AFFL Week 9 Preview

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 34-14


Big credit to Mike Barker this week for actually contributing something positive and useful to the dodekalogue (That's like a monologue or a dialogue, but with 12 people) this week. It's a quite a strain for me to carry the burden of having all of the good ideas all of the time, so kudos to him for chipping in.

To complete his ideas fully, I will now give my opinion on them.

1) The top 5 seeds are determined exactly the same as this season. The 6th seed is the remaining team with the most points. My other league does a variation on this which states if the highest-scoring team in the league is somehow not in the top 6 by record, that team is given the 6 seed. I'd be fine with either version, but Barker's more open version gives more teams more reason to keep going through the finish line.

2) All tiebreakers are settled by total points. Disregard head to head for tiebreakers. I like this but with a twist. Since division teams play each other twice, I'd keep head-to-head for division tiebreakers. Otherwise, with other teams just playing once there is no other tiebreaker than head-to-head.

3) Let Higher Seeds in each playoff round select their playoff opponent. Reward the higher seeds, it's like our version of having home field advantage. Plus it's fun. The only thing I don't like about this suggestion is that it's proof that Barker doesn't read the preview since I had the same idea two weeks ago.

4) Super Radical one that everyone will hate- Forget divisions. 12 game regular season. Play every team once and one team twice which would be based on last season- #1 vs. #12 and so on. Have an 8 team playoff- let the higher seeds select their opponent. Top 8 teams play week 13, SemiFinals week 14 and Championship Week 15. Avoid weeks 16 and 17 when NFL stars sometimes rest. I don't hate it, but I don't love it either. It's a no from me, dawg.

5) Instead of having a lottery, the winner of the Loser's Bracket, (the teams that don't make the playoffs), the winner of that bracket earns the #1 pick and so on. This is good too.

There will be two net effects of these rule changes if they're enacted. First, total points will become much more important regardless of record, so more teams will have more incentives to score and will be willing to make more moves all the way through the season. Second, tank trades for picks will plummet because even bad teams will have a reason to fight! fight! fight! until the final whistle. I am fine with both outcomes.

On to the picks, and we'll start with yet another matchup for me that won't exactly be smooth sailin'.




THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-5) v
. THE NIGHT BOYS (5-3)
I traded away most of my team last season with the aim of maximizing my first round picks and lottery odds expressly to land Saquon Barkley. When that didn't work, I traded three first round picks for the #1 to get Barkley. Landing an injured Odell Beckham thanks to contract timing was just a bonus.

Now I face a must-win game without either player thanks to a bye. Instead, I'm relying on guys like Chris Carson, Kenny Golladay, John Brown, and the newly-acquired D.J. Moore. I like all of these players and they are good, but they could all score 2 or 20 points this week. I could post 70 again or 110 again. Of course, as usual, what I do will matter less than what my opponent does.

I have to admit, I've been Kubler-Rossing it pretty hard over here lately. When I lost to Bri, I went through denial about my record. This week, I've powered through anger and moved on to bargaining. "If I win this week, I'm back in it! If I lose, I just need to win 5 straight to have a chance!" 

Problem is, I'm not sure I can win this week. Carson and Cohen are pretty even, and the WR matchup is close, but I like the odds of Hopkins and/or Thielen going off more than Hill or Brown. And if Hill comes up lame, I'm really in trouble. Plus, Barker has the Bears defense teeing off on the Peter Man, which is a sure DTD at some point.

I'm going to go into yet another Sunday night game with one of my players still to play, keeping me technically alive for a loss (47 points for Rodgers???) but probably giving me another loss.

On another note, it's a shame about Raheem Mostert. I thought he looked pretty lively the two times I saw him play this year. And that now makes consecutive Thursdays on which one of my bench players scored a long TD before suffering a season-ending injury. Good times.

Sigh. I guess I'm going to have to try to win 5 straight to close the season. Barker's highest score of the season to date is 114 points, and I look forward to him setting a new personal best.

