LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 25-23
Chris astutely observed (2 weeks after I did) that there hadn't been a lot of trades this year. Gary astutely responded (2 weeks after I did) that he thought it was because every team was still in the hunt and not ready to sell off. Great analysis, guys!
I do think we're going to have a pretty frantic Tuesday and Wednesday because 3-4 teams are going to pack it in after this week and try to sell for as many picks as they can get before the freeze. But for now, still nobody wants to share you, NFL players.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (5-4) vs. WTTK? (4-5)
Mike Barker offered me Rex Burkhead and a 2nd for Mark Ingram. That's really just offering me a 2nd, which is fine. I countered with Ingram for Tyler Lockett, which was swiftly rejected. Lockett did go off last week for 33 points, outscoring Ingram by 20 points in Week 9. And that put Lockett ahead of Ingram on YTD date points by...20. Barker has a lot of WR and desperately needs a RB. I have RB to spare and could use a WR. Made sense to me at least.
McCamey has dropped 4 games in a row and it's about to be 5. With his upcoming 4-6 record, you'd think McCamey might be making a lot of trades come Tuesday, but he'll still only be 1.5 games out of his division lead. So he has a chance. But he'd have a much better chance if he had listened to me a month ago and made a bunch of splash trades with the cap space he had. I told him to take advantage of the soft schedule he started out with, but instead he waited until he lost a bunch of games and then loaded up on expensive backup kickers and QBs. Now he has $0.23 of cap space left and very difficult go/no go decision coming up next week.
Godwin is due to go off this week, but Kittle might miss the game. With Rivers, Ekeler, and Waller letting Bill down on Thursday night, and all of my guys except Odell ready to go off, swapping in John Brown for Kittle just won't be enough.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 105 - WTTK 83
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (5-4) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-4)
Gary should change his team name to John Wick because yeah, he's thinking he's back. Matt Ryan is back, Alvin Kamara is back, and Devonta Freeman is somehow back after getting cut, then picked up by McCamey, then traded to McCamey. I mean...did I dream those email alerts?
Did you know that Derrick Henry is the #9 RB right now? That's an exceptionally quiet accumulation of points. But Tennessee is going to play Dion Lewis a lot more this week as they pass to catch up to the Chiefs, and the Saints defense will suppress Ryan, Freeman, and Julio.
Did you know that Mike Evans is currently the #1 scoring WR and has 2 30-point games and 1 40-point game? He should go off again this week and Christian Kirk, DJ, and Mahomes will all come along for the ride.
Except the Thursday players, Gurley, and Brett Maher, everybody in this matchup plays in the 1pm slot, so this one will be done early. I'm sure watching SNF and MNF when he needs points is an incredibly stressful experience for Gary as he lives and dies with every single play. But this week I assume he will realize that Brett Maher is not going to score 43 points before the Cowboys game starts. Meanwhile, the other owner in this matchup who easily gets the vapors, Larry, will go from thinking his season is over after dropping 2 in a row to thinking he might defend his title.
THE PICK: TWR 110 - RFD 80
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-6) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS (4-5)
Brian has no chance of winning his division, so he must have the win to keep even slim playoff hopes alive. He will be relying on one Bill, one Brown, and one Dolphin to help him pull it off. Admittedly, it doesn't look good on paper.
On the other hand, can Tim rely count on Jared Goff and Robert Woods to do much outside in the cold against a frisky Steelers defense? And Sammy Watkins has once again pulled off his patented move, having a huge game early in the season to make everybody think this is the year, then doing jack shit the rest of the way. Tim is still starting him this week.
If both of these teams, two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, are 4-6 after this week, they technically still have a chance. If Tim wins and moves to 5-5, he'd have a playoff spot at the moment. If Brian loses and moves to 3-7, he'll at least have the peace of knowing it's finally over. I'm really not sure which result he'd prefer this week.
I guess...uh...Tim wins?
THE PICK: SS 78 - CC 73
LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-5) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-6)
A.J. Green is still out this week, and here are Scott's options on the bench to replace him: Dez Bryant and 5 guys on a bye. So he needs to make a move to pick up somebody else to play RB/WR, and he needs another move to replace his team MVP, the Patriots defense. He currently has $0.10 in cap space. And he has to do something so he doesn't incur $10 in dead lineup fines. This is really going to be fun to watch.
I was thinking there was a legitimate chance Scott could break the record for fewest points scored this week until I looked in the league history a little more. The top 5 lowest scores in history are all in the 20s. (#1 is technically a 0, I'm assuming from a bad roster in the 2000s). But even in 2018, Brian Barker posted like a 34, and in 2017 Larry had a 26. So Scott won't have the lowest score in history this week, but it will be unbelievably bad.
Semi, desperate for a win, gets a gift this week and will jump to the top spot in the bottom division.
THE PICK: LBJ 89 - TDHAF 40
ANIMAL HOUSE (5-4) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (5-4)
After multiple years of having the most points against, I'm fine with Mike Barker being above .500 because he has the fewest points against so far.
I'm not too sure what else to say about this impending blowout, except it's wild that Meyers is about to win 5 in a row and get right back into the hunt after looking dead in the water at 1-4.
THE PICK: AH 112 - TNB 71
ASSTANNER (8-1) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-6)
Speaking of points against, Bri Williams has faced 1081 points this season, an average of 120 points for his opponents each week. He's the only team to score 1000+ this season and is 3-6. If he wins this game, he's still alive and if anybody could close out the season with 5 straight wins, it's him. If he loses, Tuesday could see a Dalvin Cook sweepstakes that would be so high stakes it might make ESPN. Bri could basically crown a champion by deciding who he trades Dalvin to. He should demand multiple picks in multiple years. He should demand one draft pick to even return your first email asking Dalvin's price.
But man, nothing like trying to save your season with franchise QB DeShaun Watson on a bye. Nothing like relying on Jameis Winston to not throw 4 picks and score 5 points. Josh Jacobs got out to a great start, but was balanced out by Melvin Gordon. Singletary and Kupp should do well, as should Kelce, but Lamar will go wild against the Bengals.
The Sunday Night game, obviously, will be enormous with Dalvin on one side and Zeke and Amari on the other. But Chris will also have Carson standing by for MNF. Bri will need to have a massive lead to feel secure after the afternoon games wrap up.
Man, this is huge. I really want Bri to win. Partly it's always good when Chris loses, partly because I want him to still be alive and not trigger DalvinFest 2019.
So here's my prediction. Here's a wild one.
Bri will be winning Sunday and looking good. Then Dalvin will get hurt, Zeke and Amari will take the lead, and Carson will run it up Monday with 10 more points. Bri's entire season will go down in flames, leaving a massive crater behind. There won't be enough clarity on Dalvin's injury by Wednesday night for anybody to make a big enough offer.
THE PICK: AT 122 - TKSMB 103
Friday, November 8, 2019
Friday, November 1, 2019
AFFL Week 9 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 21-21
I can't get out of the .500s!
Actually, I have a half-baked theory that will probably never fully bake, but I think the standings are so close this season because more points are being scored and individual matchups are becoming more random.
Last year, teams averaged 87 PPG. Through 8 weeks this season, teams are averaging 99 PPG. And I'm sure there's somewhere to look this up, but it also seems like more guys than ever are posting 25+ points in a game, and even more 35+ point games. It's just shootouts all around and I don't see anything changing throughout the regular season or playoffs.
It makes each matchup more interesting and more games are coming down to the wire, but I don't know if it means anything beyond that.
Speaking of not always understanding what things mean...
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-5) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-4)
Tevin Coleman only scoring 5 points the week after he posted 35 was the most obvious thing ever, and yet it was impossible to bench him because of those 35 points. I wish those 35 points would've translated into a win, but Boswell had to miss that 54 yarder and that was that.
I also wish that Garoppolo didn't have his best game of the season last night, but I'm not too worried about this one. Dak and Saquon will have this game finished off for me in the first quarter Monday night.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 91 - TDHAF 74
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-4) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (4-4)
I am sure Gary never envisioned facing Tim in a must-win game to keep his playoff hopes going, knowing that if he lost it would present a potential tiebreaker problem down the line. But here we are in the year of Tim.
Fournette should run wild in England, Diggs will get loose in KC, and Aaron Jones will score in the Packers' home game in Los Angeles. Starting Rudolph is a pretty big problem for Tim, though. I'm sure Indy will just drop umbrella coverage and limit his deep balls.
On the other hand, it's not like Derrick Henry, Alshon, or Royce Freeman are gonna do a whole hell of a lot. I wouldn't expect much from Robby Anderson either since Miami is going to "upset" the Jets.
In other news, Gary picked up Rashaad Penny after I cut him last week, even though I traded a 5th round pick or something to Gary for Penny earlier this season. I'm sure this double dipping makes Gary positively giddy, even though Penny won't do anything for him in 2019, or in 2020 after he selects him with that extra 5th rounder.
You know all that extra scoring I mentioned in the intro? You're not going to find any of it in this game.
THE PICK: SS 75 - RFD 68
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-5)
As tight as the standings are and probably will remain, I still wouldn't want to be the first team to 6 losses. Watching Christian Kirk only score 2.6 points last night is a good head start on avoiding that loss.
This matchup features 4 players from IND/PIT on Sunday, and 3 of them are Colts. Larry is stacking Jacoby and T.Y. against Mack and JuJu. I don't really like any of their chances to do anything great.
BREAKING: T.Y. Hilton got hurt in practice and is going to miss 3-4 weeks. Corey Davis, come on down!
There are 3 more players from TB/SEA here, and I like Semi's Russ/Metcalf stack a lot better than Mike Evans. Semi keeps the dream alive for at least more one week.
THE PICK: LBJ 94 - TWR 77
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-5) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-4)
Meyers was down and out just a few weeks ago, but after blowing out Brian Barker this week, he's going to be above .500. Life is funny sometimes.
THE PICK: AH 105 - CC 66
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-5)
The Cam era has come to an ignominious close. Remember the good old days, when you could've traded for him for only seven 1st round picks? What a time.
Bri left Kenyan Drake on the bench last night, piling up 26.2 meaningless points. He might be slightly miffed about it now, but he'll have forgotten about it by Sunday night. Jacobs, Singletary, and Dalvin will all make up for it.
Tyler Lockett should score against Tampa, but everything Hopkins does gives a little back to Bri and DeShaun. Barker just doesn't have the firepower to keep up in this one.
THE PICK: TKSMNB 108 - TNB 86
WTTK? (4-4) vs. ASSTANNER (7-1)
CBS thinks this is going to be a 1-point game after Kittle put 16 last night. I disagree.
THE PICK: AT 101 - WTTK 85
SEASON: 21-21
I can't get out of the .500s!
Actually, I have a half-baked theory that will probably never fully bake, but I think the standings are so close this season because more points are being scored and individual matchups are becoming more random.
Last year, teams averaged 87 PPG. Through 8 weeks this season, teams are averaging 99 PPG. And I'm sure there's somewhere to look this up, but it also seems like more guys than ever are posting 25+ points in a game, and even more 35+ point games. It's just shootouts all around and I don't see anything changing throughout the regular season or playoffs.
It makes each matchup more interesting and more games are coming down to the wire, but I don't know if it means anything beyond that.
Speaking of not always understanding what things mean...
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-5) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-4)
Tevin Coleman only scoring 5 points the week after he posted 35 was the most obvious thing ever, and yet it was impossible to bench him because of those 35 points. I wish those 35 points would've translated into a win, but Boswell had to miss that 54 yarder and that was that.
I also wish that Garoppolo didn't have his best game of the season last night, but I'm not too worried about this one. Dak and Saquon will have this game finished off for me in the first quarter Monday night.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 91 - TDHAF 74
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-4) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (4-4)
I am sure Gary never envisioned facing Tim in a must-win game to keep his playoff hopes going, knowing that if he lost it would present a potential tiebreaker problem down the line. But here we are in the year of Tim.
Fournette should run wild in England, Diggs will get loose in KC, and Aaron Jones will score in the Packers' home game in Los Angeles. Starting Rudolph is a pretty big problem for Tim, though. I'm sure Indy will just drop umbrella coverage and limit his deep balls.
On the other hand, it's not like Derrick Henry, Alshon, or Royce Freeman are gonna do a whole hell of a lot. I wouldn't expect much from Robby Anderson either since Miami is going to "upset" the Jets.
In other news, Gary picked up Rashaad Penny after I cut him last week, even though I traded a 5th round pick or something to Gary for Penny earlier this season. I'm sure this double dipping makes Gary positively giddy, even though Penny won't do anything for him in 2019, or in 2020 after he selects him with that extra 5th rounder.
You know all that extra scoring I mentioned in the intro? You're not going to find any of it in this game.
THE PICK: SS 75 - RFD 68
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-5)
As tight as the standings are and probably will remain, I still wouldn't want to be the first team to 6 losses. Watching Christian Kirk only score 2.6 points last night is a good head start on avoiding that loss.
This matchup features 4 players from IND/PIT on Sunday, and 3 of them are Colts. Larry is stacking Jacoby and T.Y. against Mack and JuJu. I don't really like any of their chances to do anything great.
BREAKING: T.Y. Hilton got hurt in practice and is going to miss 3-4 weeks. Corey Davis, come on down!
There are 3 more players from TB/SEA here, and I like Semi's Russ/Metcalf stack a lot better than Mike Evans. Semi keeps the dream alive for at least more one week.
THE PICK: LBJ 94 - TWR 77
CHUBBY CHASERS (3-5) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-4)
Meyers was down and out just a few weeks ago, but after blowing out Brian Barker this week, he's going to be above .500. Life is funny sometimes.
THE PICK: AH 105 - CC 66
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-5)
The Cam era has come to an ignominious close. Remember the good old days, when you could've traded for him for only seven 1st round picks? What a time.
Bri left Kenyan Drake on the bench last night, piling up 26.2 meaningless points. He might be slightly miffed about it now, but he'll have forgotten about it by Sunday night. Jacobs, Singletary, and Dalvin will all make up for it.
Tyler Lockett should score against Tampa, but everything Hopkins does gives a little back to Bri and DeShaun. Barker just doesn't have the firepower to keep up in this one.
THE PICK: TKSMNB 108 - TNB 86
WTTK? (4-4) vs. ASSTANNER (7-1)
CBS thinks this is going to be a 1-point game after Kittle put 16 last night. I disagree.
THE PICK: AT 101 - WTTK 85
Friday, October 25, 2019
AFFL Week 8 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
Anyway, I'm going to run my game last because I have a lot of Odell talk and if I rant and rave up front, I'll use up all of my energy and the rest of the games will get two sentence previews. And you all deserve so much better.
SEASON: 18-18
The bye weeks are already starting to create some fun times with quarterbacks and the cap. It shouldn't come to this every year, we shouldn't make the same mistakes every year, but when it comes to Teddy B and Matt Moore, a couple of owners are gonna have to fuck and run.
Anyway, I'm going to run my game last because I have a lot of Odell talk and if I rant and rave up front, I'll use up all of my energy and the rest of the games will get two sentence previews. And you all deserve so much better.
Also, I am tired of all of your team names so I am renaming every team with the Wu Tang Name Generator.
PROPHET TALL (2-5) vs. FREEBOOTER GOLDEN (4-3)
It's possible that Prophet Tall could lose this week and then rip off 6 straight wins and back into the playoffs at 8-6, but I don't know how likely that is. Every win is crucial and Dalvin Cook certainly provided a good head start last night. But Josh Jacobs might miss this week with an injury and Travis Kelce could be limited by Matt Moore and the Prophet doesn't have anybody good to replace them. Also, I realize Sony Michel's fantasy points are good lately but his actual numbers are terrible and a bad game has to be coming up soon.
Kupp and Zuerlein should be good this week because the Rams face the Bengals and there's always lots of kicking in London games. Plus...DeShaun.
Although Stafford should keep close to DeShaun against the Giants, and Latavius can have another good game against the Cards. But I'm not sure about Julio if Matt Ryan is down and I don't like Derrick Henry in general, and specifically this week since Tampa can stop the run but not the pass. And Brandin Cooks doesn't do anything at all any more. On the other hand, I'm also not sure who Gary can start instead.
Defenses should be nice, though.
Last week I really wanted to pick Bri to lose, didn't have the courage to do it, and then watched him lose. Maybe something will be different this week.
THE PICK: PT 103 - FG 84
GRUS AMERICANA PINKY (3-4) vs. TRACKER BAD (3-4)
Terry McLaurin is very good and will only get better. I'm still not sure Tracker Bad should've started him last night with Washington running a league-low 42 plays per game. Putrid. He should've put in somebody from his bench like...
HANG
THE
FUCK
ON
DEZ BRYANT?
HE HAS DEZ FUCKING BRYANT ON HIS BENCH? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
So...let me get this straight. The idea is that Dez Bryant, who wasn't good any more before tearing his achilles, will make an NFL comeback, sign with some team, pick up the offense, and be good down the stretch? Is that it? The chances of this happening are so good, that Scott felt the need to add Dez as his 15th player even before an NFL team added him as their 53rd player.
