AFFL Week 10 Preview

LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 37-17

Here's how crazy this season is. The picks only went 3-3 last weeks even though I predicted McCamey would score 105 (He had 105 exactly), Brian Barker would have 68 (69), Tim would have 108 (105), and Chris would have 67 (66.5). I somehow got 4 scores dead on but only 3 games right. I feel like that is hard to do.

But that's in the past. I've decided I'm moving on from this sad sack slump and getting back to my rip roarin' routine. This week is the first win in my Drive 4 5 in which I promise to win 5 straight games for charity. The charity being me as 5 wins will get me into the playoffs and get me some money. Here comes the comeback kid!





CURRENT STANDINGS
1) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball
2) Sigmund and the Seamonster
3) The Night Boys
4) WTTK?
5) The Whitechapel Rippers
6) Animal House
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7) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends
8) Heisenberg
9) Little Baby Jesus
10) The Dude Has Got No Mercy
11) Asstanner
12) Russellmania


CURRENT STANDINGS IF WE PLAYED 1 v. 11
1) That Kangaroo Stole My Ball (/)
2) Animal House (+4)
3) WTTK? (+1)
4) The Dude Has Got No Mercy (+6)
5) Timmy Doesn't Have Any Friends (+2)
6) Sigmund and the Seamonster (-4)
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7) The Whitechapel Rippers (-2)
8) Heisenberg (/)
9) Little Baby Jesus (/)
10) The Night Boys (-7)
11) Asstanner (/)
12) Russellmania (/)


Now, at 2-7 Chris is not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but he's out of the playoffs. He can't win enough with all of the teams ahead of him losing enough for things to work out. But he's 37-62 in the 1 v. 11 breakdown. Tim is 52-47. That's only 15 games. What if he could make a flurry of trades and post the 3rd-highest score the next three weeks? Going 27-6 in a 3-week run sure would make up a lot of ground.

Then imagine Gary posted the 1st-, 6th-, and 10-best score in that same span and ping ponging all over the place. You like how SNF and MNF is more fun because we all see who's scoring together and which teams are winning or losing? Imagine a late Josh Gordon TD like last week's lets Chris jump four different teams at the same time. Or how fun last night would've have been with teams racing out to big leads on the rest of the league.

Shoot, Brian Barker is 14-85 in the breakdown right now. What if he went absolutely insane with trades this week and put together a stacked team that had the highest or 2nd-highest score in the next 4 weeks? A 42-2 run to close the season? Okay, that might still not be enough because Brian is historically bad this season, but at least he could try.


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-6) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-4)
I'm favored by 29 in this one, although a big part of that is Caleb Sturgis is forecast to post a 0 because the Chargers cut him this week. Facing a K and DST bye last week, Larry actually finessed his salary cap to bring in replacements. He had to bring in Stevan Ridley and Anthony Miller to do so.

Unfortunately, the Seahawks and Sturgis combined for 2 points and Larry still lost. Even more unfortunate, Larry now has $0.09 of cap space left and no kicker for the rest of the season. I feel like Jarvis Landry and his $1.58 might be on his way out. Or maybe he'll trade Mike Evans' big contract.

You know who's looking for a WR? Chris offered me Carson Wentz and a 5th for Tyreek Hill. Thats's one of the worst trade offers I've ever seen, and I try to rip off people all the time. I'm keeping Tyreek for next year and I like him this week, although Larry having Mahomes (puts on glasses) dilutes his efficacy. I'm not as big on Golladay because Detroit has stopped passing for some reasons (coincidentally they've also stopped winning), but it's all about Rodgers, Saquon, and Odell for me this week anyway. Oh, and the Jets defense against the Bills.

Mahomes and DJ will have great weeks and Drake could have a nice game against the Packers, but Miller won't do anything and the Seahawks will be torched by the Rams. And I'm pretty sure it's either a kicker or Landry for Larry this week, so I'm not concerned there.

I'm really going to work out a lot of frustration this week. Make Michael Douglas in Falling Down look like a Buddhist.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 111 - TWR 83


RUSSELLMANIA (2-7) v. HEISENBERG (4-5)
I exaggerated for comedic effect earlier when I said Brian was historically bad. He's currently on pace to finish the year with 872 points. Larry only had 868 last year and Scott has 823 in 2015. But since Brian had a league low 979 in 2014, he'd be the first repeat offender since Tim's 2012/2016 double dip.

One good week is all it takes to go back to Heisenberg? That undoes the previous terrible three weeks? Really?

After Larry's HR department put in some overtime last week, it's Gary's turn this week. He also has $0.09 of cap room to work with, but he needs both a kicker AND a defense. I happen to know a guy who has TWO defenses rostered and both are under $1 and this guy loves trades, Gary! Hit me up and I'll give you his contact info!

Actually, Gary has already told me that he's going to play shorthanded this week because he didn't want to risk picking up a defense that posts a negative score. Or, as I like to call it, Coward's Poker. I even offered him the Jags which he can afford because they're relatively cheap and he could slot them into that Devonta Freeman FP slot. But alas.

