SEASON: 15-15
The next 3 weeks are going to be pretty interesting heading into the freeze. No team is truly out of it, although Tim, Meyers, and the Brians will be if they drop 2 more games. Even Brian Williams, #1 team in the Power Rankings but maybe #6-7 in your heart, will have the holidays off if he loses 2 more.
But how much player for picks movement are we going to see in the next 4 weeks? Picks are totally devalued now, and here is the list of players that could be a high 2020 draft pick based on current contracts:
- Le'Veon Bell
- Amari Cooper (I'm assuming Chris will cut one of the Gordons and extend Amari, though maybe not since that would give him a $2.50+ price tag next year)
- Kenny Golladay (or as Joe Tessitore says, Galladay)
- Chris Carson
- Lamar Jackson
- Michael Thomas / JuJu (Why didn't Semi give these guys contracts right after the draft?)
- Aaron Jones (unless Tim franchises him)
- Chris Godwin (McCamey HAS to sign him up to a deal, right?)
- Mike Evans
- Todd Gurley (no idea what team he'll be on or if he'll have 2 knees)
- Dalvin Cook (next year's #1 pick)
- Odell / Tyreek
- Mark Ingram
- Tevin Coleman
- A buncha rookie running backs
In other words, the same first round nobody was excited about this year. Honestly, I think at this point if you're trending towards being out of the playoffs, you sign anybody and everybody that you think could be useful next year, cut whatever bad contracts are in their way, and keep your own picks to try and be better next year.
Also...I really cannot believe Michael Thomas and Godwin don't have contracts already. That is insane.
Speaking of guys nobody wants, I dedicate this week's song to Mark Ingram and Odell Beckham. Don't let them tell your place is in the middle and they hate when you shine. The joke's on them.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-3) vs THE NIGHT BOYS (3-3)
Just to be clear, it's obvious that I do not see player value the same as everybody else in the league, and that's okay. We all have the same information at this point and some people are going to interpret it in different ways. But for the life of me, I cannot figure out how Mark Ingram gets drafted in the 2nd round in 2019, has a top-15 RB season, and LOSES a round in value. Scott does have a valid point that Ingram's total is skewed with a 33-point game, but how many guys can actually put up a 33-point game?
I guess it's just me, which is fine, since I mostly want to trade out of boredom.
Elsewhere, I truly cannot believe I waited weeks to have Saquon and Tyreek back together and now I may not be able to start Tyreek for another month. At least he got one last night.
But either way, Saquon is back, and if Devonta Freeman could score 24 against the Cardinals defense, how many is Saquon going to put up? 40? Kyle Shanahan loves Tevin Coleman and hates Dan Snyder, so he's going to look to pile up the points, and Mark Ingram doesn't do anything but score touchdowns. One concern is needing to bench Allen Robinson against Marshon Lattimore, who is shutting down everybody he faces. That leaves me hoping that AJ Brown can get lucky on a couple from Ryan Tannehill, which is an all or nothing play. But Amari, Randall Cobb, and Tyron Smith are all expected to play now, so Dak will light up the Eagles.
DeAndre is bound to break out at some point, but I hope it's next week. Gore should score and run clock against Miami, but the rest of this lineup is a bunch of 11-point guys.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 122 - TNB 86
RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (3-3) vs CHUBBY CHASERS (2-4)
Brian cannot possibly start the wrong QB this week because Jameis is on a bye. He CANNOT mess this up. Plus, Josh Allen is facing the lowly Dolphins, which will really help. And the Bears defense is facing a Saints team with no Brees AND no Kamara.
I really want to like the Chubbers big this week, but there are a lot of question marks here. Breida is secondary to Coleman right now, Keenan hasn't done anything in a month because the Chargers' o-line is made out of sand, and Detroit's defense should be able to take away either Thielen or Diggs. Engram should be nice against the Cardinals, though.
On the other hand, is Gary seriously going to win without Kamara? The Rams defense hasn't been the same this year and Atlanta is home this week, but it's asking a lot for Ryan, Freeman, and Julio to win a game for him two weeks in a row. Jags D against Cincy is nice, but it'll only balance out the Bears.
Hmm. This is interesting. Brian was ready to throw in the towel on the season just last week, but a win here puts him right back in it with Chubb coming off a bye next week. He could be .500 before you know it. Whereas Gary plays the other Bri next week, meaning he could be 3-5 and facing some tough decisions.
I mean, how can this not be a Chubby week when they got 11.6 points from Courtland Sutton in a game in which it looked like the Broncos were giving up? Chasers roll this week.
THE PICK: CC 93 - RFD 79
ASSTANNER (5-1) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-3)
There is nothing you can offer Chris to pry Lamar Jackson away. Believe me, I tried. Actually, there's another guy who should be signed to a contract. If Chris waits much longer, he's going to cost $2.40 next season. It's worth cutting Calvin Ridley to make room for Lamar.
