LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 25-23
Chris astutely observed (2 weeks after I did) that there hadn't been a lot of trades this year. Gary astutely responded (2 weeks after I did) that he thought it was because every team was still in the hunt and not ready to sell off. Great analysis, guys!
I do think we're going to have a pretty frantic Tuesday and Wednesday because 3-4 teams are going to pack it in after this week and try to sell for as many picks as they can get before the freeze. But for now, still nobody wants to share you, NFL players.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (5-4) vs. WTTK? (4-5)
Mike Barker offered me Rex Burkhead and a 2nd for Mark Ingram. That's really just offering me a 2nd, which is fine. I countered with Ingram for Tyler Lockett, which was swiftly rejected. Lockett did go off last week for 33 points, outscoring Ingram by 20 points in Week 9. And that put Lockett ahead of Ingram on YTD date points by...20. Barker has a lot of WR and desperately needs a RB. I have RB to spare and could use a WR. Made sense to me at least.
McCamey has dropped 4 games in a row and it's about to be 5. With his upcoming 4-6 record, you'd think McCamey might be making a lot of trades come Tuesday, but he'll still only be 1.5 games out of his division lead. So he has a chance. But he'd have a much better chance if he had listened to me a month ago and made a bunch of splash trades with the cap space he had. I told him to take advantage of the soft schedule he started out with, but instead he waited until he lost a bunch of games and then loaded up on expensive backup kickers and QBs. Now he has $0.23 of cap space left and very difficult go/no go decision coming up next week.
Godwin is due to go off this week, but Kittle might miss the game. With Rivers, Ekeler, and Waller letting Bill down on Thursday night, and all of my guys except Odell ready to go off, swapping in John Brown for Kittle just won't be enough.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 105 - WTTK 83
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (5-4) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-4)
Gary should change his team name to John Wick because yeah, he's thinking he's back. Matt Ryan is back, Alvin Kamara is back, and Devonta Freeman is somehow back after getting cut, then picked up by McCamey, then traded to McCamey. I mean...did I dream those email alerts?
Did you know that Derrick Henry is the #9 RB right now? That's an exceptionally quiet accumulation of points. But Tennessee is going to play Dion Lewis a lot more this week as they pass to catch up to the Chiefs, and the Saints defense will suppress Ryan, Freeman, and Julio.
Did you know that Mike Evans is currently the #1 scoring WR and has 2 30-point games and 1 40-point game? He should go off again this week and Christian Kirk, DJ, and Mahomes will all come along for the ride.
Except the Thursday players, Gurley, and Brett Maher, everybody in this matchup plays in the 1pm slot, so this one will be done early. I'm sure watching SNF and MNF when he needs points is an incredibly stressful experience for Gary as he lives and dies with every single play. But this week I assume he will realize that Brett Maher is not going to score 43 points before the Cowboys game starts. Meanwhile, the other owner in this matchup who easily gets the vapors, Larry, will go from thinking his season is over after dropping 2 in a row to thinking he might defend his title.
THE PICK: TWR 110 - RFD 80
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-6) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS (4-5)
Brian has no chance of winning his division, so he must have the win to keep even slim playoff hopes alive. He will be relying on one Bill, one Brown, and one Dolphin to help him pull it off. Admittedly, it doesn't look good on paper.
On the other hand, can Tim rely count on Jared Goff and Robert Woods to do much outside in the cold against a frisky Steelers defense? And Sammy Watkins has once again pulled off his patented move, having a huge game early in the season to make everybody think this is the year, then doing jack shit the rest of the way. Tim is still starting him this week.
If both of these teams, two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, are 4-6 after this week, they technically still have a chance. If Tim wins and moves to 5-5, he'd have a playoff spot at the moment. If Brian loses and moves to 3-7, he'll at least have the peace of knowing it's finally over. I'm really not sure which result he'd prefer this week.
I guess...uh...Tim wins?
THE PICK: SS 78 - CC 73
LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-5) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-6)
A.J. Green is still out this week, and here are Scott's options on the bench to replace him: Dez Bryant and 5 guys on a bye. So he needs to make a move to pick up somebody else to play RB/WR, and he needs another move to replace his team MVP, the Patriots defense. He currently has $0.10 in cap space. And he has to do something so he doesn't incur $10 in dead lineup fines. This is really going to be fun to watch.
I was thinking there was a legitimate chance Scott could break the record for fewest points scored this week until I looked in the league history a little more. The top 5 lowest scores in history are all in the 20s. (#1 is technically a 0, I'm assuming from a bad roster in the 2000s). But even in 2018, Brian Barker posted like a 34, and in 2017 Larry had a 26. So Scott won't have the lowest score in history this week, but it will be unbelievably bad.
Semi, desperate for a win, gets a gift this week and will jump to the top spot in the bottom division.