Tracker Bad has $2.27 committed to 2 wide receivers that haven't played a snap this season between AJ and Dez, and Dez may never play again. He turned down multiple trade options for Odell, which...fine.
Tracker Bad has 150 points fewer than Prophet Tall this season, or 21 PPG fewer.
He has 1 more win.
Jesus Christ.
THE PICK: GAP 89 - TB 68
VANQUISHER DARK (5-2) vs. BANDIT PESKY (6-1)
I thought Bandit Pesky picked up Bisi Johnson (only one of those names is made up) just to be cap legal. I didn't think he was actually going to play him. I get that Thielen was out and Washington stinks, but that's a little too much of fantasy football genius writer move for my tastes.
That's what happens when you have no cap space, I guess. Hang on to Melvin Gordon at $1.77 for his 2 yards per carry, though.
Moore is going to throw for like 130 yards against the Packers, and Gordon might run for 13 againt the Bears. Golladay and Carson are going to be pretty nice, though.
Vanquisher Dark needs to get David Johnson out the starting lineup this week and might want to make a FA pickup based on how few guys on his bench are still alive. On the other hand, why bother against this lineup Chris is trotting out? Hell, start DJ and Malcolm Brown even though both are out. That would be some flex.
THE PICK: VD 84 - BP 60
CONQUEROR UNPLEASANT (3-4) vs. MITT FICKLE (3-4)
Conqueror Unpleasant turned down an offer of Odell Beckham straight up for Miles Sanders. MILES SANDERS. He also just signed Michael Thomas this week, which will bump his 2020 salary up to $2.16 next year, which is about how much Odell costs, right after saying he couldn't afford him.
Anyway, Russell has a great matchup this week, both Mack and Lindsay are decent, and Michael Thomas is matchup proof, even against Patrick Peterson. DJ Chark and JuJu should even get loose against extremely bad teams this week.
Two straight wins have Mitt Fickle back in the hunt, temporarily pausing the grave digging work everybody was doing for them. We got to about 5 feet down and then stopped to see what happens. Brady and Edelman should light up the Browns because I'm sure Belichick wants to score 50 on them, and Conner should have a huge game against Miami. And who knows what the Rams D is capable of against Andy Dalton. (I also feel like London games have an unusually high number of defensive TDs. I'm sure I could look that up somewhere if I felt like it.)
But the Niners can slow McCaffrey (so he only scores 14, not 24) and Le'Veon just has no room to work at all. I think we can go back to digging after this week.
THE PICK: CU 107 - MF 93
NINJA AMAZING (4-3) vs BUDDHIST WELL-THOUGHT-OF (2-5)
You know you're having a bad season when you even end up with the worst Wu name. The hell is that?
The Bengals have 372 rushing yards this season and have allowed 1,323. This is one of the worst ratios in league history. It's not going to get any better this week. Joe Mixon might not play another game for Ninja Amazing this season, and it might be time to move on from his franchise player already. If only there was an incredibly dynamic FP out there who's trade value was as low as it'll ever be.
Minshew should bounce back against the Jets this week (I mean like...14 points), and if Keenan Allen is out, Ekeler might catch another 15 passes. Plus, Godwin, Waller, and John Brown all have nice matchups this week.
I put in for Ty Johnson this week like everybody else, but let's see him actually do something first before we get too excited. Nick Chubb isn't going to have room to run.
Good lord, this is an ugly game. The lucky run continues for Ninja Amazing. It's really time to make some splash trades and take advantage of this break.
THE PICK: NA 79 - BWTO 50
GENUS MUSTELA MIDNIGHT (3-4) vs. ADJUDICATOR OPTICAL (4-3)
Okay...so, Odell. I can't even give him away right now. Everybody is so afraid of his contract, and even Gary is chiming in about it being a huge mistake. So I just asked Gary flat out what the penalty is for cutting him and...
...y'all are complete babies.
If I cut him this year, the 2020 cap penalty is like $1.18. If I cut him next year, the 2021 penalty is $1.13.
$1.13!
I have a $2 QB, a $1.55 RB, and the most expensive kicker in the league and I still have $0.40 in cap space. McCamey was sitting on $1.50 in space last week. Scott just signed a guy who isn't even in the league for $0.75.
Yes, the Browns are off to a poor start this season. Yes, it seems impossible that they will turn it around.
Hey, for no reason at all, here are the Browns' opponents in certain weeks still to come:
Week 12 (double week) - MIA
Week 14 (Wild Card) - CIN
Week 15 (Conf Champ) - ARI
Week 16 (AFFL Bowl) - BAL
Would be totally awful to have a guy who can take a slant route 80 yards for a TD against very terrible defenses in some very important weeks this winter. Not a good strategy at all if you're trying to make a run this year.
Anyway, while I'm complaining this week, after I was done complaining last week about a lack of trades, Gary reached out to me to talk. I thought we might actually get somewhere so I told him the only guys he had that I was interested in were Kamara and Julio and the only guy I have who's off limits is Saquon.
He fired over the following offer:
Julio Jones
FOR
Mark Ingram
Tyreek Hill
2020 1st
2020 2nd
Now...Ingram is currently outscoring Julio. Tyreek got hurt, but they have the same PPG. Tyreek was the #1 WR last year. Both are cheaper than Julio.
I mean...I don't want to hear about my offers being ridiculous ever again.
Anyway, let's finally talk about this matchup. Ironically, after all that Odell fuss, there's a legitimate chance I bench him for AJ Brown this week. As absurd as that sounds, Odell isn't going to pile up yards against Stephon Gilmore and Baker is also going to be seeing ghost this week. He's going to be TD or bust, whereas AJ faces a bad Tampa pass D. AJ might score 20 this week, believe it or not.
If Brees actually plays this week - which would make NO sense with their bye coming next week - the amount of roster maneuvering I'm going to have to do to replace Teddy B will be asburd. And it probably won't even matter because Tim has all good matchups this week, and every single one of my guys is a question mark.
THE PICK: GMM 113 - AO 94
PROPHET TALL (2-5) vs. FREEBOOTER GOLDEN (4-3)
It's possible that Prophet Tall could lose this week and then rip off 6 straight wins and back into the playoffs at 8-6, but I don't know how likely that is. Every win is crucial and Dalvin Cook certainly provided a good head start last night. But Josh Jacobs might miss this week with an injury and Travis Kelce could be limited by Matt Moore and the Prophet doesn't have anybody good to replace them. Also, I realize Sony Michel's fantasy points are good lately but his actual numbers are terrible and a bad game has to be coming up soon.
Kupp and Zuerlein should be good this week because the Rams face the Bengals and there's always lots of kicking in London games. Plus...DeShaun.
Although Stafford should keep close to DeShaun against the Giants, and Latavius can have another good game against the Cards. But I'm not sure about Julio if Matt Ryan is down and I don't like Derrick Henry in general, and specifically this week since Tampa can stop the run but not the pass. And Brandin Cooks doesn't do anything at all any more. On the other hand, I'm also not sure who Gary can start instead.
Defenses should be nice, though.
Last week I really wanted to pick Bri to lose, didn't have the courage to do it, and then watched him lose. Maybe something will be different this week.
THE PICK: PT 103 - FG 84
GRUS AMERICANA PINKY (3-4) vs. TRACKER BAD (3-4)
Terry McLaurin is very good and will only get better. I'm still not sure Tracker Bad should've started him last night with Washington running a league-low 42 plays per game. Putrid. He should've put in somebody from his bench like...
HANG
THE
FUCK
ON
DEZ BRYANT?
HE HAS DEZ FUCKING BRYANT ON HIS BENCH? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
So...let me get this straight. The idea is that Dez Bryant, who wasn't good any more before tearing his achilles, will make an NFL comeback, sign with some team, pick up the offense, and be good down the stretch? Is that it? The chances of this happening are so good, that Scott felt the need to add Dez as his 15th player even before an NFL team added him as their 53rd player.
Tracker Bad has $2.27 committed to 2 wide receivers that haven't played a snap this season between AJ and Dez, and Dez may never play again. He turned down multiple trade options for Odell, which...fine.
Tracker Bad has 150 points fewer than Prophet Tall this season, or 21 PPG fewer.
He has 1 more win.
Jesus Christ.
THE PICK: GAP 89 - TB 68
VANQUISHER DARK (5-2) vs. BANDIT PESKY (6-1)
I thought Bandit Pesky picked up Bisi Johnson (only one of those names is made up) just to be cap legal. I didn't think he was actually going to play him. I get that Thielen was out and Washington stinks, but that's a little too much of fantasy football genius writer move for my tastes.
That's what happens when you have no cap space, I guess. Hang on to Melvin Gordon at $1.77 for his 2 yards per carry, though.
Moore is going to throw for like 130 yards against the Packers, and Gordon might run for 13 againt the Bears. Golladay and Carson are going to be pretty nice, though.
Vanquisher Dark needs to get David Johnson out the starting lineup this week and might want to make a FA pickup based on how few guys on his bench are still alive. On the other hand, why bother against this lineup Chris is trotting out? Hell, start DJ and Malcolm Brown even though both are out. That would be some flex.
THE PICK: VD 84 - BP 60
CONQUEROR UNPLEASANT (3-4) vs. MITT FICKLE (3-4)
Conqueror Unpleasant turned down an offer of Odell Beckham straight up for Miles Sanders. MILES SANDERS. He also just signed Michael Thomas this week, which will bump his 2020 salary up to $2.16 next year, which is about how much Odell costs, right after saying he couldn't afford him.
Anyway, Russell has a great matchup this week, both Mack and Lindsay are decent, and Michael Thomas is matchup proof, even against Patrick Peterson. DJ Chark and JuJu should even get loose against extremely bad teams this week.
Two straight wins have Mitt Fickle back in the hunt, temporarily pausing the grave digging work everybody was doing for them. We got to about 5 feet down and then stopped to see what happens. Brady and Edelman should light up the Browns because I'm sure Belichick wants to score 50 on them, and Conner should have a huge game against Miami. And who knows what the Rams D is capable of against Andy Dalton. (I also feel like London games have an unusually high number of defensive TDs. I'm sure I could look that up somewhere if I felt like it.)
But the Niners can slow McCaffrey (so he only scores 14, not 24) and Le'Veon just has no room to work at all. I think we can go back to digging after this week.
THE PICK: CU 107 - MF 93
NINJA AMAZING (4-3) vs BUDDHIST WELL-THOUGHT-OF (2-5)
You know you're having a bad season when you even end up with the worst Wu name. The hell is that?
The Bengals have 372 rushing yards this season and have allowed 1,323. This is one of the worst ratios in league history. It's not going to get any better this week. Joe Mixon might not play another game for Ninja Amazing this season, and it might be time to move on from his franchise player already. If only there was an incredibly dynamic FP out there who's trade value was as low as it'll ever be.
Minshew should bounce back against the Jets this week (I mean like...14 points), and if Keenan Allen is out, Ekeler might catch another 15 passes. Plus, Godwin, Waller, and John Brown all have nice matchups this week.
I put in for Ty Johnson this week like everybody else, but let's see him actually do something first before we get too excited. Nick Chubb isn't going to have room to run.
Good lord, this is an ugly game. The lucky run continues for Ninja Amazing. It's really time to make some splash trades and take advantage of this break.
THE PICK: NA 79 - BWTO 50
GENUS MUSTELA MIDNIGHT (3-4) vs. ADJUDICATOR OPTICAL (4-3)
Okay...so, Odell. I can't even give him away right now. Everybody is so afraid of his contract, and even Gary is chiming in about it being a huge mistake. So I just asked Gary flat out what the penalty is for cutting him and...
...y'all are complete babies.
If I cut him this year, the 2020 cap penalty is like $1.18. If I cut him next year, the 2021 penalty is $1.13.
$1.13!
I have a $2 QB, a $1.55 RB, and the most expensive kicker in the league and I still have $0.40 in cap space. McCamey was sitting on $1.50 in space last week. Scott just signed a guy who isn't even in the league for $0.75.
Yes, the Browns are off to a poor start this season. Yes, it seems impossible that they will turn it around.
Hey, for no reason at all, here are the Browns' opponents in certain weeks still to come:
Week 12 (double week) - MIA
Week 14 (Wild Card) - CIN
Week 15 (Conf Champ) - ARI
Week 16 (AFFL Bowl) - BAL
Would be totally awful to have a guy who can take a slant route 80 yards for a TD against very terrible defenses in some very important weeks this winter. Not a good strategy at all if you're trying to make a run this year.
Anyway, while I'm complaining this week, after I was done complaining last week about a lack of trades, Gary reached out to me to talk. I thought we might actually get somewhere so I told him the only guys he had that I was interested in were Kamara and Julio and the only guy I have who's off limits is Saquon.
He fired over the following offer:
Julio Jones
FOR
Mark Ingram
Tyreek Hill
2020 1st
2020 2nd
Now...Ingram is currently outscoring Julio. Tyreek got hurt, but they have the same PPG. Tyreek was the #1 WR last year. Both are cheaper than Julio.
I mean...I don't want to hear about my offers being ridiculous ever again.
Anyway, let's finally talk about this matchup. Ironically, after all that Odell fuss, there's a legitimate chance I bench him for AJ Brown this week. As absurd as that sounds, Odell isn't going to pile up yards against Stephon Gilmore and Baker is also going to be seeing ghost this week. He's going to be TD or bust, whereas AJ faces a bad Tampa pass D. AJ might score 20 this week, believe it or not.
If Brees actually plays this week - which would make NO sense with their bye coming next week - the amount of roster maneuvering I'm going to have to do to replace Teddy B will be asburd. And it probably won't even matter because Tim has all good matchups this week, and every single one of my guys is a question mark.
THE PICK: GMM 113 - AO 94
Friday, October 18, 2019
AFFL Week 7 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 15-15
The next 3 weeks are going to be pretty interesting heading into the freeze. No team is truly out of it, although Tim, Meyers, and the Brians will be if they drop 2 more games. Even Brian Williams, #1 team in the Power Rankings but maybe #6-7 in your heart, will have the holidays off if he loses 2 more.
But how much player for picks movement are we going to see in the next 4 weeks? Picks are totally devalued now, and here is the list of players that could be a high 2020 draft pick based on current contracts:
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-3) vs THE NIGHT BOYS (3-3)
Just to be clear, it's obvious that I do not see player value the same as everybody else in the league, and that's okay. We all have the same information at this point and some people are going to interpret it in different ways. But for the life of me, I cannot figure out how Mark Ingram gets drafted in the 2nd round in 2019, has a top-15 RB season, and LOSES a round in value. Scott does have a valid point that Ingram's total is skewed with a 33-point game, but how many guys can actually put up a 33-point game?
I guess it's just me, which is fine, since I mostly want to trade out of boredom.
Elsewhere, I truly cannot believe I waited weeks to have Saquon and Tyreek back together and now I may not be able to start Tyreek for another month. At least he got one last night.
But either way, Saquon is back, and if Devonta Freeman could score 24 against the Cardinals defense, how many is Saquon going to put up? 40? Kyle Shanahan loves Tevin Coleman and hates Dan Snyder, so he's going to look to pile up the points, and Mark Ingram doesn't do anything but score touchdowns. One concern is needing to bench Allen Robinson against Marshon Lattimore, who is shutting down everybody he faces. That leaves me hoping that AJ Brown can get lucky on a couple from Ryan Tannehill, which is an all or nothing play. But Amari, Randall Cobb, and Tyron Smith are all expected to play now, so Dak will light up the Eagles.
DeAndre is bound to break out at some point, but I hope it's next week. Gore should score and run clock against Miami, but the rest of this lineup is a bunch of 11-point guys.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 122 - TNB 86
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (3-3) vs CHUBBY CHASERS (2-4)
Brian cannot possibly start the wrong QB this week because Jameis is on a bye. He CANNOT mess this up. Plus, Josh Allen is facing the lowly Dolphins, which will really help. And the Bears defense is facing a Saints team with no Brees AND no Kamara.
I really want to like the Chubbers big this week, but there are a lot of question marks here. Breida is secondary to Coleman right now, Keenan hasn't done anything in a month because the Chargers' o-line is made out of sand, and Detroit's defense should be able to take away either Thielen or Diggs. Engram should be nice against the Cardinals, though.
On the other hand, is Gary seriously going to win without Kamara? The Rams defense hasn't been the same this year and Atlanta is home this week, but it's asking a lot for Ryan, Freeman, and Julio to win a game for him two weeks in a row. Jags D against Cincy is nice, but it'll only balance out the Bears.
Hmm. This is interesting. Brian was ready to throw in the towel on the season just last week, but a win here puts him right back in it with Chubb coming off a bye next week. He could be .500 before you know it. Whereas Gary plays the other Bri next week, meaning he could be 3-5 and facing some tough decisions.
I mean, how can this not be a Chubby week when they got 11.6 points from Courtland Sutton in a game in which it looked like the Broncos were giving up? Chasers roll this week.