THE PICK: TNB 115 - TDHGNM 81


LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-5) v. FLYNN (3-5)
Semi is still technically alive in the playoff race, so I assume he'll be picking up a replacement kicker for Elliott's bye this week. Sure, Goodwin posting only 1.3 points last night isn't that encouraging, but he is playing Gary here. He doesn't have to score a ton to beat Gary. Although if anybody in his starting lineup is going to miss Sunday's action, he'll need to pick up somebody else because his entire bench is either on a bye, hurt, or benched in real life. That last one is you, Jameis.

I suppose it would be fitting for Julio to finally score a TD against the fake team that traded him away, but the real team he's playing, Washington, is pretty good on defense and just made a trade to shore up their secondary. Plus it's in Washington and Ryan usually struggles outside in cooler temps. Gary's most reliable player this week is probably Justin Tucker. 

I wish I could get a lot more worked up about the fact that somebody is going to technically win this game and weakly limp to a better record than me, but...ah, fuck it. Maybe acceptance is already here.

THE PICK: F 68 - LBJ 50


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-1) v. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (4-4)
Breida's poor showing last night won't really matter since Cam and Gurley might combine for 60 this week. On the other hand, both AP and White go against terrible defenses. Back to the first hand, Scott is starting Kelvin Benjamin even though he seemingly hates playing football and has Nathan Peterman as his QB. That is not a good combination. Plus, he has Ben and AB on the road in Baltimore, which is always tough times. 

The only problem Bri has at this point is fighting off boredom. His roster is at a point where he doesn't really have to make any moves, and there aren't any superstar receivers still available anyway. He has a 2.5 game lead on the #1 seed race with 6 games left and could have a bye clinched before the doubleheader in Week 12. He also has a 2.5 game division lead and beat both Meyers and Barker the first time around, so they'd really have to make up ground to pass him. 

Although...maybe he'll feel pressured to make a move after a rare sub-100 point effort this week.

Hopefully he doesn't kill time by filling his mind with all the ways he could lose in the playoffs and turn this into a wasted season.

THE PICK: TKSMB 91 - TDHAF 72


WTTK? (5-3) v. ASSTANNER (2-6)
My most likely road to the playoffs at this point would be winning my division, which is going to get a lot harder if McCamey can start a tight end with a quarterback nobody has ever heard of and still get 17 points out of the deal. Speaking of, my god is the Jon Gruden second epoch off to a marvelous start. I really think he's trying to make Oakland fans hate the team so they won't miss them when they move to Las Vegas.

And while we're on the subject of dogshit prime time game, what are we supposed to do on Monday with Dallas/Tennessee? Read a book? Talk to our kids? I'm going to be on the road again this weekend, so the two Week 9 games I'll actually get to see are last night's and Monday's? Maybe I catch the second half of Sunday night. Woof.

Anyway, after Kittle's start, it remains to be seen whether or not Chris will pick up a defense to replace the Colts this week and honestly, why bother? I'd like to pick Chris for the wild upset with Funchess getting some against the Bucs and Gordon getting deep on the back, but then I look at Trubisky, Crowell, and Cooper and can't see it.

Not to mention McCamey's guys. 

THE PICK: WTTK 105 - AT 67


ANIMAL HOUSE (5-3) v. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (5-3)
Tim is going to win this game. Tim is going to be 6-3.

And I'll tell you another thing for free. It's not going to be particularly close.

THE PICK: SS 108 - AH 83


RUSSELMANIA (1-7) v. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-3)
Larry has been waiting for the other shoe to drop on his season for weeks now, and losing to a 1-7 team would certainly clunk on the floor pretty loudly. He did manage to squeeze a replacement DST and K onto his team this week with 9 cents to spare.

Kenyan Drake is back in the starting lineup after putting up 20 on the bench last week, so expect a 3 from him this week. But Evans, Landry, and Murray should be good, and why not try Anthony Miller with Robinson out this week? 

I don't like a single option on Barker's team this week, and I don't think he does either.

THE PICK: TWR 94 - RM 68