AFFL Week 12 Preview

LAST WEEK: ???
SEASON: 45-16

I'm not adding last week's picks in because I screwed up so badly. Somehow I convinced myself there were only 3 teams in each division and picked accordingly. The picks I meant to have went about .500, but who even knows what was what. I don't think I was drunk last Saturday afternoon when I rushed out the picks, but maybe it was residual effects.

Last week officially eliminated me from the playoffs, so I guess I need to sing the same song I sing to the trophy every season.




By the way, that stunning information I teased earlier this afternoon? I'm saving it for the end.


THE NATIONAL RAZOR (9-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (8-5)
Gary punched his playoff ticket with a 2-0 Thanksgiving week, and his playoffs certainly will not end in tragedy like they did last year. He is definitely winning it all this year. For sure.

Scott has no chance at winning the division because even if he wins this game, the head-to-head tiebreaker will be 1-1 and Gary will win the division record tiebreaker. Gary could still lose the division to Tim, however, if he loses and Tim wins. And whoever wins this division gets a bye, so this game matters 66%.

Hey, remember back in September when I said Dez sucks and Barker pushed back on that saying he'd rather have Dez as a franchise player than almost anybody I had then he cut Dez and Scott picked him up in a pseudo-trade? Scott is benching Dez in this crucial game. The only separation Dez gets these days is being separated from the good WRs on rankings. Once again, if folks would listen to me the first time, I could save everybody a lot of trouble. But you guys are so determined to fight my rightness. I have no idea why.

By the way, I don't care about one Dez touchdown. Dez is basically a decent tight end who costs more than any other tight end by like 50%.

The Bills should hold down Brady a touch in a must-win home game, Hilton will do nothing against Sacksonville (#1 D SHOUT OUT!), Landry will do nothing against Denver, and Kamara is due to miss the end zone one of these weeks.

Ben and AB are on the road, which is bad. They're in Cincy, which is bad. But they're playing in prime time, which is usually amazing. Scott's backfield will keep this close through Sunday, and then a 1st quarter TD will give Scott the win.

But will Gary hang on for the division?

THE PICK: TDHAF 105 - TNR 90


ANIMAL HOUSE (7-6) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (9-4)
I ranked Brian #1 before the season and here he is with a chance to lock up the #1 seed. Funny how that works. Meyers beat McCamey, but lost every other key head-to-head matchup for playoff tiebreakers. So he needs to win and get some helpful losses.

Seattle is actually a home underdog for the first time in years and Philly has been getting their tires pumped for weeks now, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Wilson throw for 5 TDs Sunday night. Julio never has two huge games in a row, but Keenan should smoke Cleveland, and the entire Seattle secondary is hurt, so Alshon might be okay.

Meyers needs Matt Ryan to go off without throwing a TD to Julio, and he needs the Cardinals to slow down the prolific Rams. Michael Thomas needs to catch TDs out of doors.

All in all, I think it's going to seem feasible come Monday. Meyers will be down something like...20, and it'll be possible that Bell can make up the difference. But he won't.

THE PICK: RM 92 - AH 88


SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (9-4) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (7-6)
Mannnnnnnn, did Bri blow it last week. 50 points? If you're going to come at me saying this season isn't fluky and the good teams are scoring as much as ever and you're one of the good teams and you put up a fluky 50 in the crucial double week? Mannnnnnnnnn. Again, why do you all have such a problem with me being right? Just let it wash over you. It's comfortable. It's easy.

Anyway, Bri can still make the playoffs with a loss if Meyers and McCamey both lose, but a win clinches his spot. With Gary losing, Tim can clinch a bye with a win, so we got a big one here, folks!

Bri could really, really use Michael Crabtree this week, especially with Janoris Jenkins hitting IR and the Giants apparently quitting for the season, but Crab is suspended for a playground fight. Him going after Talib for snatching his chain is like Gary going after Dietrich for stepping on his new shiny white Nikes.

Sidebar for another funny Dietrich story. Jim and Missy now live in Austin along Lake Travis, and they are friends with Andy Mollenauer, who went to Penn State Beaver. We're friends with the Mollenauers through North Hills soccer. Andy has always been a big boater and the Dietrichs liked going on the boat, so when they moved from Jersey to Austin and bought a house on a lake, Jim pretty quickly bought a boat. Problem is, he never actually drove the boat before, so he had no idea what to do. So Andy had to fly down to Austin and spend a few days there showing Jim how to pilot and maintain and winterize a boat. The whole thing cracks me up. Who buys a boat first and then is like, "Okay, time to figure out how to boat!"