THE PICK: CC 93 - RFD 79
ASSTANNER (5-1) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-3)
There is nothing you can offer Chris to pry Lamar Jackson away. Believe me, I tried. Actually, there's another guy who should be signed to a contract. If Chris waits much longer, he's going to cost $2.40 next season. It's worth cutting Calvin Ridley to make room for Lamar.
This game features both quarterbacks from the BAL/SEA game (neat!), and Semi with both backs from the IND/HOU game (yuck!) This is going to be a pretty low scoring game outside of the two quarterbacks. Zeke is Zeke, but the Eagles can stop the run and they can't stop the pass, and even Jason Garrett shouldn't be able to screw up that game plan. Melvin Gordon suddenly isn't good any more, and the Vikings D can slow down Golladay and the Lions.
Michael Thomas is the only guys the Bears have to worry about, so he'll be held down. DJ Chark is surprisingly awesome, but these first outdoor, windy, cold games never go well for southern teams.
That basically leaves Chris Carson to be the difference in this one.
THE PICK: AT 81 - LBJ 76
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-3) vs THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-2)
I guess I need to root for Scott for divisional purposes. Now I'll know what he goes through every week. It's hard to believe he's won at all this season, but since he's 6th in PF and 7th in PA, I guess a 3-3 record makes sense. That PA is only going to get better this week with Mahomes only putting up 6 before he got hurt, and Gurley in danger of not playing at all (if Gurley is out, I am ABSOLUTELY putting in Darrell Henderson).
T.Y. and Henry should be nice, though, and the Bills D can do some damage against the Dolphins.
Wentz should be passing a lot trying to keep up with Dallas, but the Pats won't need to pass much against the Jets, so forget about James White. Terry McLaurin is great (and McLaurin F1 is an amazing nickname), but the Niners defense is going to destroy Washington. That leaves Scott with 2 TEs, a kicker who might be cut after 2 weeks, and a Patriots D that is finally facing a good QB on the road in prime time.
Scott is heading toward his worst score of the season.
THE PICK: TWR 84 - TDHAF 65
ANIMAL HOUSE (2-4) vs WTTK? (4-2)
One team that definitely won't be trading their players away for picks is Animal House. And in this matchup, a game he must win against the 10th-highest scoring team in the league, he was forced to start 2 Broncos receivers because his bench consists of 1 QB and 5 guys on bye. And Edelman, in his starting lineup, is no sure thing to play.
If there was ever a time for a trade to save a season, along with one owner signaling that he was so desperate to make a trade that he could be ripped off, this was it. But...nothing. Just gonna sit there and take it.
(Meyers, if you're reading this, there's still time! I can still be had!)
McCamey is starting Minshew over Rivers if you're still wondering about the power of television to influence society. I know Rivers and the Chargers looked terrible in front of a national audience last week, but Minshew looked terrible in private last week. Only 3.5 points.
McCamey is benching franchise player Joe Mixon in favor of Austin Ekeler, who's now a glorified swing back until the Chargers give up on Gordon.
Speaking of trade opportunities, I'm aware that the Odell contract is...cumbersome. But damn, I just watched like 4 teams start the year with around $.04 in cap space and turn out just fine. Dropping the cap penalty for cutting a guy has completely changed the math. McCamey has $1.50 in cap space, a #1 WR with a bad toe, a franchise back he doesn't even play any more, tons of contract space in 2020, and a (soon to be) 5-2 record that he lucked in to thanks to a combination of the fewest PA and being in the worst division. If there was ever a time to make a big, bold splash move, it's now!
I've reached out to him and all but said please rip me off, but...nothing. I've seen more courage from Mitt Romney.
THE PICK: WTTK 98 - AH 69
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-4) vs SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER
Bri has absolutely blown away my skewed Power Rankings / Record ratio from last year. This is truly something to behold. Although, curiously, only the 2nd-most PA so far. Meyers has faced 25 more points from opponents to date.
Wait, Tim started Noah Fant this week? Even with all of the guys he has on bye, he didn't want to drop his backup kicker or franchise player who isn't returning until Week 10 and won't take the job from Nick Chubb anyway for somebody better than Noah Fant? Do I have that right?
Wow.
I mean, it's not like Bri got a ton out of Kelce last night, but he still did a lot more than Noah Fant.
Noah Fant? More like...no a fan of that move, am I right?!?
Jared Goff has been completely and utterly exposed, but so has the Falcons D, so maybe he can do something this week.
Speaking of, everybody jumps on "offensive gurus" who struggle with bad QBs like Adam Gase or Brian Billick or Jay Gruden or whomever, but Dan Quinn won a Super Bowl as the Seattle D coordinator and hasn't had a good defense in Atlanta in like 6 years. How is this any different? It's almost like...really good players make coaches look really good.
Although Randy Fichtner's next job is going to be at like Utah State or some shit.
Anyway, whether Goff targets Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods more will have a huge effect on this matchup. And did you know that Will Fuller dropped 3 more TDs last week? That's what the game recaps say, at least! If he can catch at least one against the Colts this week, that will really help out Bri a lot.
This matchup is a lot more interesting than it might seem at first glance. Both QBs have good matchups, though there's more chance of the Colts getting after Watson than the Falcons touching Goff. Fournette - who's quietly put up huge points this season - has a great matchup against the Bungles, but all of the other backs face decent to good defenses. Detroit might take Diggs away, but Fuller might take himself away.
As hilarious as it would be to see Bri fall to 2-5 after losing to Tim...as much as I am really, really hoping for it...I just can't see it.
THE PICK: TKSMB 101 - SS 90
SEASON: 15-15
The next 3 weeks are going to be pretty interesting heading into the freeze. No team is truly out of it, although Tim, Meyers, and the Brians will be if they drop 2 more games. Even Brian Williams, #1 team in the Power Rankings but maybe #6-7 in your heart, will have the holidays off if he loses 2 more.
But how much player for picks movement are we going to see in the next 4 weeks? Picks are totally devalued now, and here is the list of players that could be a high 2020 draft pick based on current contracts:
- Le'Veon Bell
- Amari Cooper (I'm assuming Chris will cut one of the Gordons and extend Amari, though maybe not since that would give him a $2.50+ price tag next year)
- Kenny Golladay (or as Joe Tessitore says, Galladay)
- Chris Carson
- Lamar Jackson
- Michael Thomas / JuJu (Why didn't Semi give these guys contracts right after the draft?)
- Aaron Jones (unless Tim franchises him)
- Chris Godwin (McCamey HAS to sign him up to a deal, right?)
- Mike Evans
- Todd Gurley (no idea what team he'll be on or if he'll have 2 knees)
- Dalvin Cook (next year's #1 pick)
- Odell / Tyreek
- Mark Ingram
- Tevin Coleman
- A buncha rookie running backs
In other words, the same first round nobody was excited about this year. Honestly, I think at this point if you're trending towards being out of the playoffs, you sign anybody and everybody that you think could be useful next year, cut whatever bad contracts are in their way, and keep your own picks to try and be better next year.
Also...I really cannot believe Michael Thomas and Godwin don't have contracts already. That is insane.
Speaking of guys nobody wants, I dedicate this week's song to Mark Ingram and Odell Beckham. Don't let them tell your place is in the middle and they hate when you shine. The joke's on them.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-3) vs THE NIGHT BOYS (3-3)
Just to be clear, it's obvious that I do not see player value the same as everybody else in the league, and that's okay. We all have the same information at this point and some people are going to interpret it in different ways. But for the life of me, I cannot figure out how Mark Ingram gets drafted in the 2nd round in 2019, has a top-15 RB season, and LOSES a round in value. Scott does have a valid point that Ingram's total is skewed with a 33-point game, but how many guys can actually put up a 33-point game?
I guess it's just me, which is fine, since I mostly want to trade out of boredom.
Elsewhere, I truly cannot believe I waited weeks to have Saquon and Tyreek back together and now I may not be able to start Tyreek for another month. At least he got one last night.
But either way, Saquon is back, and if Devonta Freeman could score 24 against the Cardinals defense, how many is Saquon going to put up? 40? Kyle Shanahan loves Tevin Coleman and hates Dan Snyder, so he's going to look to pile up the points, and Mark Ingram doesn't do anything but score touchdowns. One concern is needing to bench Allen Robinson against Marshon Lattimore, who is shutting down everybody he faces. That leaves me hoping that AJ Brown can get lucky on a couple from Ryan Tannehill, which is an all or nothing play. But Amari, Randall Cobb, and Tyron Smith are all expected to play now, so Dak will light up the Eagles.
DeAndre is bound to break out at some point, but I hope it's next week. Gore should score and run clock against Miami, but the rest of this lineup is a bunch of 11-point guys.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 122 - TNB 86
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (3-3) vs CHUBBY CHASERS (2-4)
Brian cannot possibly start the wrong QB this week because Jameis is on a bye. He CANNOT mess this up. Plus, Josh Allen is facing the lowly Dolphins, which will really help. And the Bears defense is facing a Saints team with no Brees AND no Kamara.
I really want to like the Chubbers big this week, but there are a lot of question marks here. Breida is secondary to Coleman right now, Keenan hasn't done anything in a month because the Chargers' o-line is made out of sand, and Detroit's defense should be able to take away either Thielen or Diggs. Engram should be nice against the Cardinals, though.
On the other hand, is Gary seriously going to win without Kamara? The Rams defense hasn't been the same this year and Atlanta is home this week, but it's asking a lot for Ryan, Freeman, and Julio to win a game for him two weeks in a row. Jags D against Cincy is nice, but it'll only balance out the Bears.
Hmm. This is interesting. Brian was ready to throw in the towel on the season just last week, but a win here puts him right back in it with Chubb coming off a bye next week. He could be .500 before you know it. Whereas Gary plays the other Bri next week, meaning he could be 3-5 and facing some tough decisions.
I mean, how can this not be a Chubby week when they got 11.6 points from Courtland Sutton in a game in which it looked like the Broncos were giving up? Chasers roll this week.
THE PICK: CC 93 - RFD 79
ASSTANNER (5-1) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-3)
There is nothing you can offer Chris to pry Lamar Jackson away. Believe me, I tried. Actually, there's another guy who should be signed to a contract. If Chris waits much longer, he's going to cost $2.40 next season. It's worth cutting Calvin Ridley to make room for Lamar.
This game features both quarterbacks from the BAL/SEA game (neat!), and Semi with both backs from the IND/HOU game (yuck!) This is going to be a pretty low scoring game outside of the two quarterbacks. Zeke is Zeke, but the Eagles can stop the run and they can't stop the pass, and even Jason Garrett shouldn't be able to screw up that game plan. Melvin Gordon suddenly isn't good any more, and the Vikings D can slow down Golladay and the Lions.
Michael Thomas is the only guys the Bears have to worry about, so he'll be held down. DJ Chark is surprisingly awesome, but these first outdoor, windy, cold games never go well for southern teams.
That basically leaves Chris Carson to be the difference in this one.
THE PICK: AT 81 - LBJ 76
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-3) vs THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-2)
I guess I need to root for Scott for divisional purposes. Now I'll know what he goes through every week. It's hard to believe he's won at all this season, but since he's 6th in PF and 7th in PA, I guess a 3-3 record makes sense. That PA is only going to get better this week with Mahomes only putting up 6 before he got hurt, and Gurley in danger of not playing at all (if Gurley is out, I am ABSOLUTELY putting in Darrell Henderson).
T.Y. and Henry should be nice, though, and the Bills D can do some damage against the Dolphins.
Wentz should be passing a lot trying to keep up with Dallas, but the Pats won't need to pass much against the Jets, so forget about James White. Terry McLaurin is great (and McLaurin F1 is an amazing nickname), but the Niners defense is going to destroy Washington. That leaves Scott with 2 TEs, a kicker who might be cut after 2 weeks, and a Patriots D that is finally facing a good QB on the road in prime time.
Scott is heading toward his worst score of the season.
THE PICK: TWR 84 - TDHAF 65
ANIMAL HOUSE (2-4) vs WTTK? (4-2)
One team that definitely won't be trading their players away for picks is Animal House. And in this matchup, a game he must win against the 10th-highest scoring team in the league, he was forced to start 2 Broncos receivers because his bench consists of 1 QB and 5 guys on bye. And Edelman, in his starting lineup, is no sure thing to play.
If there was ever a time for a trade to save a season, along with one owner signaling that he was so desperate to make a trade that he could be ripped off, this was it. But...nothing. Just gonna sit there and take it.
(Meyers, if you're reading this, there's still time! I can still be had!)
McCamey is starting Minshew over Rivers if you're still wondering about the power of television to influence society. I know Rivers and the Chargers looked terrible in front of a national audience last week, but Minshew looked terrible in private last week. Only 3.5 points.
McCamey is benching franchise player Joe Mixon in favor of Austin Ekeler, who's now a glorified swing back until the Chargers give up on Gordon.
Speaking of trade opportunities, I'm aware that the Odell contract is...cumbersome. But damn, I just watched like 4 teams start the year with around $.04 in cap space and turn out just fine. Dropping the cap penalty for cutting a guy has completely changed the math. McCamey has $1.50 in cap space, a #1 WR with a bad toe, a franchise back he doesn't even play any more, tons of contract space in 2020, and a (soon to be) 5-2 record that he lucked in to thanks to a combination of the fewest PA and being in the worst division. If there was ever a time to make a big, bold splash move, it's now!
I've reached out to him and all but said please rip me off, but...nothing. I've seen more courage from Mitt Romney.
THE PICK: WTTK 98 - AH 69
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-4) vs SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER
Bri has absolutely blown away my skewed Power Rankings / Record ratio from last year. This is truly something to behold. Although, curiously, only the 2nd-most PA so far. Meyers has faced 25 more points from opponents to date.
Wait, Tim started Noah Fant this week? Even with all of the guys he has on bye, he didn't want to drop his backup kicker or franchise player who isn't returning until Week 10 and won't take the job from Nick Chubb anyway for somebody better than Noah Fant? Do I have that right?
Wow.
I mean, it's not like Bri got a ton out of Kelce last night, but he still did a lot more than Noah Fant.
Noah Fant? More like...no a fan of that move, am I right?!?
Jared Goff has been completely and utterly exposed, but so has the Falcons D, so maybe he can do something this week.
Speaking of, everybody jumps on "offensive gurus" who struggle with bad QBs like Adam Gase or Brian Billick or Jay Gruden or whomever, but Dan Quinn won a Super Bowl as the Seattle D coordinator and hasn't had a good defense in Atlanta in like 6 years. How is this any different? It's almost like...really good players make coaches look really good.
Although Randy Fichtner's next job is going to be at like Utah State or some shit.
Anyway, whether Goff targets Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods more will have a huge effect on this matchup. And did you know that Will Fuller dropped 3 more TDs last week? That's what the game recaps say, at least! If he can catch at least one against the Colts this week, that will really help out Bri a lot.
This matchup is a lot more interesting than it might seem at first glance. Both QBs have good matchups, though there's more chance of the Colts getting after Watson than the Falcons touching Goff. Fournette - who's quietly put up huge points this season - has a great matchup against the Bungles, but all of the other backs face decent to good defenses. Detroit might take Diggs away, but Fuller might take himself away.
As hilarious as it would be to see Bri fall to 2-5 after losing to Tim...as much as I am really, really hoping for it...I just can't see it.
THE PICK: TKSMB 101 - SS 90
Friday, October 11, 2019
AFFL Week 6 Preview
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 12-12
How insane was last week? Semi broke the single-game scoring record and now has the 2nd-best single-game score in league history. He broke the record and didn't even win the week!
You don't who didn't score a lot of points, though? Yeah, you know. So it was time for drastic changes. Heads had to roll. So long, Baker. It was fun while it lasted, which really wasn't that long. As you can tell from these lyrics, Baker's taking the breakup pretty hard.
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (2-3) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2)
Gary is now 2-3 and has scored 124, 115, and 99 in his 3 losses. He's scored 129 and 61 in his 2 wins. I really, really am not going to get into a schedule thing, but I am amused it's happening to other people now. The 3rd- and 4th-highest totals this week both lost. Last week, the 3rd- and 4th-lowest scores both won. (Credit to numbers guy to Bri Williams for the Week 4 note)
But I think Gary is going to come to his loss this week a little more honestly. He's way too invested in a bad Falcons team that might have an extremely bad road loss this week, Kamara is dinged up and not getting free space from Teddy B. and Curtis Samuel is going to put D.J. Moore in his shadow in London.
Tyreek Hill may return this week and when Saquon returns next week, this Death Star will be fully operational. Samuel has been overdue for a breakout all season, and an 18-point game is coming Sunday. Ingram will score, Dak will torch the Jets, and Tevin Coleman will keep it rolling against the Rams.
I was hoping to just stay at .500 with Saquon and Tyreek out. I'll definitely take 2 games over.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RFD 85
CHUBBY CHASERS (1-4) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-2)
I say this empathy and understanding. That's a tough break on Baker. Clearly in franchising Odell, I was also in on some Browns offense this year, and it is just not happening. Brian is starting new acquisition Jameis over Minshew this week, and I'm not sure Jameis is going to be the calm, steady presence at QB that Brian was hoping for.
