Sigh.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 124.1 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 70.4
The irony of putting up one of the worst scores of the week after spending October railing against my ill fortune is not lost of me. But that's precisely why I was so agitated the last few weeks. I knew that eventually I, like all teams, would put up a C/D score and I needed to have a good enough record to eat the loss.
But since I've lost 3 times when I've scored 100+, I'm now 3-5 instead of 6-2 and next week I have a must-win, season-saving matchup with The Night Boys, and Barkley and Beckham have a bye and Hill might have groin problems.
Scott was giving me some stick about benching Fuller and starting Brees over Rodgers, but really, that just helps prove my point about randomness and luck. Brees and Brown have outscored Rodgers and Fuller on the season. They all had decent matchups. But even if I got this week's lineup right, so what? So I score 86 points and still lose because another opponent posted his best score of the season? What I do carries about half the weight of what an opponent does in a given week.
You know, even with 70 points, I would've beaten Chris this week if we played instead of in Week 4. I would've beaten Scott last week. I would've beaten Bri last week. But I guess I'm just not good at timing my schedule properly, the most important thing a fantasy football GM can do.
So what are we really trying to do here? Are we trying to identify the best team(s)? It seems more like we're trying to find out who can be on the right side of coincidence the most times, and then we give extra emphasis to those coincidences in Weeks 14-16.
Scott has a better record than me, but I'm averaging 10 more points a week. Who has the better team? Barker is TWO games up on me, but I outscore him by 20 a week. Who's better? I have one more win than Chris and 100 more points, but he beat me head-to-head. Who's better?
In the same week that I fell out of the top spot for points for, I gained the top spot in points against. Despite that, I'm still +15 in point differential. The 5-3 Night Boys are -10 in differential.
In my last 4 losses, my opponents have put up 492.2 points. That's 1 point more than Russellmania has scored all season.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 120.6 - FLYNN 78.8
The best name gag Gary has come up, by far, is renaming his Flynn from Heisenberg because his grand plans fell apart and it turns out he's totally inept. Highlight of the season and maybe of the decade for Gary. At least one positive came from a season that is slipping out of his fingers.
Bri has a really good team without question, and when he loses in the playoffs it won't matter one goddamn bit.
THE NIGHT BOYS 111.4 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 73.8
Now this is interesting. The Night Boys went up over 100 points for only the second time this season (2-0 record in such games). Dalton and Boyd combined for 36 points as Boyd continues his breakout season, Cohen had a long TD catch, the Vikes made sure Thielen kept his 100-yard streak alive. All in all, a pretty great week. The last time the Boys put up 100+, they scored 61 the following week, and I really hope that's a trend we see more of next week.
I said last week that Marlon Mack wasn't going to score 30 points in a game for a while and I was right. He merely had 27 this week. Speaking of Mack, I give myself credit for a nice late signing on him last season, but since I traded him away in camp this year when he was hurt, I guess I take the credit away. Semi technically could've won this game if he started Fitz and Marvin Jones and going on a 3-game winning streak after trading your stars away to tank would be hilarious and wild, but I'm guess he's happy to lose and boost up those lottery odds.
WTTK? 91 - RUSSELLMANIA 46.2
Brian had two players going in the London game at 930am and he finished the morning session with a grand total of 1.4 points. So before the majority of games kicked off at 1pm, the score of this game was 1.4 to -7. It only got more ridiculous from there.
ANIMAL HOUSE 93.4 - ASSTANNER 58.9
James Conner is currently outperforming Le'Veon Bell in every running back measurement, advanced or otherwise. I really am not sure what to make of that.
Chris didn't have Zeke this week due to the bye, in case you're wondering why he didn't crack 60 points.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 93.2 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 92.3
I have to admit, I wasn't really paying attention to the fantasy scoreboard Sunday night, so I totally overlooked how back and forth this game was between Murray and Allison and Jones and Diggs.
Larry was back and forth on starting Kenyan Drake Thursday night and ended up pulling him and that turned out to be the difference in this one. The Cards finally started using David Johnson semi-properly, but he suffered a concussion and missed enough carries that maybe that cost Larry the game. I mean, you could really look at one thing every player did plus a thing Larry did and blame the loss on that.
Conversely, Tim got every lineup decision correct, which allowed him to withstand -4.5 points from the Ravens defense and squeak out this win.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Thursday, October 25, 2018
AFFL Week 8 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 29-13
As if losing the last two games wasn't bad enough, the picks are only 6-6 in that time. Plus I got a cold this week so I'm all foggy and this preview is going to be really boring.
(They're all really boring! BRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPP!)
Hush.
The very spicy Week 7 Review didn't generate any hot replies or long comment threads, so I can only assume that's because you all agree with the premise and feel terrible about what is happening to me. I accept your apologies.
By the way, at the moment, 3 teams are projected to score over 100 points this week. Those teams are currently favored to win by 5, 14, and 38 points. Guess which one I am.
Anyway, I'm sure everybody is hoping this isn't another week where I post a great score but somebody comes in to steal my sunshine.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-4)
The other problem with losing these games, besides the obvious, is that it seems like there is going to be a big mush of teams fighting for the Wild Card spots and I keep giving away head-to-head tiebreakers.
This week definitely has the potential for me to post a third straight 100-point loss, give away another tiebreaker, and fall 3-5, which would be good for 10th or 11th place. It might come down to a single roster spot, which is why I'm so tied up in knots about Fuller v. Brown v. Mostert. I mean, it's not that I'm dying to start Raheem Mostert, but he's a great matchup against the Cards if Breida is out, but Fuller plays tonight and all of the experts really like him because Coutee is out. Not to mention picking between Brees and Rodgers.
While I like all of my matchups this week, and Chris Carson owes me one, I'm concerned about all of Scott's guys going off. I would say I'm extremely worried about watching James White and Gostkowski chip away at my 23-point lead on Monday night and losing by 2 points because the Pats kick a field goal to go up 38-3 with 3 minutes left.
Or, worse, the NE DST that Scott just picked makes a late house call on a terrible Derek Anderson pass to seal the win for him.
