Friday, November 17, 2017

AFFL Week 11 Preview

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 45-16

45 and 16! I am positive that you all do not appreciate how impressive that is. It's the only thing I've done right this year.

Actually, I've also done an excellent job of delivering terrific music and video content this season and it stills irks me that Gary is just categorically closed off to any new experiences. Who wants to live like that? To get Gary to finally understand what he's been missing out on all season, allow me to present a brand new song that is one of the greatest things I've ever heard.




Amazing. Neal McCoy has really given me a lot of think about.

But hey, music is subjective. I get that. But who would go out of their way to not have chuckles at the end of the week? Who would not enjoy watching some Scottish guys yell at their friend because he got hit by a bus?





FOOK OFF, ALI!

I could laugh at that 10 times in a row. And look at me! I love life! Maybe Gary wouldn't be so tense all the time if he rocked some more chuckles.

Anyway, there's a lot to cover this week and very little of it is actually about the games, so find a comfortable chair.

Oh wait. First, remember a couple of weeks ago when I wasted my time trying to turn you guys onto black Twitter and said Anthony Adams was a good starting point? Guess who is getting a new TV show? Correct, former Nittany Lion Anthony Adams.

Seriously, Larry will tell you. I am always head of the curve. I can keep you guys cool as your bodies start to break down. But I can only reach my hand out halfway.


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-7) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (3-7)
Hey, I know I'm not very good, but Barker is starting Bort Blakles against me? AND two tight ends? Is this to win a bet? Or is this a lottery tank? Brother, if you think you can out tank me...actually. Shoot, I think I'm going to win this game. I don't want to win games! I might need to make some "strategic" lineup decisions.

THE PICK: TNB 54 - TDHGNM 50


THE NATIONAL RAZOR (6-4) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-6)
Sticking with pettiness for a second, I forgot the guy who shot up a Colorado Wal-Mart when I was winning the slaughter battle 2-1. Now with this maniac in Northern California this week, it's actually 4-1 domestic violence white guys over ISIS in the past 6 weeks. I'm running away with this argument!

PS, thanks to a quick-thinking teacher and lockdown drills, by like one minute we avoided having like 45 kids slaughtered at their school. It barely made the news.

But yeah, ISIS. Oooooooooh! ISIS GONNA GETCHA! The only time ISIS threatened you guys is when I was the #1 team in the league two straight years.

While we're talking about Gary's bad takes, what the hell is the deal with O.J. Howard this season? Gary drafted "the next Gronk," cut him twice before the season even had a crust on it, signed him to a 2-year deal in Week 8 and then cut him again before the freeze. Occasionally I wonder if Gary knows what he's doing.

Also, I somehow missed Luck being cut (maybe didn't scroll down in the email), but Devonta Freeman is rewarding Gary for his new franchise spot by missing this week's game with a concussion.

Speaking of weird decisions, Semi put Chris Carson on IR early this year and cut Jordy Nelson at the freeze, but he didn't give Carson a contract. Will Fuller and Corey Davis got contracts instead. Semi will head into 2018 with an All-Pro(tential) WR corps between Fuller, Davis, and Tyreek. If you're curious how locking up a bunch of young, potentially great receivers goes, just ask me.

I really want Gary to miss the playoffs this year so I end up with 2 lottery picks, so I'll pick him to lose this game.

THE PICK: LBJ 68 - TNR 64


WTTK? (4-6) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (8-2)
McCamey heads into 2018 with Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon, two young guys who are supposed to be great but haven't been great enough to take the starting jobs. He also has Larry's first two picks, which will be fun to watch.

Tim made an early decision to sign Jordan Howard, didn't move Kelvin Benjamin so he loses DeAndre Hopkins this summer, and he kept Jared Goff, all of which prevented him from signing Mark Ingram during a career year. Sure, this late in the year, extending Ingram would've jacked up his price to something crazy like $1.92. Which, uh, is what he's currently paying for Jordan Howard.

But this is the Year Of Tim, so I am not going to question it.

I tell you what, though. If McCamey gets somebody in the starting lineup to replace Bilal Powell's bye, Monday night's Richardson vs. Coleman matchup is going to be a lot more interesting than you might expect.

THE PICK: SS 78 - WTTK 72


RUSSELLMANIA (6-4) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (3-7)
Brian signed Josh Gordon to a a 3-year what the hell contract, which is exactly what I was thinking about doing myself. I just got tired of ending up with bust contracts on my balance sheet. 

