AFFL Week 4 Preview

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 14-4

It feels a little dramatic to call this a critical week for a lot of teams, but unlike last season when most teams muddied their way to a .500 record 1/2 of the way through this season, we could be seeing some real separation after 35% of the games have been played.

If all of CBS' favorites come through this week, the standings will show:

• Five teams at 3-1
• Three teams at 1-3
• One truly pathetic team at 0-4

"But it's a long season!" you impotently whinge at me. That's true, it is. And for some of you it's going to feel extremely long. I went back and checked the record and in the past 10 years, the 6 seed has been clinched with a 7-7 record. The other 4 years required an 8-6 record to get in.

Now, of course all teams are outside of their divisions for the next 8 games and one team's win is another team's loss, and anything can happen, etc, etc. But in my always measured and humbled opinion, there's more a talent divide between the top and bottom teams than usual, so it will be tougher to make up ground, especially with the mighty Dead Drop Division roaming free and laying waste to your towns and teams.

If he falls to 0-4 this week, Chris would likely need to go 8-2 through the rest of the season - including a double game week - to get the 6 seed. Them Barker Boys would need to go 7-3. Not easy, especially when those teams would be 1-3 or 0-4 for a reason. That reason being, specifically, that they suck deluxe.

Throw in the extra factors of the 2019 draft being a barren wasteland and the non-playoffs teams not having any good players to sell off for picks anyway and...yeah. Some must-win games out there this week. Come Tuesday, we could be looking at a quarter of the league and saying...




THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-1) vs. ASSTANNER (0-3)
Adam Thielen revenge game!

Look, I wouldn't say I was HOPING to start off the week down 55, but I ain't sweatin' it! Shoot, because of how the schedule is set up this week, I'm going to be down 104-25 when the 1pm games wrap up. But that's when Chris will be done and I'll just be getting started.

Full marks to Chris for making a late switch yesterday and sliding Goff into the starting lineup. He might have done it 36 minutes before kickoff and was rewarded with 36 points. That's great. I'm always happy when good things happen for Chris. He deserves it.

But it seems reasonable to me that Brees, Beckham, and Gio can match Goff, Thielen, and Godwin. Zeke and Saquon will cancel out, and I like my chances with Carson and John Brown over Tyler Boyd and Dede Westbrook. Throw in my advantage and K and DST and I'm feeling good. Feeling real good.

Odell Beckham hasn't found the end zone yet this season, something he is sure to remedy this week. Whatever celebration he does, picture me doing the same after that Harrison Butker FG Monday night clinches the win.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 108 - AT 104


HEISENBERG (2-1) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-0)
Todd Haley might be a weirdo who gets in bar fights at places where Nazis drink IC Light, but he was clever enough to split Le'Veon out wide to get him matched up on a linebacker. Cardinals OC Mike McCoy (who flamed out in San Diego) and HC Steve Wilks (who is currently flaming out in Arizona), keep pounding David Johnson between the tackles.

Worse, last week against the Bears, they put Josh Rosen in for his first NFL snaps during the two minute drill of a two point game. Worse than that, when DJ missed a 2nd down blitz pickup, the Cards took him off the field to patiently explain to him to not get beat on blitzes, which meant Chase Edmonds was in for a third down the Cards didn't convert before losing the game.

McCoy and Wilks know more about football than me. I would hope. But how fucking stupid do you have to be to have your rookie QB start his QB with 1:48 left and then take the team's best player off the field to explain something that A) He knows and B) Can be covered in Monday's film session? I mean...fucking moronic.

Per Matt Berry, assumedly per NFL Stats, Royce Freeman has more carries than DJ right now. So does Alfred Morris. So do BOTH Titans RBs.

The point of this is that I don't think this is DJ's year.

Which is a long way of saying that it's amazing that Larry is 3-0 with DJ and Dalvin having done nothing so far. Or perhaps he's already running on fumes and is about to fall apart like the Bluesmobile in Daley Plaza. Benching Cook and Murray, the only two guys on either team who didn't light it up last night was a good start. Mahomes will continue to roll, and Landry should be nice against the Oakland defense, but I don't really like the rest of the lineup here. I do not have faith that the Dolphins will move to 4-0 against the Patriots with Drake churning out 4th quarter yards.

Gary should bench Lynch against a good Browns defense, but it doesn't really matter if he does or not because all of his other matchups are sweet, juicy plums.

THE PICK: HB 103 - TWR 72


LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-2) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-1)
Speaking of bad coaching, Jeff Fisher being the only guy who could stop Todd Gurley is going to be joked about like Dean Smith being the only man to hold Michael Jordan under 20 PPG. Just awful.

Gurley had a smooth 21 points last night and it didn't even seem like he did that much. Probably because 14 of those points came off of his TD and a single reception he turned into a 65-yard gain.

The good news for Bri this week (besides that he's facing somebody who needs to rally just to get back to 0) is that he can't possibly screw up his QB decision this week because Cam is on a bye. I would probably start Breida over Miller since Beathard is going to hit him with about 20 dump off passes, but Bri could probably bench both of them, leave that starting spot unfilled, and still run away with this one. In fact, he should start Cam on his bye just as a big flex in Semi's face.

Starting off the week with negative points is just so, so funny to me and credit to Semi for beating Tim's -3 from Week 2.

If Lindsay actually does something this week and outpaces Freeman again, I'll officially be a believer. I want to be an Allen Robinson believer very badly but as much as I like him getting 15 targets a game, if 5 are at his ankles and 5 more are over his head, what does it really matter? Matt Nagy must haaaaaaaaaaate what Trubisky is doing back there while KC and LA run wild. Reminder: the Bears traded up to pick Trubisky #2 in the same draft that had Pat Mahomes. Fuckin' Todd Blackledge over Marino type stuff.

God, as I really look at these lineups, I want to call for the upset so much. I really think this is going to be a lot closer than CBS makes it out to be. Or even I made it out to be 50 words back. I just can't get past Semi hearing the starting gun and then running backwards.

THE PICK: TKSMB 89 - LBJ 84


SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (1-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-2)
Barker got 28.8 points out of Kirk Cousins last night, but I think he should lose 5 of them. There should be a 5-point shame penalty any time you bench your franchise player. Might as well change the team from Russellmania to Kissing Kirk Kousins or Sup Cous? or something. A real slap in the face of the franchise.

Also benched this week is Amari Cooper, so expect 15 useless points from him this week. Shady McCoy, who's back in the starting lineup for some reason, would love to have 15 points on the season, let alone this week. Gronk is banged up and getting bracketed because Josh Gordon isn't ready to play yet, and there will soon be a game in which Buck Allen doesn't score a TD and only posts 3 points. Rex Burkhead, who was totally going to be good THIS year, has been sent to IR.

On other the hand, Tim's QB this week is CJ Beathard, which...Tim does realize that just because the Niners are replacing Garoppolo with Beathard doesn't mean he has to as well, right? I'm aware that Tim has a little cap coziness with 2 kickers rostered plus Howard costing $2.59 and a super expensive defense, but this is a must win week. He really wants to ride with Beathard?

You know what's great, though? Tim's actually going to pull it off.

THE PICK: SS 84 - RM 76


WTTK? (1-2) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-1)
Meyers hasn't yet put James Conner under contract, which seems a little odd since he's all but guaranteed to be the starting Steelers RB next season. And going back to last week's Bell trade talk for a second, I tried to figure out possible destinations for him either this season or next.

To be a viable landing spot, I looked for teams with:

• A need in the backfield
• Cap space
• The required, let's say, "sense of adventure" to sign a long term FA back

If you ask me, and you implicitly are, I'd say that leads us to:

• The entire AFC East
• Colts
• Raiders
• Bucs
• Niners
• Seahawks

See the diatribe above about coaching and David Johnson and you decide if all of those places are equally attractive. 

Oh hey, remember two weeks ago when Animal House looked absolutely unbeatable? That's going to seem like two years ago after this week. The Dead Drop Division is out here just slaughtering lesser teams!