I dunno. I guess I'm going to have to count on the odds eventually turning in my favor.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 103 - TDHAF 94
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (6-1) vs. HEISENBERG (3-4)
Gary has scored 47.5, 58.3, and 66.1 points in the last 3 weeks. CBS projects him for 72.9 this week, which, hey, that's technical making progress. Kamara is in the lineup, of course, but the rest of this sheet is pretty rough thanks to byes and injuries. Baker Mayfield on the road? Peyton Barber anywhere? Sammy Watkins? Oof. I think we have confirmation that Gary's 100+ point games in Weeks 3 and 4 were the outliers. This team is not good.
Bri is rolling with DeShaun and Lamar Miller tonight, and if Bri thinks the Texans are going to roll, I guess I feel a little bit better about playing Will Fuller.
It will be technically possible that Kamara could score 70 points on Sunday night to lead Gary's heroic comeback, but it seems a little unlikely.
THE PICK: TKSMB 108 - HB 55
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-4)
All Semi had to do was cut off the dead weight of Tyreek Hill and Julio Jones and now is team is flying! Like, should Gary and I reverse our trades him and send those guys back? Does Semi want those guys back to try and make a run now? I'd at least be open to hearing him out on a reversal, plus a little interest for my troubles.
As for Barker, I'm actually not that perturbed by him having a good record with an iffy team after a few years of getting crushed by the most points against. It all comes out in the wash eventually.
(Yes, I am aware that logic would apply to my own whinging, but I'm concerned with my record now, not in 2022.)
Anyway, CBS says he's going to break 100 this week, which is interesting because he's only done it once all season and is averaging like 73 points in the last 3 weeks. But there are a lot of pretty golden matchups in this one. Dalton and Boyd against Tampa, Thielen against the Saints, Cooks against the Packers. Hopkins draws a tough corner again this week, but he's overcome that in the past so why ot tonight as well?
I feel like Marlon Mack probably won't score 30 points for the second week in a row, and I don't like Jameis outside, on the road, in the cold.
THE PICK: TNB 91 - LBJ 70
RUSSELLMANIA (1-6) vs. WTTK? (4-3)
The entire Mania lineup, outside of Alex Smith and Gronk, is second options. Sometimes second options score 17 points, sometimes they score 1.7 points.
Mixon, Kerryon, Luck, Kittle, Davante...all good. The Miami defense will probably post negative points and that won't matter one bit.
Why spend any more time on this matchup than we absolutely need to? The only intriguing angle is if Barker can finally break his worst loss record after taking two good cracks at it earlier this season.
THE PICK: WTTK? 104 - RUSSELLMANIA 49
ANIMAL HOUSE (4-3) vs. ASSTANNER (2-5)
I need to write this today because I'm heading out of town tomorrow, so I'm going to go ahead and assume that Meyers is going to put James Conner into the lineup over Demaryius.
Animal House could potentially struggle a bit this week. It's not impossible to picture Brady struggling on Monday night. It's a prime time home game for Buffalo, which has a pretty aggressive defense and fans that will probably start tailgating Sunday morning even if the game isn't until Monday. We've seen big underdogs play inspired home prime time games many times. I'm definitely not saying Buffalo will pull off an upset; I'm just saying we could see some weirdness.
Ingram should be bottled up against the Vikes' front 7, and the Rams won't post a big score against the Packers, but AJ, Conner, and Mike Thomas will easily be able to balance out the trouble spots.
As for Chris, I get that Jalen Richard is the de facto 1.5 back in Oakland now with Lynch hurt and Doug Martin old, but do you really need a former backup on a team that's giving up on their coach halfway through the season? Mainly because he gave up on them back in August.
My god. Do you see all these teams that aren't me that are going to coast to easy wins this week?
THE PICK: AH 87 - AT 42
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-2) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-3)
If David Johnson doesn't get moving this week with a new OC and a bad SF defense, he never will. That new OC, by the way, is Byron Leftwich, so we are now of the age where the Giants uniforms we remember Mark Bavaro and Phil McConkey in are considered throwbacks, and guys we watched play in college are now coaches. Incidentally, Leftwich says he learned everything from Bruce Arians, so I'd have high hopes for Johnson.
Blug. I'm so tired and foggy and stuffy. Here's what I think about this game. Mahomes will go off, Johnson should, and Landry might. On the other side, Goff, Hunt, and Woods will all go off, Diggs and Jones should, and Howard might. I need a nap.
THE PICK: SS 109 - TWR 89
SEASON: 29-13
As if losing the last two games wasn't bad enough, the picks are only 6-6 in that time. Plus I got a cold this week so I'm all foggy and this preview is going to be really boring.
(They're all really boring! BRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPP!)
Hush.
The very spicy Week 7 Review didn't generate any hot replies or long comment threads, so I can only assume that's because you all agree with the premise and feel terrible about what is happening to me. I accept your apologies.
By the way, at the moment, 3 teams are projected to score over 100 points this week. Those teams are currently favored to win by 5, 14, and 38 points. Guess which one I am.
Anyway, I'm sure everybody is hoping this isn't another week where I post a great score but somebody comes in to steal my sunshine.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-4) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (3-4)
The other problem with losing these games, besides the obvious, is that it seems like there is going to be a big mush of teams fighting for the Wild Card spots and I keep giving away head-to-head tiebreakers.
This week definitely has the potential for me to post a third straight 100-point loss, give away another tiebreaker, and fall 3-5, which would be good for 10th or 11th place. It might come down to a single roster spot, which is why I'm so tied up in knots about Fuller v. Brown v. Mostert. I mean, it's not that I'm dying to start Raheem Mostert, but he's a great matchup against the Cards if Breida is out, but Fuller plays tonight and all of the experts really like him because Coutee is out. Not to mention picking between Brees and Rodgers.
While I like all of my matchups this week, and Chris Carson owes me one, I'm concerned about all of Scott's guys going off. I would say I'm extremely worried about watching James White and Gostkowski chip away at my 23-point lead on Monday night and losing by 2 points because the Pats kick a field goal to go up 38-3 with 3 minutes left.