THE PICK: LBJ 89 - TDHAF 40
ANIMAL HOUSE (5-4) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (5-4)
After multiple years of having the most points against, I'm fine with Mike Barker being above .500 because he has the fewest points against so far.
I'm not too sure what else to say about this impending blowout, except it's wild that Meyers is about to win 5 in a row and get right back into the hunt after looking dead in the water at 1-4.
THE PICK: AH 112 - TNB 71
ASSTANNER (8-1) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-6)
Speaking of points against, Bri Williams has faced 1081 points this season, an average of 120 points for his opponents each week. He's the only team to score 1000+ this season and is 3-6. If he wins this game, he's still alive and if anybody could close out the season with 5 straight wins, it's him. If he loses, Tuesday could see a Dalvin Cook sweepstakes that would be so high stakes it might make ESPN. Bri could basically crown a champion by deciding who he trades Dalvin to. He should demand multiple picks in multiple years. He should demand one draft pick to even return your first email asking Dalvin's price.
But man, nothing like trying to save your season with franchise QB DeShaun Watson on a bye. Nothing like relying on Jameis Winston to not throw 4 picks and score 5 points. Josh Jacobs got out to a great start, but was balanced out by Melvin Gordon. Singletary and Kupp should do well, as should Kelce, but Lamar will go wild against the Bengals.
The Sunday Night game, obviously, will be enormous with Dalvin on one side and Zeke and Amari on the other. But Chris will also have Carson standing by for MNF. Bri will need to have a massive lead to feel secure after the afternoon games wrap up.
Man, this is huge. I really want Bri to win. Partly it's always good when Chris loses, partly because I want him to still be alive and not trigger DalvinFest 2019.
So here's my prediction. Here's a wild one.
Bri will be winning Sunday and looking good. Then Dalvin will get hurt, Zeke and Amari will take the lead, and Carson will run it up Monday with 10 more points. Bri's entire season will go down in flames, leaving a massive crater behind. There won't be enough clarity on Dalvin's injury by Wednesday night for anybody to make a big enough offer.
THE PICK: AT 122 - TKSMB 103
Friday, November 8, 2019
Friday, November 1, 2019
AFFL Week 9 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 21-21
I can't get out of the .500s!
Actually, I have a half-baked theory that will probably never fully bake, but I think the standings are so close this season because more points are being scored and individual matchups are becoming more random.
Last year, teams averaged 87 PPG. Through 8 weeks this season, teams are averaging 99 PPG. And I'm sure there's somewhere to look this up, but it also seems like more guys than ever are posting 25+ points in a game, and even more 35+ point games. It's just shootouts all around and I don't see anything changing throughout the regular season or playoffs.
It makes each matchup more interesting and more games are coming down to the wire, but I don't know if it means anything beyond that.
Speaking of not always understanding what things mean...
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-5) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-4)
Tevin Coleman only scoring 5 points the week after he posted 35 was the most obvious thing ever, and yet it was impossible to bench him because of those 35 points. I wish those 35 points would've translated into a win, but Boswell had to miss that 54 yarder and that was that.
I also wish that Garoppolo didn't have his best game of the season last night, but I'm not too worried about this one. Dak and Saquon will have this game finished off for me in the first quarter Monday night.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 91 - TDHAF 74
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-4) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (4-4)
I am sure Gary never envisioned facing Tim in a must-win game to keep his playoff hopes going, knowing that if he lost it would present a potential tiebreaker problem down the line. But here we are in the year of Tim.
Fournette should run wild in England, Diggs will get loose in KC, and Aaron Jones will score in the Packers' home game in Los Angeles. Starting Rudolph is a pretty big problem for Tim, though. I'm sure Indy will just drop umbrella coverage and limit his deep balls.
On the other hand, it's not like Derrick Henry, Alshon, or Royce Freeman are gonna do a whole hell of a lot. I wouldn't expect much from Robby Anderson either since Miami is going to "upset" the Jets.
In other news, Gary picked up Rashaad Penny after I cut him last week, even though I traded a 5th round pick or something to Gary for Penny earlier this season. I'm sure this double dipping makes Gary positively giddy, even though Penny won't do anything for him in 2019, or in 2020 after he selects him with that extra 5th rounder.
You know all that extra scoring I mentioned in the intro? You're not going to find any of it in this game.
THE PICK: SS 75 - RFD 68
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-5)
As tight as the standings are and probably will remain, I still wouldn't want to be the first team to 6 losses. Watching Christian Kirk only score 2.6 points last night is a good head start on avoiding that loss.
This matchup features 4 players from IND/PIT on Sunday, and 3 of them are Colts. Larry is stacking Jacoby and T.Y. against Mack and JuJu. I don't really like any of their chances to do anything great.
BREAKING: T.Y. Hilton got hurt in practice and is going to miss 3-4 weeks. Corey Davis, come on down!
There are 3 more players from TB/SEA here, and I like Semi's Russ/Metcalf stack a lot better than Mike Evans. Semi keeps the dream alive for at least more one week.