This game features both quarterbacks from the BAL/SEA game (neat!), and Semi with both backs from the IND/HOU game (yuck!) This is going to be a pretty low scoring game outside of the two quarterbacks. Zeke is Zeke, but the Eagles can stop the run and they can't stop the pass, and even Jason Garrett shouldn't be able to screw up that game plan. Melvin Gordon suddenly isn't good any more, and the Vikings D can slow down Golladay and the Lions.
Michael Thomas is the only guys the Bears have to worry about, so he'll be held down. DJ Chark is surprisingly awesome, but these first outdoor, windy, cold games never go well for southern teams.
That basically leaves Chris Carson to be the difference in this one.
THE PICK: AT 81 - LBJ 76
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-3) vs THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-2)
I guess I need to root for Scott for divisional purposes. Now I'll know what he goes through every week. It's hard to believe he's won at all this season, but since he's 6th in PF and 7th in PA, I guess a 3-3 record makes sense. That PA is only going to get better this week with Mahomes only putting up 6 before he got hurt, and Gurley in danger of not playing at all (if Gurley is out, I am ABSOLUTELY putting in Darrell Henderson).
T.Y. and Henry should be nice, though, and the Bills D can do some damage against the Dolphins.
Wentz should be passing a lot trying to keep up with Dallas, but the Pats won't need to pass much against the Jets, so forget about James White. Terry McLaurin is great (and McLaurin F1 is an amazing nickname), but the Niners defense is going to destroy Washington. That leaves Scott with 2 TEs, a kicker who might be cut after 2 weeks, and a Patriots D that is finally facing a good QB on the road in prime time.
Scott is heading toward his worst score of the season.
THE PICK: TWR 84 - TDHAF 65
ANIMAL HOUSE (2-4) vs WTTK? (4-2)
One team that definitely won't be trading their players away for picks is Animal House. And in this matchup, a game he must win against the 10th-highest scoring team in the league, he was forced to start 2 Broncos receivers because his bench consists of 1 QB and 5 guys on bye. And Edelman, in his starting lineup, is no sure thing to play.
If there was ever a time for a trade to save a season, along with one owner signaling that he was so desperate to make a trade that he could be ripped off, this was it. But...nothing. Just gonna sit there and take it.
(Meyers, if you're reading this, there's still time! I can still be had!)
McCamey is starting Minshew over Rivers if you're still wondering about the power of television to influence society. I know Rivers and the Chargers looked terrible in front of a national audience last week, but Minshew looked terrible in private last week. Only 3.5 points.
McCamey is benching franchise player Joe Mixon in favor of Austin Ekeler, who's now a glorified swing back until the Chargers give up on Gordon.
Speaking of trade opportunities, I'm aware that the Odell contract is...cumbersome. But damn, I just watched like 4 teams start the year with around $.04 in cap space and turn out just fine. Dropping the cap penalty for cutting a guy has completely changed the math. McCamey has $1.50 in cap space, a #1 WR with a bad toe, a franchise back he doesn't even play any more, tons of contract space in 2020, and a (soon to be) 5-2 record that he lucked in to thanks to a combination of the fewest PA and being in the worst division. If there was ever a time to make a big, bold splash move, it's now!
I've reached out to him and all but said please rip me off, but...nothing. I've seen more courage from Mitt Romney.
THE PICK: WTTK 98 - AH 69
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (2-4) vs SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER
Bri has absolutely blown away my skewed Power Rankings / Record ratio from last year. This is truly something to behold. Although, curiously, only the 2nd-most PA so far. Meyers has faced 25 more points from opponents to date.
Wait, Tim started Noah Fant this week? Even with all of the guys he has on bye, he didn't want to drop his backup kicker or franchise player who isn't returning until Week 10 and won't take the job from Nick Chubb anyway for somebody better than Noah Fant? Do I have that right?
Wow.
I mean, it's not like Bri got a ton out of Kelce last night, but he still did a lot more than Noah Fant.
Noah Fant? More like...no a fan of that move, am I right?!?
Jared Goff has been completely and utterly exposed, but so has the Falcons D, so maybe he can do something this week.
Speaking of, everybody jumps on "offensive gurus" who struggle with bad QBs like Adam Gase or Brian Billick or Jay Gruden or whomever, but Dan Quinn won a Super Bowl as the Seattle D coordinator and hasn't had a good defense in Atlanta in like 6 years. How is this any different? It's almost like...really good players make coaches look really good.
Although Randy Fichtner's next job is going to be at like Utah State or some shit.
Anyway, whether Goff targets Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods more will have a huge effect on this matchup. And did you know that Will Fuller dropped 3 more TDs last week? That's what the game recaps say, at least! If he can catch at least one against the Colts this week, that will really help out Bri a lot.
This matchup is a lot more interesting than it might seem at first glance. Both QBs have good matchups, though there's more chance of the Colts getting after Watson than the Falcons touching Goff. Fournette - who's quietly put up huge points this season - has a great matchup against the Bungles, but all of the other backs face decent to good defenses. Detroit might take Diggs away, but Fuller might take himself away.
As hilarious as it would be to see Bri fall to 2-5 after losing to Tim...as much as I am really, really hoping for it...I just can't see it.
THE PICK: TKSMB 101 - SS 90
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