Thing is, Brian is not giving up Chubb or Keenan for picks (believe me, I asked) and it's not unrealistic that he could actually make a run and get back into it.
(Side note: I feel like in past years, 1-4 is the official starting gun for selling off your team for picks. Is hanging on to Chubb and Keenan because he'll have them next year the changing of the guard around picks value?)
I'm not ruling out something weird happening in Cleveland to Seattle this Sunday, Hollywood Brown hasn't practiced all week, and I'm not counting on the Devlin-JuJu connection just yet.
A good way to get back into the race is to start beating the teams ahead of you, and Brian takes the first step in the right direction this week.
THE PICK: CC 89 - LBJ 80
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-2) vs. WTTK? (4-1)
The red crosses spattered across Larry's lineup make it look like the battlefield in Gone With The Wind. Or, for you simpletons, that time Homer put a tramampoline in the backyard and they did a reference to that. Gurley probably won't play, but at least he has Malcolm Brown on the bench. But if Kirk and DJ are out as well, it's off to the free agent list for ye!
Interesting note from last week - Austin Ekeler set the record for the most receptions with the fewest yards. He had 15 catches for 86 yards, which is good for 16.1 in our new format. 7.5 points just for a bunch of 5 yards catches. I'm not saying whether it's good or bad, it's just curious.
Joe Mixon is another weird player. I think almost anybody would've drafted him if they could a couple of years ago, anybody would've put him a contract, and now McCamey isn't even playing him.
McCamey has faced the 2nd-fewest points on his way to this 4-1 record, and nothing is going to change this week. CBS has these two teams only 1 point apart, which I think is absurd.
THE PICK: WTTK 101 - TWR 77
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-3)
Scott's highest-scoring "player" - by 40 points! - is the Patriots defense. That has GOT to be a first in fantasy football at any point beyond Week 1. That defense has been his best weekly scorer twice already this season and they'll do it for a third time this week. That will mean Scott is going to 2-4 with his DST being his best player 50% of the time. What a life!
I can't imagine even the satisfaction Bri felt breaking the league scoring record 3 days after complaining that his team wasn't really going downhill. And let me tell, he's only barely slowing down this week. An entire lineup poised to completely go off again.
THE PICK: TKSMB 119 - TDHAF 90
ANIMAL HOUSE (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-3)
Meyers got off to a great start last night, but McCaffrey faces a surprisingly decent Tampa run defense (I'm aware he also catches passes), and every other matchup is poor to middling. Meyers has the inside track on the 2020 #1 pick right now.
Except...I think both 1-4 teams win and move to 2-4 this week. Tim just has absolutely nothing going this week. Meyers doesn't either, but at least he's off to a good start.
I offered Tim Odell for Aaron Jones and a middle pick and never heard back either way.
THE PICK: AH 86 - SS 70
ASSTANNER (4-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (3-2)
I also offered Barker Odell for Hopkins straight up. No go.
CBS has this as a 50/50 game at the moment, but Chris currently doesn't have an active defense. And with only $0.13 of cap space available, literally the only defense he can afford to replace the Raiders without making other roster moves. The one defense he could actually afford - the Niners - belongs to Tim right now. Talk about trade leverage! Chris might be on his way to the AFFL's first ever roster fine for starting a dead spot.
Thing is, he wants a defense because both he and Barker are loaded with great matchups and there should be a ton of points in this one. Golladay could be slowed by Jaire Alexander, and Ito needs to get chances instead of Devonta, but everybody else is looking G-R-E-A-T. Barker has 3 guys going in the ATL-ARI game, which is another time this season he's had a bunch of guys playing in one weird game, but this should be the week Hopkins finally breaks out.
THE PICK: TNB 93 - AT 89
SEASON: 12-12
How insane was last week? Semi broke the single-game scoring record and now has the 2nd-best single-game score in league history. He broke the record and didn't even win the week!
You don't who didn't score a lot of points, though? Yeah, you know. So it was time for drastic changes. Heads had to roll. So long, Baker. It was fun while it lasted, which really wasn't that long. As you can tell from these lyrics, Baker's taking the breakup pretty hard.
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (2-3) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2)
Gary is now 2-3 and has scored 124, 115, and 99 in his 3 losses. He's scored 129 and 61 in his 2 wins. I really, really am not going to get into a schedule thing, but I am amused it's happening to other people now. The 3rd- and 4th-highest totals this week both lost. Last week, the 3rd- and 4th-lowest scores both won. (Credit to numbers guy to Bri Williams for the Week 4 note)
But I think Gary is going to come to his loss this week a little more honestly. He's way too invested in a bad Falcons team that might have an extremely bad road loss this week, Kamara is dinged up and not getting free space from Teddy B. and Curtis Samuel is going to put D.J. Moore in his shadow in London.
Tyreek Hill may return this week and when Saquon returns next week, this Death Star will be fully operational. Samuel has been overdue for a breakout all season, and an 18-point game is coming Sunday. Ingram will score, Dak will torch the Jets, and Tevin Coleman will keep it rolling against the Rams.
I was hoping to just stay at .500 with Saquon and Tyreek out. I'll definitely take 2 games over.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RFD 85
CHUBBY CHASERS (1-4) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-2)
I say this empathy and understanding. That's a tough break on Baker. Clearly in franchising Odell, I was also in on some Browns offense this year, and it is just not happening. Brian is starting new acquisition Jameis over Minshew this week, and I'm not sure Jameis is going to be the calm, steady presence at QB that Brian was hoping for.
Thing is, Brian is not giving up Chubb or Keenan for picks (believe me, I asked) and it's not unrealistic that he could actually make a run and get back into it.
(Side note: I feel like in past years, 1-4 is the official starting gun for selling off your team for picks. Is hanging on to Chubb and Keenan because he'll have them next year the changing of the guard around picks value?)
I'm not ruling out something weird happening in Cleveland to Seattle this Sunday, Hollywood Brown hasn't practiced all week, and I'm not counting on the Devlin-JuJu connection just yet.
A good way to get back into the race is to start beating the teams ahead of you, and Brian takes the first step in the right direction this week.
THE PICK: CC 89 - LBJ 80
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-2) vs. WTTK? (4-1)
The red crosses spattered across Larry's lineup make it look like the battlefield in Gone With The Wind. Or, for you simpletons, that time Homer put a tramampoline in the backyard and they did a reference to that. Gurley probably won't play, but at least he has Malcolm Brown on the bench. But if Kirk and DJ are out as well, it's off to the free agent list for ye!
Interesting note from last week - Austin Ekeler set the record for the most receptions with the fewest yards. He had 15 catches for 86 yards, which is good for 16.1 in our new format. 7.5 points just for a bunch of 5 yards catches. I'm not saying whether it's good or bad, it's just curious.
Joe Mixon is another weird player. I think almost anybody would've drafted him if they could a couple of years ago, anybody would've put him a contract, and now McCamey isn't even playing him.
McCamey has faced the 2nd-fewest points on his way to this 4-1 record, and nothing is going to change this week. CBS has these two teams only 1 point apart, which I think is absurd.
THE PICK: WTTK 101 - TWR 77
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-3)
Scott's highest-scoring "player" - by 40 points! - is the Patriots defense. That has GOT to be a first in fantasy football at any point beyond Week 1. That defense has been his best weekly scorer twice already this season and they'll do it for a third time this week. That will mean Scott is going to 2-4 with his DST being his best player 50% of the time. What a life!
I can't imagine even the satisfaction Bri felt breaking the league scoring record 3 days after complaining that his team wasn't really going downhill. And let me tell, he's only barely slowing down this week. An entire lineup poised to completely go off again.
THE PICK: TKSMB 119 - TDHAF 90
ANIMAL HOUSE (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-3)
Meyers got off to a great start last night, but McCaffrey faces a surprisingly decent Tampa run defense (I'm aware he also catches passes), and every other matchup is poor to middling. Meyers has the inside track on the 2020 #1 pick right now.
Except...I think both 1-4 teams win and move to 2-4 this week. Tim just has absolutely nothing going this week. Meyers doesn't either, but at least he's off to a good start.
I offered Tim Odell for Aaron Jones and a middle pick and never heard back either way.
THE PICK: AH 86 - SS 70
ASSTANNER (4-1) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (3-2)
I also offered Barker Odell for Hopkins straight up. No go.
CBS has this as a 50/50 game at the moment, but Chris currently doesn't have an active defense. And with only $0.13 of cap space available, literally the only defense he can afford to replace the Raiders without making other roster moves. The one defense he could actually afford - the Niners - belongs to Tim right now. Talk about trade leverage! Chris might be on his way to the AFFL's first ever roster fine for starting a dead spot.
Thing is, he wants a defense because both he and Barker are loaded with great matchups and there should be a ton of points in this one. Golladay could be slowed by Jaire Alexander, and Ito needs to get chances instead of Devonta, but everybody else is looking G-R-E-A-T. Barker has 3 guys going in the ATL-ARI game, which is another time this season he's had a bunch of guys playing in one weird game, but this should be the week Hopkins finally breaks out.
THE PICK: TNB 93 - AT 89
Saturday, October 5, 2019
AFFL Week 5 Preview
LAST WEEK: 5-1 (That's more like it, baby boy!)
SEASON: 8-10
This song is dedicated to Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens. Put them on a pedestal, they'll only disappoint you.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-1) vs. ASSTANNER (3-1)
Saquon and Tyreek might return next week, and thanks to the gift win I received last week, I don't feel so bad about this upcoming loss. I just have too many gaps in my lineup right now with Dak facing a tough matchup against Green Bay, Mostert/Coleman, and Curtis Samuel. I promise you, those holes are not a result of me standing still and just taking it. I'm pretty sure every single owner in the league turned away trade talks with me this week. Guess nobody wants to trade until they're out of it or in need of a backup kicker before the roster freeze.
Now, Robinson and Samuel should be set for a breakout considering how much air traffic they've seen to start the season, and Titans should be able to get some turnovers against Buffalo since the Bills lead the league in turnovers, but it's more likely that I'm going to be let down.
I was feeling decent about my chances Thursday night until Carson caught that late TD. I'm facing Zeke in both of my leagues this week, which I'm not feeling decent about at all.
Now, in theory, if Robinson goes off the Raiders defense will struggle, and if Dak has a tough time against GB then Amari will too. Also, it's possible the Chiefs scoring wheel might not land on DeMarcus Robinson this week, and it's also possible that Josh Gordon doesn't do much because the Pats will have no need to pass against Washington.
It's possible that I should win if everything goes perfectly. I don't think it's likely, though.
THE PICK: AT 93 - TDHGNM 74
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (2-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-2)
Here's a thought. Meyers could be on his way to 1-4 and needs to clear out Le'Veon Bell in order to franchise McCaffrey before his 3/3 deal is up. The two teams most in position to pick up a franchise player right now are Tim (Kareem Hunt) and...Semi (Vikings DST).
Yes, I'm aware that Gary needs to clear out Devonta in order to franchise Kamara, but Devonta is useless any more.
If Semi wins this week and is right in the hunt in the worst division in the league, it might be time to make a move. And Russell Wilson gave him a great head start on getting that win. Problem is, the rest of this lineup is pretty suspect. Montgomery and Lindsay aren't doing much, Thomas is limited by Bridgewater, JuJu is limited by Rudolph, and Minshew Magic is bound to run into a down game eventually.
On the other hand, Gary has Matt Ryan, Kamara is equally limited by Bridgewater, and Brandin Cooks is limited by his game being over and him only having 6 points. I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be counting on Alshon and the Eagles DST to go off against the Jets, as bad as the Jets are.
Gary's lineup is going to be done for the week after the early games, and he's going to have to sweat out Lindsay and Brett Maher playing in the afternoon. I think he'll be fine. Big comeback win after the rough start on Thursday night.
THE PICK: RFD 97 - LBJ 90
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-2) vs. CHUBBY CHASERS (1-3)
Mike Barker is the lowest-scoring team in the league right now, which I feel has become a frequent occurrence in recent years. It certainly doesn't help that DeAndre Hopkins is only the 25th-best WR in the league, stuck between John Brown and Phillip Dorsett in the rankings.
(Odell is actually 27TH right now!)
But this is a good spot for him to ring up some points, move back above .500 and make his own in the worst division in the AFFL. Hopkins should finally explode against the Falcons at home, and Jordan Howard won't have another 3 TD game, but he is facing the Jets. Keith Butler will probably try to cover Mark Andrews with Stephon Tuitt or something, and the Jags can get at Kyle Allen.
The one concern is that Kyler and Fitz have a great matchup against Cincy, but the last team they came east for the early game, they only scored 10 points in Baltimore. I don't think that will happen here.
All of Barker's players will be done after the 1pm slot, while only two of Barker's players will be started by then. Thielen and the Bears should be decent to start, but the scoreboard is going to show something hilarious like 109 - 27 at 4pm.
Side note: It's going to be great when Minshew outscores Mayfield for a 4th straight week from the bench.
Second side note: Brian has both Darrel and Damien Williams, so he has 2 guys on his roster listed as D. WILLIAMS - RB - KC. How often do you think he has to click into their profiles to make sure he's starting the right one?
THE PICK: TNB 109 - CC 81
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (1-3) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-1)
It was highly amusing that I wasn't the only person assuming Tim was packing up the season once he hit 1-3, to the point that he had to issue a public proclamation to the league that he wasn't done yet. Great stuff.
Stefon Diggs might be benched for insolence, and if he does play and Cousins doesn't force feed against that terrible Giants secondary, it is over for him. Jammal Williams has to be ruled out this week after that massive head shot last Thursday, but the Packers will still find a way to screw up Aaron Jones' game. Sammy Watkins had 42 points in Week 1. He has 22.7 in Weeks 2-4.
Is T.Y. playing this week? Larry's in a bit of a quandary with him since he's playing Sunday night. If he waits to find out the news on the game time decision, there aren't a ton of guys available to pick up and spot start. And he probably does have to wait since his bench is banged up too.
Honestly, it probably won't even matter.
THE PICK: TWR 115 - SS 86
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-2) vs. WTTK? (3-1)
I reached out to Scott to discuss a trade as well, but he declined as well. I was a little miffed that he didn't even want to chat about, which is an interesting reaction, because I have absolutely no idea who I would want from his team. Wentz, I guess? I just get really restless with my lineup early in every season. None of you have ever pieced this together and tried to take advantage of it, so I am just telling you. Damn.
Scott is starting 2 TEs and a rookie WR in this game, but not the rookie WR he just signed to a franchise deal. His only hope in this game is Wentz, Ertz, and the Pats DST simply destroying inferior competition and covering up all the single digits his other players will post.
McCamey and Chris should figure out a Gordon/Ekeler deal so somebody can start both of them at the same time. If there's ever been a team and a year to start two backs from one team, this is it. (Yes, I am aware Chris already sent a 1st for Gordon in the summer.)
Imagine watching the Sunday night game and hoping LeSean McCoy can score 50 points so you have a chance to win.
THE PICK: WTTK 107 - TDHAF 67
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-3)
Take a guess as to whether Bri sent an agitated response to me declaring him to be out of it this year and on the decline in general.
I'll give you a moment.
He did.
He mentioned his overall point total and this and that and bunch of really defensive stuff. It's a very sensitive subject. And in fairness, he is going to absolute nuke a franchise that is actually on the decline. Meyers isn't even starting Le'Veon Bell this week (trade time?)
If it wasn't for Jacobs and Chris Thompson facing tough matchups, I might pick Bri to score 130 this week. I wouldn't hate to see Will Fuller get the start over Thompson, actually.
THE PICK: TKSMB 124 - AH 82
SEASON: 8-10
This song is dedicated to Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens. Put them on a pedestal, they'll only disappoint you.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-1) vs. ASSTANNER (3-1)
Saquon and Tyreek might return next week, and thanks to the gift win I received last week, I don't feel so bad about this upcoming loss. I just have too many gaps in my lineup right now with Dak facing a tough matchup against Green Bay, Mostert/Coleman, and Curtis Samuel. I promise you, those holes are not a result of me standing still and just taking it. I'm pretty sure every single owner in the league turned away trade talks with me this week. Guess nobody wants to trade until they're out of it or in need of a backup kicker before the roster freeze.
Now, Robinson and Samuel should be set for a breakout considering how much air traffic they've seen to start the season, and Titans should be able to get some turnovers against Buffalo since the Bills lead the league in turnovers, but it's more likely that I'm going to be let down.
I was feeling decent about my chances Thursday night until Carson caught that late TD. I'm facing Zeke in both of my leagues this week, which I'm not feeling decent about at all.
Now, in theory, if Robinson goes off the Raiders defense will struggle, and if Dak has a tough time against GB then Amari will too. Also, it's possible the Chiefs scoring wheel might not land on DeMarcus Robinson this week, and it's also possible that Josh Gordon doesn't do much because the Pats will have no need to pass against Washington.