THE PICK: LBJ 94 - TWR 77
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-5) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-4)
Meyers was down and out just a few weeks ago, but after blowing out Brian Barker this week, he's going to be above .500. Life is funny sometimes.
THE PICK: AH 105 - CC 66
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-5)
The Cam era has come to an ignominious close. Remember the good old days, when you could've traded for him for only seven 1st round picks? What a time.
Bri left Kenyan Drake on the bench last night, piling up 26.2 meaningless points. He might be slightly miffed about it now, but he'll have forgotten about it by Sunday night. Jacobs, Singletary, and Dalvin will all make up for it.
Tyler Lockett should score against Tampa, but everything Hopkins does gives a little back to Bri and DeShaun. Barker just doesn't have the firepower to keep up in this one.
THE PICK: TKSMNB 108 - TNB 86
WTTK? (4-4) vs. ASSTANNER (7-1)
CBS thinks this is going to be a 1-point game after Kittle put 16 last night. I disagree.
THE PICK: AT 101 - WTTK 85
SEASON: 21-21
I can't get out of the .500s!
Actually, I have a half-baked theory that will probably never fully bake, but I think the standings are so close this season because more points are being scored and individual matchups are becoming more random.
Last year, teams averaged 87 PPG. Through 8 weeks this season, teams are averaging 99 PPG. And I'm sure there's somewhere to look this up, but it also seems like more guys than ever are posting 25+ points in a game, and even more 35+ point games. It's just shootouts all around and I don't see anything changing throughout the regular season or playoffs.
It makes each matchup more interesting and more games are coming down to the wire, but I don't know if it means anything beyond that.
Speaking of not always understanding what things mean...
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-5) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-4)
Tevin Coleman only scoring 5 points the week after he posted 35 was the most obvious thing ever, and yet it was impossible to bench him because of those 35 points. I wish those 35 points would've translated into a win, but Boswell had to miss that 54 yarder and that was that.
I also wish that Garoppolo didn't have his best game of the season last night, but I'm not too worried about this one. Dak and Saquon will have this game finished off for me in the first quarter Monday night.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 91 - TDHAF 74
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-4) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (4-4)
I am sure Gary never envisioned facing Tim in a must-win game to keep his playoff hopes going, knowing that if he lost it would present a potential tiebreaker problem down the line. But here we are in the year of Tim.
Fournette should run wild in England, Diggs will get loose in KC, and Aaron Jones will score in the Packers' home game in Los Angeles. Starting Rudolph is a pretty big problem for Tim, though. I'm sure Indy will just drop umbrella coverage and limit his deep balls.
On the other hand, it's not like Derrick Henry, Alshon, or Royce Freeman are gonna do a whole hell of a lot. I wouldn't expect much from Robby Anderson either since Miami is going to "upset" the Jets.
In other news, Gary picked up Rashaad Penny after I cut him last week, even though I traded a 5th round pick or something to Gary for Penny earlier this season. I'm sure this double dipping makes Gary positively giddy, even though Penny won't do anything for him in 2019, or in 2020 after he selects him with that extra 5th rounder.
You know all that extra scoring I mentioned in the intro? You're not going to find any of it in this game.
THE PICK: SS 75 - RFD 68
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-5)
As tight as the standings are and probably will remain, I still wouldn't want to be the first team to 6 losses. Watching Christian Kirk only score 2.6 points last night is a good head start on avoiding that loss.
This matchup features 4 players from IND/PIT on Sunday, and 3 of them are Colts. Larry is stacking Jacoby and T.Y. against Mack and JuJu. I don't really like any of their chances to do anything great.
BREAKING: T.Y. Hilton got hurt in practice and is going to miss 3-4 weeks. Corey Davis, come on down!
There are 3 more players from TB/SEA here, and I like Semi's Russ/Metcalf stack a lot better than Mike Evans. Semi keeps the dream alive for at least more one week.
THE PICK: LBJ 94 - TWR 77
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-5) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-4)
Meyers was down and out just a few weeks ago, but after blowing out Brian Barker this week, he's going to be above .500. Life is funny sometimes.
THE PICK: AH 105 - CC 66
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-5)
The Cam era has come to an ignominious close. Remember the good old days, when you could've traded for him for only seven 1st round picks? What a time.
Bri left Kenyan Drake on the bench last night, piling up 26.2 meaningless points. He might be slightly miffed about it now, but he'll have forgotten about it by Sunday night. Jacobs, Singletary, and Dalvin will all make up for it.
Tyler Lockett should score against Tampa, but everything Hopkins does gives a little back to Bri and DeShaun. Barker just doesn't have the firepower to keep up in this one.
THE PICK: TKSMNB 108 - TNB 86
WTTK? (4-4) vs. ASSTANNER (7-1)
CBS thinks this is going to be a 1-point game after Kittle put 16 last night. I disagree.
THE PICK: AT 101 - WTTK 85
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