when Belichick quadruple covers AB, that Barker will beat Scott 70-62 while Gary loses to Chris 101-100?
Friday, December 8, 2017
AFFL Wild Card Preview
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 49-18
What an incredible season of picks. 73% correct! Amazing!
I think next year I might start a side pool for us all to pick games and we'll kick in like $10 a piece, winner take all. Of course, only 2 of you will respond to that idea because half of the league are miserable lumps looking for the first excuse to drop their team.
Listen, you don't need an excuse. Just go. We can get by with 10 teams. Hell, having a couple of seasons of an 8-team turbo league where the scores are 150-140 would be fun. This league is so goddamn dull. If you can't be the change the world needs, then go.
ANYWAY
Nice luck for Gary that he had a bye the week Kamara finally didn't score a ton of points. Being smashed in the temple on the first drive will do that to a guy. Truly, the angels are on Gary's shoulders this season.
May the four teams actually playing this week find the strength to keep Satan away from their rosters.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL vs. ASSTANNER
The most beloved owner in the league versus...Chris. It's like the Rooneys against Jerry Jones. Bri is starting Alex Smith, which means Cam will have 25 points this week. On the other hand, each Kelce reception is double points, though scoring 2 TDs in the first quarter will be hard to repeat this week. Crabtree is in great shape with Cooper out and Marcus Peters suspended, but it's hard to have faith in Demaryius with this whole Denver situation. That situation being their 2017 season.
Chris is going 4 wide this week, although Robby Anderson is dealing with a hamstring tweak and Chris Harris, Jr. on Sunday, so he should be held in check. Funchess is dealing with a shoulder injury and AJ Green is dealing with Andy Dalton's existence, so Thielen will need to carry the group here. I do not foresee Kenyan Drake having a second big week in a row, but crazy things have happened to the Pats in prime time in Miami before.
These are playoff teams. There might be four good players in this entire game.
THE PICK: TKSMB 74 - AT 68
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS
Fitting that Tim will have to get past the team with the most insulting name in the league in order to truly make this the Year of Tim. It's like how the Steelers will need to beat the Pats twice to get to the Super Bowl this year. (They need home field advantage to have even a decent chance)
Speaking of the Steelers, their points are always have a governor on the throttle in prime time Baltimore games, so Ben and AB will be down. The Giants are down their best CB, but Dez is a glorified tight end, so don't expect much there. Fournette has the Seattle front 7 to deal with and the Seahawks probably will not respect Bort Blakles too much, so it'll actually become a front 9.
I say Kareem Hunt gets in the end zone for the first time in months and we turn another calendar page in the YEAR OF TIM!
THE PICK: SS 86 - TDHAF 79
SEASON: 49-18
What an incredible season of picks. 73% correct! Amazing!
I think next year I might start a side pool for us all to pick games and we'll kick in like $10 a piece, winner take all. Of course, only 2 of you will respond to that idea because half of the league are miserable lumps looking for the first excuse to drop their team.
Listen, you don't need an excuse. Just go. We can get by with 10 teams. Hell, having a couple of seasons of an 8-team turbo league where the scores are 150-140 would be fun. This league is so goddamn dull. If you can't be the change the world needs, then go.
ANYWAY
Nice luck for Gary that he had a bye the week Kamara finally didn't score a ton of points. Being smashed in the temple on the first drive will do that to a guy. Truly, the angels are on Gary's shoulders this season.
May the four teams actually playing this week find the strength to keep Satan away from their rosters.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL vs. ASSTANNER
The most beloved owner in the league versus...Chris. It's like the Rooneys against Jerry Jones. Bri is starting Alex Smith, which means Cam will have 25 points this week. On the other hand, each Kelce reception is double points, though scoring 2 TDs in the first quarter will be hard to repeat this week. Crabtree is in great shape with Cooper out and Marcus Peters suspended, but it's hard to have faith in Demaryius with this whole Denver situation. That situation being their 2017 season.
Chris is going 4 wide this week, although Robby Anderson is dealing with a hamstring tweak and Chris Harris, Jr. on Sunday, so he should be held in check. Funchess is dealing with a shoulder injury and AJ Green is dealing with Andy Dalton's existence, so Thielen will need to carry the group here. I do not foresee Kenyan Drake having a second big week in a row, but crazy things have happened to the Pats in prime time in Miami before.
These are playoff teams. There might be four good players in this entire game.
