When I look at that incredible picks record above, I realize it's yet another thing about me that you all don't appreciate enough. That's a long list, but great picks is the one I'm thinking about right now.
Anyway, I thought it might be fun if I created a a simple Google doc and we could all pick each game each week and find out who's smart around here, but I only filled in about four cells before I realized that, at best, Gary would try it all season long, Brian Barker would quit after 3 weeks when he started off 8-10, Scott would try to change his picks Tuesday morning to look like he went 6-0, forcing me to toggle his edit privileges all season long, and the rest of you crumb bums would just ignore it.
Again, this was the BEST CASE SCENARIO I envisioned. I do all I can to keep this league spicy, but you're all just so boring. So lame. You're all just...
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER vs THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY
Ah, Week 1. The last time all season Tim has a .500 record. Really, there's a good chance that Tim starts off 0-3 in what's become a rough and tumble Dead Drop division. I'd say the sell off will be on by October for Tim, but he won't move Hunt and outside of Diggs, who else would people even want? Did you realize that Jordan Howard's contract price makes him the 3rd-most expensive player in the league? His contract price is $0.62 more than Todd Gurley's free agent price! I think he'll bounce back this year, but $2.59...that's a lotta dimp.
Howard does have a nice matchup this week against an atrocious Packers defense, and Hunt and Diggs should score a bunch as well, but that's really about it. I like Jimmy GQ as much as anybody else this year, but going into Minnesota is not a great way to start off. Maybe if Baltimore can get a pick 6 against The Peter Man.
It's going to be very, very exciting to have Barkley and Beckham this season and next, especially because the Giants will play like 9 Sunday night games during that time, but facing Jacksonville in Week 1 will be a tough go. The Sacksonville Smashuars! THE ONLY DEFENSE GOOD ENOUGH TO BE FRANCHISED IN THE AFFL!
Not that it matters much, since Brees will light up Tampa at home, Alex Collins will get into the end zone at least once against Buffalo, and Royce Freeman will plow through what's left of the once good Seattle defense. My only real concern, as usual, will be trying to manage my incredible depth. Do I start Anderson or Golladay in the last spot because they play Monday night and it'll be fun to watch them run up the score? Do I put in John Brown and hope he gets deep once? Crowder, who will chip away with 10 catches for 100 yards? So many choices!
THE PICK: TDHGNM 99 - SS 80
HEISENBERG vs WTTK?
I remember when Coleman and Freeman were in camp after being drafted and the talk was that Coleman was the more dynamic back and likely to be the next starter with Freeman working in from time to time. Then Coleman got hurt and missed his whole rookie year, giving Freeman the starting job the following year. Freeman put up two great seasons, but last year he dipped down with Coleman working in more and more. Last night, it seemed like the Falcons realized it's Coleman's time. Look at him. He's the captain now.
What I'm saying is, Gary needs to trade Freeman ASAFP to open up the franchise spot for Kamara. Problem is, only 3 or 4 teams would want to take Freeman in the FP spot. Sure, Gary can extend Kamara to 2/3 and put off the problem for one more year, but Freeman's value drops with every Coleman carry from here on out.
There's a Freeman/Rivers/____ for Rodgers/_____ deal out there somewhere that makes sense, but I doubt Gary and Semi can stumble across it with the number of 1st round picks they'll both demand.
Speaking of Rivers and Kamara, they should both go off this week against terrible defenses. Kamara is in the even better position of being the clock-killing back with Ingram out, so 20+ points are entirely possible for him. Hyde, Tucker, and the Saints defense have nice matchups as well. On the downside, Doug Baldwin has claimed his knee won't be better than 80% all season and he's going into Denver against Chris Harris.
McCamey most has good matchups, though I'd like to see how Luck stands up against Cincy's front four, and how many carries Henry actually gets for the Titans. Also, having the Packers DST on purpose in Week 1 seems like an odd choice. But Hogan, Davante, Mixon, and Gordon should all get into double digits. Gordon could push 20 points himself.
Gary's favorite thing about the head-to-head matchups, as he's mentioned several times before, is games coming down to the wire on Sunday or Monday night when everybody's watching. So imagine how much fun he's going to have watching the Packers DST score go up and down, putting him in the lead, taking the lead away, until a 2nd half Davante Adams TD seals the deal.
THE PICK: WTTK? 103 - HB 98
LITTLE BABY JESUS v ASSTANNER
Credit to Chris for his absolute vision, sprinting to pick up Dez Bryant before anybody else in the AFFL did. Heck, before anybody else in the NFL did. Any time you have a chance to get a WR who's in the top 30 in AFFL salary without being top 30 in NFL stats, you've GOT to do it. And when he's not even on a roster? Just that much sweeter.
But the crazy part is, I'm not yet entirely ready to rule out Chris in this matchup. Even with Julio's 18 points already on the board. Goff should get some against the Raiders (Side note: I am SO EXCITED for the Jon Gruden era. Every single quote and action I've seen so far teases an incredible, incredible disaster coming.), Zeke should get plenty against Carolina, and Thielen should be good against the Niners, although he needs to get in the end zone this year. On the other hand, Chris is also playing Isaiah Crowell, who isn't technically the Jets' starter, in a game they should be trailing early and often. He's also hoping Dede Westbrook lives up to the sleeper hype right away, and he has Bill Maher at kicker when I didn't know he played sports. It's a little bit top heavy.