Or, worse, the NE DST that Scott just picked makes a late house call on a terrible Derek Anderson pass to seal the win for him.
I dunno. I guess I'm going to have to count on the odds eventually turning in my favor.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 103 - TDHAF 94
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (6-1) vs. HEISENBERG (3-4)
Gary has scored 47.5, 58.3, and 66.1 points in the last 3 weeks. CBS projects him for 72.9 this week, which, hey, that's technical making progress. Kamara is in the lineup, of course, but the rest of this sheet is pretty rough thanks to byes and injuries. Baker Mayfield on the road? Peyton Barber anywhere? Sammy Watkins? Oof. I think we have confirmation that Gary's 100+ point games in Weeks 3 and 4 were the outliers. This team is not good.
Bri is rolling with DeShaun and Lamar Miller tonight, and if Bri thinks the Texans are going to roll, I guess I feel a little bit better about playing Will Fuller.
It will be technically possible that Kamara could score 70 points on Sunday night to lead Gary's heroic comeback, but it seems a little unlikely.
THE PICK: TKSMB 108 - HB 55
THE NIGHT BOYS (4-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-4)
All Semi had to do was cut off the dead weight of Tyreek Hill and Julio Jones and now is team is flying! Like, should Gary and I reverse our trades him and send those guys back? Does Semi want those guys back to try and make a run now? I'd at least be open to hearing him out on a reversal, plus a little interest for my troubles.
As for Barker, I'm actually not that perturbed by him having a good record with an iffy team after a few years of getting crushed by the most points against. It all comes out in the wash eventually.
(Yes, I am aware that logic would apply to my own whinging, but I'm concerned with my record now, not in 2022.)
Anyway, CBS says he's going to break 100 this week, which is interesting because he's only done it once all season and is averaging like 73 points in the last 3 weeks. But there are a lot of pretty golden matchups in this one. Dalton and Boyd against Tampa, Thielen against the Saints, Cooks against the Packers. Hopkins draws a tough corner again this week, but he's overcome that in the past so why ot tonight as well?
I feel like Marlon Mack probably won't score 30 points for the second week in a row, and I don't like Jameis outside, on the road, in the cold.
THE PICK: TNB 91 - LBJ 70
RUSSELLMANIA (1-6) vs. WTTK? (4-3)
The entire Mania lineup, outside of Alex Smith and Gronk, is second options. Sometimes second options score 17 points, sometimes they score 1.7 points.
Mixon, Kerryon, Luck, Kittle, Davante...all good. The Miami defense will probably post negative points and that won't matter one bit.
Why spend any more time on this matchup than we absolutely need to? The only intriguing angle is if Barker can finally break his worst loss record after taking two good cracks at it earlier this season.
THE PICK: WTTK? 104 - RUSSELLMANIA 49
ANIMAL HOUSE (4-3) vs. ASSTANNER (2-5)
I need to write this today because I'm heading out of town tomorrow, so I'm going to go ahead and assume that Meyers is going to put James Conner into the lineup over Demaryius.
Animal House could potentially struggle a bit this week. It's not impossible to picture Brady struggling on Monday night. It's a prime time home game for Buffalo, which has a pretty aggressive defense and fans that will probably start tailgating Sunday morning even if the game isn't until Monday. We've seen big underdogs play inspired home prime time games many times. I'm definitely not saying Buffalo will pull off an upset; I'm just saying we could see some weirdness.
Ingram should be bottled up against the Vikes' front 7, and the Rams won't post a big score against the Packers, but AJ, Conner, and Mike Thomas will easily be able to balance out the trouble spots.
As for Chris, I get that Jalen Richard is the de facto 1.5 back in Oakland now with Lynch hurt and Doug Martin old, but do you really need a former backup on a team that's giving up on their coach halfway through the season? Mainly because he gave up on them back in August.
My god. Do you see all these teams that aren't me that are going to coast to easy wins this week?
THE PICK: AH 87 - AT 42
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (5-2) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-3)
If David Johnson doesn't get moving this week with a new OC and a bad SF defense, he never will. That new OC, by the way, is Byron Leftwich, so we are now of the age where the Giants uniforms we remember Mark Bavaro and Phil McConkey in are considered throwbacks, and guys we watched play in college are now coaches. Incidentally, Leftwich says he learned everything from Bruce Arians, so I'd have high hopes for Johnson.
Blug. I'm so tired and foggy and stuffy. Here's what I think about this game. Mahomes will go off, Johnson should, and Landry might. On the other side, Goff, Hunt, and Woods will all go off, Diggs and Jones should, and Howard might. I need a nap.
THE PICK: SS 109 - TWR 89
Monday, October 22, 2018
AFFL Week 7 Review
The highest-scoring team in the league has 3-4 record, which is 4-way tie for 7th.
I'm the highest-scoring team in both of my leagues and I'm a combined 7-7.
I've had the 2nd highest-score for 2 weeks in a row and I'm 0-2 in those weeks.
I have the most points in the last two weeks and I'm 0-2.
Only two teams in the league are over 700 points through 7 weeks. One is 6-1. The other is 3-4.
This season, I've faced the week's highest score 3 different times.
I lost last week because an Aaron Rodgers pass went backwards 6 inches.
I lost this week because a Golladay TD was called back on a penalty, Butker missed a FG after being perfect all season, John Brown was tackled on the 2-yard line, Justin Tucker missed his first PAT ever so Saints/Ravens didn't go to OT, and Marlon Mack ran for a 20-yard TD with 2 minutes left and the Bills showing less effort than a Saturday walkthrough.
You know what the head-to-head schedule does? It randomizes records, adds in a massive dosage of luck, and helps hold the interest of teams of the 3-4 owners that would out of the running every September.
Some people think that is a good thing.
LITTLE BABY JESUS 108.4 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 101.2
Fuck this. This is bullshit. I'm not doing this.
Forget total points. Forget points against. Forget the full schedule breakdown. If I could change my schedule with any other team in the league, the very worst I would be is 4-3.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91.5 - HEISENBERG 66.1
If I played Scott's schedule, I'd be 5-2.
ASSTANNER 82.3 - RUSSELLMANIA 52.9
Who cares?