THE PICK: TKSMB 74 - AT 68
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS
Fitting that Tim will have to get past the team with the most insulting name in the league in order to truly make this the Year of Tim. It's like how the Steelers will need to beat the Pats twice to get to the Super Bowl this year. (They need home field advantage to have even a decent chance)
Speaking of the Steelers, their points are always have a governor on the throttle in prime time Baltimore games, so Ben and AB will be down. The Giants are down their best CB, but Dez is a glorified tight end, so don't expect much there. Fournette has the Seattle front 7 to deal with and the Seahawks probably will not respect Bort Blakles too much, so it'll actually become a front 9.
I say Kareem Hunt gets in the end zone for the first time in months and we turn another calendar page in the YEAR OF TIM!
THE PICK: SS 86 - TDHAF 79
Friday, December 1, 2017
AFFL Week 12 Preview
LAST WEEK: ???
SEASON: 45-16
I'm not adding last week's picks in because I screwed up so badly. Somehow I convinced myself there were only 3 teams in each division and picked accordingly. The picks I meant to have went about .500, but who even knows what was what. I don't think I was drunk last Saturday afternoon when I rushed out the picks, but maybe it was residual effects.
Last week officially eliminated me from the playoffs, so I guess I need to sing the same song I sing to the trophy every season.
By the way, that stunning information I teased earlier this afternoon? I'm saving it for the end.
THE NATIONAL RAZOR (9-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (8-5)
Gary punched his playoff ticket with a 2-0 Thanksgiving week, and his playoffs certainly will not end in tragedy like they did last year. He is definitely winning it all this year. For sure.
Scott has no chance at winning the division because even if he wins this game, the head-to-head tiebreaker will be 1-1 and Gary will win the division record tiebreaker. Gary could still lose the division to Tim, however, if he loses and Tim wins. And whoever wins this division gets a bye, so this game matters 66%.
Hey, remember back in September when I said Dez sucks and Barker pushed back on that saying he'd rather have Dez as a franchise player than almost anybody I had then he cut Dez and Scott picked him up in a pseudo-trade? Scott is benching Dez in this crucial game. The only separation Dez gets these days is being separated from the good WRs on rankings. Once again, if folks would listen to me the first time, I could save everybody a lot of trouble. But you guys are so determined to fight my rightness. I have no idea why.
By the way, I don't care about one Dez touchdown. Dez is basically a decent tight end who costs more than any other tight end by like 50%.
The Bills should hold down Brady a touch in a must-win home game, Hilton will do nothing against Sacksonville (#1 D SHOUT OUT!), Landry will do nothing against Denver, and Kamara is due to miss the end zone one of these weeks.
Ben and AB are on the road, which is bad. They're in Cincy, which is bad. But they're playing in prime time, which is usually amazing. Scott's backfield will keep this close through Sunday, and then a 1st quarter TD will give Scott the win.
But will Gary hang on for the division?
THE PICK: TDHAF 105 - TNR 90
ANIMAL HOUSE (7-6) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (9-4)
I ranked Brian #1 before the season and here he is with a chance to lock up the #1 seed. Funny how that works. Meyers beat McCamey, but lost every other key head-to-head matchup for playoff tiebreakers. So he needs to win and get some helpful losses.
Seattle is actually a home underdog for the first time in years and Philly has been getting their tires pumped for weeks now, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Wilson throw for 5 TDs Sunday night. Julio never has two huge games in a row, but Keenan should smoke Cleveland, and the entire Seattle secondary is hurt, so Alshon might be okay.
Meyers needs Matt Ryan to go off without throwing a TD to Julio, and he needs the Cardinals to slow down the prolific Rams. Michael Thomas needs to catch TDs out of doors.
All in all, I think it's going to seem feasible come Monday. Meyers will be down something like...20, and it'll be possible that Bell can make up the difference. But he won't.
THE PICK: RM 92 - AH 88
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (9-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-6)
Mannnnnnnn, did Bri blow it last week. 50 points? If you're going to come at me saying this season isn't fluky and the good teams are scoring as much as ever and you're one of the good teams and you put up a fluky 50 in the crucial double week? Mannnnnnnnnn. Again, why do you all have such a problem with me being right? Just let it wash over you. It's comfortable. It's easy.
Anyway, Bri can still make the playoffs with a loss if Meyers and McCamey both lose, but a win clinches his spot. With Gary losing, Tim can clinch a bye with a win, so we got a big one here, folks!
Bri could really, really use Michael Crabtree this week, especially with Janoris Jenkins hitting IR and the Giants apparently quitting for the season, but Crab is suspended for a playground fight. Him going after Talib for snatching his chain is like Gary going after Dietrich for stepping on his new shiny white Nikes.