Tim could also use Amari this week, I guess, but he almost died last week and is out this week. Also...wait a minute. Why is Marqise Lee in Tim's starting lineup. Who is missing here?

OH MY GOD HE IS BENCHING KAREEM HUNT IN A GAME HE NEEDS TO WIN TO CLINCH A BYE.

HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE BALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!

BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE HALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS!

Wow. I will admit, Andy Reid is completely screwing up the Chiefs right now because he's fallen in love with reverse bubble screens to the backup tight end, and he's only giving Hunt the ball 9 times a game, but still. This is gutsy.

You know what? It's the year of Tim! Lee scores a TD, Hunt only has 6 points, and Tim clinches a bye!

Didn't know how to drive a boat. Heh.

THE PICK: SS 93 - TKSMB 85


THE NIGHT BOYS (3-10) vs. ASSTANNER (7-6)
Barker can clinch a single lottery ball with a loss here. Remember, only one ball would be good in Gary world. On the other hand, he could potentially knock Chris out of the playoffs with a win, which would be hilarious.

Also, a Barker win here would give me an extra lottery pick thanks to the AJ trade and could potentially give me the one magic lottery ball, so my rooting interests are clear.

Of course, Barker benched Dak in favor of Bort Blakles. I don't care that he's facing Indy, he's still Bort Blakles. He's also starting two tight ends. On the other hand, Chris is starting Kenyan Drake. Does a team starting Kenyan Drake really deserve to make the playoffs? I submit that they do not.

Hey, remember when Brian Barker claimed the best receiving corn? Technically, Chris does. He has 3 different top-10 WRs. One is Thielen and one is Robby Anderson. The third is AJ.

The 4th best WR right now is Marvin Jones, who has been very hot the last 5 weeks. Again, a fluky year.

God, I can't even pretend Barker is going to win this game. And I really, really, REALLY want to.


THE PICK: AT 81 - TNB 55


WTTK? (6-7) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-8)
McCamey can't make the playoffs with Chris winning, so who cares?

THE PICK: TWR 88 - WTTK? 69


THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (4-9) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (4-9)
Confession time. I'm going to tell you all something that is going to make me look like a genius and an idiot at the same time. But the fact that I'm even telling you and not keeping it to myself is a sign of my unimpeachable integrity.

So...after looking at WR stats and seeing that Chris' top 10 WRs included two of my former guys, and knowing that I was extremely close to grabbing Robby Anderson in pre-season camp, I started wondering what would've happened if I didn't make any trades this season. What if I just rode it out, either because the 2018 draft wasn't that good, or I stubbornly thought my team would turn it around, or I just pouted and quit making moves.

Quick sidebar - after some pre-deadline contract maneuvers, the 2018 draft is not quite as good as I was anticipating back in September. It's still better than 2017, but it's now simply very good instead of amazing.

Anyway, I'd have 3 top 10 WRs, 1 top 10 RB, and the #1 DST by a wide margin. If I still had my Week 1 roster intact, if I was still getting those points each week, how would my team be? So I went back to look at weekly scores, then slotted in Green, Thielen, Hyde, Butker, and Cooper week by week. I didn't change any bench players, I just assumed I would've started AJ over Martavis or Hyde over Marlon Mack.

Also, this doesn't even include me giving up on Latavius Murray way too early.

If I had just held tight, my record right now would be...

...

...

....................

I really don't even want to say it. I'm going to throw up.

10-3

I'd be 10-3 right now. I'd have a bye clinched for the 3rd time in 4 years. I'd have a shot at being the #1 seed for the 2nd time in 3 years.

Instead, I'm essentially a scientist who threw away the first concrete evidence of alien communication because I didn't trust the data.

My 2017 draft was, once again, genius. I managed to pull the #1 team out of a junkyard of a draft. I was the Chip and Joanna Gaines of this draft. I breezed right past injuries to key contract players.

But I was too clever. Too smart for my own good! So determined to get the lead on the 2018 draft that I lost all 2017 flexibility, even when I knew this was going to be a weird, flat, wide open year. And also, doubt crept in. I didn't believe I could possibly be smart enough to cobble together the best team in the league out of spare parts. But I was. I was so good this year that even I couldn't believe it.

Man.

So there it is. I'm just giving this to you, free.

THE PICK: LBJ 50 - TDHGNM 49


Also, Brian Barker is right. This league is boring as hell any more. But I need to save that discussion for next week.