SEASON: 14-4
It feels a little dramatic to call this a critical week for a lot of teams, but unlike last season when most teams muddied their way to a .500 record 1/2 of the way through this season, we could be seeing some real separation after 35% of the games have been played.
If all of CBS' favorites come through this week, the standings will show:
- Five teams at 3-1
- Three teams at 1-3
- One truly pathetic team at 0-4
Now, of course all teams are outside of their divisions for the next 8 games and one team's win is another team's loss, and anything can happen, etc, etc. But in my always measured and humbled opinion, there's more a talent divide between the top and bottom teams than usual, so it will be tougher to make up ground, especially with the mighty Dead Drop Division roaming free and laying waste to your towns and teams.
If he falls to 0-4 this week, Chris would likely need to go 8-2 through the rest of the season - including a double game week - to get the 6 seed. Them Barker Boys would need to go 7-3. Not easy, especially when those teams would be 1-3 or 0-4 for a reason. That reason being, specifically, that they suck deluxe.
Throw in the extra factors of the 2019 draft being a barren wasteland and the non-playoffs teams not having any good players to sell off for picks anyway and...yeah. Some must-win games out there this week. Come Tuesday, we could be looking at a quarter of the league and saying...
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-1) vs. ASSTANNER (0-3)
Adam Thielen revenge game!
Look, I wouldn't say I was HOPING to start off the week down 55, but I ain't sweatin' it! Shoot, because of how the schedule is set up this week, I'm going to be down 104-25 when the 1pm games wrap up. But that's when Chris will be done and I'll just be getting started.
Full marks to Chris for making a late switch yesterday and sliding Goff into the starting lineup. He might have done it 36 minutes before kickoff and was rewarded with 36 points. That's great. I'm always happy when good things happen for Chris. He deserves it.
But it seems reasonable to me that Brees, Beckham, and Gio can match Goff, Thielen, and Godwin. Zeke and Saquon will cancel out, and I like my chances with Carson and John Brown over Tyler Boyd and Dede Westbrook. Throw in my advantage and K and DST and I'm feeling good. Feeling real good.
Odell Beckham hasn't found the end zone yet this season, something he is sure to remedy this week. Whatever celebration he does, picture me doing the same after that Harrison Butker FG Monday night clinches the win.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 108 - AT 104
HEISENBERG (2-1) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-0)
Todd Haley might be a weirdo who gets in bar fights at places where Nazis drink IC Light, but he was clever enough to split Le'Veon out wide to get him matched up on a linebacker. Cardinals OC Mike McCoy (who flamed out in San Diego) and HC Steve Wilks (who is currently flaming out in Arizona), keep pounding David Johnson between the tackles.
Worse, last week against the Bears, they put Josh Rosen in for his first NFL snaps during the two minute drill of a two point game. Worse than that, when DJ missed a 2nd down blitz pickup, the Cards took him off the field to patiently explain to him to not get beat on blitzes, which meant Chase Edmonds was in for a third down the Cards didn't convert before losing the game.
McCoy and Wilks know more about football than me. I would hope. But how fucking stupid do you have to be to have your rookie QB start his QB with 1:48 left and then take the team's best player off the field to explain something that A) He knows and B) Can be covered in Monday's film session? I mean...fucking moronic.
Per Matt Berry, assumedly per NFL Stats, Royce Freeman has more carries than DJ right now. So does Alfred Morris. So do BOTH Titans RBs.
The point of this is that I don't think this is DJ's year.
Which is a long way of saying that it's amazing that Larry is 3-0 with DJ and Dalvin having done nothing so far. Or perhaps he's already running on fumes and is about to fall apart like the Bluesmobile in Daley Plaza. Benching Cook and Murray, the only two guys on either team who didn't light it up last night was a good start. Mahomes will continue to roll, and Landry should be nice against the Oakland defense, but I don't really like the rest of the lineup here. I do not have faith that the Dolphins will move to 4-0 against the Patriots with Drake churning out 4th quarter yards.
Gary should bench Lynch against a good Browns defense, but it doesn't really matter if he does or not because all of his other matchups are sweet, juicy plums.
THE PICK: HB 103 - TWR 72
LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-2) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-1)
Speaking of bad coaching, Jeff Fisher being the only guy who could stop Todd Gurley is going to be joked about like Dean Smith being the only man to hold Michael Jordan under 20 PPG. Just awful.
Gurley had a smooth 21 points last night and it didn't even seem like he did that much. Probably because 14 of those points came off of his TD and a single reception he turned into a 65-yard gain.