THE PICK: WTTK? 115 - AH 93


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-2)
Brandin Cooks rewarded Barker for his new franchise player designation with 18 big points. Also, for the record, I found out during trade talks last week that Barker was planning on dumping Dak so my Dak attack in the Week 3 Review had nothing to do with the change.

I am really not sure what to make of this matchup. It features THREE tight ends, two pass catching 3rd down backs, two AFC North quarterbacks, two superstar receivers, and Sterling Shepherd. I guess it depends on whether we're getting a classic 13-10 Steelers/Ravens game, or something closer to last year's 31-27 barn burner.

Man, somebody's gotta win this game, I guess. Hopkins is listed as Questionable this week and although I'm sure he'll play, I'm going to make that my determining factor.

THE PICK: TDHAF 74 - TNB 68

AFFL Week 3 Review

WEEK 3 PICKS: 5-1

THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 116.4 - WTTK? 83.9

Admittedly, I texted Larry Sunday morning cautioning that I had a bad feeling that I was heading for a 70-point week and a loss. It seems that sometimes even I can't believe how good and deep my team is. I got rushing TDs from Barkley, the newly-added Gio, Alf, Royce, Carson, Collins, and TWO rushing TDs from Drew Brees of all people. Sure, 4 of those TDs were on the bench, but I ain't sweatin' it. It's like complaining about having a bunch of money in my savings account. It's nice to know it's there when I want to finally use it.

I even got a TD from Marquise Goodwin in his first game back. That's nice. Thank you, Marquise. Kenny Golladay also continued his rise to the #1 Lions receiver. Heck, I've cracked 100 points in 2 out of 3 games this season and Odell doesn't have a TD yet. There is still slack in the line, folks!

And I needed this points explosion to get to 2-1 through the first round of divisional since the Dead Drop division is the most potent by far. Our teams have combined for 1,089 points compared to the the Central (Since renamed the Wee Baby Krogmann division. Lame.) with 1,023 and the Western with 1,002. This is big boy pretend football in this division!

Credit to McCamey for starting Tannehill over Luck, a move that I never would've considered, but one that worked out since Tannehill doubled up Luck. The bad news is now Tannehill is officially McCamey's QB. The other good thing for McCamey is that he lost by so much that him leaving Calvin Ridley's 33.5 points on the bench was not the only reason he lost. 

Chris Hogan, who has scored 1, 16, and 3 points so far this season and is currently the 48th-best WR is now available for trade if you're interested. And all it will cost you is a pick and a player! A good pick, assumedly, since McCamey took Hogan in the 2nd round this season.

HEISENBERG 124 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 91.8

I know people get annoyed with me for being noisily good, but I promise that Gary is absolutely insufferable right now. He is DYING for somebody to ask him about his team just so how knew Stills would bounce back this week due to Oakland's secondary coverage in early games or something but even if he didn't he was going to play Mike Williams, who also went off. Don't give him the satisfaction.

Speaking of, I think I have a clue on Gary's football intel source. He actually drafted Alvin Kamara in the 11th round last year, despite him being a 3rd-string RB with very little preseason buzz at the time. But a handful of fantasy experts/scouts were on Kamara all summer, and so one of these few are most likely Gary's source. I'm getting close to figuring this out and gaining leverage.

So...is it too early in the season to point out that Tim scored 91 points but dropped to 1-2 in the toughest division while Bri Williams scored 83 to go 2-1 in the worst division? Are we ready to have this discussion again?


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 85.3 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 66.4
I first thought it was absurd that CBS prognosticated this game to be 96-94, then I foretold that they would score even MORE than that, and then these jerkos went out and just bored everybody to sleep. Philip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch after posting 2 points, Julio has 3 TDs in his last 19 games even though Ridley had 3 just this week, Tyreek only had 50 yards despite his team posting 35 points in the FIRST HALF, and the vaunted Vikings D somehow gave up 27 points in Josh Allen's first ever start. Take away Will Fuller's big game and LBJ doesn't even crack 60. These are the kind of games you are bound to have with the 1-4 run and shoot, I can tell you from experience. There are far too many receivers who post nice numbers on the season but go 2-23-4-9-18 from week to week. It's exhausting.

Larry needed all of 5 minutes for Mike Evans to seal the win on Monday night, and I don't know how much luckier you can get than moving to 3-0 despite 1 point from Kenyan Drake. The same Kenyan Drake who was the Start of the Week in CBS' Start 'Em / Sit 'Em article this week. Pretty good pick, boys. Pretty good resource you're giving us there.

Like many of you, I assume, I eyeballed picking up Latavius Murray for a tasty, tasty start against the terrible, terrible Bills but was scared off by his $1.44 price tag. I have no idea why Latavius Murray is so damn expensive, but I'm glad he is because it kept me away from that 4 carry, 3.1 points debacle. And how Larry squeezed $1.44 under the cap when he was already right up against is beyond me. I think we should all expect a blank K spot in the lineup around, say, Week 9? 

David Johnson scored a TD to salvage a day in which he only had 60 total yards and watched from the sidelines as Chase Edmonds took late snaps. Didn't matter this week, but I'd expect it to matter soon. And hard.


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 82.3 - ANIMAL HOUSE 80.8
Bri was just 2 Boswell doinks away from losing this game, so I'm sure he's pretty relieved that his 3rd straight incorrect decision to start DeShaun over Cam wasn't the deciding factor. Smartly, he did listen to me on playing Breida over Miller and that 1.6 difference between the two was the difference between Bri sneaking out a win instead of losing by 0.1 point. You're welcome, Bri. I'm happy to be of service and I hope this helps build a trust between us.

Now, if you'll allow me a rare and momentary diversion to praise myself for a second, I'd like to point out that Meyers scored 118 and 122 in his first two weeks, and CBS predicted he'd score 101 this week. But I took a cold, hard look at his lineup and said, "Hey, you know what? I'll tell you what I think. I think Animal House is only going to score 77 this week." They had 77 on the button late in the 4th quarter until two late Conner runs pushed them up to 80. Still, correctly predicting the highest-scoring team in the league would falter this week? That's pretty good stuff.

Also, please note in the preview where it reads that Bri only beats Meyers when Meyers scores 80 points or fewer.

Now, I will let you in on a little secret. The point predictions are less exact figures and more like grading curves. If I say a team is going to post 113-125 or so, that's an A++++. 70-77 is a C, 60 or below is an F, or as some people refer to it, a Barker. You get the picture. Anyway, pretty great stuff by me this week.

On another note, I'm not as bent out of shape by the Bell holdout as most Yinzers. But I will say if they end up trading Bell like was discussed this week and Meyers ends up with TWO starting backs instead of Bell simply replacing Conner...I mean, that's going to be really unfair for the rest of us. 


THE NIGHT BOYS 73.9 - RUSSELLMANIA 47.5
While I'm taking a victory lap on the preview, I also said Fitzpatrick would be taking his own victory lap on Monday night because this one would be wrapped up on Sunday. Lo and behold, the Rams put a cap on Keenan as (obviously) predicted and BB fell into the Amari Cooper trap despite all warnings. I also said that his team would post 51 points this week, which ended up being a little generous but still a lot more accurate than the 85 CBS hung on him. 

I'm not going to go so far as to say Russellmania is awful this season. There are a lot of talented players on this team and some solid ones too. The problem is, as you can see by the weekly scores of 94-56-47, and bench scores of 53-35-21, that it's impossible to know who will do what when and get the starting lineup right. Brian might smoke you in a given week or you might have him beat by 3pm. He might rally to go 10-4 this season, he might end up 4-10. Anything is possible.

The only guarantee, really, is a lot of complaining on his part. 

Oh hey, here's a fun stat. Through 3 weeks, Shady McCoy, Gronk, and Amari Cooper have combined for 48 points. Saquon Barkley has 47.3.

As for The Night Boys, it's nice to get your first win of the season with only 74 points. 

Dak Prescott has now thrown for under 200 yards in 5 straight games. The last Cowboys QB to pull of this anti-feat? QUINCY CARTER. 

Now imagine if Quincy Carter was somebody's franchise player.

By the way, we're only 3 weeks into the season and the Barker family has combined for 2 sub-50 point weeks. 


