AFFL Week 3 Preview

LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 3-3

Looks like I shouldn't have sat out the preseason myself. Needed to get some pick reps in so I didn't start the season so flat.

Bri later revealed that he was joking about Cam for a 1st rounder the other day, which is believable. And yet! It had juuuust enough believability in it that I think he was hoping somebody went for it. Like in a movie when the hot girl is complaining that nobody wants to take her to prom and her nerdy best friend says he could take her and there's a pregnant pause and then she laughs and the nerd tries way too hard to cover it up with "Ha ha! Yeah, I'm totally kidding! Can you even imagine?!?"

Speaking of trades that won't ever happen, I can tell you Mark Ingram's fate already. I'm going to keep floating him on the trade block for (reasons) and nobody is going to make a good offer and then he's going to finish the season as a top 10 RB and be a top 5 draft pick in 2020. This exact scenario played out for me last year with Chris Carson. In fact, I think it happened the last time I had Mark Ingram 3-4 years ago.

So I dedicate this song to Mark Ingram. They just won't love you like I do.




THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-0) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (1-1)
I picked up the Titans DST for that? Good gravy. Hopefully the other ideal matchups that I have this week will go a little better. Dak and Ingram (love that guy!) will be a part of high-scoring matchups, and even though Tampa's run D might actually be good, Saquon does everything and now has a QB who doesn't move like he's wearing ski boots.

Actually...hmm. Maybe this isn't as good as I thought. Robinson will be open all night, but Mitch sucks. Odell will be busy trying to keep his expensive watch away from Aqib Talib's sticky fingers while Baker bails out from Aaron Donald on every snap, and Mostert is a pretty hopeful play. He basically needs to score a TD to come through. But putting in Goodwin or Samuel would be equally optimistic. Plus, Samuel will be dealing with a backup QB this week and I am simply not buying all of this talk that Kyle Allen will be useful this week. He didn't even play in the preseason. I know Cam has been bad, but where is this Allen hype coming from?

On the other side, the Baltimore D might slow down Mahomes a touch, which means he scores 22 points instead of 32. Evans has a golden opportunity against that Giants secondary, and DJ should get loose in the Cards' first win, though it might be asking a bit much for Kirk and T.Y. to keep it rolling.

HMM.

I know that I would LIKE to win this game. Starting off 3-0 through the first division cycle is always a good thing. But this one is going to be close throughout the Sunday slate and then we'll be watching Gurley vs. Odell Sunday night. I think Larry will come out of the Sabbath with slight advantage, but then I keep that Monday night magic rolling with Robinson in DC.

(Honestly, I am trying that Oprah trick where you speak something into being. I'm not sure how much I actually believe this one.)

THE PICK: THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 110 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 103


ANIMAL HOUSE (1-1) vs. RICK FUCKIN' DALTON (0-2)
As hilarious as it would be to see Gary start off 0-3 with the 2nd-most points in the league, it's not going to happen. On a technicality because he won't have the 2nd-most points after this week. Kamara is going to be kept down by Taysom Hill keeping the ball on every single read option and running straight into the pile, Devonta is absolutely cooked, and Gary was way too excited to pick up Brandin Cooks for him to do anything this week.

Side note: I am pretty sure Sean Payton knows more about football than me, but what is his fascination with Taysom Hill? He comes through on like 5% of the plays they try him on. I've seen him complete maybe 1 pass ever. Gary should be highly concerned about the possibility that Hill plays more than Bridgewater.

On the other hand, will Meyers be able to do anything about it even if Gary has a bad week? Brady should be done passing early again, Le'Veon Bell will be the entire Jets offense again (except the Pats will actually focus on stopping him), James Conner looks terrible so far and has a terrible set up this week, and Green Bay suddenly has a really good secondary that can slow down Manny Sanders.

Although...will this one come down to Sunday night with the Rams defense for Meyers going back  and forth with Cooks for Gary? I'm gonna say...a late strip sack on Baker seals the deal in this one.

Also...I think CBS is being wildly ambitious with these score projections.

THE PICK: ANIMAL HOUSE 88.2 - RICK FUCKIN' DALTON 86.9


WTTK? (2-0) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (1-1)
The Brandin Cooks franchise era didn't last long. Barker has now franchised DeAndre Hopkins and not Daniel Jones in a bit of a surprise.

The CAR-Cards game on Sunday has a Kyle and a Kyler facing off at QB, which is a first. I like Kyler to have a good game in the first Cards win, which means Fitz should go along for the ride. The Chargers have a great secondary, but only the Jags really slow down DeAndre. On the other hand, Breida will lose too many snaps in a good matchup, Buffalo has a good defense to get after Boyd, and we said in the Week 2 Review that Barker would start Mark Andrews this week and he'd only score 4 after posting 22 on the bench last week.