The good news for Bri this week (besides that he's facing somebody who needs to rally just to get back to 0) is that he can't possibly screw up his QB decision this week because Cam is on a bye. I would probably start Breida over Miller since Beathard is going to hit him with about 20 dump off passes, but Bri could probably bench both of them, leave that starting spot unfilled, and still run away with this one. In fact, he should start Cam on his bye just as a big flex in Semi's face.
Starting off the week with negative points is just so, so funny to me and credit to Semi for beating Tim's -3 from Week 2.
If Lindsay actually does something this week and outpaces Freeman again, I'll officially be a believer. I want to be an Allen Robinson believer very badly but as much as I like him getting 15 targets a game, if 5 are at his ankles and 5 more are over his head, what does it really matter? Matt Nagy must haaaaaaaaaaate what Trubisky is doing back there while KC and LA run wild. Reminder: the Bears traded up to pick Trubisky #2 in the same draft that had Pat Mahomes. Fuckin' Todd Blackledge over Marino type stuff.
God, as I really look at these lineups, I want to call for the upset so much. I really think this is going to be a lot closer than CBS makes it out to be. Or even I made it out to be 50 words back. I just can't get past Semi hearing the starting gun and then running backwards.
THE PICK: TKSMB 89 - LBJ 84
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (1-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-2)
Barker got 28.8 points out of Kirk Cousins last night, but I think he should lose 5 of them. There should be a 5-point shame penalty any time you bench your franchise player. Might as well change the team from Russellmania to Kissing Kirk Kousins or Sup Cous? or something. A real slap in the face of the franchise.
Also benched this week is Amari Cooper, so expect 15 useless points from him this week. Shady McCoy, who's back in the starting lineup for some reason, would love to have 15 points on the season, let alone this week. Gronk is banged up and getting bracketed because Josh Gordon isn't ready to play yet, and there will soon be a game in which Buck Allen doesn't score a TD and only posts 3 points. Rex Burkhead, who was totally going to be good THIS year, has been sent to IR.
On other the hand, Tim's QB this week is CJ Beathard, which...Tim does realize that just because the Niners are replacing Garoppolo with Beathard doesn't mean he has to as well, right? I'm aware that Tim has a little cap coziness with 2 kickers rostered plus Howard costing $2.59 and a super expensive defense, but this is a must win week. He really wants to ride with Beathard?
You know what's great, though? Tim's actually going to pull it off.
THE PICK: SS 84 - RM 76
WTTK? (1-2) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-1)
Meyers hasn't yet put James Conner under contract, which seems a little odd since he's all but guaranteed to be the starting Steelers RB next season. And going back to last week's Bell trade talk for a second, I tried to figure out possible destinations for him either this season or next.
To be a viable landing spot, I looked for teams with:
- A need in the backfield
- Cap space
- The required, let's say, "sense of adventure" to sign a long term FA back
If you ask me, and you implicitly are, I'd say that leads us to:
- The entire AFC East
- Colts
- Raiders
- Bucs
- Niners
- Seahawks
See the diatribe above about coaching and David Johnson and you decide if all of those places are equally attractive.
Oh hey, remember two weeks ago when Animal House looked absolutely unbeatable? That's going to seem like two years ago after this week. The Dead Drop Division is out here just slaughtering lesser teams!
THE PICK: WTTK? 115 - AH 93
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-2)
Brandin Cooks rewarded Barker for his new franchise player designation with 18 big points. Also, for the record, I found out during trade talks last week that Barker was planning on dumping Dak so my Dak attack in the Week 3 Review had nothing to do with the change.
I am really not sure what to make of this matchup. It features THREE tight ends, two pass catching 3rd down backs, two AFC North quarterbacks, two superstar receivers, and Sterling Shepherd. I guess it depends on whether we're getting a classic 13-10 Steelers/Ravens game, or something closer to last year's 31-27 barn burner.
Man, somebody's gotta win this game, I guess. Hopkins is listed as Questionable this week and although I'm sure he'll play, I'm going to make that my determining factor.
THE PICK: TDHAF 74 - TNB 68
THE PICK: WTTK? 115 - AH 93
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-2)
Brandin Cooks rewarded Barker for his new franchise player designation with 18 big points. Also, for the record, I found out during trade talks last week that Barker was planning on dumping Dak so my Dak attack in the Week 3 Review had nothing to do with the change.
I am really not sure what to make of this matchup. It features THREE tight ends, two pass catching 3rd down backs, two AFC North quarterbacks, two superstar receivers, and Sterling Shepherd. I guess it depends on whether we're getting a classic 13-10 Steelers/Ravens game, or something closer to last year's 31-27 barn burner.
Man, somebody's gotta win this game, I guess. Hopkins is listed as Questionable this week and although I'm sure he'll play, I'm going to make that my determining factor.
THE PICK: TDHAF 74 - TNB 68
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