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 96.1 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 89
If I played Bri this week, I would've won. But I played him last week and lost. Since he's 6-1 and I'm 3-4, I guess that means he's better than me, even though I have more points.
If I played Bri's schedule this season, I'd be 5-2. If he played my schedule, the great Kangaroo would also be 3-4.
THE NIGHT BOYS 69.5 - WTTK? 54.6
Are you fucking kidding me? This should count as half a win.
I'd be 5-2 with The Night Boys' schedule. He'd be 1-6 with my schedule. I have 190 more points on the season, an average of 27 points more PER GAME. But he has 1 more win so I guess he has a better team.
I'd be 6-1 with WTTK's schedule, which isn't an unreasonable possibility since we're actually in the same division. I'd have a 4 game lead in the division with 7 games left. He'd be 2-5 with mine.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 98.7 - ANIMAL HOUSE 93.8
If I played Meyers' schedule, I'd be 5-2.
I'm the highest-scoring team in both of my leagues and I'm a combined 7-7.
I've had the 2nd highest-score for 2 weeks in a row and I'm 0-2 in those weeks.
I have the most points in the last two weeks and I'm 0-2.
Only two teams in the league are over 700 points through 7 weeks. One is 6-1. The other is 3-4.
This season, I've faced the week's highest score 3 different times.
I lost last week because an Aaron Rodgers pass went backwards 6 inches.
I lost this week because a Golladay TD was called back on a penalty, Butker missed a FG after being perfect all season, John Brown was tackled on the 2-yard line, Justin Tucker missed his first PAT ever so Saints/Ravens didn't go to OT, and Marlon Mack ran for a 20-yard TD with 2 minutes left and the Bills showing less effort than a Saturday walkthrough.
You know what the head-to-head schedule does? It randomizes records, adds in a massive dosage of luck, and helps hold the interest of teams of the 3-4 owners that would out of the running every September.
Some people think that is a good thing.
LITTLE BABY JESUS 108.4 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 101.2
Fuck this. This is bullshit. I'm not doing this.
Forget total points. Forget points against. Forget the full schedule breakdown. If I could change my schedule with any other team in the league, the very worst I would be is 4-3.
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91.5 - HEISENBERG 66.1
If I played Scott's schedule, I'd be 5-2.
ASSTANNER 82.3 - RUSSELLMANIA 52.9
Who cares?
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 96.1 - SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 89
If I played Bri this week, I would've won. But I played him last week and lost. Since he's 6-1 and I'm 3-4, I guess that means he's better than me, even though I have more points.
If I played Bri's schedule this season, I'd be 5-2. If he played my schedule, the great Kangaroo would also be 3-4.
THE NIGHT BOYS 69.5 - WTTK? 54.6
Are you fucking kidding me? This should count as half a win.
I'd be 5-2 with The Night Boys' schedule. He'd be 1-6 with my schedule. I have 190 more points on the season, an average of 27 points more PER GAME. But he has 1 more win so I guess he has a better team.
I'd be 6-1 with WTTK's schedule, which isn't an unreasonable possibility since we're actually in the same division. I'd have a 4 game lead in the division with 7 games left. He'd be 2-5 with mine.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 98.7 - ANIMAL HOUSE 93.8
If I played Meyers' schedule, I'd be 5-2.
Friday, October 19, 2018
AFFL Week 7 Preview
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON: 26-10
The roster arms race we're going through is fascinating. I don't want to overreact too much because it's possible that this is just a one-off and the 2018 season has the perfect confluence of catalytic factors up to and including:
But we might also on the bleeding edge here, much like in the NFL itself where coaches like McVay, Pederson, and Reid are becoming more aggressive, creating mismatches, and outracing old fashioned coaches. It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2019.
That said, there is a downside to all of these moves.
Scott might still be alive at 2-5 depending on how other teams do, and he's already ordered one gross of Back2Back AFFL Champions snapbacks that he doesn't want to donate to Sudanese children, so we have 8-9 teams that need to get to 8 wins by Week 13. Every matchup is crucial right now and with so many kicker and defenses byes coming up, things are going to get interesting, mainly on the CapSum tab.
Some teams have the roster cushion and cap space to easily fill in the bye. Why do you think I grabbed the Jets after that trade last week? Only $0.56 for the 3rd-highest scoring defense this season? Yes, please! I saw this crunch coming and got out ahead of it. I'm always looking forward, never backwards. That's not just fantasy football advice for you, that's life advice.
But some teams out there have a panicked accounting department right now. Buncha numbers nerds all making pivot tables and yelling at each other.
"ARE YOU SURE THESE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT?!"
"I CHECKED THREE TIMES, RANDY! I DIDN'T INVENT MATH, OKAY? I CAN'T CHANGE NUMERICAL FACTS!"
"YOU GOTTA TELL THE BOSS THAT WE MIGHT BE SHORT IN WEEK 10!"
"I'M NOT TELLING HIM. YOU TELL HIM!"
Of the Nifty Nine, I'd say that only McCamey, Bri, M. Barker, and I will easily cover the K/DST byes, mainly because BM and BW already have two kickers and MB and MK already have two defenses.
Meyers' kicker has a bye this week, so if he just drops Boswell for one of the four kickers who've already had their bye, he should be okay. Scott is a little iffier because all of his players are either very expensive or very cheap, and he might have to drop name player for cap space. Or he'll be out of it by then and it won't matter.
That leaves us with Tim, Larry, and Gary, all of whom, believe it or not, have the SAME BYE WEEK for their current kickers and defense. All of these come before the roster freeze, so that's one problem eliminated. Yes, Tim already has a second kicker, but their byes are back to back in Weeks 10 and 11, so he can't even drop one kicker for a fill in defense because the freeze is after Week 10. He's already just barely inside the cap, so I have absolutely no idea how Tim is going to finesse this without trades.
Neither Gary nor Larry have a second kicker or defenses, and with the thin cap space they have, it's going to take some pretty good maneuvering to find another kicker and defense that A) Have already had their byes, B) Are affordable, and C) Aren't terrible.
