Tuesday, September 25, 2018

AFFL Week 3 Review

WEEK 3 PICKS: 5-1


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 116.4 - WTTK? 83.9
Admittedly, I texted Larry Sunday morning cautioning that I had a bad feeling that I was heading for a 70-point week and a loss. It seems that sometimes even I can't believe how good and deep my team is. I got rushing TDs from Barkley, the newly-added Gio, Alf, Royce, Carson, Collins, and TWO rushing TDs from Drew Brees of all people. Sure, 4 of those TDs were on the bench, but I ain't sweatin' it. It's like complaining about having a bunch of money in my savings account. It's nice to know it's there when I want to finally use it.

I even got a TD from Marquise Goodwin in his first game back. That's nice. Thank you, Marquise. Kenny Golladay also continued his rise to the #1 Lions receiver. Heck, I've cracked 100 points in 2 out of 3 games this season and Odell doesn't have a TD yet. There is still slack in the line, folks!

And I needed this points explosion to get to 2-1 through the first round of divisional since the Dead Drop division is the most potent by far. Our teams have combined for 1,089 points compared to the the Central (Since renamed the Wee Baby Krogmann division. Lame.) with 1,023 and the Western with 1,002. This is big boy pretend football in this division!

Credit to McCamey for starting Tannehill over Luck, a move that I never would've considered, but one that worked out since Tannehill doubled up Luck. The bad news is now Tannehill is officially McCamey's QB. The other good thing for McCamey is that he lost by so much that him leaving Calvin Ridley's 33.5 points on the bench was not the only reason he lost. 

Chris Hogan, who has scored 1, 16, and 3 points so far this season and is currently the 48th-best WR is now available for trade if you're interested. And all it will cost you is a pick and a player! A good pick, assumedly, since McCamey took Hogan in the 2nd round this season.


HEISENBERG 124 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 91.8
I know people get annoyed with me for being noisily good, but I promise that Gary is absolutely insufferable right now. He is DYING for somebody to ask him about his team just so how knew Stills would bounce back this week due to Oakland's secondary coverage in early games or something but even if he didn't he was going to play Mike Williams, who also went off. Don't give him the satisfaction.

Speaking of, I think I have a clue on Gary's football intel source. He actually drafted Alvin Kamara in the 11th round last year, despite him being a 3rd-string RB with very little preseason buzz at the time. But a handful of fantasy experts/scouts were on Kamara all summer, and so one of these few are most likely Gary's source. I'm getting close to figuring this out and gaining leverage.

So...is it too early in the season to point out that Tim scored 91 points but dropped to 1-2 in the toughest division while Bri Williams scored 83 to go 2-1 in the worst division? Are we ready to have this discussion again?


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 85.3 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 66.4
I first thought it was absurd that CBS prognosticated this game to be 96-94, then I foretold that they would score even MORE than that, and then these jerkos went out and just bored everybody to sleep. Philip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch after posting 2 points, Julio has 3 TDs in his last 19 games even though Ridley had 3 just this week, Tyreek only had 50 yards despite his team posting 35 points in the FIRST HALF, and the vaunted Vikings D somehow gave up 27 points in Josh Allen's first ever start. Take away Will Fuller's big game and LBJ doesn't even crack 60. These are the kind of games you are bound to have with the 1-4 run and shoot, I can tell you from experience. There are far too many receivers who post nice numbers on the season but go 2-23-4-9-18 from week to week. It's exhausting.

Larry needed all of 5 minutes for Mike Evans to seal the win on Monday night, and I don't know how much luckier you can get than moving to 3-0 despite 1 point from Kenyan Drake. The same Kenyan Drake who was the Start of the Week in CBS' Start 'Em / Sit 'Em article this week. Pretty good pick, boys. Pretty good resource you're giving us there.

Like many of you, I assume, I eyeballed picking up Latavius Murray for a tasty, tasty start against the terrible, terrible Bills but was scared off by his $1.44 price tag. I have no idea why Latavius Murray is so damn expensive, but I'm glad he is because it kept me away from that 4 carry, 3.1 points debacle. And how Larry squeezed $1.44 under the cap when he was already right up against is beyond me. I think we should all expect a blank K spot in the lineup around, say, Week 9? 

David Johnson scored a TD to salvage a day in which he only had 60 total yards and watched from the sidelines as Chase Edmonds took late snaps. Didn't matter this week, but I'd expect it to matter soon. And hard.