Sidebar for another funny Dietrich story. Jim and Missy now live in Austin along Lake Travis, and they are friends with Andy Mollenauer, who went to Penn State Beaver. We're friends with the Mollenauers through North Hills soccer. Andy has always been a big boater and the Dietrichs liked going on the boat, so when they moved from Jersey to Austin and bought a house on a lake, Jim pretty quickly bought a boat. Problem is, he never actually drove the boat before, so he had no idea what to do. So Andy had to fly down to Austin and spend a few days there showing Jim how to pilot and maintain and winterize a boat. The whole thing cracks me up. Who buys a boat first and then is like, "Okay, time to figure out how to boat!"
Tim could also use Amari this week, I guess, but he almost died last week and is out this week. Also...wait a minute. Why is Marqise Lee in Tim's starting lineup. Who is missing here?
OH MY GOD HE IS BENCHING KAREEM HUNT IN A GAME HE NEEDS TO WIN TO CLINCH A BYE.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE BALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!
BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE HALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!
Wow. I will admit, Andy Reid is completely screwing up the Chiefs right now because he's fallen in love with reverse bubble screens to the backup tight end, and he's only giving Hunt the ball 9 times a game, but still. This is gutsy.
You know what? It's the year of Tim! Lee scores a TD, Hunt only has 6 points, and Tim clinches a bye!
Didn't know how to drive a boat. Heh.
THE PICK: SS 93 - TKSMB 85
THE NIGHT BOYS (3-10) vs. ASSTANNER (7-6)
Barker can clinch a single lottery ball with a loss here. Remember, only one ball would be good in Gary world. On the other hand, he could potentially knock Chris out of the playoffs with a win, which would be hilarious.
Also, a Barker win here would give me an extra lottery pick thanks to the AJ trade and could potentially give me the one magic lottery ball, so my rooting interests are clear.
Of course, Barker benched Dak in favor of Bort Blakles. I don't care that he's facing Indy, he's still Bort Blakles. He's also starting two tight ends. On the other hand, Chris is starting Kenyan Drake. Does a team starting Kenyan Drake really deserve to make the playoffs? I submit that they do not.
Hey, remember when Brian Barker claimed the best receiving corn? Technically, Chris does. He has 3 different top-10 WRs. One is Thielen and one is Robby Anderson. The third is AJ.
The 4th best WR right now is Marvin Jones, who has been very hot the last 5 weeks. Again, a fluky year.
God, I can't even pretend Barker is going to win this game. And I really, really, REALLY want to.
THE PICK: AT 81 - TNB 55
WTTK? (6-7) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-8)
McCamey can't make the playoffs with Chris winning, so who cares?
THE PICK: TWR 88 - WTTK? 69
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-9) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-9)
Confession time. I'm going to tell you all something that is going to make me look like a genius and an idiot at the same time. But the fact that I'm even telling you and not keeping it to myself is a sign of my unimpeachable integrity.
So...after looking at WR stats and seeing that Chris' top 10 WRs included two of my former guys, and knowing that I was extremely close to grabbing Robby Anderson in pre-season camp, I started wondering what would've happened if I didn't make any trades this season. What if I just rode it out, either because the 2018 draft wasn't that good, or I stubbornly thought my team would turn it around, or I just pouted and quit making moves.
Quick sidebar - after some pre-deadline contract maneuvers, the 2018 draft is not quite as good as I was anticipating back in September. It's still better than 2017, but it's now simply very good instead of amazing.
Anyway, I'd have 3 top 10 WRs, 1 top 10 RB, and the #1 DST by a wide margin. If I still had my Week 1 roster intact, if I was still getting those points each week, how would my team be? So I went back to look at weekly scores, then slotted in Green, Thielen, Hyde, Butker, and Cooper week by week. I didn't change any bench players, I just assumed I would've started AJ over Martavis or Hyde over Marlon Mack.
Also, this doesn't even include me giving up on Latavius Murray way too early.
If I had just held tight, my record right now would be...
...
...
....................
I really don't even want to say it. I'm going to throw up.
10-3
I'd be 10-3 right now. I'd have a bye clinched for the 3rd time in 4 years. I'd have a shot at being the #1 seed for the 2nd time in 3 years.
Instead, I'm essentially a scientist who threw away the first concrete evidence of alien communication because I didn't trust the data.
My 2017 draft was, once again, genius. I managed to pull the #1 team out of a junkyard of a draft. I was the Chip and Joanna Gaines of this draft. I breezed right past injuries to key contract players.
But I was too clever. Too smart for my own good! So determined to get the lead on the 2018 draft that I lost all 2017 flexibility, even when I knew this was going to be a weird, flat, wide open year. And also, doubt crept in. I didn't believe I could possibly be smart enough to cobble together the best team in the league out of spare parts. But I was. I was so good this year that even I couldn't believe it.