But we're not done yet! As it happens, Larry plays Russellmania in Week 9 and Gary plays the same team in Week 10. Do they both think Brian is bad enough to be beaten with 75% of a roster?
Well, at the moment, the top 12 defenses are averaging 6.3 PPG and the top 12 kickers average 7.6 PPG for a total of 13.9 PPG. Do Gary and Larry think they'll be favored by 14 points over Brian? Will they have a game to possibly throw away by then? And if Brian racks up some cheap wins, what happens to his lottery odds?
Some real butterfly effect shit going on, folks!
Expect some squirrelly-looking trades in the next few weeks that are like K <--> DST + 9th round pick. Hey, that reminds me. Did we ever pass that No Borrowing Players rule after Gary cheated to rent David Johnson?
WHEW. I think that's it for now. Let's (finally) get to this week's action.
Bri took the inside track on the #1 seed with his big win last week and I'm not sure who's going to slow him down and edge him out. It's possible that he has enough of a lead going into Week 12 that he can withstand a double loss with Gurley and Kelce out and still get one of the byes. This season, Bri is simply...
On the music front, I don't expect that any of you actually listen to any of the songs because your coolness factor is (x-1) where x=0, but that's not going to stop me from trying to turn up your lives a little bit. But I am embarrassed to be a tech-savvy person who kept embedding Spotify sniplets instead of just switching over to YouTube embeds to have an inline experience. Poor user experience on my part.
I definitely don't expect you to listen to Metallica, but for my money, this is the best song ever about Moses telling the Pharaoh to let his people go before the Egyptians all lost their first born sons. But there ain't no amount of lamb's blood you can smear on your playbook to stop Bri from raining down fiery hail on your team, leaving you in darkness for three days until Thursday Night Football kicks off.
Man, picturing an image of Bri with his perfectly parted hair, dress shirt, and glowing red eyes chanting "Die! By my hand! I creep across the land." as he smashes little plastic football helmets with his fists is really, really amusing. I wish I was good at Photoshop.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-4)
Speaking of rule changes, did we ever pass that rule where if the highest-scoring team in the league is out of the playoffs by record, they automatically get the 6 seed? Because if the playoffs started today, I'd currently be on the outside.
(While we're stuck on rule changes, next year I'm proposing a Choose Your Own Adventure playoff system in which the higher seeds get to choose their opponent in the playoffs. So in Wild Card week the #3 seed picks his opponent, and in the Semi-Finals, the #1 seed picks his opponent. Be ready to vote YEA on this rule change next year.)
I'm a little surprised Semi didn't start Royce Freeman to try and beat me with all of my all old players. He missed out on a TD with Freeman benched, but Phil Lindsay made up for it with a garbage time TD on which the Cardinals seemingly had no interest in getting grass stains on their pants.
I wouldn't say that I'm concerned about it, but I am at least aware that it's possible I lose this game and fall to 3-4, thereby having the same record as Semi, who started selling off his team last week. Especially with Brees playing outside on the road against a good Ravens defense. That's usually a 10-point game for him. But Golladay, Hill, and Brown should all be fine. I really hope Brown is fine because Barker sent me some real smoke about Smokey this week after he had two down games. Seemed like he had that draft saved for weeks and just itching to hit send on it.
But if Tyreek and Butker don't finish this game off for me Sunday night, Odell and Saquon definitely will on Monday night. The Falcons defense has been crushed by backs this year, both on the ground and passes. They're giving up 11 catches a GAME to backs and Eli targets Saquon with dump off passes 111 times a game. James Conner put up 30 on the Falcons. Hell, Peyton Barber had his first good game against them last week. Beckham and Barkley might combine for 50 in this one.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 110 - LBJ 83
HEISENBERG (3-3) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-4)
Gary clipped me on the Ito Smith pickup this week and has tossed him right into the starting lineup. Scott didn't have to beat out anybody to grab Josh Rosen this week and unfortunately he also went into the starting lineup. I was really hoping Rosen would finish the whole game in negative numbers, not just the first half, but he scraped and clawed his way to 3.8 points well after everybody gave up watching that game.
Speaking of Scott's roster moves, he publicly made AB available last night and the price will be high, as it should be based on the current trade market and AB's status. Now, I'm willing to be wrong here, but looking around the league, I think I might be the only contender who has both the franchise player spot flexibility and the cap space to actually pull this deal off. The only other possibility I see, barring some team totally blowing up their current roster, is Semi. But is he already willing to punt on his cache of draft picks for just one player?
Anyway, we should assume that Matt Ryan will score more than 3.8 points this week, even though he's playing outside at night. The Giants secondary is easier to get through than a cool breeze. I'm done predicting when or if Julio will score a TD, but at this point don't be surprised if he posts something like 38 yards, 1 TD and actually scores fewer points than when he has a huge day with no scores. Ito will be dependent on what Coleman does first and Peyton will have trouble with a good Browns defense. That leaves Alvin to do something against both the Ravens and Mark Ingram.
On the other side, if TJ Yeldon is going to stay iffy, it might not be a bad idea for Scott to start Albert Wilson against the Lions. (Chris Berman voice: UNCLE Albert Wilson. Someone's knocking on the door, let him in. TO THE END ZONE!)
Gary has Ryan, Ito, and Julio all going on Monday night while Scott just has Sterling Shepherd, but I think Gary is going to be sweating this one out a little longer than he might want to. Every red zone target that goes to Coleman or Ridley or Sanu or Hooper is going to be met with the gnashing of teeth and the rending of garments.
THE PICK: HB 76 - TDHAF 63
RUSSELLMANIA (1-5) vs. ASSTANNER (1-5)
In another fun scheduling quirk, Russellmania has gone from a 1-4 v. 1-4 battle to a 1-5 v. 1-5 battle in consecutive weeks. A lot of $3 upper bowl tickets available on StubHub for this one.
Another quirk is that Chris currently has the 6th-highest scoring offense, which isn't bad, but the most points against, which is bad. That said, he's averaging 80 points in his 5 losses and 145 points in his 1 win. A little unbalanced. If you take away that one fluke week, he only has the 10th-best offense and would be 0-6. More importantly, I'd be 4-2.