While Semi had to be excited about Julio being able to catch as many quick hooks and crosses as he wants, eventually you'd like to see a TD as well, which is not something that Matt Ryan or Steve Sarkisian seem to be able to conjure up. I'm not a professional football man, but it seemed odd to me last night that the Falcons would sprint down the field with pass after pass to Julio, and then take him out as soon as they crossed the 20. I might have done things differently myself.
I'd also be concerned by Matt Ryan floating bubbles out there. The time to trade Julio is now, while his value is at its peak, is what I'm saying. Somebody will be able to take that 3-year contract off your hands. Make it their problem, Semi, not yours.
The Bears defense is great, but Rodgers still tears them up, especially at home. I have high hopes for Allen Robinson this year, but I'd like to see him actually do something before I put him in the starting lineup. Semi doesn't have the luxurious receiver depth that I do, though, so he really has no choice. Peyton Barber is nice, but how many times is Tampa going to run the ball in the second half this week? Once? A lot of Jacquizz Rodgers on the field when they're down 27-10. What Semi really needs is Tyreek to get deep once on a really good Chargers defense.
This one is also going to come down to Monday, with Chris running Crowell and Goff out there. It's just too bad that nobody will still be awake to see Chris' non-comeback.
THE PICK: LBJ 74 - AT 66
RUSSELLMANIA v THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL
I'm not sure if sitting Jay Ajayi for the first part of the game and hoping he scores 2 late TDs is a viable long-term strategy, but take what you can get I suppose. And hey, anything Ajayi provided this week was a fun bonus since B. Williams traded Ajayi to B. Barker on draft night. He handed over the very club with which Barker just beat him about the face, neck, chest, breast, and head. And he was hurt VERY badly.
Although, even with the 10-point head start, it might not matter. Russell won't be doing much of anything this week, partially because he's going into Denver with no weapons, partially because, according to this article, his whole team hates him. Amari won't do anything against the Rams, and Keenan and Gronk won't be able to carry the whole thing themselves.
Oh, did I forget somebody? Listen, Shady is going to go down as the worst pick of the 2018 draft. Historically, that pick's going to be up there with Andre Ellington 3rd instead of AB (LBJ, 2014), Bishop Sankey 6th and Toby Gerheart 9th over anybody else on Earth (Gary, 2014), or Terrelle Pryor 5th (RM, 2017). I wouldn't even play Shady this week against Baltimore. I'd play literally any other bench player except Ronald Jones over him.
While I'm making canny roster decisions, B. Williams should bench TY Hilton outside, on the road, matched up against William Jackson, in favor of Golden Tate against a non-existent Jets secondary. He won't, though, mostly because I suggested it and he's too prideful. After I suggested the brilliant insightful Rodgers + WR for Cam + RB trade in the season preview, Bri emailed me to say "That is a really, really, really smart idea, but I won't do it because it was your idea," in so many words. I mean, that was basically the subtext, reading between the lines and all.
Anyway, Watson, Miller, and Gurley will do more than enough to get the win here.
THE PICK: TKSMB 94 - RM 81
THE NIGHT BOYS v ANIMAL HOUSE
It just feels like if you're starting two TEs in Week 1, you're getting off on the wrong foot. Really not too sure what else to say here except Deandre Hopkins is going to feel awfully lonely being the only double-digit scorer week after week.
Meyers gets to cash in his Le'Veon Bell insurance policy in Week 1, and Conner should do just fine against the Cleve Brownies. But let's take a look at how Mrs. Meyers is handling the news:
Tonight at 5 and 6, we give you a breakdown of the Le'Veon Bell holdout: Why this is happening, the latest we could see Bell return and sports will have the reaction from inside the locker room.— David Kaplan (@DKaplanWTAE) September 5, 2018
Here's a taste of how one Pittsburgher, Debbie Cromlish, feels. pic.twitter.com/KwG6qlebFA
Expect AJ to get deep on the Colts once or twice, McCaffrey should have at least 100 combined yards, and it's possible Michael Thomas actually outscores AJ like 19-17 or something. This one is going to be ugly.
THE PICK: AH 101 - TNB 54
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS
This is projected to be the closest matchup of the week, and it's the only that will be wrapped up by dinner time on Sunday. Now...I wrote the other previews earlier today and then took a super fun soccer practice and dinner break, and between now and then, weather reports of 100% chance of rain and 20mph winds have cropped up and I'm not sure if I want to overreact a lot or a little.
If it's a lot, then Ben and AB are really going to have some trouble, and Landry will probably be benched in favor of Marvin Jones. And if that's where we're going, then Scott might not break 50.
Regardless of weather, Scott shouldn't expect much from AP or Wilkins, but Fournette should continue being nice.
Larry is throwing Mahomes and Cook right into the mix right off the bat, and actually...Drake too. This whole matchup outside of AB and Johnson is a bunch of prove it guys. I guess Evans will be okay with Fitzpatrick since the Bucs will be passing all game? Geez, this whole thing stinks.
THE PICK: TWR 73 - TDHAF 62
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