Of course, Brian did just post a negative DST score so Gary has already won the position for the week. Not sure how much more of a favor Gary could've gotten there. Just that score alone took Barker from the favorite to the underdog in this matchup.

I'd really like to see Barker pull this one out for my own playoff needs, and so I am begging him to pull Shady in favor of...I mean, literally anybody. Godwin? Sure. Anybody. Alex Smith will be nice against Tampa, and Chubb can get some against Atlanta unless Duke steals all of it, and...oh god. Doug Martin? Cordarelle Patterson with Michel coming back? Jesus. What a gift.

So Gary, desperately needing a win to stay alive in the playoff race, not having a K and a DST due to byes, gets to face a team that might not score 60. No, schedule luck isn't an outsized factor in the standings at all.

THE PICK: HB 77 - RM 55


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (5-4) v. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (6-3)
I was driving down McKnight yesterday and this Audi R8 came in behind me. When I moved over to let it by, it took off with some zip. About a mile down the road, I saw a 911 pulled over and had three thoughts, in this order:

     "Pretty nice Porsche"
     "That Audi is lucky the Porsche got nabbed first"
     "Three cop cars seem like a lot for a traffic stop"

Not to be a drag about precision German engineering, but on that section of McKnight there is a merge lane from Babcock where cars have to get onto McKnight from a standing stop, a crosswalk, and a bus stop. It's not that far-fetched that last night's box score could've had Brown - DNP (Manslaughter)

Anyway, the Steelers are rounding into classic November form, slaughtering good teams in prime time to set up a devastating playoff loss. It's becoming quite the routine. That has helped Scott in his playoff push in the past and it certainly helped last night as he jumped out to a 49.2-15 lead. But although it looks like a blowout, this one isn't over yet. Heck, the Steelers DST matched AB so all Tim needs is 2 players to match Ben's 33.6 + Player X score. The Tampa D is terrible but Washington lost 3 lineman last week, so AP could struggle, and Fournette could easily be limited in his return this week.

Meanwhile, Aaron Jones looks great against Miami and Hunt looks really great against Arizona. I'm just hung up on Christian Kirk, who won't contribute a ton. Plus, Seattle's defense is coming on and they run the ball to shorten games, so Goff and Woods will be down a little bit too.

I really want to pick Tim here. I'm not sure if it's because of the perverse thrill or a degree of difficulty thing, but I'd love to do it. I just can't.

THE PICK: TDHAF 91 - SS 88


ASSTANNER (2-7) v. THE NIGHT BOYS (6-3)
Barker needs this win to keep the inside edge on the playoffs, but his two best receivers - Thielen and Hopkins - are both on a bye. Seems unfortunate. But with AJ Green out, Tyler Boyd is now Cincy's #1 receiver against the Saints. Seems fortunate. That's not schedule luck or points luck or anything, it's just regular roster stuff, but it's still a nice break.

That said, having to count on David Moore and Tyrell Williams to score TDs to be useful is tough. Duke Johnson will be nice, but having a Chargers kicker on your team seems like a pretty bad idea.

On the other hand, it's exceedingly tough to get behind the idea of an Asstanner win here. He's got Zeke and Amari on a team where the owner just clarified he won't fire the head coach during the season, Trubisky is hit or miss, Crowell has done nothing since that one good game a month ago, and if Calvin Ridley doesn't have a TD he has nothing. Josh Gordon is his only real hope here.

This one is going to be ugly.

THE PICK: TNB 76 - AT 67


WTTK? (6-3) v. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-2)
Technically, starting Cam was the correct choice, but that's mainly because DeShaun Watson was on a bye. Scoring 13.4 points is not going to get it done against McCamey this week. McCamey's matchups are so good this week that he might be pushing 130 by the end of the week. The last time Rivers and Gordon faced Oakland they combined for 37 points, Mixon should get overfed against the Saints with Green out, and Davante will score against the Dolphins for sure.

Gurley only had 13 points last week, which was the first time all year he was held under twenty points. Let me restate that. Every week until last week, Gurley was worth two players. It's almost impossible to believe he'll have another average game, but we mentioned that Seattle slows the game down and they are a division rival. Cleveland's decent defense and chilly, wet weather could slow down Coleman, and Hilton will get Jalen Ramsey. Kelce will be fine against the Cardinals, but he'll just have too much ground to make up.

McCamey will have a nice lead going into Monday night and George Kittle is just going to stretch that lead out over Matt Breida.

Don't look now, but Bri is going to drop two straight games and Barker is going to tie him for the division lead even though he'll have 190 fewer points.

THE PICK: WTTK 125 - TKSMB 76


ANIMAL HOUSE (5-4) v. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-6)
The only good news for Semi in watching JuJu, McCaffrey, and Conner light him up is that now he doesn't need to bother picking up a replacement defense.

THE PICK: AH 122 - LBJ 58