If you have a couple of minutes to spare today (after the 35 minutes you've spent reading this), you should really take a quick peek at these two rosters. They're really something.
THE PICK: AT 59 - RM 55
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (5-1) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-2)
Bri's team is so good that they got bored and started having wide receivers throw touchdown passes last night. I'd like Coleman over Breida a little more this week, but does it really even matter? All Donte Moncrief did last week was steal $0.19 from Bri's cap space and that didn't matter a bit.
It's a shame too, because Tim has good matchups with Goff and Woods, plus Diggs. It's just that Sanders already put up 20 points, Gurley will get close to 30 against the Niners and there's 50 points right there.
Not sure what else you want me to say about it. Creeping death, I already told you.
THE PICK: TKSMB 108 - SS 95
THE NIGHT BOYS (3-3) vs. WTTK? (4-2)
For all the years he was screwed by having tons and tons of points scored on him, Barker is currently 3-3 and in the hunt despite the 2nd-worst offense in the league because he has the 2nd-fewest points against.
This is a huge game for these two. Going to 4-3 would give Barker a little more control in his quest to end his playoff drought, while going to 5-2 would give McCamey a nice edge on winning the best division in the league.
Not that I respect the CBS projections all that much, but I'm surprised they're that low on these teams this week. I think these rosters are pretty stacked with good matchups and this should be a shootout. I like Dalton more than Rivers this week since Kansas City can't slow down anybody (or maybe they just don't care to) whereas the Titans have been mucking up low-scoring games. Plus, being a red-blooded super patriot, Rivers is probably going to be uncomfortable in England since they probably don't even have a dang ol' Bill of Rights over there!
A good day for Dalton will be a good day for Boyd, and Cooks and Thielen will be good as well. There's a little concern for Hopkins with Jalen Ramsey on him, especially because DeShaun might not have enough time to throw. Cohen is another concern since he's game flow and touchdown dependent. It's either 5 or 15 for him.
The same could be said for Taylor Gabriel on the other side, so I guess it washes out. Even if the Titans make the game ugly for Rivers, Gordon will still grind out yards and a TD, and Mixon will go off against the Chiefs.
Speaking of Gabriel real quick, we're deep into my least favorite part of the fantasy season, which is every single Week X Adds and Week Y Sleepers article just being a list of Guys Who Scored A TD Last Week. Christ, I read "Drop Robby Anderson" for 4 straight weeks, then he scores 2 long TDs in one game and next week it's "Add Robby Anderson". There is entirely too much #content.
Anyway, this game is going to be decided by which gadget Bear has a better day and which deep threat connects on one. And it won't be decided until the Bengals are done on Sunday night. I say a Joe Mixon rushing TD is the difference.
THE PICK: WTTK 93 - TNB 90
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-2) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-2)
Cardinals OC Mike McCoy is a fucking idiot. You have a back who can post a 2,000-yard rushing/receiving season in a league having an offensive explosion. You've seen six weeks' worth of other teams splitting backs out wide, running RPO, getting to the edge with misdirection, and you just bang him into middle of your terrible offensive line over and over and over and over. It's an absolute crime against the sport. It's a complete fucking disgrace. It's like making Steph Curry post up in the paint.
I'd say it's hard to the believe the Cardinals hired him after he did nothing with the Chargers, but failson Cards President Michael Bidwell doesn't think his old prep school chum Brett Kavanaugh raped anybody either, so maybe he just isn't concerned with people's pasts.
There's a site I look at that charts Opportunity Points, which is how many points a player should have based on targets, games, etc. You can decide whether to believe that stuff or not, but Jarvis Landry has been flashing bright green for a month straight. At some point he is going to have a breakout game, so why not this week against the terrible Bucs defense?
He and Evans should both surpass Michael Thomas, who will be closer to ARob's point total. AJ will be nice against the Chiefs, but I don't love Brady, McCaffrey, or Ingram this week.
Larry feels that once again he's middled his team. Not good enough to really compete, not bad enough to blow it up and start over. He couldn't even close the books on a deal for David Johnson, who was once so valuable entire scams were crafted just to get him on a team for six weeks. Let his win this week just add to his confusion.
THE PICK: TWR 88 - AH 81
SEASON: 26-10
The roster arms race we're going through is fascinating. I don't want to overreact too much because it's possible that this is just a one-off and the 2018 season has the perfect confluence of catalytic factors up to and including:
- Chris and Scott winning the last 3 titles while mostly eschewing the draft (Credit very begrudgingly given where due)
- The league falling into clear tiers following the 2018 draft with 2-3 dominant teams, 2-3 junk teams, and a big, muddy middle
- So 2-3 teams had incentive to sell off players almost immediately
- And the remaining teams knew they needed to add players if they wanted to join the elite tier
- A 2019 draft that is shaping up to be historically bereft of talent, diluting the normal power of picks
- With the NFL setting new records for passer rating, total TDs, passing yards, and passing TDs, more receivers than ever have value and 2nd- or 3rd-tier receivers are worth trading for
- A quick flurry of trades last week that became like a positional run during a draft, with teams jockeying to capture players who were still available and useful while also trying to box out other owners from bolstering their teams
But we might also on the bleeding edge here, much like in the NFL itself where coaches like McVay, Pederson, and Reid are becoming more aggressive, creating mismatches, and outracing old fashioned coaches. It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2019.
That said, there is a downside to all of these moves.
Scott might still be alive at 2-5 depending on how other teams do, and he's already ordered one gross of Back2Back AFFL Champions snapbacks that he doesn't want to donate to Sudanese children, so we have 8-9 teams that need to get to 8 wins by Week 13. Every matchup is crucial right now and with so many kicker and defenses byes coming up, things are going to get interesting, mainly on the CapSum tab.
Some teams have the roster cushion and cap space to easily fill in the bye. Why do you think I grabbed the Jets after that trade last week? Only $0.56 for the 3rd-highest scoring defense this season? Yes, please! I saw this crunch coming and got out ahead of it. I'm always looking forward, never backwards. That's not just fantasy football advice for you, that's life advice.