Man.
So there it is. I'm just giving this to you, free.
THE PICK: LBJ 50 - TDHGNM 49
Also, Brian Barker is right. This league is boring as hell any more. But I need to save that discussion for next week.
SEASON: 45-16
I'm not adding last week's picks in because I screwed up so badly. Somehow I convinced myself there were only 3 teams in each division and picked accordingly. The picks I meant to have went about .500, but who even knows what was what. I don't think I was drunk last Saturday afternoon when I rushed out the picks, but maybe it was residual effects.
Last week officially eliminated me from the playoffs, so I guess I need to sing the same song I sing to the trophy every season.
By the way, that stunning information I teased earlier this afternoon? I'm saving it for the end.
THE NATIONAL RAZOR (9-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (8-5)
Gary punched his playoff ticket with a 2-0 Thanksgiving week, and his playoffs certainly will not end in tragedy like they did last year. He is definitely winning it all this year. For sure.
Scott has no chance at winning the division because even if he wins this game, the head-to-head tiebreaker will be 1-1 and Gary will win the division record tiebreaker. Gary could still lose the division to Tim, however, if he loses and Tim wins. And whoever wins this division gets a bye, so this game matters 66%.
Hey, remember back in September when I said Dez sucks and Barker pushed back on that saying he'd rather have Dez as a franchise player than almost anybody I had then he cut Dez and Scott picked him up in a pseudo-trade? Scott is benching Dez in this crucial game. The only separation Dez gets these days is being separated from the good WRs on rankings. Once again, if folks would listen to me the first time, I could save everybody a lot of trouble. But you guys are so determined to fight my rightness. I have no idea why.
By the way, I don't care about one Dez touchdown. Dez is basically a decent tight end who costs more than any other tight end by like 50%.
The Bills should hold down Brady a touch in a must-win home game, Hilton will do nothing against Sacksonville (#1 D SHOUT OUT!), Landry will do nothing against Denver, and Kamara is due to miss the end zone one of these weeks.
Ben and AB are on the road, which is bad. They're in Cincy, which is bad. But they're playing in prime time, which is usually amazing. Scott's backfield will keep this close through Sunday, and then a 1st quarter TD will give Scott the win.
But will Gary hang on for the division?
THE PICK: TDHAF 105 - TNR 90
ANIMAL HOUSE (7-6) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (9-4)
I ranked Brian #1 before the season and here he is with a chance to lock up the #1 seed. Funny how that works. Meyers beat McCamey, but lost every other key head-to-head matchup for playoff tiebreakers. So he needs to win and get some helpful losses.
Seattle is actually a home underdog for the first time in years and Philly has been getting their tires pumped for weeks now, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Wilson throw for 5 TDs Sunday night. Julio never has two huge games in a row, but Keenan should smoke Cleveland, and the entire Seattle secondary is hurt, so Alshon might be okay.
Meyers needs Matt Ryan to go off without throwing a TD to Julio, and he needs the Cardinals to slow down the prolific Rams. Michael Thomas needs to catch TDs out of doors.
All in all, I think it's going to seem feasible come Monday. Meyers will be down something like...20, and it'll be possible that Bell can make up the difference. But he won't.
THE PICK: RM 92 - AH 88
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (9-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-6)
Mannnnnnnn, did Bri blow it last week. 50 points? If you're going to come at me saying this season isn't fluky and the good teams are scoring as much as ever and you're one of the good teams and you put up a fluky 50 in the crucial double week? Mannnnnnnnnn. Again, why do you all have such a problem with me being right? Just let it wash over you. It's comfortable. It's easy.
Anyway, Bri can still make the playoffs with a loss if Meyers and McCamey both lose, but a win clinches his spot. With Gary losing, Tim can clinch a bye with a win, so we got a big one here, folks!
Bri could really, really use Michael Crabtree this week, especially with Janoris Jenkins hitting IR and the Giants apparently quitting for the season, but Crab is suspended for a playground fight. Him going after Talib for snatching his chain is like Gary going after Dietrich for stepping on his new shiny white Nikes.
Sidebar for another funny Dietrich story. Jim and Missy now live in Austin along Lake Travis, and they are friends with Andy Mollenauer, who went to Penn State Beaver. We're friends with the Mollenauers through North Hills soccer. Andy has always been a big boater and the Dietrichs liked going on the boat, so when they moved from Jersey to Austin and bought a house on a lake, Jim pretty quickly bought a boat. Problem is, he never actually drove the boat before, so he had no idea what to do. So Andy had to fly down to Austin and spend a few days there showing Jim how to pilot and maintain and winterize a boat. The whole thing cracks me up. Who buys a boat first and then is like, "Okay, time to figure out how to boat!"