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91.1 - ASSTANNER 80.9
Scott would like us to all be impressed that he's scored 85 and 92 points the last two weeks despite the fact that those are the 7th- and 4th-highest scores in those weeks, respectively, despite the fact that he's the 7th-highest scoring team overall, despite the fact that rule changes and passing emphasis have made this the highest-scoring NFL season ever, and despite the fact that if you switched his schedule with Tim's or McCamey's and put him in an actually good division, he'd just be 1-2.

Wow! Slightly below average scoring with an injured running back missing games and schedule luck?! Wow! What do you say, Kid At Some Party?

But in the interest of fairness, here are some things I got wrong about this game despite ultimately getting the win right: AB did not score 23, Ben did not have 28, Scott was not losing 70-20 at one point (just 70-40), and neither the Vikings nor Jags won in blowouts.

I'd like to say that Chris would've won if he started Godwin and Funchess over Jackson and Westbrook, though it's unfair to think anybody would start Godwin and not Jackson. More likely to play both Bucs receivers against the Steelers, which would NOT have been enough to win. So it's not really a fair and accurate charge.

Still, Chris could've won if he didn't screw up his lineup. 

AFFL Week 3 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 9-3

As we close out our first pass through the divisional games, we have some real heat coming up this week! McCamey trying to win one to shut me up, Barker vs. Barker and Albert vs. Albert with two of them trying to avoid falling to 0-3 at the hands of a blood relative, and the two highest-scoring teams in the league jockeying for the inside track for the #1 seed. This week's gonna be a real...




WTTK? (1-1) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-1)
In regards to grabbing Gio, I'd say 75% was about what he can bring me in the next 2-4 weeks, 25% was about cutting McCamey off at the pass this week since he has Mixon.

Maybe 50/50.

Ok, 25/75. And Gio will absolutely be on the trading block after this week if you're interested. I'm sure the Bengals are correct and a running back having surgery to clean up knee cartilage will only miss 3 weeks. Sounds about right.

Brees should outscore Luck by a good bit, and while I have visions of the Texans defensive line getting to Barkley before he's actually received the handoff from Eli, Odell is due for a touchdown or two when one of those slants finally pop. Golladay will get his as the Lions try to keep pace with the Pats, and if he gets the greenlight, I'm putting Marquise Goodwin in for Alex Collins. If Goodwin is no good, I guess I'll hold my nose and go with Collins, hoping he gets a TD or something. Or maybe Brown with the same hopes. I gotta say, my running back depth shallowed out pretty quickly this season. I need a few key injuries to get me back in the pink! Not that I'm...uh...rooting for strangers to get hurt like a psychopath or anything. Definitely not.

McCamey made the good and obvious call to slot in Hogan with Mixon out, though I wonder if Gordon takes off any Hogan shine right away. Melvin Gordon is oustanding, though the Rams might slow him down a bit, and Davante should be just fine against Washington. I usually think playing a TE - besides Gronk and Kelce - in this league means you've screwed up your roster somehow, but there's a decent chance Kittle scores in the Kansas City BBQ Blowout planned for Sunday.

This should be a pretty decent matchup, but I have a big advantage at the bookend positions of QB, K, and DST. Jacksonville going after Blaine Gabbert? Oh man. Come Sunday night, I'll just be hoping Hogan doesn't outscore Golladay by like 12 points.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 92 - WTTK 77


SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER vs. HEISENBERG
I'm not sure everybody has picked up on the sixth sense I have for calling Timmy upsets. He and I just vibe throughout the universe, I guess. But the other thing about predicting those special shooting stars is that you can never do it twice in a row. Especially when Carlos Hyde scores 22 points on Thursday.

Full disclosure: I texted Gary Thursday afternoon to get on record that I was not in favor of playing Hyde. And I was right! Until, uh, Tyrod got hurt and The Fabulous Baker Boy came in and electrified the entire northeast corner of Ohio. Free Baker Bud Lights for everybody!

Speaking of Carlos Hyde, Gary included a 1st round pick in his trade package for Hyde last season. That pick eventually made its way to Brian Barker and turned into Amari Cooper. Just some minor intrigue, but I wonder if you could trade Cooper straight up for Hyde right now.

Anyway, I had this whole thing prepared on how I was ready to call for a second straight Tim upset (Tupset? Timpset?) if he put Garoppolo in over Smith, but forget it now, I guess. I don't even have a reason to discuss Stefon Diggs going up against a Bills secondary that's down a man because...Vontae Davis retired at halftime last week. I know we've all heard about this by now, but really. He quit at halftime! That's like some 1970s NBA shit you read about in a book. Just up and left. Amazing. I love it.

I still don't think Gary will be all that great this week outside of Hyde, but 22.3 points is an awful lot of cushion. Dang. I really wanted that upset.

THE PICK: HB 91 - SS 74


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (2-0) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-1)
Lawrence Schacht (SHuhkt) is 2-0 despite David Johnson doing less than nothing on a terrible team and Dalvin Cook tweaking his hamstring every week. But he's still scored 99 and 93 in the first two weeks, so maybe there's actually something here. I don't things will get any better for Johnson this week against Chicago, but maybe Cook can do something against Buffalo. Except...that might turn into a bye week halfway through the first quarter and the Vikings decide to run Latavius Murray to give Cook more time to snap back.

What those guys do or do not do might be irrelevant, though, with Pat Mahomes against the Niners and Mike Evans getting the Steelers. I...guess(?)...Evans will draw Artie Burns, who is like 8 inches shorter than he is? I guess that is what will happen.

And I gotta say, on Monday when I first noticed that CBS had this game tagged as like a 96-94, I thought it was totally absurd. Almost as absurd as last week when they said Drew Brees would only have 17 points and my whole team would only have 86. PAY-tently ridiculous predictions that both just happened to come true.

Semi spent $0.39 to bring in Tyrod Taylor for one week, have him lose one game, then ship him out in favor of Antonio Callaway, who is either going to supremely break out with Baker in the backfield or drive everybody insane with bad routes and bad hands.

I'm not fully buying the Philip Lindsay stuff after 2 games. The guy is only 5'7" and 187. This is just a little Tarik Cohen blip and that is a totally unbiased opinion utterly uninfluenced by my Royce Freeman contract. I mean it! But the Semi run and shoot offense is looking good this week and we're going to be watching Monday night to see if Mike Evans can cap off Larry's comeback and send him to 3-0. It's a yes from me, dog. Evans' 2 TD of the game in the 4th quarter will finish this one off.

THE PICK: TWR 102 - LBJ 98

***GODDAMMIT. I just read that Cook is officially out for Sunday. I'm gonna assume that Larry puts Marvin Jones in and adjust this prediction accordingly.***

THE PICK: TWR 99 - LBJ 98

***GODDAMMIT X2. Now Jones is questionable?!?***

THE PICK: LBJ 98 - TWR 90



THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-0)
When I first joined this league, Bri told me that either nobody beats Meyers except for him, or nobody beats him except for Meyers. I couldn't remember which one it was so I went and looked it up. From 2011-2013, the peak of the Cam/Arian Foster years, Bri 12, 11, and 11 games, winning one title and finishing as regular season champ the other two years.

(A cynic would note since his miraculously cheap Foster and AB contracts have disappeared, Bri has only posted double digit wins once in the past 4 years, but I'll leave it to you to be a cynic. That's not really my style.)

So as it turns out, in 2012 and 2013, Meyers beat Bri 5 times in a row, the final time coming in the playoffs. Bri had 6 regular season losses total in those 2 season and Meyers was responsible for 4 of them.

Bri snapped the streak in 2014 with a thrilling 71-59 win, but then Meyers came back in the 2014 Wild Card and dropped 125 points on Bri for a win. Since then, Bri has taken 4 straight from Meyers, though it should be noted that Meyers' highest score in those 4 games was 76 points and he dropped a 57 turd in there.

What does all of this mean? First, the CBS team history page is completely fascinating and you could blow a lot of time in there. Second, Bri only beats Meyers when AH scores 80 or below. Bri doesn't beat Meyers so much as he happens to be standing there when Meyers falls down.