But some teams out there have a panicked accounting department right now. Buncha numbers nerds all making pivot tables and yelling at each other.
"ARE YOU SURE THESE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT?!"
"I CHECKED THREE TIMES, RANDY! I DIDN'T INVENT MATH, OKAY? I CAN'T CHANGE NUMERICAL FACTS!"
"YOU GOTTA TELL THE BOSS THAT WE MIGHT BE SHORT IN WEEK 10!"
"I'M NOT TELLING HIM. YOU TELL HIM!"
Of the Nifty Nine, I'd say that only McCamey, Bri, M. Barker, and I will easily cover the K/DST byes, mainly because BM and BW already have two kickers and MB and MK already have two defenses.
Meyers' kicker has a bye this week, so if he just drops Boswell for one of the four kickers who've already had their bye, he should be okay. Scott is a little iffier because all of his players are either very expensive or very cheap, and he might have to drop name player for cap space. Or he'll be out of it by then and it won't matter.
That leaves us with Tim, Larry, and Gary, all of whom, believe it or not, have the SAME BYE WEEK for their current kickers and defense. All of these come before the roster freeze, so that's one problem eliminated. Yes, Tim already has a second kicker, but their byes are back to back in Weeks 10 and 11, so he can't even drop one kicker for a fill in defense because the freeze is after Week 10. He's already just barely inside the cap, so I have absolutely no idea how Tim is going to finesse this without trades.
Neither Gary nor Larry have a second kicker or defenses, and with the thin cap space they have, it's going to take some pretty good maneuvering to find another kicker and defense that A) Have already had their byes, B) Are affordable, and C) Aren't terrible.
But we're not done yet! As it happens, Larry plays Russellmania in Week 9 and Gary plays the same team in Week 10. Do they both think Brian is bad enough to be beaten with 75% of a roster?
Well, at the moment, the top 12 defenses are averaging 6.3 PPG and the top 12 kickers average 7.6 PPG for a total of 13.9 PPG. Do Gary and Larry think they'll be favored by 14 points over Brian? Will they have a game to possibly throw away by then? And if Brian racks up some cheap wins, what happens to his lottery odds?
Some real butterfly effect shit going on, folks!
Expect some squirrelly-looking trades in the next few weeks that are like K <--> DST + 9th round pick. Hey, that reminds me. Did we ever pass that No Borrowing Players rule after Gary cheated to rent David Johnson?
WHEW. I think that's it for now. Let's (finally) get to this week's action.
Bri took the inside track on the #1 seed with his big win last week and I'm not sure who's going to slow him down and edge him out. It's possible that he has enough of a lead going into Week 12 that he can withstand a double loss with Gurley and Kelce out and still get one of the byes. This season, Bri is simply...
On the music front, I don't expect that any of you actually listen to any of the songs because your coolness factor is (x-1) where x=0, but that's not going to stop me from trying to turn up your lives a little bit. But I am embarrassed to be a tech-savvy person who kept embedding Spotify sniplets instead of just switching over to YouTube embeds to have an inline experience. Poor user experience on my part.
I definitely don't expect you to listen to Metallica, but for my money, this is the best song ever about Moses telling the Pharaoh to let his people go before the Egyptians all lost their first born sons. But there ain't no amount of lamb's blood you can smear on your playbook to stop Bri from raining down fiery hail on your team, leaving you in darkness for three days until Thursday Night Football kicks off.
Man, picturing an image of Bri with his perfectly parted hair, dress shirt, and glowing red eyes chanting "Die! By my hand! I creep across the land." as he smashes little plastic football helmets with his fists is really, really amusing. I wish I was good at Photoshop.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-3) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (2-4)
Speaking of rule changes, did we ever pass that rule where if the highest-scoring team in the league is out of the playoffs by record, they automatically get the 6 seed? Because if the playoffs started today, I'd currently be on the outside.
(While we're stuck on rule changes, next year I'm proposing a Choose Your Own Adventure playoff system in which the higher seeds get to choose their opponent in the playoffs. So in Wild Card week the #3 seed picks his opponent, and in the Semi-Finals, the #1 seed picks his opponent. Be ready to vote YEA on this rule change next year.)
I'm a little surprised Semi didn't start Royce Freeman to try and beat me with all of my all old players. He missed out on a TD with Freeman benched, but Phil Lindsay made up for it with a garbage time TD on which the Cardinals seemingly had no interest in getting grass stains on their pants.
I wouldn't say that I'm concerned about it, but I am at least aware that it's possible I lose this game and fall to 3-4, thereby having the same record as Semi, who started selling off his team last week. Especially with Brees playing outside on the road against a good Ravens defense. That's usually a 10-point game for him. But Golladay, Hill, and Brown should all be fine. I really hope Brown is fine because Barker sent me some real smoke about Smokey this week after he had two down games. Seemed like he had that draft saved for weeks and just itching to hit send on it.
But if Tyreek and Butker don't finish this game off for me Sunday night, Odell and Saquon definitely will on Monday night. The Falcons defense has been crushed by backs this year, both on the ground and passes. They're giving up 11 catches a GAME to backs and Eli targets Saquon with dump off passes 111 times a game. James Conner put up 30 on the Falcons. Hell, Peyton Barber had his first good game against them last week. Beckham and Barkley might combine for 50 in this one.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 110 - LBJ 83
HEISENBERG (3-3) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-4)
Gary clipped me on the Ito Smith pickup this week and has tossed him right into the starting lineup. Scott didn't have to beat out anybody to grab Josh Rosen this week and unfortunately he also went into the starting lineup. I was really hoping Rosen would finish the whole game in negative numbers, not just the first half, but he scraped and clawed his way to 3.8 points well after everybody gave up watching that game.
Speaking of Scott's roster moves, he publicly made AB available last night and the price will be high, as it should be based on the current trade market and AB's status. Now, I'm willing to be wrong here, but looking around the league, I think I might be the only contender who has both the franchise player spot flexibility and the cap space to actually pull this deal off. The only other possibility I see, barring some team totally blowing up their current roster, is Semi. But is he already willing to punt on his cache of draft picks for just one player?