Tim could also use Amari this week, I guess, but he almost died last week and is out this week. Also...wait a minute. Why is Marqise Lee in Tim's starting lineup. Who is missing here?
OH MY GOD HE IS BENCHING KAREEM HUNT IN A GAME HE NEEDS TO WIN TO CLINCH A BYE.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE BALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!
BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE HALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!
Wow. I will admit, Andy Reid is completely screwing up the Chiefs right now because he's fallen in love with reverse bubble screens to the backup tight end, and he's only giving Hunt the ball 9 times a game, but still. This is gutsy.
You know what? It's the year of Tim! Lee scores a TD, Hunt only has 6 points, and Tim clinches a bye!
Didn't know how to drive a boat. Heh.
THE PICK: SS 93 - TKSMB 85
THE NIGHT BOYS (3-10) vs. ASSTANNER (7-6)
Barker can clinch a single lottery ball with a loss here. Remember, only one ball would be good in Gary world. On the other hand, he could potentially knock Chris out of the playoffs with a win, which would be hilarious.
Also, a Barker win here would give me an extra lottery pick thanks to the AJ trade and could potentially give me the one magic lottery ball, so my rooting interests are clear.
Of course, Barker benched Dak in favor of Bort Blakles. I don't care that he's facing Indy, he's still Bort Blakles. He's also starting two tight ends. On the other hand, Chris is starting Kenyan Drake. Does a team starting Kenyan Drake really deserve to make the playoffs? I submit that they do not.
Hey, remember when Brian Barker claimed the best receiving corn? Technically, Chris does. He has 3 different top-10 WRs. One is Thielen and one is Robby Anderson. The third is AJ.
The 4th best WR right now is Marvin Jones, who has been very hot the last 5 weeks. Again, a fluky year.
God, I can't even pretend Barker is going to win this game. And I really, really, REALLY want to.
THE PICK: AT 81 - TNB 55
WTTK? (6-7) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-8)
McCamey can't make the playoffs with Chris winning, so who cares?
THE PICK: TWR 88 - WTTK? 69
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-9) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-9)
Confession time. I'm going to tell you all something that is going to make me look like a genius and an idiot at the same time. But the fact that I'm even telling you and not keeping it to myself is a sign of my unimpeachable integrity.
So...after looking at WR stats and seeing that Chris' top 10 WRs included two of my former guys, and knowing that I was extremely close to grabbing Robby Anderson in pre-season camp, I started wondering what would've happened if I didn't make any trades this season. What if I just rode it out, either because the 2018 draft wasn't that good, or I stubbornly thought my team would turn it around, or I just pouted and quit making moves.
Quick sidebar - after some pre-deadline contract maneuvers, the 2018 draft is not quite as good as I was anticipating back in September. It's still better than 2017, but it's now simply very good instead of amazing.
Anyway, I'd have 3 top 10 WRs, 1 top 10 RB, and the #1 DST by a wide margin. If I still had my Week 1 roster intact, if I was still getting those points each week, how would my team be? So I went back to look at weekly scores, then slotted in Green, Thielen, Hyde, Butker, and Cooper week by week. I didn't change any bench players, I just assumed I would've started AJ over Martavis or Hyde over Marlon Mack.
Also, this doesn't even include me giving up on Latavius Murray way too early.
If I had just held tight, my record right now would be...
...
...
....................
I really don't even want to say it. I'm going to throw up.
10-3
I'd be 10-3 right now. I'd have a bye clinched for the 3rd time in 4 years. I'd have a shot at being the #1 seed for the 2nd time in 3 years.
Instead, I'm essentially a scientist who threw away the first concrete evidence of alien communication because I didn't trust the data.
My 2017 draft was, once again, genius. I managed to pull the #1 team out of a junkyard of a draft. I was the Chip and Joanna Gaines of this draft. I breezed right past injuries to key contract players.
But I was too clever. Too smart for my own good! So determined to get the lead on the 2018 draft that I lost all 2017 flexibility, even when I knew this was going to be a weird, flat, wide open year. And also, doubt crept in. I didn't believe I could possibly be smart enough to cobble together the best team in the league out of spare parts. But I was. I was so good this year that even I couldn't believe it.
Man.
So there it is. I'm just giving this to you, free.
THE PICK: LBJ 50 - TDHGNM 49
Also, Brian Barker is right. This league is boring as hell any more. But I need to save that discussion for next week.
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