Also, look at Brian's roster sheet. Look at how many players he ran through! Usually it's only Chris who touches 20+ players a year. This year, only Meyers and Brian Williams avoided going through players like they were chips, and that's because Bri runs both of those teams. Anecdotal to be sure, but more evidence that this was a weird year. Everybody changing their minds on who they wanted every week.

THE PICK: RM 75 - TWR 60


ASSTANNER (7-3) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (5-5)
I'm great at picking games each week, but even you dum dums can figure this one out. Which is fine, because this matchup provides a lot of tangential subjects.

First, I enjoyed Madden view for last night's game, but having the mic close enough to hear an o-lineman yell out "Got 'em!" when the Titans jumped offside before the first TD was outstanding. Any sports league could increase viewership 1000% with full, uncensored field-level audio. I also enjoyed how clearly that view showed that Demarco Murray has terrible vision. God, he sucks. And he just never goes away.

Second, I loved that ESPN article today about Jerry Jones going after Gooddell, and then I loved it even more when video of Jones denigrating black people somehow magically leaked this afternoon. Amazing how that happens sometimes. I still think Roger Gooddell is a genuinely dumb guy, unable to anticipate or understand contrarian thoughts, but somebody at least taught him revenge.

As for roster talk, Scott gave Zach Ertz a contract and did a good job moving guys around so he could keep Fournette. But then he signed Dez for 2 years after giving up a 2nd rounder for him, which I'll call...debatable.

Chris gave Thielen a 2-yr deal after our trade. Since I am open and honest, early in the season, I was between Martavis, Thielen, and Hyde as far who would get my 2-yr deals. I did not choose wisely. None of my last four 2-yr contracts - Ware, Chris Michael, Martavis, Hyde -  will see their contracts through to the final day.

Then again, Mike Barker cut 4 different 2-yr deals just this year, so I can't be doing that bad.

THE PICK: TDHAF 112 - AT 74


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (6-4) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (5-5)
Bri can't lose this game!

But seriously, folks, Bri Williams came at via email this week, which I thought was a little weird. I don't know why so many of you are also so eager to point out my shortcomings, jumping at any chance to put me down. It seems really small and I'm not sure where it comes from.

Short version was he claimed that this was actually not a bad fantasy year, I just think it is because I'm having a bad year. The top teams are scoring just as many points as they have in past years. I didn't have time to look into it at the moment, so I conceded that he was probably right. But at the same time, I told him that I had been referring to the abnormal amount of 30- and 40-point games we had seen at the lower end this season. Additionally, the draft usually doesn't match the final stats too closely, but this year had a large amount of random and fluky players having huge games while Julio posts a 7 every week.

But tonight I do have time! I also have just as much pettiness as I ever did. So I went back and looked at 2013-2017, comparing the average PPG of the top three teams and the bottom three teams.

YEAR           TOP 3 PPG                BOTTOM 3 PPG
2017               87/89/90                     58/64/66
2016               92/93/94                     68/72/73
2015               88/91/92                     58/70/75
2014               90/92/102                   69/74/77
2013               92/93/95                     70/71/71

Clearly I am right and Bri is wrong because points are indeed down this season. Now, true, at the top end it's only a 6% decline from the best season. But at the bottom end, scoring is down 15%. So somehow I'm right twice in the same point.

But further, I'd say the craziest name in last year's Top 10 WR scoring was Davante Adams. This year, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Robby Anderson, JuJu, and Robert Woods are all in the top 10. Last year's surprise Top 10 RB was Jordan Howard, a rookie. This year's Top 10 right now has 3 rookies, Hunt, Kamara, and Fournette, plus Chris Thompson. The SAINTS actually have TWO Top 10 RBs right now.

So yes, this is a wild, unpredictable year, and the worst teams in the league are worse than normal, making it a boring year as well. When nothing makes sense, it only makes sense that a guy who was top 3 in PGG in both 2014 and 2015 (me) has lost this year.

A point to Bri, though, is that the 2018 first round is not going to be nearly as deep as I originally anticipated thanks to some crafty contract moves at the deadline. My team still wasn't going anywhere this year, but all of the picks I've landed aren't going to be as valuable as I had hoped.

Bri cut Crowell, like we all knew he had to, and kept DeShaun. So next year we'll all be treated to emails like "You can have Cam for a 1st round pick, or DeShaun for your next nine 1st rounders. You know it's worth it! They're so cheap!"

He also kept 2 defenses after the freeze, which...okay?

I was initially skeptical about Meyers (more like...BRYERS!) giving JuJu a 2-yr deal, but then I saw he was a Top 10 WR so far. Man! Weird year.

THE PICK: TKSMB 83 - AH 71












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