It's possible that I should win if everything goes perfectly. I don't think it's likely, though.
THE PICK: AT 93 - TDHGNM 74
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (2-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-2)
Here's a thought. Meyers could be on his way to 1-4 and needs to clear out Le'Veon Bell in order to franchise McCaffrey before his 3/3 deal is up. The two teams most in position to pick up a franchise player right now are Tim (Kareem Hunt) and...Semi (Vikings DST).
Yes, I'm aware that Gary needs to clear out Devonta in order to franchise Kamara, but Devonta is useless any more.
If Semi wins this week and is right in the hunt in the worst division in the league, it might be time to make a move. And Russell Wilson gave him a great head start on getting that win. Problem is, the rest of this lineup is pretty suspect. Montgomery and Lindsay aren't doing much, Thomas is limited by Bridgewater, JuJu is limited by Rudolph, and Minshew Magic is bound to run into a down game eventually.
On the other hand, Gary has Matt Ryan, Kamara is equally limited by Bridgewater, and Brandin Cooks is limited by his game being over and him only having 6 points. I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be counting on Alshon and the Eagles DST to go off against the Jets, as bad as the Jets are.
Gary's lineup is going to be done for the week after the early games, and he's going to have to sweat out Lindsay and Brett Maher playing in the afternoon. I think he'll be fine. Big comeback win after the rough start on Thursday night.
THE PICK: RFD 97 - LBJ 90
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-2) vs. CHUBBY CHASERS (1-3)
Mike Barker is the lowest-scoring team in the league right now, which I feel has become a frequent occurrence in recent years. It certainly doesn't help that DeAndre Hopkins is only the 25th-best WR in the league, stuck between John Brown and Phillip Dorsett in the rankings.
(Odell is actually 27TH right now!)
But this is a good spot for him to ring up some points, move back above .500 and make his own in the worst division in the AFFL. Hopkins should finally explode against the Falcons at home, and Jordan Howard won't have another 3 TD game, but he is facing the Jets. Keith Butler will probably try to cover Mark Andrews with Stephon Tuitt or something, and the Jags can get at Kyle Allen.
The one concern is that Kyler and Fitz have a great matchup against Cincy, but the last team they came east for the early game, they only scored 10 points in Baltimore. I don't think that will happen here.
All of Barker's players will be done after the 1pm slot, while only two of Barker's players will be started by then. Thielen and the Bears should be decent to start, but the scoreboard is going to show something hilarious like 109 - 27 at 4pm.
Side note: It's going to be great when Minshew outscores Mayfield for a 4th straight week from the bench.
Second side note: Brian has both Darrel and Damien Williams, so he has 2 guys on his roster listed as D. WILLIAMS - RB - KC. How often do you think he has to click into their profiles to make sure he's starting the right one?
THE PICK: TNB 109 - CC 81
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (1-3) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-1)
It was highly amusing that I wasn't the only person assuming Tim was packing up the season once he hit 1-3, to the point that he had to issue a public proclamation to the league that he wasn't done yet. Great stuff.
Stefon Diggs might be benched for insolence, and if he does play and Cousins doesn't force feed against that terrible Giants secondary, it is over for him. Jammal Williams has to be ruled out this week after that massive head shot last Thursday, but the Packers will still find a way to screw up Aaron Jones' game. Sammy Watkins had 42 points in Week 1. He has 22.7 in Weeks 2-4.
Is T.Y. playing this week? Larry's in a bit of a quandary with him since he's playing Sunday night. If he waits to find out the news on the game time decision, there aren't a ton of guys available to pick up and spot start. And he probably does have to wait since his bench is banged up too.
Honestly, it probably won't even matter.
THE PICK: TWR 115 - SS 86
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-2) vs. WTTK? (3-1)
I reached out to Scott to discuss a trade as well, but he declined as well. I was a little miffed that he didn't even want to chat about, which is an interesting reaction, because I have absolutely no idea who I would want from his team. Wentz, I guess? I just get really restless with my lineup early in every season. None of you have ever pieced this together and tried to take advantage of it, so I am just telling you. Damn.
Scott is starting 2 TEs and a rookie WR in this game, but not the rookie WR he just signed to a franchise deal. His only hope in this game is Wentz, Ertz, and the Pats DST simply destroying inferior competition and covering up all the single digits his other players will post.
McCamey and Chris should figure out a Gordon/Ekeler deal so somebody can start both of them at the same time. If there's ever been a team and a year to start two backs from one team, this is it. (Yes, I am aware Chris already sent a 1st for Gordon in the summer.)
Imagine watching the Sunday night game and hoping LeSean McCoy can score 50 points so you have a chance to win.
THE PICK: WTTK 107 - TDHAF 67
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-3)
Take a guess as to whether Bri sent an agitated response to me declaring him to be out of it this year and on the decline in general.
I'll give you a moment.
He did.
He mentioned his overall point total and this and that and bunch of really defensive stuff. It's a very sensitive subject. And in fairness, he is going to absolute nuke a franchise that is actually on the decline. Meyers isn't even starting Le'Veon Bell this week (trade time?)
If it wasn't for Jacobs and Chris Thompson facing tough matchups, I might pick Bri to score 130 this week. I wouldn't hate to see Will Fuller get the start over Thompson, actually.
THE PICK: TKSMB 124 - AH 82
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
AFFL Week 4 Review
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 67.9 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 53.2
Heart. Guts. Determination. Moxie. Intestinal fortitude. This Dude heard all of the haterz out there saying they wouldn't win this week - that they wouldn't even score 70 points this week. They conceded the point about points but they didn't concede the win.
Will Dissly just came here to replace injured guys, score touchdowns, and chew bubble gum. And he's all outta bubble gum. 15 points from Dissly in a truly heroic effort, not to mention the genius effort by me to pick him up.
This game took me through all of the emotions. I had resigned myself to losing, then on Sunday it looked like I actually had a chance, then Dak didn't do nearly enough on Sunday night to pad the lead, then JuJu didn't do anything on Monday night and I won. Great!
The Vikings DST only scored 5 points with Chase Daniel as QB for Chicago. Marlon Mack got hurt. Hollywood Brown did nothing. Semi didn't quite leave the wrong guy on the bench to lose this game, but if he changed like 4 guys he could've won. A different kind of devastating, I guess.
I predicted that Semi wouldn't have a very good game (right), that I would score 67 points (REALLY right), and that I would lose (wrong).
By the way, the last 5 champs have all scored under 70 points at least once in their title season, so I still feel good about my chances. Interestingly, the first dud comes in the first 4 weeks.
Semi can give up, though.
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON 61 - THE NIGHT BOYS 52.7
Look at this fuckin' shit pile right here. Semi actually could've won this week if he'd faced Barker.
Gary listened to me about starting Moore over Devonta, which cost him 8 points. Not the win, though, so that's good. I would've had to send an apology letter on official team stationary if that had happened.
DeAndre Hopkins threw an INT in this game of all things, on a truly horrendous double pass play call from the 30. If you didn't see, DeShaun threw a backward pass to DeAndre, who tried to throw a pass all the way across the field to another receiver. Except with only 30 yards of field to cover, Carolina had guys everywhere. Truly idiotic from Bill O'Brien.
Barker went chasing Danny Dimes' point from last week and came up well short. Kyler had 4 more points on the bench and Rex Burkhead had 1.2 in the starting lineup. I don't think Burkhead has had a good game as a starter for Barker in the 3-4 years they've been together.
ASSTANNER 112.1 - CHUBBY CHASERS 93.8
This is the third straight week in which Gardner Minshew has been on the bench and outscored summer's consensus Hall of Fame QB, Baker Mayfield. It's the first week, however, in which Adam Thielen has criticized his team's playcalling, pointing out that it's 2019 and teams don't run 40 times to win any more. It's also the first week in which Keenan Allen had under 10 targets and under 10 points, and it's the first time Brian started MVS, which didn't quite work out.
It's not the first week he's lost, though. It's the third one, and it might time for him to start trading players for 2020 picks that he'll blow. If he's smart, he'll trade his guys for 3rd and 4th round picks because it doesn't hurt as much to blow those ones.
If you think I'm wrong about Wayne Gallman, offer Chris a pick for him tonight, because I promise you Chris is trying to move him. In other trade news, I ended up taking Mark Ingram with the 2nd round I got in exchange for Kenny Golladay, and I'm less and less sure about that one each week.
Must be nice to have Gallman and Golladay step up and carry the load when Zeke and Amari don't do much.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 107.6 - ANIMAL HOUSE 85.3
I feel like Meyers is good every year, he's actually just been scraping .500 this in this most recent olympiad. His last 4 seasons were 8-6, 8-6, 7-7, and 9-5. He had back-to-back 10 wins seasons in 2013 and 2014, so maybe we just all remember him being good from our youth.
Before that, he was 8-6, 6-8, 7-7, 5-9, 3-11, and 5-9.
Does Meyers secretly stink? Are we fooled because he always has a superstar running back? Is it just me?
Too bad he doesn't actually exist and never trades with anybody, because he could really sell off some pieces for 2020 picks.
Anyway, Aaron Rodgers was benched and outscored Tom Brady by 20 points. Jaylen Samuels and Ronald Jones were benched in favor of James Washington, who I'm not sure even saw the field last night. These were mistakes that cost Meyers the game. Just like real life, Christian McCaffrey is being wasted on a team that isn't going anywhere.
Jacoby Brissett actually outscored Pat Mahomes this week, not that it mattered.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 120.9 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 99.3
It's always amusing when Tim beats Scott, and Tim now leads their series 14-13. Scott's all time franchise record is 141-161; Tim's is 142-161. Scott average season finish is 6.5; Tim's is 6.8. These franchises are basically identical.
The silver lining for Scott is that he didn't lose this one because of lineup decisions. His bench was Tyler Eifert (3.7 points), 1 guy on bye, 3 hurt guys, and Trace McSorley for some reason. (That reason is not salary cap, because McSorley isn't the cheapest guy in the league and Scott has $1.55 of cap space now. I guess he wants his backup QB to be an actual backup for some reason.)
Also, if you're wondering, Terry McLaurin is his new franchise player.
Speaking of franchise players, if Scott had kept Fournette instead of AB, he would've won this game. Instead, Fournette scored 25 points for Tim in the big revenge game. Robert Woods scored 22.9 points without a TD thanks to THIRTEEN receptions (equal to a TD now), and Goff could've had a much better game except for his four turnovers. Goff lost more points than Adrian Peterson scored this week.
WTTK? 109.3 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 102.4
DeShaun Watson has been a little hot and cold this season.
Week 1 - 268 yds/3 TD - 28.9 pts
Week 2 - 159 yds/0 TD - 11.8 pts
Week 3 - 351 yds/3 TD - 24.5 pts
Week 4 - 160 yds/0 TD - 11.5 pts
Obviously he'll bounce back next week against Atlanta, but Bri needed him this week in a must-win game. I know many of you are taking joy in Bri having a bad season and having to dump Cam for nothing, but I think that is terrible. I feel bad for Bri. The rest of you of monsters for laughing about this. Shameful.
Bri has Sony Michel under contract but still started Chris Thompson over him. Thompson only had 8 points, which was still better than Michel, but it didn't matter either way.
McCamey also listened to my good advice and started Mixon over John Brown. That actually cost 1.1 points, but again, not the win. Him leaving Chris Godwin's 35 points on the bench was his own doing. Didn't matter this week, obviously, but maybe later for a tiebreaker or something?
Davante and Ekeler combined for 50 (23 / 26.7) points this week and I hope McCamey enjoyed it because they might combine for 9 (0 / 9) this week.
Heart. Guts. Determination. Moxie. Intestinal fortitude. This Dude heard all of the haterz out there saying they wouldn't win this week - that they wouldn't even score 70 points this week. They conceded the point about points but they didn't concede the win.
Will Dissly just came here to replace injured guys, score touchdowns, and chew bubble gum. And he's all outta bubble gum. 15 points from Dissly in a truly heroic effort, not to mention the genius effort by me to pick him up.
This game took me through all of the emotions. I had resigned myself to losing, then on Sunday it looked like I actually had a chance, then Dak didn't do nearly enough on Sunday night to pad the lead, then JuJu didn't do anything on Monday night and I won. Great!
The Vikings DST only scored 5 points with Chase Daniel as QB for Chicago. Marlon Mack got hurt. Hollywood Brown did nothing. Semi didn't quite leave the wrong guy on the bench to lose this game, but if he changed like 4 guys he could've won. A different kind of devastating, I guess.
I predicted that Semi wouldn't have a very good game (right), that I would score 67 points (REALLY right), and that I would lose (wrong).
By the way, the last 5 champs have all scored under 70 points at least once in their title season, so I still feel good about my chances. Interestingly, the first dud comes in the first 4 weeks.
Semi can give up, though.
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON 61 - THE NIGHT BOYS 52.7
Look at this fuckin' shit pile right here. Semi actually could've won this week if he'd faced Barker.
Gary listened to me about starting Moore over Devonta, which cost him 8 points. Not the win, though, so that's good. I would've had to send an apology letter on official team stationary if that had happened.
DeAndre Hopkins threw an INT in this game of all things, on a truly horrendous double pass play call from the 30. If you didn't see, DeShaun threw a backward pass to DeAndre, who tried to throw a pass all the way across the field to another receiver. Except with only 30 yards of field to cover, Carolina had guys everywhere. Truly idiotic from Bill O'Brien.
Barker went chasing Danny Dimes' point from last week and came up well short. Kyler had 4 more points on the bench and Rex Burkhead had 1.2 in the starting lineup. I don't think Burkhead has had a good game as a starter for Barker in the 3-4 years they've been together.
ASSTANNER 112.1 - CHUBBY CHASERS 93.8
This is the third straight week in which Gardner Minshew has been on the bench and outscored summer's consensus Hall of Fame QB, Baker Mayfield. It's the first week, however, in which Adam Thielen has criticized his team's playcalling, pointing out that it's 2019 and teams don't run 40 times to win any more. It's also the first week in which Keenan Allen had under 10 targets and under 10 points, and it's the first time Brian started MVS, which didn't quite work out.
It's not the first week he's lost, though. It's the third one, and it might time for him to start trading players for 2020 picks that he'll blow. If he's smart, he'll trade his guys for 3rd and 4th round picks because it doesn't hurt as much to blow those ones.
If you think I'm wrong about Wayne Gallman, offer Chris a pick for him tonight, because I promise you Chris is trying to move him. In other trade news, I ended up taking Mark Ingram with the 2nd round I got in exchange for Kenny Golladay, and I'm less and less sure about that one each week.
Must be nice to have Gallman and Golladay step up and carry the load when Zeke and Amari don't do much.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 107.6 - ANIMAL HOUSE 85.3
I feel like Meyers is good every year, he's actually just been scraping .500 this in this most recent olympiad. His last 4 seasons were 8-6, 8-6, 7-7, and 9-5. He had back-to-back 10 wins seasons in 2013 and 2014, so maybe we just all remember him being good from our youth.
Before that, he was 8-6, 6-8, 7-7, 5-9, 3-11, and 5-9.
Does Meyers secretly stink? Are we fooled because he always has a superstar running back? Is it just me?
Too bad he doesn't actually exist and never trades with anybody, because he could really sell off some pieces for 2020 picks.
Anyway, Aaron Rodgers was benched and outscored Tom Brady by 20 points. Jaylen Samuels and Ronald Jones were benched in favor of James Washington, who I'm not sure even saw the field last night. These were mistakes that cost Meyers the game. Just like real life, Christian McCaffrey is being wasted on a team that isn't going anywhere.
Jacoby Brissett actually outscored Pat Mahomes this week, not that it mattered.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 120.9 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 99.3
It's always amusing when Tim beats Scott, and Tim now leads their series 14-13. Scott's all time franchise record is 141-161; Tim's is 142-161. Scott average season finish is 6.5; Tim's is 6.8. These franchises are basically identical.
The silver lining for Scott is that he didn't lose this one because of lineup decisions. His bench was Tyler Eifert (3.7 points), 1 guy on bye, 3 hurt guys, and Trace McSorley for some reason. (That reason is not salary cap, because McSorley isn't the cheapest guy in the league and Scott has $1.55 of cap space now. I guess he wants his backup QB to be an actual backup for some reason.)
Also, if you're wondering, Terry McLaurin is his new franchise player.
Speaking of franchise players, if Scott had kept Fournette instead of AB, he would've won this game. Instead, Fournette scored 25 points for Tim in the big revenge game. Robert Woods scored 22.9 points without a TD thanks to THIRTEEN receptions (equal to a TD now), and Goff could've had a much better game except for his four turnovers. Goff lost more points than Adrian Peterson scored this week.
WTTK? 109.3 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 102.4
DeShaun Watson has been a little hot and cold this season.