As far as this week is concerned, I think Bri has the right idea starting Watson over Cam. Hey, you do it every week and eventually you'll be right! Me myself, I would play Breida over Lamar Miller and I'd even think about Tate over TY.

I know Meyers has basically looked like a Death Machine so far this season, but I think Bri gets at least one more game out of whatever gypsy curse he paid for.

THE PICK: TKSMB 94 - AH 77


RUSSELLMANIA (1-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (0-2)
Brian is falling right into Amari Cooper's trap, starting him the week after he had a good game on the bench. This move does not ever work out ever. The Rams might be able to put a cap on Keenan, and Russ has to deal with an opponent that slows games down, leading to fewer plays, and an offensive coordinator who has exclusively been bad in his career. Clement might be decent, though.

5th overall pick LeSean McCoy is benched this week with a broken rib and also a growing criminal conspiracy and child abuse case against him. He...might not be good in fantasy football this year.

Going back into the stacks to browse history books again, Mike Barker had 11 wins in 2010, capturing the 1 seed. In 2011, he managed to scrounge up the 5th seed with a 7-7 record. He's missed the playoffs ever since, including finishing 11th and 12th. Six straight years on the outside looking in. If he falls to 0-3 this week, we can jump ahead and make it seven straight. Stairway to Seven, baby! Except in this case he'd be going down the stairs, I suppose. Back into the basement.

Speaking of Dallas slowing things down, Dak has been benched for Fitz this week. I am positive that, as usual, the bottom will drop out of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon at some point, but it certainly won't be this week with only token Steeler resistance. Thompson, Hopkins, and the Bears will all score plenty this week.

By the way, quick note on watching Enunwa last night. I knew he was good and Darnold liked him, but I didn't realize he was so electric with the ball as a big guy. He can really move. He might be the most dynamic Jets receiver since...Santana Moss? Laveranues Coles? Ever? Too bad they won't throw to him more than 10 yards away.

As for the score, even though Fitz isn't playing on Monday, there aren't going to be any dramatics here. He'll just be doing a victory lap. This one is going to be settled on Sunday.

THE PICK: TNB 87 - RM 51


ASSTANNER (0-2) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (1-1)

Tremendous, tremendous stuff.

You know, this game is hard for me to pick because I'll be happy with whoever loses, but I'll be unhappy with whoever wins. Scott definitely does not deserve to be 2-1, but I'd love to see Chris 0-3. Having them both 1-2 is probably fitting, but then Chris will think he's still alive and trade a first round pick for Devonta Freeman. No good.

I didn't realize Crowell harbored so much resentment towards Cleveland, but he seemed awfully inspired on those 2 touchdown runs. Not inspired to rush for more than 40 yards on the night, but still. Inspired. The Jets defense looked like they were going to notch 11 sacks in the first half and then Baker tuned them up and turned down their point total. Goff has 15 points in each of the last 2 weeks so we can probably guess this week's score now. Zeke and Thielen will be nice, as usual. Thielen's main concern is that Minnesota stops passing before your second beer on Sunday.

Fournette is questionable and even if he plays there's a chance he gets rested late in a blowout against the useless Titans. The only real question in this game is how many points will Scott be down by Sunday night, and what's the over/under on "We think Ben and AB can lead a Monday night comeback" versus "That's too much for anybody"? 30? Sure, easy. 40? A little tougher, but if they ham and eggs each other, 25+15=40. I can see it. 50? Welllllll...

There's a legit chance that Scott is losing 70-20 Monday morning. God, what a matchup. This isn't even dog shit. This is stepping in dog shit with fancy running shoes and the dog shit squeezes way down into a channel between two treads so you can't rub your shoe in the grass to get it off. You have the get the hose, take your shoe off, and aim carefully so as to not spray yourself with shit particles or get your sock wet. 

Still, when Ben scores 28 and AB gets 23 and Scott completes the huge comeback to win 71-70, that'll be pretty funny.

THE PICK: TDHAF 71 - AT 70

AFFL Week 2 Review

THIS WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 9-3

President Donald Trump receives word that Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham did not combine for 27 points and a comeback win on Sunday Night Football.

HEISENBERG 86 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 74.2

Looks like I wet my pants this week and am no longer filled with the piss and vinegar I had going after Week 1. In just 6 short days, I've gone from not a care in the world to several competing cares. Caring about Royce Freeman's role, caring about cutting Matt Breida 30 minutes too early for absolutely no reason whatsoever, caring about Robby Anderson getting one target a week, and caring extremely much about the Giants' atrocious offensive line. 

On Freeman specifically, I happily drafted him and just as happily handed him a 2-yr deal after he was named the starter at the close of preseason. Now, I follow camp and preseason backfield fairly closely, and I never even heard of Philip Lindsay. Him coming out of nowhere to lead the Broncos in carries twice now...well, it's a concern. I seem to bork a contract every year because I want to sign guys too quickly for maximum savings and that might be what happened here. Or everything will be fine by Week 4 because Lindsay gets hurt. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Gary texted me when the Giants game ended (I guess he wanted to be sure it was over in case Odell caught a 140-yard touchdown) and his excitement led to a lot of unfocused mockery and heckling over the preview. To be clear, starting Agholor was the right call, but I was pointing out that he was foolishly chasing Stills' Week 1 points, not that he should start Stills. And starting Lynch over Stills is why he won this game, so he did 2 things right this week. 

Congrats to the Saints defense for the 14-point turnaround this week. But nobody in this game was particularly noteworthy. Maybe Golladay continuing his breakout into Detroit's #1 WR. Gary was about average, I was below average. That's how it goes sometimes.


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 84.5 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 67.7

Trade me let’s find out https://t.co/4OeepI78zy

— Antonio Brown (@AB84) September 17, 2018

Oooooooo weeeeeee, we're gonna have a spicy Steelers season! I was in attendance on Sunday and these are my observations:

• The Chiefs had multiple guys open on every play and Kelce would be 10 yards open down the seam
• The Steelers didn't have anybody until Ben broke the pocket and the play became improv
• Tyreek Hill is unbelievably fast in person
• Ben was way off with about 10 throws
• One guy said "This would never happen under Cowher," which, it absolutely would and did

Anyway, AP did not have one more good week in him and Yeldon was useless filling in for Fournette, and nobody except Ben cracked double digits, except Ben had 35 points and Semi couldn't crack 70 so there you have your cheap win. Scott can build off of this by hoping AB actually shows up for practice this week.

Semi is technically still alive at 1-1, but Peyton Barber has done absolutely nothing while Fitzpatrick has piled up 900 yards, Julio doesn't have a touchdown yet, Allen Robinson turned 14 targets into only 83 yards and Trubisky sucks, the bench is terrible and Rodgers is a stiff breeze away from missing 12 weeks. Despite all that, CBS thinks he's going to score 96 points in Week 3. I think he might not get that much in Weeks 3 and 4 combined.

THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 117.2 - THE NIGHT BOYS 85.1

The Night Boys fall to 0-2 despite scoring enough points to beat 6 other team this week, and this might've been their last good chance to win one for a while. He needed a huge game from Hopkins and a defensive TD to even scratch an average score. You just...you don't want to be starting two Jets this early in the season.

I tried to suss out Bri on Gurley's availability on Friday and he wasn't really having it. I offered 2 first rounders, nothing. I even offered my patented "3 of my picks at any time up to and including when I'm on the clock" and nothing. I think that trade offer is hilarious and I've now offered it to three different owners, all of whom passed. I mean, you could wait until I win the lottery one year. You could wait to see if the 10th pick is any good and decide to wait until later. It's so much flexibility with such a great chance to screw me over at some point and nobody wants it!

Regardless, the good and obvious decision to keep Gurley paid off for Bri with 29.3 Before the season, I thought it was a little much that CBS projected Gurley to score 50 more points than other RB, but I don't know. He might actually pull this off 2 years in a row. Coleman looked great filling in for Freeman, who has become entirely unnecessary, Kelce couldn't have been more open on his TDs as mentioned before, and even though Bri technically started the wrong QB again, Watson's 20 points certainly didn't hurt him. He even had Matt Breida's 21.9 points on the bench, just to show off. 

