AFFL Week 13 Preview

WEEK 11: 5-1
SEASON: 45-21

I didn't even make pretend Week 12 picks in my mind last week, so the final tally is just going to come up 12 games short of a full season. Seriously, though, 24 games over .500? Not one single losing week? I don't think we talk enough about how incredible my picks are each season. There are a lot of great things about me that we don't discuss nearly enough, and this is one of them. We should set up a league-wide picks pool next season so I can somehow lose that too.

But enough about that. Let's talk about the league format some more! You might be tired of hearing about it, but I'm sure not! Besides, as any good journalist like myself will tell you, bias doesn't appear in what you write, it shows up in what you choose to write about. If you want to talk about something else, start your own remarkably stupid blog. I can share my business plan with you if it helps, but I'll tell you here that my annual operating expenses are $0.00. That's both CapEx and OpEx.

Yesterday Larry and I had a low-octane Sloan Sports Conference via text about various league set ups and how they would or wouldn't affect this year's standings. A real meeting of the minds. He analyzed the standings if we gave 2 points for a win, 0 for a loss, and 1 bonus point for breaking 100 points. He also looked at the 1 v. 11 breakdown format.

The short version is that I would do better this season (good formats!) but things would be mostly unchanged except for some shifting seeds. For all the info the League History section gives you, it doesn't show Breakdown by year, but I recall doing this same exercise a few years ago and finding out the same thing more or less. I'm willing to extrapolate if you looked back through the years and really crunched some numbers, each year we'd have one or two teams jump into the playoffs with a new format, one or two drop out, and then some basic slot jockeying among the other teams. A minimal effect, really. Additionally, even though I'm #1 in scoring and #1 in the power rankings but still might miss the playoffs, this rarely happens. I think we discussed automatically giving the #6 seed to the #1 scoring team if they didn't make the playoffs by record 3-4 years ago and this is the first time it's actually come up since.

So it seems that we can finally put the head-to-head format issue to bed, which is good because I've heard from sources that Gary thinks I'm ruining the league this year. (Source: Gary)

EXCEPT!

There is one other key stat I saw this week. According to CBS' very own Fantasy Journalist, if I played McCamey's schedule this season, I'd be 11-2. Not a huge difference, just one game better. If McCamey played my schedule, he'd be 5-8. Not a huge difference, just one game worse.

But the huge difference is that that schedule is the difference between a team being the #1 seed or the #8 seed. Since we're in the same division, it's entirely plausible McCamey could've pulled my schedule and have been eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving.

To be clear, this isn't based on cherry-picking roster moves or lineup divisions. This isn't based on McCamey falling to 1-3 after Week 4 and pulling the trigger on the Melvin Gordon trade he and I worked out if he lost. This doesn't suppose I never left points on the bench and lost because of that.

If NOTHING changed except who we played each week, if both McCamey and I made literally the same draft picks, same trades, same waiver moves, and same starting lineup decisions each week, our fates would be totally reversed. I'd say this is some Sliding Doors shit, but in that movie Gwyneth makes a choice to either stay on the subway or get off. In this situation, nothing changes except schedule.

Coincidentally, McCamey has the lowest Points Against this season.

Of our common non-division opponents, only Animal House scored more points against McCamey than they did me. In fact, our common opponents scored an average of 20 points more against me than they did against McCamey. 20!

This is not meant to impugn McCamey's team, which is pretty decent. He's top half of the league in scoring and I said he'd get a playoff spot in the season preview. That's the point. The schedule is the point.

If Semi didn't change a thing this season, if he still traded away Tyreek and Rodgers and Julio for picks, but played McCamey's schedule, he'd be 7-6 right now. And he's the 11th scoring offense in the league!

Of course, the rebuttal to this is, well, the breakdown format only changes a couple of playoff teams each season, so what's the big deal? And I admit, there is not one perfect solution that settles everything.

In my - perhaps singular - opinion, schedule luck plays an outsized factor in results. I'm not good enough at math or statistics to figure out the effect, but if you can make the exact same moves in a season and be either #1 or #9 based entirely on who you play each week, I'm gonna say it's approximately a 100% factor.