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 82.3 - ANIMAL HOUSE 80.8
Bri was just 2 Boswell doinks away from losing this game, so I'm sure he's pretty relieved that his 3rd straight incorrect decision to start DeShaun over Cam wasn't the deciding factor. Smartly, he did listen to me on playing Breida over Miller and that 1.6 difference between the two was the difference between Bri sneaking out a win instead of losing by 0.1 point. You're welcome, Bri. I'm happy to be of service and I hope this helps build a trust between us.

Now, if you'll allow me a rare and momentary diversion to praise myself for a second, I'd like to point out that Meyers scored 118 and 122 in his first two weeks, and CBS predicted he'd score 101 this week. But I took a cold, hard look at his lineup and said, "Hey, you know what? I'll tell you what I think. I think Animal House is only going to score 77 this week." They had 77 on the button late in the 4th quarter until two late Conner runs pushed them up to 80. Still, correctly predicting the highest-scoring team in the league would falter this week? That's pretty good stuff.

Also, please note in the preview where it reads that Bri only beats Meyers when Meyers scores 80 points or fewer.

Now, I will let you in on a little secret. The point predictions are less exact figures and more like grading curves. If I say a team is going to post 113-125 or so, that's an A++++. 70-77 is a C, 60 or below is an F, or as some people refer to it, a Barker. You get the picture. Anyway, pretty great stuff by me this week.

On another note, I'm not as bent out of shape by the Bell holdout as most Yinzers. But I will say if they end up trading Bell like was discussed this week and Meyers ends up with TWO starting backs instead of Bell simply replacing Conner...I mean, that's going to be really unfair for the rest of us. 


THE NIGHT BOYS 73.9 - RUSSELLMANIA 47.5
While I'm taking a victory lap on the preview, I also said Fitzpatrick would be taking his own victory lap on Monday night because this one would be wrapped up on Sunday. Lo and behold, the Rams put a cap on Keenan as (obviously) predicted and BB fell into the Amari Cooper trap despite all warnings. I also said that his team would post 51 points this week, which ended up being a little generous but still a lot more accurate than the 85 CBS hung on him. 

I'm not going to go so far as to say Russellmania is awful this season. There are a lot of talented players on this team and some solid ones too. The problem is, as you can see by the weekly scores of 94-56-47, and bench scores of 53-35-21, that it's impossible to know who will do what when and get the starting lineup right. Brian might smoke you in a given week or you might have him beat by 3pm. He might rally to go 10-4 this season, he might end up 4-10. Anything is possible.

The only guarantee, really, is a lot of complaining on his part. 

Oh hey, here's a fun stat. Through 3 weeks, Shady McCoy, Gronk, and Amari Cooper have combined for 48 points. Saquon Barkley has 47.3.

As for The Night Boys, it's nice to get your first win of the season with only 74 points. 

Dak Prescott has now thrown for under 200 yards in 5 straight games. The last Cowboys QB to pull of this anti-feat? QUINCY CARTER. 

Now imagine if Quincy Carter was somebody's franchise player.

By the way, we're only 3 weeks into the season and the Barker family has combined for 2 sub-50 point weeks. 


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91.1 - ASSTANNER 80.9
Scott would like us to all be impressed that he's scored 85 and 92 points the last two weeks despite the fact that those are the 7th- and 4th-highest scores in those weeks, respectively, despite the fact that he's the 7th-highest scoring team overall, despite the fact that rule changes and passing emphasis have made this the highest-scoring NFL season ever, and despite the fact that if you switched his schedule with Tim's or McCamey's and put him in an actually good division, he'd just be 1-2.

Wow! Slightly below average scoring with an injured running back missing games and schedule luck?! Wow! What do you say, Kid At Some Party?


But in the interest of fairness, here are some things I got wrong about this game despite ultimately getting the win right: AB did not score 23, Ben did not have 28, Scott was not losing 70-20 at one point (just 70-40), and neither the Vikings nor Jags won in blowouts.

I'd like to say that Chris would've won if he started Godwin and Funchess over Jackson and Westbrook, though it's unfair to think anybody would start Godwin and not Jackson. More likely to play both Bucs receivers against the Steelers, which would NOT have been enough to win. So it's not really a fair and accurate charge.

Still, Chris could've won if he didn't screw up his lineup. 

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