The only even minor annoyance Bri has to deal with this week is replacing Zuerlein as a kicker, which will waste like $0.15 of cap space.

SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 79.7 - WTTK? 74.3

Seriously, who else would've picked this Timmy upset beside me? Nobody, that's who! 

It's probably hard to blame McCamey for benching Hogan against Jacksonville and playing Kittle against Detroit, but if he didn't do that he would've won. He also might've won if Mixon didn't get hurt and keep missing series, or if Luck managed more than 10 points in a win, or if Austin Ekeler didn't steal 9.8 points from Melvin Gordon and give them to Tim.

Tim's quarterback, Alex Smith, actually outscored Luck despite his Washington team losing 21-9 and throwing 0 TD passes to Luck's 2. If that just don't beat all!

Kareem Hunt bounced back with a TD and 14 points this week, though I would be still be pretty nervous about his overall value this year. Andy Reid is just infatuated with Mahomes right now and there's going to be a Chiefs game this year where Hunt gets 0 carries. Afterwards, Andy will sheepishly admit that he "forgot" to call any runs.

ANIMAL HOUSE 122.6 - RUSSELLMANIA 56

This humiliating 66.6 point thrashing is the 2nd-worst loss in Russellmania history. No, really, I looked it up. Barker lost a game in 2010 by 75.8 points. It's a shame he couldn't set a franchise low this week. I mean, you lose by more points than you score and you don't even set a new record? God, I'd be so embarrassed I might quit the league.

McCoy did nothing again and also broke a rib, Gronk was erased by Jalen Ramsey, Ajayi got hurt will likely miss Week 3 and Russ is definitely going to get hurt at some point behind that offensive line. And to top it off, Amari Cooper pulled his patented move of having a good game on the bench so he gets started next week and does nothing. 

Which brings us to Josh Gordon, who I don't think Barker should be trading now. Gordon's value this season is either going to be a 0 or a 10 with no in between. Most people seem him being closer to 0 and his 2/3 contract status could be a burden going into next year. Any RB Barker might get from a team with a deep enough backfield and an appetite for risk is only going to give up a back who's gonna be a 3 or a 4. Maybe a 5 if Brian Williams parts with Lamar Miller. Getting a 3 or a 4 in the backfield isn't going to help this season. But getting a 10 at WR? That might just help. He should wait this one out and see what happens.

Of course, nobody's moves might matter a bit unless some of Meyers' players get hurt. The highest-scoring team in Weeks 1 and 2, there's a 44-point gap between him and the 2nd-highest scoring team this season.

THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 93.9 - ASSTANNER 89.7

That nifty onsides kick didn't do anything for Giants, but it saved the game for Larry. Zeke's late TD cut Larry's lead to just 0.2 points with plenty of time left. One more Zeke carry would've sealed the come from behind win and kept Chris out of the basement. 

I mentioned that there was no way Crowell would score even 8 points this week after putting up 22 points in Week 1, and he only scored 3.9. And yeah, technically Chris would've won if he had started Godwin over Crowell, but it's hard to criticize him for chasing one guy's Week 1 points and not the other just because Godwin is better, in a better offense, and Chris traded a draft pick for him right before cutdown day.

Pat Mahomes threw more touchdowns than incompletions against the Steelers, and his offensive onslaught looked so good that the entire city of Pittsburgh is ready to burn down Heinz Field with the players inside. Not even the beer vendors are safe from fans calling for them to be fired or traded. We are in line for an extremely nasty and insane season if the defense doesn't turn things around very quickly.

Also, man, Mahomes is really, really good. So good that Larry can focus on his win this week and ignore Dalvin Cook's hamstring issue, David Johnson's entire bad offense issue, or the Eagles defense getting tuned up by the Bucs. Speaking of Johnson, Cards coach Steve Wilks says they will start using Johnson in the slot to get him the ball in space more often. I don't know about you, but I would be extremely concerned if I traded multiple first rounders and then franchised a running back who so far has been A) Injured for an entire season and B) Moved to WR, but that's just me.

AFFL Week 2 Preview

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 5-1

After a disastrous 2017 season in which I was trying to sell off my team during the draft, after realizing in Week 10 that if I just kept my team together I would've been the #1 seed, after realizing that team still would've lost in the playoffs, after patiently building up a quiverful of picks, after totally busting out in the lottery...I'm feeling pretty good about how Week 1 went. I'm feeling like a...




By the way, last week's song does not actually mock common people. Instead, it's about a rich chick who wants to be a blue collar tourist because she assumes common people are so fascinating, but the common guy has no idea what she's actually looking for so he just takes her to the grocery store. The song is about mocking snobs. I tried to set you all up for an easy shot at me with just the tiniest bit of effort and...nothing.

Boring.


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-0) v. HEISENBERG (0-1)
Gary has a source.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, he had Kenny Stills in his starting lineup, chasing last week's points in classic Gary fashion. Yesterday, Nelson Agholor mysteriously worked his way into the lineup. When I asked Gary about this, he said he expected Agholor to "get more targets".

Now...those are not Gary words. Between that and his claim that he ranked 95 people pre-draft, he has a source. He finally figured out CBS previews and rankings are trash and looked elsewhere. Anyway, if you can figure out what his source is, you can probably figure out who he's overrating or underrating and adjust your trade offers accordingly.

While we're on his lineup, he should put Stills back in over Freeman, who might not play at all this week, and if he does it'll be on a bad knee against a decent run defense. (***BREAKING NEWS*** Gary just put Lynch in for Freeman, which...okay. If you say so, Chief.) Rivers should be decent, but think about this:

• West Coast team traveling east for a 1pm start
• Road team that's a -7.5 favorite
• Home team that was blown out last week and everybody assumes is about to go 0-16
• Chargers are preseason favorite every year and then somehow go 1-3 with a ton of mistakes and injuries every year

I'm not saying this will go wrong, but don't be surprised by a 4-INT game from Rivers. The Rams should hold Fitz down, Hyde might lose a lot of snaps to Duke Johnson this week as the Browns try to catch up, and Agholor might get a lot of targets, but last week he turned like 15 targets into 40 yards.

On the bright side, Kamara cannot be stopped.

On my bright side, every pass to Kamara is points for my QB, Drew Brees. Hey, that rhymes!

I'm not too worried about Philip Lindsay long term, and I'm definitely not worried about this week when Royce will put up 15 points with a TD. Golladay is already Detroit's #1 WR and will run free against the Niners this week. Butker will be involved in a shootout and might post 12 points, and the Bears will handle the Seahawks with ease, especially with Baldwin out.

And I haven't even mentioned the superstars yet. Except for Fitz, all of Gary's players are going in the 1pm slot. For me, only Brees and Butker are. So when the early games wrap, there's a decent chance Gary will have a 40-point lead on me. Unfortunately for him, he'll be couch side for the Sunday night game, watching live game as his lead evaporates for the second week in a row thanks to Barkley and Beckham. Only difference is that this week it'll happen in the first quarter. That's gotta hoit!

Oh, one last Gary hilarity, or as I call it, a Galarity. Yesterday, he accused me of falsely benching Collins for Morris to inflate Morris' trade value, but I would put Collins in before TNF started. I guess the idea is that people would be looking at my roster Thursday afternoon to get a general idea of how I value players?

During the game, when it was 28-7 and I pointed out the game script was going away from Collins, he then harrumphed that I just got lucky. That I benched Collins for all the wrong reasons. It was like an old guy at a concert getting mad because you like the wrong songs. Anyway, Alf Morris is absolutely plunging into the end zone this week and posting 13 points.

Gary sure is something, man.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 101 - HB 75


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (0-1) v. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-0)
I know he's Aaron Rodgers and all, but I don't see how you can start him this week. I'm speaking to BOTH Mikes here, Sembrat and McCarthy. If Rodgers is just standing back there against that Vikings front 7, MM runs the chance of losing him for the entire season with one hard shot. MS at least runs the risk of losing him in the second quarter and having his QB only score 5 points.