Week 1 - 268 yds/3 TD - 28.9 pts
Week 2 - 159 yds/0 TD - 11.8 pts
Week 3 - 351 yds/3 TD - 24.5 pts
Week 4 - 160 yds/0 TD - 11.5 pts
Obviously he'll bounce back next week against Atlanta, but Bri needed him this week in a must-win game. I know many of you are taking joy in Bri having a bad season and having to dump Cam for nothing, but I think that is terrible. I feel bad for Bri. The rest of you of monsters for laughing about this. Shameful.
Bri has Sony Michel under contract but still started Chris Thompson over him. Thompson only had 8 points, which was still better than Michel, but it didn't matter either way.
McCamey also listened to my good advice and started Mixon over John Brown. That actually cost 1.1 points, but again, not the win. Him leaving Chris Godwin's 35 points on the bench was his own doing. Didn't matter this week, obviously, but maybe later for a tiebreaker or something?
Davante and Ekeler combined for 50 (23 / 26.7) points this week and I hope McCamey enjoyed it because they might combine for 9 (0 / 9) this week.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
AFFL Week 4 Preview
LAST WEEK: 0-6 (!)
(!!!)
(!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
SEASON: 3-9
This one is going to be a quick hitter because there's simply no time, man!
My great fear finally came true when Saquon went down with an injury. New York isn't New York without Saquon. I have lost a hero, I have lost a friend.
LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-1) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-1)
This loss is going to be especially disappointing because I don't think Semi is going to have a great week. I don't think I'm going to break 70, though.
THE PICK: LBJ 84 - TDHGNM 67
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-1) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (1-2)
If we're sticking with the movie theme, I guess this is the part in the saloon when Rick can't remember his lines and cries because he thinks it's all over.
Gary has FOUR players in the TEN/ATL barnburner this week. His entire starting lineup is only involved in four games.
I'd maybe consider D.J. Moore over Devonta this week, but either way, ol' Rick is bringing out his flamethrower this week.
THE PICK: RFD 118 - TNB 98
CHUBBY CHASERS (1-2) vs. ASSTANNER (2-1)
Chris and I were so, so close to pulling off a blockbuster trade this week but it just didn't come together. Brian Barker will be more ready to blow things up after this week.
Wayne Gallman sucks.
THE PICK: AT 94 - CC 81
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (2-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-2)
Did you know that Pat Mahomes has never played in a dome?
Meyers is starting James Washington this week, which...I thought I was desperate.
Larry will escape with a win because his bad performance will be less bad than Meyers' even worse performance.
THE PICK: TWR 87 - AH 80
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (0-3) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-1)
I think I've said this before, but I swear Scott leads the league in Franchise Players who retire or leave the league. His FP slot is the Spinal Tap drummer seat of the AFFL.
There are currently 4 teams under 300 points on the season. They are all in the Hockey Season division.
THE PICK: SS 83 - TDHAF 70
WTTK? (2-1) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-2)
I think my trade hex powers might be back because I reached out to McCamey this week about Ekeler and Davante. The price was still incredibly high but he was away this week so we put it on pause. Since then, Melvin Gordon has returned to take his job back from Ekeler and Davante broke his foot or whatever.
I would play Mixon over John Brown against NE this week, but that's just me.
THE PICK: W 103 - TKSMB 84
(!!!)
(!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
SEASON: 3-9
This one is going to be a quick hitter because there's simply no time, man!
My great fear finally came true when Saquon went down with an injury. New York isn't New York without Saquon. I have lost a hero, I have lost a friend.
LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-1) vs. THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-1)
This loss is going to be especially disappointing because I don't think Semi is going to have a great week. I don't think I'm going to break 70, though.
THE PICK: LBJ 84 - TDHGNM 67
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-1) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (1-2)
If we're sticking with the movie theme, I guess this is the part in the saloon when Rick can't remember his lines and cries because he thinks it's all over.
Gary has FOUR players in the TEN/ATL barnburner this week. His entire starting lineup is only involved in four games.
I'd maybe consider D.J. Moore over Devonta this week, but either way, ol' Rick is bringing out his flamethrower this week.
THE PICK: RFD 118 - TNB 98
CHUBBY CHASERS (1-2) vs. ASSTANNER (2-1)
Chris and I were so, so close to pulling off a blockbuster trade this week but it just didn't come together. Brian Barker will be more ready to blow things up after this week.
Wayne Gallman sucks.
THE PICK: AT 94 - CC 81
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (2-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-2)
Did you know that Pat Mahomes has never played in a dome?
Meyers is starting James Washington this week, which...I thought I was desperate.
Larry will escape with a win because his bad performance will be less bad than Meyers' even worse performance.
THE PICK: TWR 87 - AH 80
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (0-3) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-1)
I think I've said this before, but I swear Scott leads the league in Franchise Players who retire or leave the league. His FP slot is the Spinal Tap drummer seat of the AFFL.
There are currently 4 teams under 300 points on the season. They are all in the Hockey Season division.
THE PICK: SS 83 - TDHAF 70
WTTK? (2-1) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-2)
I think my trade hex powers might be back because I reached out to McCamey this week about Ekeler and Davante. The price was still incredibly high but he was away this week so we put it on pause. Since then, Melvin Gordon has returned to take his job back from Ekeler and Davante broke his foot or whatever.
I would play Mixon over John Brown against NE this week, but that's just me.
THE PICK: W 103 - TKSMB 84
Friday, September 20, 2019
AFFL Week 3 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 3-3
Looks like I shouldn't have sat out the preseason myself. Needed to get some pick reps in so I didn't start the season so flat.
Bri later revealed that he was joking about Cam for a 1st rounder the other day, which is believable. And yet! It had juuuust enough believability in it that I think he was hoping somebody went for it. Like in a movie when the hot girl is complaining that nobody wants to take her to prom and her nerdy best friend says he could take her and there's a pregnant pause and then she laughs and the nerd tries way too hard to cover it up with "Ha ha! Yeah, I'm totally kidding! Can you even imagine?!?"
Speaking of trades that won't ever happen, I can tell you Mark Ingram's fate already. I'm going to keep floating him on the trade block for (reasons) and nobody is going to make a good offer and then he's going to finish the season as a top 10 RB and be a top 5 draft pick in 2020. This exact scenario played out for me last year with Chris Carson. In fact, I think it happened the last time I had Mark Ingram 3-4 years ago.
So I dedicate this song to Mark Ingram. They just won't love you like I do.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-0) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (1-1)
I picked up the Titans DST for that? Good gravy. Hopefully the other ideal matchups that I have this week will go a little better. Dak and Ingram (love that guy!) will be a part of high-scoring matchups, and even though Tampa's run D might actually be good, Saquon does everything and now has a QB who doesn't move like he's wearing ski boots.
Actually...hmm. Maybe this isn't as good as I thought. Robinson will be open all night, but Mitch sucks. Odell will be busy trying to keep his expensive watch away from Aqib Talib's sticky fingers while Baker bails out from Aaron Donald on every snap, and Mostert is a pretty hopeful play. He basically needs to score a TD to come through. But putting in Goodwin or Samuel would be equally optimistic. Plus, Samuel will be dealing with a backup QB this week and I am simply not buying all of this talk that Kyle Allen will be useful this week. He didn't even play in the preseason. I know Cam has been bad, but where is this Allen hype coming from?
On the other side, the Baltimore D might slow down Mahomes a touch, which means he scores 22 points instead of 32. Evans has a golden opportunity against that Giants secondary, and DJ should get loose in the Cards' first win, though it might be asking a bit much for Kirk and T.Y. to keep it rolling.
HMM.
I know that I would LIKE to win this game. Starting off 3-0 through the first division cycle is always a good thing. But this one is going to be close throughout the Sunday slate and then we'll be watching Gurley vs. Odell Sunday night. I think Larry will come out of the Sabbath with slight advantage, but then I keep that Monday night magic rolling with Robinson in DC.
(Honestly, I am trying that Oprah trick where you speak something into being. I'm not sure how much I actually believe this one.)
THE PICK: THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 110 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 103
ANIMAL HOUSE (1-1) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (0-2)
As hilarious as it would be to see Gary start off 0-3 with the 2nd-most points in the league, it's not going to happen. On a technicality because he won't have the 2nd-most points after this week. Kamara is going to be kept down by Taysom Hill keeping the ball on every single read option and running straight into the pile, Devonta is absolutely cooked, and Gary was way too excited to pick up Brandin Cooks for him to do anything this week.
Side note: I am pretty sure Sean Payton knows more about football than me, but what is his fascination with Taysom Hill? He comes through on like 5% of the plays they try him on. I've seen him complete maybe 1 pass ever. Gary should be highly concerned about the possibility that Hill plays more than Bridgewater.
On the other hand, will Meyers be able to do anything about it even if Gary has a bad week? Brady should be done passing early again, Le'Veon Bell will be the entire Jets offense again (except the Pats will actually focus on stopping him), James Conner looks terrible so far and has a terrible set up this week, and Green Bay suddenly has a really good secondary that can slow down Manny Sanders.
Although...will this one come down to Sunday night with the Rams defense for Meyers going back and forth with Cooks for Gary? I'm gonna say...a late strip sack on Baker seals the deal in this one.
Also...I think CBS is being wildly ambitious with these score projections.
THE PICK: ANIMAL HOUSE 88.2 - RICK FUCKIN' DALTON 86.9
WTTK? (2-0) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-1)
The Brandin Cooks franchise era didn't last long. Barker has now franchised DeAndre Hopkins and not Daniel Jones in a bit of a surprise.
The CAR-Cards game on Sunday has a Kyle and a Kyler facing off at QB, which is a first. I like Kyler to have a good game in the first Cards win, which means Fitz should go along for the ride. The Chargers have a great secondary, but only the Jags really slow down DeAndre. On the other hand, Breida will lose too many snaps in a good matchup, Buffalo has a good defense to get after Boyd, and we said in the Week 2 Review that Barker would start Mark Andrews this week and he'd only score 4 after posting 22 on the bench last week.
Meanwhile, McCamey has nothing but gold up and down his lineup. Here's your top scorer this week, folks. I said Barker could lose 5 straight without some drastic action and this is where he loses his balance and starts tumbling down the hill.
If McCamey was asking for 1st and another pick for Ekeler before the season, I can't even imagine what he's asking for now. Probably your entire 2020 and 2021 drafts with a 2022 4th rounder thrown in as a sweetener.
THE PICK: WTTK? 122 - THE NIGHT BOYS 84
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-1) vs. CHUBBY CHASERS (0-2)
As hopeful as I am about starting off 3-0, I'm equally hopeful about Brian Barker actually doing something for a change this week and winning so the rest of my division starting off 1-2.
Even though I'm hopeful, I don't have much hope. I think Baker was absolutely exposed last week and he was seeing ghosts in the pocket on every play. Freddie Kitchens was equally exposed as a bad play caller and a bad game manager, and you shouldn't be surprised if this a second straight week in which GARDNER MINSHEW II outscores The Unfabulous Baker Boy. Thielen will be held down since Minnesota is passing less than a pre-war team, and I promise you that John Ross is not posting 100+ and a TD for a 3rd straight week.
He's benched this week due to injury, but Damien Williams is on his way to being the overhyped bust of draft season. In fairness, I very much wanted him as well, but man. We should've known it was over when the Chiefs grabbed Shady. We're going to look back in 2021 amazed that Williams went before Josh Jacobs and Chris Godwin. Shit, we can look back amazed right now. I'm currently doing it!
DeShaun should be fine against the Chargers unless he loses 3 ribs in a blindside hit, Dalvin is on his way to #1 RB this season, and Sony will be bleeding clock against the Jets all day.
For another week, both Brians will have to wait until bedtime to find out how goes their game, both Sunday and Monday nights. And while it's entirely possible the Bears defense will post 19 points against Case Keenum, I don't think Baker and Chubb will get it close enough to matter. Chubby Chasers stay chasin' that first dub, y'all.
THE PICK: THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 103 - CHUBBY CHASERS 89
ASSTANNER (2-0) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (1-1)
If McCamey isn't the #1 points team this week, Chris will be for a third straight week. Zeke might only play one half and still put up 18 points and with Gallup hurt, Amari is going to get a lot of looks early. Philly isn't stopping anybody through the air so Golladay should continue to roll, and there's an off chance the Patriots finally find even a sliver of conscience and bench AB after the latest revelations, which would help Josh Gordon tremendously. Why also hurting AB, of course. (Note: revelations as of 9/19/19 so we can keep track)
James White won't be on the field for too many 3rd down swing passes, AP has no chance against that Bears front, and while Terry McLaurin might be an actual good player, Keenum isn't going to have enough time to find him downfield.
I realize that I've picked Scott to score under 70 twice now and been wrong both times, and I promise I'm not doing a thing where I keep saying that until it actually happens so I'm right. I genuinely believe his team sucks huge balls.
THE PICK: ASSTANNER 119 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 67
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS (0-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-1)
Every year, there's a guy I try to trade for early on because I think I'm buying low. I always get turned down and by the end of the year it usually turns out that, no, the guy is actually bad now. It's one of my real blind spots, and thankfully you all save me from myself each time.
This year, that guy is Leonard Fournette. (And, honestly, it might also be Miles Sanders if some of these scouting reports about a lack of vision pan out) Obviously, Fournette saved his night with a single play at the end, but it's equally obvious that he's a bad, bad man. Not in the good bad, bad LeRoy Brown way, but in the he's-actually-bad-at-pro-football way.
Right after Aaron Jones had a good game last week, Coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to make sure Jones and Jamaal Williams have equal carries each week. That does not seem like a good idea to me. Coaches say a lot of things, of course, but that won't help Jones this week. Diggs has the same play calling issue as Thielen, and the Sammy Watkins hype machine will continue to settle down.
Marlon Mack is questionable this week, and if he misses the game, Semi will have a pretty tough choice on his hands between Miles Sanders, Phillip Lindsay, and Carlos Hyde. I might actually go 4 wide with D.K. Metcalf if it came down to it. Maybe Mack will be fine. Running backs barely use their calf muscles anyway.
Thomas and JuJu...so much hope after the draft, so little production this week. JuJu came to Ross Elementary on Tuesday and ended up signing Georgia's cast, which will probably be the best thing he does this week. Georgia described him as one inch taller than me, but wider with muscles. In case you needed to tell us apart in a crowd.
Last year, Brian Barker had 3 first round picks, then started out 1-2 on his way to a 3-11 season. Semi had 3 first round picks this year and is about to start out 1-2 as well. Hopefully he can at least finish 4-10 or something.
THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 87 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 81
SEASON: 3-3
Looks like I shouldn't have sat out the preseason myself. Needed to get some pick reps in so I didn't start the season so flat.
Bri later revealed that he was joking about Cam for a 1st rounder the other day, which is believable. And yet! It had juuuust enough believability in it that I think he was hoping somebody went for it. Like in a movie when the hot girl is complaining that nobody wants to take her to prom and her nerdy best friend says he could take her and there's a pregnant pause and then she laughs and the nerd tries way too hard to cover it up with "Ha ha! Yeah, I'm totally kidding! Can you even imagine?!?"
Speaking of trades that won't ever happen, I can tell you Mark Ingram's fate already. I'm going to keep floating him on the trade block for (reasons) and nobody is going to make a good offer and then he's going to finish the season as a top 10 RB and be a top 5 draft pick in 2020. This exact scenario played out for me last year with Chris Carson. In fact, I think it happened the last time I had Mark Ingram 3-4 years ago.
So I dedicate this song to Mark Ingram. They just won't love you like I do.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-0) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (1-1)
I picked up the Titans DST for that? Good gravy. Hopefully the other ideal matchups that I have this week will go a little better. Dak and Ingram (love that guy!) will be a part of high-scoring matchups, and even though Tampa's run D might actually be good, Saquon does everything and now has a QB who doesn't move like he's wearing ski boots.
Actually...hmm. Maybe this isn't as good as I thought. Robinson will be open all night, but Mitch sucks. Odell will be busy trying to keep his expensive watch away from Aqib Talib's sticky fingers while Baker bails out from Aaron Donald on every snap, and Mostert is a pretty hopeful play. He basically needs to score a TD to come through. But putting in Goodwin or Samuel would be equally optimistic. Plus, Samuel will be dealing with a backup QB this week and I am simply not buying all of this talk that Kyle Allen will be useful this week. He didn't even play in the preseason. I know Cam has been bad, but where is this Allen hype coming from?
On the other side, the Baltimore D might slow down Mahomes a touch, which means he scores 22 points instead of 32. Evans has a golden opportunity against that Giants secondary, and DJ should get loose in the Cards' first win, though it might be asking a bit much for Kirk and T.Y. to keep it rolling.
HMM.
I know that I would LIKE to win this game. Starting off 3-0 through the first division cycle is always a good thing. But this one is going to be close throughout the Sunday slate and then we'll be watching Gurley vs. Odell Sunday night. I think Larry will come out of the Sabbath with slight advantage, but then I keep that Monday night magic rolling with Robinson in DC.
(Honestly, I am trying that Oprah trick where you speak something into being. I'm not sure how much I actually believe this one.)