Meanwhile, McCamey has nothing but gold up and down his lineup. Here's your top scorer this week, folks. I said Barker could lose 5 straight without some drastic action and this is where he loses his balance and starts tumbling down the hill.

If McCamey was asking for 1st and another pick for Ekeler before the season, I can't even imagine what he's asking for now. Probably your entire 2020 and 2021 drafts with a 2022 4th rounder thrown in as a sweetener.

THE PICK: WTTK? 122 - THE NIGHT BOYS 84


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (1-1) vs. CHUBBY CHASERS (0-2)
As hopeful as I am about starting off 3-0, I'm equally hopeful about Brian Barker actually doing something for a change this week and winning so the rest of my division starting off 1-2.

Even though I'm hopeful, I don't have much hope. I think Baker was absolutely exposed last week and he was seeing ghosts in the pocket on every play. Freddie Kitchens was equally exposed as a bad play caller and a bad game manager, and you shouldn't be surprised if this a second straight week in which GARDNER MINSHEW II outscores The Unfabulous Baker Boy. Thielen will be held down since Minnesota is passing less than a pre-war team, and I promise you that John Ross is not posting 100+ and a TD for a 3rd straight week.

He's benched this week due to injury, but Damien Williams is on his way to being the overhyped bust of draft season. In fairness, I very much wanted him as well, but man. We should've known it was over when the Chiefs grabbed Shady. We're going to look back in 2021 amazed that Williams went before Josh Jacobs and Chris Godwin. Shit, we can look back amazed right now. I'm currently doing it!

DeShaun should be fine against the Chargers unless he loses 3 ribs in a blindside hit, Dalvin is on his way to #1 RB this season, and Sony will be bleeding clock against the Jets all day.

For another week, both Brians will have to wait until bedtime to find out how goes their game, both Sunday and Monday nights. And while it's entirely possible the Bears defense will post 19 points against Case Keenum, I don't think Baker and Chubb will get it close enough to matter. Chubby Chasers stay chasin' that first dub, y'all.

THE PICK: THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 103 - CHUBBY CHASERS 89


ASSTANNER (2-0) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (1-1)
If McCamey isn't the #1 points team this week, Chris will be for a third straight week. Zeke might only play one half and still put up 18 points and with Gallup hurt, Amari is going to get a lot of looks early. Philly isn't stopping anybody through the air so Golladay should continue to roll, and there's an off chance the Patriots finally find even a sliver of conscience and bench AB after the latest revelations, which would help Josh Gordon tremendously. Why also hurting AB, of course. (Note: revelations as of 9/19/19 so we can keep track)

James White won't be on the field for too many 3rd down swing passes, AP has no chance against that Bears front, and while Terry McLaurin might be an actual good player, Keenum isn't going to have enough time to find him downfield.

I realize that I've picked Scott to score under 70 twice now and been wrong both times, and I promise I'm not doing a thing where I keep saying that until it actually happens so I'm right. I genuinely believe his team sucks huge balls.

THE PICK: ASSTANNER 119 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 67


SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTERS (0-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-1)
Every year, there's a guy I try to trade for early on because I think I'm buying low. I always get turned down and by the end of the year it usually turns out that, no, the guy is actually bad now. It's one of my real blind spots, and thankfully you all save me from myself each time.

This year, that guy is Leonard Fournette. (And, honestly, it might also be Miles Sanders if some of these scouting reports about a lack of vision pan out) Obviously, Fournette saved his night with a single play at the end, but it's equally obvious that he's a bad, bad man. Not in the good bad, bad LeRoy Brown way, but in the he's-actually-bad-at-pro-football way.

Right after Aaron Jones had a good game last week, Coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to make sure Jones and Jamaal Williams have equal carries each week. That does not seem like a good idea to me. Coaches say a lot of things, of course, but that won't help Jones this week. Diggs has the same play calling issue as Thielen, and the Sammy Watkins hype machine will continue to settle down.

Marlon Mack is questionable this week, and if he misses the game, Semi will have a pretty tough choice on his hands between Miles Sanders, Phillip Lindsay, and Carlos Hyde. I might actually go 4 wide with D.K. Metcalf if it came down to it. Maybe Mack will be fine. Running backs barely use their calf muscles anyway.

Thomas and JuJu...so much hope after the draft, so little production this week. JuJu came to Ross Elementary on Tuesday and ended up signing Georgia's cast, which will probably be the best thing he does this week. Georgia described him as one inch taller than me, but wider with muscles. In case you needed to tell us apart in a crowd.

Last year, Brian Barker had 3 first round picks, then started out 1-2 on his way to a 3-11 season. Semi had 3 first round picks this year and is about to start out 1-2 as well. Hopefully he can at least finish 4-10 or something.

THE PICK: SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 87 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 81