Peyton Barber might be happy to post 5 points against that Philly defense, and we're getting near the points where we all give up on Corey Davis. Especially when Vrabel says that Glaine Babbert might take some snaps for the Titans this week. Still, Robinson has some nice potential Monday night and Tyreek against the Steelers secondary is almost unfair. Julio isn't going to score 18 points every week so he might as well save himself this week. Why waste a good week when Little Baby Jesus is just going to get smoked anyway?

Actually...hang on a second. Let's actually think about this one here. Ben and AB should light up the Chiefs since they're at home, something that has become beyond ridiculous at this point. How do you get WORSE on the road the LONGER your career goes on? AP might have one more good week in him because he's playing the Colts, but on the other side of the ball Scott is playing Jordan Wilkins, which...come on. Fournette is going to be a game time decision, and yeah, Scott has the great TJ Yeldon as a backup plan, but seems like we can't expect too much out of either one.

So both teams here have two good options, dinged-up quarterbacks, and then a bunch of trash. And the more I think about it, Ben is more likely to hold the ball too long and get hurt again than Rodgers. Though the Vikings will figure out a screen and slants only passing game pretty quickly.

I think I'm going to have to give a sight edge to Semi here, with Allen Robinson's 80 receiving yards becoming the difference Monday night. Though, let's be honest here, I mainly want to see Scott fall to 0-2.

THE PICK: LBJ 82 - TDHAF 78


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (0-1) v THE NIGHT BOYS (0-1)
Somebody is guaranteed to fall to 0-2 here and while the easy choice is Barker, the hilarious panic that will ensue if it's Bri because he started the wrong quarterback again is pretty choice to think about. It's choice, bro! Bri has kept DeShaun in there for now, but I might think about Cam against a Falcons defense that just lost two key pass rushers. Maybe he's doing this because Barker has Hopkins and Bri wants to dilute his points?

There are no such concerns with the backfield, as Coleman and Miller are clear-cut starters this week and we don't really have to spend too much time on the merits of Todd Gurley. Plugging Kelce into a receiver spot against the Steelers makes enough sense, even though he only had 6 yards last week and it's possible that Andy Reid will forget about him entirely with Nagy not around to remind him anymore. But Golden Tate isn't exactly a sure thing. Let's not forget the Chargers defense going up against a small school rookie in his first NFL start.

Barker has moved away from the 2 TE power set that didn't work whatsoever last week in favor of a 1-4 run and shoot set, but you could list off a significant problem for literally every single person on this roster. Dak seems to be permanently capped at 200 yards passing and Dallas sucks. Thompson is electric, but limited by third down and passing sets. Powell maybe is the starter, maybe isn't. Enunwa...actually, he's solid. You know he's solid because I had him 2 years ago and had my eyes on him this year before I got Anderson. Hopkins...okay, there are two that are good. Demaryius would be better if he was Emanuel.

The point is, The Night Boys roster, as currently constructed, is a complete trash pile. I don't see much chance of going .500 this season, let alone competing for the playoffs. And looking around the league for expiring contracts, a 2019 top-2 pick might get Fournette, AB if Scott franchises Fournette, or Michael Thomas. Blowing the lottery and getting the 3rd or 4th pick will get...Bryce Love? Kerryon Johnson?

Next year's draft is going to be BAD. Barker needs to pull the Chris Albert zag when most people would zig and move his first 5-6 picks in 2019 for guys that can help him now. No team that is bad this year is going to get good through the draft next year.

For teams that Barker might approach offering picks, uh...ignore the paragraph above, I guess.


THE PICK: TKSMB 84 - TNB 71


WTTK? (1-0) v. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (0-1)
News has just broken that Joe Mixon is likely going to need surgery to clean up the knee he was gimping around on last night. No word yet on how much time he is likely miss.

If you're scoring at home, I've now made trade inquires on Aaron Rodgers, Joe Mixon, and Leonard Fournette, and they've all gotten hurt this season. I've also asked about AB, Melvin Gordon, Gurley, and Cam, so their time is coming! Y'all better move those guys while you still can!

And yes, if you're paying enough attention, I asked McCamey about both Mixon and Gordon. A genuine, bona fide blockbuster started taking shape yesterday before it fizzled out.

Anyway, is there anything more Tim in this world than having one roster spot active on Thursday night and starting off with a -3? Just gotta sit there for three days, staring at it, knowing you somehow managed to get WORSE once the ball was in the air. Pathetic.

On the bright side, credit to Tim for getting out ahead of next week's rush and grabbing Aaron Jones now. It's a move I was considering, so you can imagine how surprised I was to see Tim actually pull it off.

Tim is choosing Alex Smith against the Colts over Jimmy against the Lions, but he probably can't go wrong either way. Tim can successful navigate a QB platoon while Brian Williams struggles at it. Howard should be nice against Seattle and Hunt should be good if Andy actually remembers to give him the ball. Ekeler is a bit of a stretch since he's game- and TD-dependent and the Chargers could sleepwalk through 3 quarters, as mentioned before. And every carry or catch that stays with Melvin Gordon is a double loss for Tim. Then again, not like he has anybody better on the bench to try.

WTTK? franchise player Derrick Henry has been BENCHED. Kerryon Johnson is getting the start for WTTK? even though he doesn't get the start for the Lions or even a lot of carries. Gordon should be able to fight through any potential Charger problems, but Davante Adams is going up against Xavier Rhodes with a bad shoulder and an immobile QB. That has a 4-point game written all over it. And let's not assume McCamey's Packer defense will outscore Baltimore's -3 by all that much. I think this Mixon surgery news was the just start of McCamey's bad week and...

...

...folks, I got that feeling. You know how I get when I get that feeling. I get that twitch in my hips!

WE'RE CALLING IN AN UPSET!!!!!

THE PICK: SS 64 - WTTK? 57


RUSSELLMANIA (1-0) v. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-0)
Man, you think it's a big deal that franchise player Derrick Henry got benched? How about 5th overall pick LeSean McCoy getting benched?

Meanwhile, 7th overall pick AJ Green piled up 24.9 on Barker's head last night. Piled 'em up like a buncha Keystone Light cans on a dude who passed out.

Also benched is 11th overall pick Amari Cooper. Speaking of Cooper, we've only seen one game and so far Jon Gruden has described Cooper as the focal point of the offense (summer), a guy that is hard to get into the game (this week), and blamed Derek Carr for not getting Coop the ball (the following day).

Goddamn, that draft was butt.

Actually, if all Brian can do with 3 first round picks is find one starter, he should be racing his brother for player-for-pick trades, Cannonball Run-style. Brian has a better core to build around; if he gives away enough 2019 picks, he could put together a decent 2018 squad. Just gonna waste those draft picks anyway.

As for this week, this is a decent starting lineup with those trash picks thrown on the side of the road, but I'd try to figure out a way to get Josh Gordon in there, especially if we might be heading for another Saints shootout here. I'd bench either Lewis or Ajayi, though Gronk is no sure thing against Jalen Ramsey.

I realize I've spent this entire matchup preview talking only about Brian's team. It's because Animal House is so good that they're boring. He basically has all perfect matchups this week. If Jacksonville holds Brady to like 15 points or so, that will be Meyers' worst skill player of the week.

THE PICK: AH 119 - RM 80


ASSTANER (0-1) v. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (1-0)
I can tell you with confidence that Larry had Cam-sized dreams for Marcus Mariota. So did I, really. They just never came to pass. One look at Pat Mahomes last week and it was over for poor Marcus.

Looking at David Johnson against the Rams and Drake against the Jets and Evans against the Eagles...and then at Zeke against the Giants, Thielen against the Packers, and Funchess against Atlanta with Greg Olsen out...I kinda...I'm picking up the upset gun one more time. I'm aiming it...I'm stroking the trigger...

...but then at the last moment Dede Westbrook pops up like a terrified mom shielding a baby in one of those cop training courses and I have to put the gun down. And there's no way Crowell is going to score more than 8 after scoring 22 last week. We've been seeing this same pattern from him for 2 years now.

Larry is going to have to sweat this one out Sunday night, but he'll ultimately hold on for a very disappointing and unimpressive victory.

THE PICK: TWR 71 - AT 66

AFFL Week 1 Review

THIS WEEK: 5-1

It's Brian Williams' fault that the picks weren't perfect this week, not mine.