THE PICK: THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 110 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 103
ANIMAL HOUSE (1-1) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (0-2)
As hilarious as it would be to see Gary start off 0-3 with the 2nd-most points in the league, it's not going to happen. On a technicality because he won't have the 2nd-most points after this week. Kamara is going to be kept down by Taysom Hill keeping the ball on every single read option and running straight into the pile, Devonta is absolutely cooked, and Gary was way too excited to pick up Brandin Cooks for him to do anything this week.
Side note: I am pretty sure Sean Payton knows more about football than me, but what is his fascination with Taysom Hill? He comes through on like 5% of the plays they try him on. I've seen him complete maybe 1 pass ever. Gary should be highly concerned about the possibility that Hill plays more than Bridgewater.
On the other hand, will Meyers be able to do anything about it even if Gary has a bad week? Brady should be done passing early again, Le'Veon Bell will be the entire Jets offense again (except the Pats will actually focus on stopping him), James Conner looks terrible so far and has a terrible set up this week, and Green Bay suddenly has a really good secondary that can slow down Manny Sanders.
Although...will this one come down to Sunday night with the Rams defense for Meyers going back and forth with Cooks for Gary? I'm gonna say...a late strip sack on Baker seals the deal in this one.
Also...I think CBS is being wildly ambitious with these score projections.
THE PICK: ANIMAL HOUSE 88.2 - RICK FUCKIN' DALTON 86.9
WTTK? (2-0) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-1)
The Brandin Cooks franchise era didn't last long. Barker has now franchised DeAndre Hopkins and not Daniel Jones in a bit of a surprise.
The CAR-Cards game on Sunday has a Kyle and a Kyler facing off at QB, which is a first. I like Kyler to have a good game in the first Cards win, which means Fitz should go along for the ride. The Chargers have a great secondary, but only the Jags really slow down DeAndre. On the other hand, Breida will lose too many snaps in a good matchup, Buffalo has a good defense to get after Boyd, and we said in the Week 2 Review that Barker would start Mark Andrews this week and he'd only score 4 after posting 22 on the bench last week.
Meanwhile, McCamey has nothing but gold up and down his lineup. Here's your top scorer this week, folks. I said Barker could lose 5 straight without some drastic action and this is where he loses his balance and starts tumbling down the hill.
If McCamey was asking for 1st and another pick for Ekeler before the season, I can't even imagine what he's asking for now. Probably your entire 2020 and 2021 drafts with a 2022 4th rounder thrown in as a sweetener.
THE PICK: WTTK? 122 - THE NIGHT BOYS 84
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-1) vs. CHUBBY CHASERS (0-2)
As hopeful as I am about starting off 3-0, I'm equally hopeful about Brian Barker actually doing something for a change this week and winning so the rest of my division starting off 1-2.
Even though I'm hopeful, I don't have much hope. I think Baker was absolutely exposed last week and he was seeing ghosts in the pocket on every play. Freddie Kitchens was equally exposed as a bad play caller and a bad game manager, and you shouldn't be surprised if this a second straight week in which GARDNER MINSHEW II outscores The Unfabulous Baker Boy. Thielen will be held down since Minnesota is passing less than a pre-war team, and I promise you that John Ross is not posting 100+ and a TD for a 3rd straight week.
He's benched this week due to injury, but Damien Williams is on his way to being the overhyped bust of draft season. In fairness, I very much wanted him as well, but man. We should've known it was over when the Chiefs grabbed Shady. We're going to look back in 2021 amazed that Williams went before Josh Jacobs and Chris Godwin. Shit, we can look back amazed right now. I'm currently doing it!
DeShaun should be fine against the Chargers unless he loses 3 ribs in a blindside hit, Dalvin is on his way to #1 RB this season, and Sony will be bleeding clock against the Jets all day.
For another week, both Brians will have to wait until bedtime to find out how goes their game, both Sunday and Monday nights. And while it's entirely possible the Bears defense will post 19 points against Case Keenum, I don't think Baker and Chubb will get it close enough to matter. Chubby Chasers stay chasin' that first dub, y'all.
THE PICK: THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 103 - CHUBBY CHASERS 89
ASSTANNER (2-0) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (1-1)
If McCamey isn't the #1 points team this week, Chris will be for a third straight week. Zeke might only play one half and still put up 18 points and with Gallup hurt, Amari is going to get a lot of looks early. Philly isn't stopping anybody through the air so Golladay should continue to roll, and there's an off chance the Patriots finally find even a sliver of conscience and bench AB after the latest revelations, which would help Josh Gordon tremendously. Why also hurting AB, of course. (Note: revelations as of 9/19/19 so we can keep track)
James White won't be on the field for too many 3rd down swing passes, AP has no chance against that Bears front, and while Terry McLaurin might be an actual good player, Keenum isn't going to have enough time to find him downfield.
I realize that I've picked Scott to score under 70 twice now and been wrong both times, and I promise I'm not doing a thing where I keep saying that until it actually happens so I'm right. I genuinely believe his team sucks huge balls.
THE PICK: ASSTANNER 119 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 67
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS (0-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-1)
Every year, there's a guy I try to trade for early on because I think I'm buying low. I always get turned down and by the end of the year it usually turns out that, no, the guy is actually bad now. It's one of my real blind spots, and thankfully you all save me from myself each time.
This year, that guy is Leonard Fournette. (And, honestly, it might also be Miles Sanders if some of these scouting reports about a lack of vision pan out) Obviously, Fournette saved his night with a single play at the end, but it's equally obvious that he's a bad, bad man. Not in the good bad, bad LeRoy Brown way, but in the he's-actually-bad-at-pro-football way.
Right after Aaron Jones had a good game last week, Coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to make sure Jones and Jamaal Williams have equal carries each week. That does not seem like a good idea to me. Coaches say a lot of things, of course, but that won't help Jones this week. Diggs has the same play calling issue as Thielen, and the Sammy Watkins hype machine will continue to settle down.
Marlon Mack is questionable this week, and if he misses the game, Semi will have a pretty tough choice on his hands between Miles Sanders, Phillip Lindsay, and Carlos Hyde. I might actually go 4 wide with D.K. Metcalf if it came down to it. Maybe Mack will be fine. Running backs barely use their calf muscles anyway.
Thomas and JuJu...so much hope after the draft, so little production this week. JuJu came to Ross Elementary on Tuesday and ended up signing Georgia's cast, which will probably be the best thing he does this week. Georgia described him as one inch taller than me, but wider with muscles. In case you needed to tell us apart in a crowd.
Last year, Brian Barker had 3 first round picks, then started out 1-2 on his way to a 3-11 season. Semi had 3 first round picks this year and is about to start out 1-2 as well. Hopefully he can at least finish 4-10 or something.
THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 87 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 81
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
AFFL Week Review
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 113.5 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 110.1
Bri emailed me Monday morning to say he was nervous about MNF since everything else I had said about our matchup had already come true. I was far too dignified to point out that I said I'd be down 15 points after Sunday, not 33.
(We both knew that he really emailed to complain that I claimed he was stuck with Cam and that he hadn't been trying to trade him for years. I was far too dignified to point out that this wasn't true.)
Admittedly, I had given up hope of pulling off the comeback and was soothing my pain by reminding myself that the 3-team parlay I bet this week hit and that using the $250 that Rivers Casino matches for your first deposit for $100 parlays was pretty genius. (Incidentally, they also offer live betting during games online if you truly want to lose your mind.)
But then Odell was off and running on that slant and I had a very enjoyable final 15 minutes reading the defensive scoring rules and calculating how much damage every Luke Falk pass was doing.
With everybody focusing on the thrilling, riveting, shocking, exciting Monday night finish, a key moment from late Sunday is being overlooked. Cooper Kupp did his own Odell impression, taking a slant pass 70 yards to the house for a late TD that gave Bri an enormous lead. Except...upon review the refs declared that Kupp's knee was down when the ball was about 10 inches away from the goal line, so what was a 13.5 point TD catch became a 7.4 point reception. Those 10 inches cost Bri 6 points in a game he lost by 3.
Cooper Kupp got caught from behind because he's white.
Also, nice effort from Brian Barker to make my feel bad for not starting Raheem Mostert when it looked like I was lose. Now that I've won, all that's done is reminded me how happy I am to have a $0.43 running back who just put up 150 yards and a TD while getting the most snaps and touches of any back on an offense that looks electric this season.
Anyway, this makes up for last year when Bri beat me 114.7 - 112.7.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 104.9 - RICK FUCKIN DALTON 99.3
How did Gary lose this game after Julio scored that late TD? How does Scott have 200 points in 2 weeks? If I said I really wanted to pick Scott for the upset, why didn't I just go ahead and do it? How mad can Gary be about Alshon getting hurt and posting a 0 when Amendola also posted a 0 for Scott? Did Amendola also get hurt or is he just useless? How rough are the next 6 weeks going to be for Kamara with Brees out? How impressed are you that I said Scott's chances would be better if he benched AB for Terry McLaurin and McLaurin actually outscored AB this week? Does the Patriots scoring a (we assume) record 35 points points make up for however many times Scott lost last year because his defense scored -X? Will Gary remember losing a game because a defense scored 35 points against him forever?
Truly, a lot of questions in this one.
THE NIGHT BOYS 90.9 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS 86.7
Was there anything more obvious than Sammy Watkins posting single digits with Tim starting after that incredible Week 1? I can't remember exactly who it is, but I think the exact same thing happened to Tim last year with a different WR in Week 2. Actually...it might have been Sammy last season, too.
It didn't seem likely that Austin Siebert would score 16 points to mount a big comeback, but for a decent portion of MNF it at least seemed possible. Didn't happen, though.
I can at least see the logic is Tim starting Tyrell Williams this week since he's Oakland's de facto #1 WR, but if he had started Aaron Jones instead, a guy he has under contract and has turned down multiple trade offers for, he would've won this week.
Brandin Cooks had 2 TDs this week, and the 2nd one came from the 2-yard line when Goff ignore a called run play and whipped the ball to Cooks in between 2 defenders. The ball was about 2 inches from being tipped away, but Cooks held on with his 2 hands, giving Barker the win by 2 points. (Plus 2 additional points)
(Plus 2 more that Tim lost when Fournette was stopped on a 2-point conversion attempt)
Mark Andrews had 21 points on Barker's bench, so enjoy the 4 he scores in Week 3 when Barker starts him.
Barker is now 1-1 and, believe it or not, already has to make some tough decisions this week because he's at a fork in the road. On the plus side, he has great wide receivers and the most cap room to make some deals. On the minus side, he has no real running back, a QB who won't put big numbers this season, and an upcoming schedule that could legitimately deliver 5 straight losses. If he's going to try and compete this season, it's time to move. Otherwise, he can just close his eyes and let the waves take him under.
Wait, I take that whole paragraph back. Daniel Jones is starting this week.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 82.5 - CHUBBY CHASERS 81.3
Ooh, that Baker INT was a killer. Hey, you go all in on the Browns this season and Browns things will happen to you. While Brian was pointing out how I benched Mostert and lost points, he was hoping nobody would notice he would've won this game had he started GARDNER MINSHEW over Baker. Or if he had started John Ross, who he picked up in free agency this week for, uh, locker room presence, I guess.
Brian has a very angry Kangaroo coming to town next week and then Asstanner is waiting for him after that, so he could be 0-4 and out of the running before anybody puts on a sweater this year.
ASSTANNER 124.3 - ANIMAL HOUSE 101.1
I'm really not sure what to say about Chris' team at this point. About the only hope is that a team like this is always undone in the playoffs by either an injury or a fluke down week, but that's a long time for us to wait for something bad to happen. There will be a week this season when Golladay, Ridley, and Cooper all score like 6 points, but that'll probably be the week Lamar and Zeke combine for 60 and Chris' opponent only scores 52 so it doesn't matter.
I realize I'm doing that way where I write about my game up top and then peter out as I move through the list, but I'm really not too sure what else to say about this one. Meyers would've beaten most teams this week and moved to 2-0, but he ran into a buzzsaw.
It would be interesting, though, if he and The Night Boys started discussing a WR-RB trade that could greatly help out both teams.
WTTK? 89.7 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 58.3
Semi's bench outscored his starting lineup, a symbol of failure usually reserved for Tim. He also lost his QB to injury and his #2 overall WR pick lost that same QB and also his #1 overall WR pick lost his QB. And his first round rookie RB is being held down by his QB, a guy who Bears fans are actively hoping gets hurt.
That said, he didn't lose this game because Brees got hurt (he lost because his entire team was extremely terrible), and it there are plenty of good QBs available in free agency. It'll even open up some more cap room for him.
McCamey did a great job of taking my advice and started Brown over Mixon. That was the right move, not that it actually mattered. He also started 2 TEs which is just really insulting to an opponent. Just some true disrepect for your opponent's abilities.
Bill is now 2-0 and the only division leader under 200 points. The hockey division is already 150 cumulative points behind the Norris and 200 behind the Jules. It's going to be an absolute bloodbath once inter-division play opens up. There are 7 teams with sub-.500 records in the Breakdown and 4 of them are in this division. Gross.
Bri emailed me Monday morning to say he was nervous about MNF since everything else I had said about our matchup had already come true. I was far too dignified to point out that I said I'd be down 15 points after Sunday, not 33.
(We both knew that he really emailed to complain that I claimed he was stuck with Cam and that he hadn't been trying to trade him for years. I was far too dignified to point out that this wasn't true.)
Admittedly, I had given up hope of pulling off the comeback and was soothing my pain by reminding myself that the 3-team parlay I bet this week hit and that using the $250 that Rivers Casino matches for your first deposit for $100 parlays was pretty genius. (Incidentally, they also offer live betting during games online if you truly want to lose your mind.)
But then Odell was off and running on that slant and I had a very enjoyable final 15 minutes reading the defensive scoring rules and calculating how much damage every Luke Falk pass was doing.
With everybody focusing on the thrilling, riveting, shocking, exciting Monday night finish, a key moment from late Sunday is being overlooked. Cooper Kupp did his own Odell impression, taking a slant pass 70 yards to the house for a late TD that gave Bri an enormous lead. Except...upon review the refs declared that Kupp's knee was down when the ball was about 10 inches away from the goal line, so what was a 13.5 point TD catch became a 7.4 point reception. Those 10 inches cost Bri 6 points in a game he lost by 3.
Cooper Kupp got caught from behind because he's white.
Also, nice effort from Brian Barker to make my feel bad for not starting Raheem Mostert when it looked like I was lose. Now that I've won, all that's done is reminded me how happy I am to have a $0.43 running back who just put up 150 yards and a TD while getting the most snaps and touches of any back on an offense that looks electric this season.
Anyway, this makes up for last year when Bri beat me 114.7 - 112.7.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 104.9 - RICK FUCKIN DALTON 99.3
How did Gary lose this game after Julio scored that late TD? How does Scott have 200 points in 2 weeks? If I said I really wanted to pick Scott for the upset, why didn't I just go ahead and do it? How mad can Gary be about Alshon getting hurt and posting a 0 when Amendola also posted a 0 for Scott? Did Amendola also get hurt or is he just useless? How rough are the next 6 weeks going to be for Kamara with Brees out? How impressed are you that I said Scott's chances would be better if he benched AB for Terry McLaurin and McLaurin actually outscored AB this week? Does the Patriots scoring a (we assume) record 35 points points make up for however many times Scott lost last year because his defense scored -X? Will Gary remember losing a game because a defense scored 35 points against him forever?
Truly, a lot of questions in this one.
THE NIGHT BOYS 90.9 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS 86.7
Was there anything more obvious than Sammy Watkins posting single digits with Tim starting after that incredible Week 1? I can't remember exactly who it is, but I think the exact same thing happened to Tim last year with a different WR in Week 2. Actually...it might have been Sammy last season, too.
It didn't seem likely that Austin Siebert would score 16 points to mount a big comeback, but for a decent portion of MNF it at least seemed possible. Didn't happen, though.
I can at least see the logic is Tim starting Tyrell Williams this week since he's Oakland's de facto #1 WR, but if he had started Aaron Jones instead, a guy he has under contract and has turned down multiple trade offers for, he would've won this week.
Brandin Cooks had 2 TDs this week, and the 2nd one came from the 2-yard line when Goff ignore a called run play and whipped the ball to Cooks in between 2 defenders. The ball was about 2 inches from being tipped away, but Cooks held on with his 2 hands, giving Barker the win by 2 points. (Plus 2 additional points)
(Plus 2 more that Tim lost when Fournette was stopped on a 2-point conversion attempt)
Mark Andrews had 21 points on Barker's bench, so enjoy the 4 he scores in Week 3 when Barker starts him.
Barker is now 1-1 and, believe it or not, already has to make some tough decisions this week because he's at a fork in the road. On the plus side, he has great wide receivers and the most cap room to make some deals. On the minus side, he has no real running back, a QB who won't put big numbers this season, and an upcoming schedule that could legitimately deliver 5 straight losses. If he's going to try and compete this season, it's time to move. Otherwise, he can just close his eyes and let the waves take him under.
