Friday, October 11, 2019

AFFL Week 6 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 12-12

How insane was last week? Semi broke the single-game scoring record and now has the 2nd-best single-game score in league history. He broke the record and didn't even win the week!

You don't who didn't score a lot of points, though? Yeah, you know. So it was time for drastic changes. Heads had to roll. So long, Baker. It was fun while it lasted, which really wasn't that long. As you can tell from these lyrics, Baker's taking the breakup pretty hard.




RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (2-3) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2)
Gary is now 2-3 and has scored 124, 115, and 99 in his 3 losses. He's scored 129 and 61 in his 2 wins. I really, really am not going to get into a schedule thing, but I am amused it's happening to other people now. The 3rd- and 4th-highest totals this week both lost. Last week, the 3rd- and 4th-lowest scores both won. (Credit to numbers guy to Bri Williams for the Week 4 note)

But I think Gary is going to come to his loss this week a little more honestly. He's way too invested in a bad Falcons team that might have an extremely bad road loss this week, Kamara is dinged up and not getting free space from Teddy B. and Curtis Samuel is going to put D.J. Moore in his shadow in London.

Tyreek Hill may return this week and when Saquon returns next week, this Death Star will be fully operational. Samuel has been overdue for a breakout all season, and an 18-point game is coming Sunday. Ingram will score, Dak will torch the Jets, and Tevin Coleman will keep it rolling against the Rams.

I was hoping to just stay at .500 with Saquon and Tyreek out. I'll definitely take 2 games over.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RFD 85


CHUBBY CHASERS (1-4) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-2)
I say this empathy and understanding. That's a tough break on Baker. Clearly in franchising Odell, I was also in on some Browns offense this year, and it is just not happening. Brian is starting new acquisition Jameis over Minshew this week, and I'm not sure Jameis is going to be the calm, steady presence at QB that Brian was hoping for.

Thing is, Brian is not giving up Chubb or Keenan for picks (believe me, I asked) and it's not unrealistic that he could actually make a run and get back into it.

(Side note: I feel like in past years, 1-4 is the official starting gun for selling off your team for picks. Is hanging on to Chubb and Keenan because he'll have them next year the changing of the guard around picks value?)

I'm not ruling out something weird happening in Cleveland to Seattle this Sunday, Hollywood Brown hasn't practiced all week, and I'm not counting on the Devlin-JuJu connection just yet.

A good way to get back into the race is to start beating the teams ahead of you, and Brian takes the first step in the right direction this week.

THE PICK: CC 89 - LBJ 80


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-2) vs. WTTK? (4-1)
The red crosses spattered across Larry's lineup make it look like the battlefield in Gone With The Wind. Or, for you simpletons, that time Homer put a tramampoline in the backyard and they did a reference to that. Gurley probably won't play, but at least he has Malcolm Brown on the bench. But if Kirk and DJ are out as well, it's off to the free agent list for ye!

Interesting note from last week - Austin Ekeler set the record for the most receptions with the fewest yards. He had 15 catches for 86 yards, which is good for 16.1 in our new format. 7.5 points just for a bunch of 5 yards catches. I'm not saying whether it's good or bad, it's just curious.

Joe Mixon is another weird player. I think almost anybody would've drafted him if they could a couple of years ago, anybody would've put him a contract, and now McCamey isn't even playing him.

McCamey has faced the 2nd-fewest points on his way to this 4-1 record, and nothing is going to change this week. CBS has these two teams only 1 point apart, which I think is absurd.

THE PICK: WTTK 101 - TWR 77


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-3)
Scott's highest-scoring "player" - by 40 points! - is the Patriots defense. That has GOT to be a first in fantasy football at any point beyond Week 1. That defense has been his best weekly scorer twice already this season and they'll do it for a third time this week. That will mean Scott is going to 2-4 with his DST being his best player 50% of the time. What a life!

I can't imagine even the satisfaction Bri felt breaking the league scoring record 3 days after complaining that his team wasn't really going downhill. And let me tell, he's only barely slowing down this week. An entire lineup poised to completely go off again.

THE PICK: TKSMB 119 - TDHAF 90


ANIMAL HOUSE (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-3)
Meyers got off to a great start last night, but McCaffrey faces a surprisingly decent Tampa run defense (I'm aware he also catches passes), and every other matchup is poor to middling. Meyers has the inside track on the 2020 #1 pick right now.

Except...I think both 1-4 teams win and move to 2-4 this week. Tim just has absolutely nothing going this week. Meyers doesn't either, but at least he's off to a good start.

I offered Tim Odell for Aaron Jones and a middle pick and never heard back either way.

THE PICK: AH 86 - SS 70


ASSTANNER (4-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (3-2)
I also offered Barker Odell for Hopkins straight up. No go.

CBS has this as a 50/50 game at the moment, but Chris currently doesn't have an active defense. And with only $0.13 of cap space available, literally the only defense he can afford to replace the Raiders without making other roster moves. The one defense he could actually afford - the Niners - belongs to Tim right now. Talk about trade leverage! Chris might be on his way to the AFFL's first ever roster fine for starting a dead spot.

Thing is, he wants a defense because both he and Barker are loaded with great matchups and there should be a ton of points in this one. Golladay could be slowed by Jaire Alexander, and Ito needs to get chances instead of Devonta, but everybody else is looking G-R-E-A-T. Barker has 3 guys going in the ATL-ARI game, which is another time this season he's had a bunch of guys playing in one weird game, but this should be the week Hopkins finally breaks out.

THE PICK: TNB 93 - AT 89




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