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 102.1 - SIGMUND & THE SEAMONSTER 66.4

President Donald Trump receives word that The Dude broke 100 points to open up the season while arriving at the Flight 93 Memorial in Shanksville, PA (Sep. 11, 2018)

I will confess that there was a point Sunday afternoon when Tim and I were tied 45-45 and I was lamenting to Larry that if I lost the season opener to Tim, that would be a pretty dire outcome indeed. Then SAAAAAAQUOOOOOOONNNNN happened, Brees kept piling up yards and TDs and it was pretty much over from there. 

Now, admittedly, I am watching the backfield splits for Freeman, Collins, Carson, and Alf with a wary eye, but if Anderson, Golladay, and Brown keep doing their thing, it might not even matter.

So after 1 week, Tim is lowest-scoring Dead Drop team by 20+ points. That's bad. But he outscored The Night Boys by 20+ points. That's good. He can celebrate with a froyo with free toppings. That's good. The toppings contain monosodium glutamate. 

...

That's bad.

Jordan Howard will have a good season and Jimmy GQ will bounce back against softer defenses, but Tim has no bench and he should have some extreme concerns about Kareem Hunt. As a reminder, Hunt started off amazingly last year, then scored under 10 points for like 8 games in a row because Andy Reid stopped calling running plays. Hunt didn't bounce back last year until the Chiefs gave play calling duties to Matt Nagy, who's now in Chicago. Reid's worst instincts are now unchecked, and him calling a WR end around tap pass inside the 5-yard line TWICE on Sunday is not a good sign for Hunt's touches. Tim should put him on the block immediately before everybody wises up. He won't, though, because he WANTS to believe.

WTTK? 103 - HEISBERG 87.8

The preview had this one as 103-98, so Gary owes me an apology for completing screwing up half of my pick. -7.5 from your defense?!? The hell is that? 

One thing I've noticed in the past is that Gary gets extremely agitated if I make a lineup or roster suggestion, especially if it's one he was already considering, because he thinks I'll take credit for it. I absolutely WILL take credit for it, he's right about that. But knowing this, I tried to subtly hint that he should bench Doug Baldwin instead of playing him. He did do that and Baldwin posted a 0 after hurting his knee mid-game. Not the knee that he said hurt coming into the season, mind you, the other knee. So Baldwin now has a MCL tear in one knee and a mystery ailment in the other. Sounds like he's set up for a really big season.

Anyway, too bad Gary is so stubborn because he could've won this week with Stills in the lineup over Baldwin.

I said McCamey was good after the draft and he was good in Week 1. Not much more to it than that. He's going to look really good if Hogan lives up to expectations.

LITTLE BABY JESUS 111.5 - ASSTANNER 73.5

Although the Packers would be well and irreparably fucked if Rodgers went down, Semi could find another QB on the FA pile, so it's not quite as drastic for him. Still, I'm sure the Packers locker room cart didn't exactly inspire positive feelings for him on Sunday night. Rodgers is reporting a slight tear or sprain and says he can only play from the pistol or shotgun. That seems like a pretty bad idea with the Vikings coming up next week, but at least if they tear Rodgers' leg off, Semi will get the fumble recovery points for his DST.

Tyreek is going to be A LOT of fun for Semi this year, and since I am honest and noble about my mistakes, a reminder that last year I was on the fence between Martavis and Tyreek and drafted...poorly.

Chris did as well as he possibly could with this roster, and he still needed two Isaiah Crowell touchdowns just to lose by 40.

RUSSELLMANIA 94.2 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 79.4

I had this score nailed but for 2 points, except I had the teams reversed. Partial credit.

The hilarious adventures of Bri starting the wrong quarterback each week have already begun. Folks, do not offer Bri more than a 6th round pick for Cam. He has to trade Cam to open up his franchise spot for Gurley or DeShaun at some point, and he definitely wants the relief of not sweating who should start each week. You're helping him by making that trade and you should price your offers accordingly.

By the way, DeShaun plays TEN next week and Cam faces ATL and I don't know who should start but I do know that Bri will get it wrong.

Bri sensibly took my advice to start Tate over Hilton, he got 20 points out of Gurley, he got 15 points from his kicker, and he still lost by 15. And oh by the way, there is absolutely no help on Bri's bench, either.

If you're wondering how Bri is taking all of this, I floated him a Gurley/Odell package to fix his receiver depth and he yelled at me. So he is very, very tense about being 0-1 and possibly his entire season being over.

As for the other Brian, first round picks Amari Cooper and Shady McCoy combined for 4 points. That said, Dion Lewis and Manny Sanders combined for 36.5 points on the bench, so it's entirely possible we need to flip the two Brians in the preseason power rankings.

ANIMAL HOUSE 118 - THE NIGHT BOYS 45.4

Speaking of power rankings...Jesus. I'd advise Barker to chop up this team and sell it off for picks, but we just had a draft and this is what he came up with. They're already talking about firing Scott Linehan in Dallas, which can't be good for Dak and Gallup, the two starting TEs combined for 2.3 points, Bilal Powell was the Jets' starter for all of 1 quarter, and the entire Lions defense hates Matt Patricia already. The only silver lining, if you're desperate, is that the 6 bench players outscored the 8 starters 45.8 - 45.4

We said before the season that Meyers was the best team and he has the most points after Week 1. Not much more, is there?


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 99 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 80.5
In the preseason, I inquired about both Rodgers, Fournette, and Freeman. All three went down with injuries this week. So good luck with Gurley, BRI! 

Marcus Mariota as a franchise players is pretty much done with after that Pat Mahomes performance. 

Once again, on the honest and noble front, Larry took my advice to bench Landry for Marvin Jones. It cost him 5 points, but it didn't matter because Scott started Jordan Wilkins and Ben on the road. The only thing that kept this game even respectable was AP having a surprisingly good debut, which is the exact same thing he did in Arizona last year before turning back into a pumpkin in Week 2.

AFFL Week 1 Preview

LAST SEASON: 50-22

When I look at that incredible picks record above, I realize it's yet another thing about me that you all don't appreciate enough. That's a long list, but great picks is the one I'm thinking about right now.

Anyway, I thought it might be fun if I created a a simple Google doc and we could all pick each game each week and find out who's smart around here, but I only filled in about four cells before I realized that, at best, Gary would try it all season long, Brian Barker would quit after 3 weeks when he started off 8-10, Scott would try to change his picks Tuesday morning to look like he went 6-0, forcing me to toggle his edit privileges all season long, and the rest of you crumb bums would just ignore it.

Again, this was the BEST CASE SCENARIO I envisioned. I do all I can to keep this league spicy, but you're all just so boring. So lame. You're all just...






SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER vs THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY

Ah, Week 1. The last time all season Tim has a .500 record. Really, there's a good chance that Tim starts off 0-3 in what's become a rough and tumble Dead Drop division. I'd say the sell off will be on by October for Tim, but he won't move Hunt and outside of Diggs, who else would people even want? Did you realize that Jordan Howard's contract price makes him the 3rd-most expensive player in the league? His contract price is $0.62 more than Todd Gurley's free agent price! I think he'll bounce back this year, but $2.59...that's a lotta dimp.

Howard does have a nice matchup this week against an atrocious Packers defense, and Hunt and Diggs should score a bunch as well, but that's really about it. I like Jimmy GQ as much as anybody else this year, but going into Minnesota is not a great way to start off. Maybe if Baltimore can get a pick 6 against The Peter Man.

It's going to be very, very exciting to have Barkley and Beckham this season and next, especially because the Giants will play like 9 Sunday night games during that time, but facing Jacksonville in Week 1 will be a tough go. The Sacksonville Smashuars! THE ONLY DEFENSE GOOD ENOUGH TO BE FRANCHISED IN THE AFFL!

Not that it matters much, since Brees will light up Tampa at home, Alex Collins will get into the end zone at least once against Buffalo, and Royce Freeman will plow through what's left of the once good Seattle defense. My only real concern, as usual, will be trying to manage my incredible depth. Do I start Anderson or Golladay in the last spot because they play Monday night and it'll be fun to watch them run up the score? Do I put in John Brown and hope he gets deep once? Crowder, who will chip away with 10 catches for 100 yards? So many choices!