Enough of that for now. Let's get to the games. I am still technically alive for the playoffs, but fittingly, my fate depends more on what other teams do than what I do. Unfortunately for me, all 4 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots, including myself, are huge favorites this week.

I call upon the Biblical Gideon to smite my enemies despite the odds against me. O Lord, tell me who you want me to smite and they will be smoten! Smite them with pounding rhythms!





If I do win this week and get the 2 key losses that I need, I know it's going to one big holiday.




For what it's worth, I highly, highly recommend putting that second video on today after you punch the clock, surf down that dinosaur's back, and fly into your car.


WTTK? (10-3) v. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (6-7)
I am borderline paranoid about losing this week because of lineup decisions. Josh Adams vs. Washington and DJ Moore vs. Tampa could go the wrong way. Those are two B-/C+ options to be sure, but in great matchups with great volume potential. Brees vs. Rodgers was another concern. I thought Brees would be fine indoors and back in Texas, but apparently not. Carson vs. San Francisco is another one I'm hung up on.

The mega brain genius play would be to bench Odell against the Bears as the potential of Eli getting sacked 13 times is definitely in play. But I'm not sure I have the guts to be the guy who missed the playoffs because he started DJ Moore over Odell Beckham.

That said, none of it will matter for two reasons. McCamey is going to post a blank in one spot because DeSean, Kerryon, Melvin Gordon, and Funchess are all injured. And I'm not going to get the 2 key losses I need to eke into the playoffs.

So I'll win, but not finish with the most points scored or a playoff spot. A totally useless season.

THE PICK: TDHGM 84 - WTTK 67


FLYNN (5-8) v. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (7-6)
A Tim loss would help me, but only getting 7.2 points from Kamara won't. The only even minor concern that Tim has is that Diggs is going to be out and he'll need to replace him. Other than that, Tim is sailing into the playoffs.

THE PICK: SS 105 - F 56


LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-9) v. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (6-7)
And if Larry is going to take a playoff spot away from me as well, I guess I'm happy that it will tamp down his "I'm quitting next season" pledge that I've been hearing for the past three seasons.

There is just something so perverse and cruel about the fact that I had a bad season because my opponents kept lighting it up against me and now when I need certain teams to lose they are going to light it up as well.

THE PICK: TWR 93 - LBJ 57


ANIMAL HOUSE (8-5) v. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (9-3-1)
Like there being a new, colossal Trump scandal everything day so we don't have enough time to digest the last one, we were so busy complaining about other things last week that we didn't spend any time at all on the fact that there was a tie game for the first time ever. I mean, not one single yard could be spared in either direction? Amazing.

Whoever wins this game will secure a bye and you can't argue they don't deserve it since these are likely to be the top 2 scoring teams. Meyers' problem is that Brady is turning into mush and Conner is hitting a late season wall. Ingram and Thomas already flamed out, and JuJu and McCaffrey won't be able to make up enough ground.

THE PICK: TKSMB 91 - AH 79


THE NIGHT BOYS (6-6-1) v. RUSSELLMANIA (3-10)
M. Barker hasn't made the playoffs since 2011. A couple of times he lost seasons because he had the most points against and when that Kraken rises up from the murky depths and seizes your ship, no vessel is powerful enough to escape its terrifying grasp. So it was probably halfway decent to edge toward the playoffs this season with the 8th-most points because he had only the 6th-most points against. A make up season if you will.

Even nicer is that in a must-win matchup he draws the worst team in the league by a mile, a team that lost its one QB to injury last week. A team that has scored under 70 points NINE teams this season. Looking pretty good, champ!

Except he's going to miss the playoffs again because Larry beat him H2H and has the tiebreaker for the 6 seed. Oh well.

THE PICK: TNB 88 - RM 44


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (8-5) v. ASSTANNER (5-8)
Let the record show that I did not get at all agitated by Chris' move last night and in fact pointed out that it was symbolic and meaningless. If more people in this league had my level-headed, calm, long view approach, we'd all be a lot happier around here. Everybody else is so on edge!

This game doesn't matter at all. Congrats to Scott for winning the worst division in the league with the 9th-fewest points against.

THE PICK: TDHAF 83 - AT 40