Wait, I take that whole paragraph back. Daniel Jones is starting this week.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 82.5 - CHUBBY CHASERS 81.3
Ooh, that Baker INT was a killer. Hey, you go all in on the Browns this season and Browns things will happen to you. While Brian was pointing out how I benched Mostert and lost points, he was hoping nobody would notice he would've won this game had he started GARDNER MINSHEW over Baker. Or if he had started John Ross, who he picked up in free agency this week for, uh, locker room presence, I guess.
Brian has a very angry Kangaroo coming to town next week and then Asstanner is waiting for him after that, so he could be 0-4 and out of the running before anybody puts on a sweater this year.
ASSTANNER 124.3 - ANIMAL HOUSE 101.1
I'm really not sure what to say about Chris' team at this point. About the only hope is that a team like this is always undone in the playoffs by either an injury or a fluke down week, but that's a long time for us to wait for something bad to happen. There will be a week this season when Golladay, Ridley, and Cooper all score like 6 points, but that'll probably be the week Lamar and Zeke combine for 60 and Chris' opponent only scores 52 so it doesn't matter.
I realize I'm doing that way where I write about my game up top and then peter out as I move through the list, but I'm really not too sure what else to say about this one. Meyers would've beaten most teams this week and moved to 2-0, but he ran into a buzzsaw.
It would be interesting, though, if he and The Night Boys started discussing a WR-RB trade that could greatly help out both teams.
WTTK? 89.7 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 58.3
Semi's bench outscored his starting lineup, a symbol of failure usually reserved for Tim. He also lost his QB to injury and his #2 overall WR pick lost that same QB and also his #1 overall WR pick lost his QB. And his first round rookie RB is being held down by his QB, a guy who Bears fans are actively hoping gets hurt.
That said, he didn't lose this game because Brees got hurt (he lost because his entire team was extremely terrible), and it there are plenty of good QBs available in free agency. It'll even open up some more cap room for him.
McCamey did a great job of taking my advice and started Brown over Mixon. That was the right move, not that it actually mattered. He also started 2 TEs which is just really insulting to an opponent. Just some true disrepect for your opponent's abilities.
Bill is now 2-0 and the only division leader under 200 points. The hockey division is already 150 cumulative points behind the Norris and 200 behind the Jules. It's going to be an absolute bloodbath once inter-division play opens up. There are 7 teams with sub-.500 records in the Breakdown and 4 of them are in this division. Gross.
Friday, September 13, 2019
AFFL Week 2 Preview
LAST WEEK: 6-0 (Trust me)
SEASON: 6-0
Gary doesn't want me to talk about the league, he does want me to talk about the league, he doesn't want me to talk about the league...this guy's all over the place!
I really did want to skip the previews this year and reduce the pot from a rolling boil to a smooth simmer, but like a guy cutting back on the beer until he goes to a tailgate...fuck it. Here we go.
Maybe if all listen to some chill music everything will be a lot calmer.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-0) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-0)
Here is my experience with the Niners backfield over the last 2 season. Really wanted McKinnon last year, didn't get him, grabbed Breida in the draft in case McKinnon got hurt. Dropped Breida as my last cut the day before McKinnon tore his ACL, didn't get him back. Picked up Raheem Mostert after Breida got hurt, got half a good game out of him before he broke his arm on MNF.
Drafted Tevin Coleman in the 2nd round this year, got half a good game out of him before he got a high ankle sprain, dropped him for Mostert. I hope to get another good half game from Mostert at some point when Breida gets his annual injury.
It's been a fun ride.
Speaking of personnel moves, the window for Bri to trade Cam for anything more than a 10th round pick slammed shut so hard last night that the glass shattered. After trying to trade Cam for 3-4 years, he might be flat out cut this season so Bri can franchise DeShaun and extend Sony Michel to a 2/3 contract. Easing the sting of that mess is that he completely ripped off Larry in the Gurley/Cook deal. I'm never a fan of trading great players just to free up a contract slot, and Bri took advantage of Larry's 2009 AFFL thinking to ship out Gurley's arthritic knee, get a better back (when he actually plays), and make room for Josh Jacobs.
As for this week, I reluctantly started Curtis Samuel in place of Tyreek Hill last night and got just enough to be satisfied. Even though he left 50-60 yards and a TD out there thanks to Cam. But that's probably just a warm up for the 90 yards Allen Robinson will leave on the field Sunday thanks to Mitchy Trubo. But Dak, Ingram, and Saquon should more than make up for it.
DeShaun can't be stopped, but Jacksonville can slow him a bit. I have him in my other league and I did not enjoy the three different times I thought he was knocked out of the game last week. Jacobs wil be taken out of the offense by KC being up 24-6 at halftime, Michel will score early but then the Pats will put the 6th string in against the Dolphins, and the Packers defense might be good against the run. That said, Kelce will go wild against a barren Raiders secondary.
Last week, Bri woke up Tuesday morning to find out he had completed a furious Monday night comeback thanks to Josh Jacobs and the Saints D. This week, he's going to head into Monday night with a 15-point lead, only to watch Odell Beckham, the former Kangaroo rookie star, lead a comeback for the Dude, with a Browns strip sack of Trevor Siemian just being a fun addition.
THE PICK: THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 103 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 94
RICK FUCKIN DALTON (0-1) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (0-1)
Gary got mad at me this week for making fun of his patented Put A Guy On The Trading Block Right Before Cutting Him move, as if I ruined his chances of getting a 1st for Corey Davis and two 1st for Derrius Guice, one pick for each career knee injury. I guess he doesn't realize the entire league is on to this move. Personally, I love it. I think it's hilarious. But nobody takes it seriously. We all know what you're up to, dudeski! The work he puts in to trade Devonta Freeman for 3 picks right before the roster freeze so he can franchise Kamara will be his best work yet.
It's genuinely hard to decide which Albert has the most ridiculous player in this matchup. Is it Gary with Ryquell Armstead? Or Scott with Matt LaCosse? I mean, seriously.
I truly, truly would love to pick Scott for the upset here, but Gary starting off 0-2 after scoring 115 in Week 1 and like 77 in Week 2 would be incredibly funny, but I just don't see a way that it happens. Maybe if Scott benches Antonio Brown for Terry McLaurin, but even then it would be tough.
I am not making jokes about the Antonio Brown situation.
Oh! I alluded to a Guice/Henry story in the comments last week. Short version is that Gary emailed me at like 1:04pm Sunday to note that he spent all morning trying to figure out his lineup, decided he would start Guice over Henry, then forgot to actually do it and was upset that he forgot. I really don't know how one forgets to do something they are actively engaged in, but Guice got hurt and Henry caught a a screen pass he ran for a 75-yard TD, so...happy accident, I guess.
THE PICK: RICK FUCKIN DALTON 93 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 67
THE NIGHT BOYS (0-1) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (0-1)
Only 3 teams didn't crack 100 points in a rollicking Week 1, and here are 2 of them. Kyler is really going to struggle on the road in Baltimore, and if he reaches even 10 points, it'll be a pleasant surprise. Cincy got gouged by Chris Carson last week, so maybe Breida will do something good this week, and all 4 wideouts have good matchups this week.
On the other hand, Tim might have even better matchups this week. These 4 games when Sammy Watkins is healthy to start this season are gonna be sick. There's an interesting threesome afoot between Goff and Woods on Tim's side and Cooks on Barker's, and that could go a long way toward determining who comes out on top here.
Serious question: when was the last Tim had the most points in a week? I think it could happen here. Even with Peyton Barber's 15 points safe and secure on the bench.
After he loses this game and falls to 0-2, Barker should figure out how to take advantage of that $1 in cap space he has and make some trades with teams that are right up against the limit. Melvin Gordon is currently costing Chris $1.77 to not play.
THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 119 - THE NIGHT BOYS 102
CHUBBY CHASERS (0-1) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (0-1)
Mike Evans didn't do nearly enough last night, David Johnson is on the road in the early game (never good for West Coast teams) against a great defense, Todd Gurley is still limited, and DeDe Westbrook's quarterback is Gardner Minshew.
When Baker and Chubb finish off the job in the first half Monday night, Larry will have lost 2 straight weeks thanks to MNF. Not the most rousing title defense I've ever seen.
ASSTANNER (1-0) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-0)
McCaffrey didn't get the ball enough last night, Bell is already dinged up, Brady might not play the entire second half, and Manny Sanders needs to get the ball from Joe Flacco, which is never good. Meyers did score 120 points last week, but he might have a lot of 30-40 point swings from game to game this season.
Man, even Chris Carson is $1.31? The only thing that can slow Chris down this season would be some injuries, and even then it will take more than one to clear out the depth. Although he might just have to eat the $10 in penalties when he starts Zane Gonzalez and the Raiders on their bye weeks.
THE PICK: ASSTANNER 115 - ANIMAL HOUSE 82
LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-0) vs. WTTK? (1-0)
It sounds like Melvin Gordon is planning to hold out for a while, then come back just in time to qualify 2019 as a played season on his contract. So I'm not too sure where that leaves McCamey with Austin Ekeler. I guess he can just play him until Gordon is back and hope that he built up enough wins to just ride it out. I'm sure Chris would be happy to trade Gordon back to free up some space, but I think that's illegal now with the rental player rule.
McCamey already benched Chris Godwin and is benching John Brown so he can play Kerryon Johnson and Joe Mixon, one of whom is hurt and the other is a Lion. I maybe would take it in a different direction, especially with Brown playing the terrible Giants secondary. I'd maybe even play Brown over Davante, since Minnesota has been locking up him and Rodgers lately.
Brees is outdoors against a good defense, which isn't good for him or for Thomas. Montgomery is being limited by his coach and QB right now, and a good Broncos defense this week won't help. Really, McCamey can leave all the points he wants on his bench this week.
THE PICK: WTTK 94 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 76
SEASON: 6-0
Gary doesn't want me to talk about the league, he does want me to talk about the league, he doesn't want me to talk about the league...this guy's all over the place!
I really did want to skip the previews this year and reduce the pot from a rolling boil to a smooth simmer, but like a guy cutting back on the beer until he goes to a tailgate...fuck it. Here we go.
Maybe if all listen to some chill music everything will be a lot calmer.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-0) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-0)
Here is my experience with the Niners backfield over the last 2 season. Really wanted McKinnon last year, didn't get him, grabbed Breida in the draft in case McKinnon got hurt. Dropped Breida as my last cut the day before McKinnon tore his ACL, didn't get him back. Picked up Raheem Mostert after Breida got hurt, got half a good game out of him before he broke his arm on MNF.
Drafted Tevin Coleman in the 2nd round this year, got half a good game out of him before he got a high ankle sprain, dropped him for Mostert. I hope to get another good half game from Mostert at some point when Breida gets his annual injury.
It's been a fun ride.
Speaking of personnel moves, the window for Bri to trade Cam for anything more than a 10th round pick slammed shut so hard last night that the glass shattered. After trying to trade Cam for 3-4 years, he might be flat out cut this season so Bri can franchise DeShaun and extend Sony Michel to a 2/3 contract. Easing the sting of that mess is that he completely ripped off Larry in the Gurley/Cook deal. I'm never a fan of trading great players just to free up a contract slot, and Bri took advantage of Larry's 2009 AFFL thinking to ship out Gurley's arthritic knee, get a better back (when he actually plays), and make room for Josh Jacobs.
As for this week, I reluctantly started Curtis Samuel in place of Tyreek Hill last night and got just enough to be satisfied. Even though he left 50-60 yards and a TD out there thanks to Cam. But that's probably just a warm up for the 90 yards Allen Robinson will leave on the field Sunday thanks to Mitchy Trubo. But Dak, Ingram, and Saquon should more than make up for it.
DeShaun can't be stopped, but Jacksonville can slow him a bit. I have him in my other league and I did not enjoy the three different times I thought he was knocked out of the game last week. Jacobs wil be taken out of the offense by KC being up 24-6 at halftime, Michel will score early but then the Pats will put the 6th string in against the Dolphins, and the Packers defense might be good against the run. That said, Kelce will go wild against a barren Raiders secondary.
Last week, Bri woke up Tuesday morning to find out he had completed a furious Monday night comeback thanks to Josh Jacobs and the Saints D. This week, he's going to head into Monday night with a 15-point lead, only to watch Odell Beckham, the former Kangaroo rookie star, lead a comeback for the Dude, with a Browns strip sack of Trevor Siemian just being a fun addition.
THE PICK: THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 103 - THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 94
RICK FUCKIN DALTON (0-1) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (0-1)
Gary got mad at me this week for making fun of his patented Put A Guy On The Trading Block Right Before Cutting Him move, as if I ruined his chances of getting a 1st for Corey Davis and two 1st for Derrius Guice, one pick for each career knee injury. I guess he doesn't realize the entire league is on to this move. Personally, I love it. I think it's hilarious. But nobody takes it seriously. We all know what you're up to, dudeski! The work he puts in to trade Devonta Freeman for 3 picks right before the roster freeze so he can franchise Kamara will be his best work yet.
It's genuinely hard to decide which Albert has the most ridiculous player in this matchup. Is it Gary with Ryquell Armstead? Or Scott with Matt LaCosse? I mean, seriously.
I truly, truly would love to pick Scott for the upset here, but Gary starting off 0-2 after scoring 115 in Week 1 and like 77 in Week 2 would be incredibly funny, but I just don't see a way that it happens. Maybe if Scott benches Antonio Brown for Terry McLaurin, but even then it would be tough.
I am not making jokes about the Antonio Brown situation.
Oh! I alluded to a Guice/Henry story in the comments last week. Short version is that Gary emailed me at like 1:04pm Sunday to note that he spent all morning trying to figure out his lineup, decided he would start Guice over Henry, then forgot to actually do it and was upset that he forgot. I really don't know how one forgets to do something they are actively engaged in, but Guice got hurt and Henry caught a a screen pass he ran for a 75-yard TD, so...happy accident, I guess.
THE PICK: RICK FUCKIN DALTON 93 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 67
THE NIGHT BOYS (0-1) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (0-1)
Only 3 teams didn't crack 100 points in a rollicking Week 1, and here are 2 of them. Kyler is really going to struggle on the road in Baltimore, and if he reaches even 10 points, it'll be a pleasant surprise. Cincy got gouged by Chris Carson last week, so maybe Breida will do something good this week, and all 4 wideouts have good matchups this week.
On the other hand, Tim might have even better matchups this week. These 4 games when Sammy Watkins is healthy to start this season are gonna be sick. There's an interesting threesome afoot between Goff and Woods on Tim's side and Cooks on Barker's, and that could go a long way toward determining who comes out on top here.
Serious question: when was the last Tim had the most points in a week? I think it could happen here. Even with Peyton Barber's 15 points safe and secure on the bench.
After he loses this game and falls to 0-2, Barker should figure out how to take advantage of that $1 in cap space he has and make some trades with teams that are right up against the limit. Melvin Gordon is currently costing Chris $1.77 to not play.
THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 119 - THE NIGHT BOYS 102
CHUBBY CHASERS (0-1) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (0-1)
Mike Evans didn't do nearly enough last night, David Johnson is on the road in the early game (never good for West Coast teams) against a great defense, Todd Gurley is still limited, and DeDe Westbrook's quarterback is Gardner Minshew.
When Baker and Chubb finish off the job in the first half Monday night, Larry will have lost 2 straight weeks thanks to MNF. Not the most rousing title defense I've ever seen.
ASSTANNER (1-0) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (1-0)
McCaffrey didn't get the ball enough last night, Bell is already dinged up, Brady might not play the entire second half, and Manny Sanders needs to get the ball from Joe Flacco, which is never good. Meyers did score 120 points last week, but he might have a lot of 30-40 point swings from game to game this season.
Man, even Chris Carson is $1.31? The only thing that can slow Chris down this season would be some injuries, and even then it will take more than one to clear out the depth. Although he might just have to eat the $10 in penalties when he starts Zane Gonzalez and the Raiders on their bye weeks.
THE PICK: ASSTANNER 115 - ANIMAL HOUSE 82
LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-0) vs. WTTK? (1-0)
It sounds like Melvin Gordon is planning to hold out for a while, then come back just in time to qualify 2019 as a played season on his contract. So I'm not too sure where that leaves McCamey with Austin Ekeler. I guess he can just play him until Gordon is back and hope that he built up enough wins to just ride it out. I'm sure Chris would be happy to trade Gordon back to free up some space, but I think that's illegal now with the rental player rule.
McCamey already benched Chris Godwin and is benching John Brown so he can play Kerryon Johnson and Joe Mixon, one of whom is hurt and the other is a Lion. I maybe would take it in a different direction, especially with Brown playing the terrible Giants secondary. I'd maybe even play Brown over Davante, since Minnesota has been locking up him and Rodgers lately.
Brees is outdoors against a good defense, which isn't good for him or for Thomas. Montgomery is being limited by his coach and QB right now, and a good Broncos defense this week won't help. Really, McCamey can leave all the points he wants on his bench this week.
THE PICK: WTTK 94 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 76
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