THE PICK: TDHGNM 99 - SS 80


HEISENBERG vs WTTK?
I remember when Coleman and Freeman were in camp after being drafted and the talk was that Coleman was the more dynamic back and likely to be the next starter with Freeman working in from time to time. Then Coleman got hurt and missed his whole rookie year, giving Freeman the starting job the following year. Freeman put up two great seasons, but last year he dipped down with Coleman working in more and more. Last night, it seemed like the Falcons realized it's Coleman's time. Look at him. He's the captain now.

What I'm saying is, Gary needs to trade Freeman ASAFP to open up the franchise spot for Kamara. Problem is, only 3 or 4 teams would want to take Freeman in the FP spot. Sure, Gary can extend Kamara to 2/3 and put off the problem for one more year, but Freeman's value drops with every Coleman carry from here on out.

There's a Freeman/Rivers/____ for Rodgers/_____ deal out there somewhere that makes sense, but I doubt Gary and Semi can stumble across it with the number of 1st round picks they'll both demand.

Speaking of Rivers and Kamara, they should both go off this week against terrible defenses. Kamara is in the even better position of being the clock-killing back with Ingram out, so 20+ points are entirely possible for him. Hyde, Tucker, and the Saints defense have nice matchups as well. On the downside, Doug Baldwin has claimed his knee won't be better than 80% all season and he's going into Denver against Chris Harris.

McCamey most has good matchups, though I'd like to see how Luck stands up against Cincy's front four, and how many carries Henry actually gets for the Titans. Also, having the Packers DST on purpose in Week 1 seems like an odd choice. But Hogan, Davante, Mixon, and Gordon should all get into double digits. Gordon could push 20 points himself.

Gary's favorite thing about the head-to-head matchups, as he's mentioned several times before, is games coming down to the wire on Sunday or Monday night when everybody's watching. So imagine how much fun he's going to have watching the Packers DST score go up and down, putting him in the lead, taking the lead away, until a 2nd half Davante Adams TD seals the deal.

THE PICK: WTTK? 103 - HB 98


LITTLE BABY JESUS v ASSTANNER
Credit to Chris for his absolute vision, sprinting to pick up Dez Bryant before anybody else in the AFFL did. Heck, before anybody else in the NFL did. Any time you have a chance to get a WR who's in the top 30 in AFFL salary without being top 30 in NFL stats, you've GOT to do it. And when he's not even on a roster? Just that much sweeter.

But the crazy part is, I'm not yet entirely ready to rule out Chris in this matchup. Even with Julio's 18 points already on the board. Goff should get some against the Raiders (Side note: I am SO EXCITED for the Jon Gruden era. Every single quote and action I've seen so far teases an incredible, incredible disaster coming.), Zeke should get plenty against Carolina, and Thielen should be good against the Niners, although he needs to get in the end zone this year. On the other hand, Chris is also playing Isaiah Crowell, who isn't technically the Jets' starter, in a game they should be trailing early and often. He's also hoping Dede Westbrook lives up to the sleeper hype right away, and he has Bill Maher at kicker when I didn't know he played sports. It's a little bit top heavy.

While Semi had to be excited about Julio being able to catch as many quick hooks and crosses as he wants, eventually you'd like to see a TD as well, which is not something that Matt Ryan or Steve Sarkisian seem to be able to conjure up. I'm not a professional football man, but it seemed odd to me last night that the Falcons would sprint down the field with pass after pass to Julio, and then take him out as soon as they crossed the 20. I might have done things differently myself.

I'd also be concerned by Matt Ryan floating bubbles out there. The time to trade Julio is now, while his value is at its peak, is what I'm saying. Somebody will be able to take that 3-year contract off your hands. Make it their problem, Semi, not yours.

The Bears defense is great, but Rodgers still tears them up, especially at home. I have high hopes for Allen Robinson this year, but I'd like to see him actually do something before I put him in the starting lineup. Semi doesn't have the luxurious receiver depth that I do, though, so he really has no choice. Peyton Barber is nice, but how many times is Tampa going to run the ball in the second half this week? Once? A lot of Jacquizz Rodgers on the field when they're down 27-10. What Semi really needs is Tyreek to get deep once on a really good Chargers defense.

This one is also going to come down to Monday, with Chris running Crowell and Goff out there. It's just too bad that nobody will still be awake to see Chris' non-comeback.

THE PICK: LBJ 74 - AT 66


RUSSELLMANIA v THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL
I'm not sure if sitting Jay Ajayi for the first part of the game and hoping he scores 2 late TDs is a viable long-term strategy, but take what you can get I suppose. And hey, anything Ajayi provided this week was a fun bonus since B. Williams traded Ajayi to B. Barker on draft night. He handed over the very club with which Barker just beat him about the face, neck, chest, breast, and head. And he was hurt VERY badly.

Although, even with the 10-point head start, it might not matter. Russell won't be doing much of anything this week, partially because he's going into Denver with no weapons, partially because, according to this article, his whole team hates him. Amari won't do anything against the Rams, and Keenan and Gronk won't be able to carry the whole thing themselves.

Oh, did I forget somebody? Listen, Shady is going to go down as the worst pick of the 2018 draft. Historically, that pick's going to be up there with Andre Ellington 3rd instead of AB (LBJ, 2014), Bishop Sankey 6th and Toby Gerheart 9th over anybody else on Earth (Gary, 2014), or Terrelle Pryor 5th (RM, 2017). I wouldn't even play Shady this week against Baltimore. I'd play literally any other bench player except Ronald Jones over him.

While I'm making canny roster decisions, B. Williams should bench TY Hilton outside, on the road, matched up against William Jackson, in favor of Golden Tate against a non-existent Jets secondary. He won't, though, mostly because I suggested it and he's too prideful. After I suggested the brilliant insightful Rodgers + WR for Cam + RB trade in the season preview, Bri emailed me to say "That is a really, really, really smart idea, but I won't do it because it was your idea," in so many words. I mean, that was basically the subtext, reading between the lines and all.

Anyway, Watson, Miller, and Gurley will do more than enough to get the win here.

THE PICK: TKSMB 94 - RM 81


THE NIGHT BOYS v ANIMAL HOUSE
It just feels like if you're starting two TEs in Week 1, you're getting off on the wrong foot. Really not too sure what else to say here except Deandre Hopkins is going to feel awfully lonely being the only double-digit scorer week after week.

Meyers gets to cash in his Le'Veon Bell insurance policy in Week 1, and Conner should do just fine against the Cleve Brownies. But let's take a look at how Mrs. Meyers is handling the news:

Tonight at 5 and 6, we give you a breakdown of the Le'Veon Bell holdout: Why this is happening, the latest we could see Bell return and sports will have the reaction from inside the locker room.

Here's a taste of how one Pittsburgher, Debbie Cromlish, feels. pic.twitter.com/KwG6qlebFA

— David Kaplan (@DKaplanWTAE) September 5, 2018

Expect AJ to get deep on the Colts once or twice, McCaffrey should have at least 100 combined yards, and it's possible Michael Thomas actually outscores AJ like 19-17 or something. This one is going to be ugly.

THE PICK: AH 101 - TNB 54


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS
This is projected to be the closest matchup of the week, and it's the only that will be wrapped up by dinner time on Sunday. Now...I wrote the other previews earlier today and then took a super fun soccer practice and dinner break, and between now and then, weather reports of 100% chance of rain and 20mph winds have cropped up and I'm not sure if I want to overreact a lot or a little.

If it's a lot, then Ben and AB are really going to have some trouble, and Landry will probably be benched in favor of Marvin Jones. And if that's where we're going, then Scott might not break 50.

Regardless of weather, Scott shouldn't expect much from AP or Wilkins, but Fournette should continue being nice.

Larry is throwing Mahomes and Cook right into the mix right off the bat, and actually...Drake too. This whole matchup outside of AB and Johnson is a bunch of prove it guys. I guess Evans will be okay with Fitzpatrick since the Bucs will be passing all game? Geez, this whole thing stinks.

THE PICK: TWR 73 - TDHAF 62