Anyway, we should assume that Matt Ryan will score more than 3.8 points this week, even though he's playing outside at night. The Giants secondary is easier to get through than a cool breeze. I'm done predicting when or if Julio will score a TD, but at this point don't be surprised if he posts something like 38 yards, 1 TD and actually scores fewer points than when he has a huge day with no scores. Ito will be dependent on what Coleman does first and Peyton will have trouble with a good Browns defense. That leaves Alvin to do something against both the Ravens and Mark Ingram.
On the other side, if TJ Yeldon is going to stay iffy, it might not be a bad idea for Scott to start Albert Wilson against the Lions. (Chris Berman voice: UNCLE Albert Wilson. Someone's knocking on the door, let him in. TO THE END ZONE!)
Gary has Ryan, Ito, and Julio all going on Monday night while Scott just has Sterling Shepherd, but I think Gary is going to be sweating this one out a little longer than he might want to. Every red zone target that goes to Coleman or Ridley or Sanu or Hooper is going to be met with the gnashing of teeth and the rending of garments.
THE PICK: HB 76 - TDHAF 63
RUSSELLMANIA (1-5) vs. ASSTANNER (1-5)
In another fun scheduling quirk, Russellmania has gone from a 1-4 v. 1-4 battle to a 1-5 v. 1-5 battle in consecutive weeks. A lot of $3 upper bowl tickets available on StubHub for this one.
Another quirk is that Chris currently has the 6th-highest scoring offense, which isn't bad, but the most points against, which is bad. That said, he's averaging 80 points in his 5 losses and 145 points in his 1 win. A little unbalanced. If you take away that one fluke week, he only has the 10th-best offense and would be 0-6. More importantly, I'd be 4-2.
If you have a couple of minutes to spare today (after the 35 minutes you've spent reading this), you should really take a quick peek at these two rosters. They're really something.
THE PICK: AT 59 - RM 55
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (5-1) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (4-2)
Bri's team is so good that they got bored and started having wide receivers throw touchdown passes last night. I'd like Coleman over Breida a little more this week, but does it really even matter? All Donte Moncrief did last week was steal $0.19 from Bri's cap space and that didn't matter a bit.
It's a shame too, because Tim has good matchups with Goff and Woods, plus Diggs. It's just that Sanders already put up 20 points, Gurley will get close to 30 against the Niners and there's 50 points right there.
Not sure what else you want me to say about it. Creeping death, I already told you.
THE PICK: TKSMB 108 - SS 95
THE NIGHT BOYS (3-3) vs. WTTK? (4-2)
For all the years he was screwed by having tons and tons of points scored on him, Barker is currently 3-3 and in the hunt despite the 2nd-worst offense in the league because he has the 2nd-fewest points against.
This is a huge game for these two. Going to 4-3 would give Barker a little more control in his quest to end his playoff drought, while going to 5-2 would give McCamey a nice edge on winning the best division in the league.
Not that I respect the CBS projections all that much, but I'm surprised they're that low on these teams this week. I think these rosters are pretty stacked with good matchups and this should be a shootout. I like Dalton more than Rivers this week since Kansas City can't slow down anybody (or maybe they just don't care to) whereas the Titans have been mucking up low-scoring games. Plus, being a red-blooded super patriot, Rivers is probably going to be uncomfortable in England since they probably don't even have a dang ol' Bill of Rights over there!
A good day for Dalton will be a good day for Boyd, and Cooks and Thielen will be good as well. There's a little concern for Hopkins with Jalen Ramsey on him, especially because DeShaun might not have enough time to throw. Cohen is another concern since he's game flow and touchdown dependent. It's either 5 or 15 for him.
The same could be said for Taylor Gabriel on the other side, so I guess it washes out. Even if the Titans make the game ugly for Rivers, Gordon will still grind out yards and a TD, and Mixon will go off against the Chiefs.
Speaking of Gabriel real quick, we're deep into my least favorite part of the fantasy season, which is every single Week X Adds and Week Y Sleepers article just being a list of Guys Who Scored A TD Last Week. Christ, I read "Drop Robby Anderson" for 4 straight weeks, then he scores 2 long TDs in one game and next week it's "Add Robby Anderson". There is entirely too much #content.
Anyway, this game is going to be decided by which gadget Bear has a better day and which deep threat connects on one. And it won't be decided until the Bengals are done on Sunday night. I say a Joe Mixon rushing TD is the difference.
THE PICK: WTTK 93 - TNB 90
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-2) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (4-2)
Cardinals OC Mike McCoy is a fucking idiot. You have a back who can post a 2,000-yard rushing/receiving season in a league having an offensive explosion. You've seen six weeks' worth of other teams splitting backs out wide, running RPO, getting to the edge with misdirection, and you just bang him into middle of your terrible offensive line over and over and over and over. It's an absolute crime against the sport. It's a complete fucking disgrace. It's like making Steph Curry post up in the paint.
I'd say it's hard to the believe the Cardinals hired him after he did nothing with the Chargers, but failson Cards President Michael Bidwell doesn't think his old prep school chum Brett Kavanaugh raped anybody either, so maybe he just isn't concerned with people's pasts.
There's a site I look at that charts Opportunity Points, which is how many points a player should have based on targets, games, etc. You can decide whether to believe that stuff or not, but Jarvis Landry has been flashing bright green for a month straight. At some point he is going to have a breakout game, so why not this week against the terrible Bucs defense?
He and Evans should both surpass Michael Thomas, who will be closer to ARob's point total. AJ will be nice against the Chiefs, but I don't love Brady, McCaffrey, or Ingram this week.
Larry feels that once again he's middled his team. Not good enough to really compete, not bad enough to blow it up and start over. He couldn't even close the books on a deal for David Johnson, who was once so valuable entire scams were crafted just to get him on a team for six weeks. Let his win this week just add to his confusion.
THE PICK: TWR 88 - AH 81
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
AFFL Week 6 Review
If you're wondering why the AFFL is so crazy and unpredictable, take a look to the source material, the NFL. Dallas' 30th-ranked offense hung 40 points on what's supposed to be a good Jacksonville defense thanks to the uncoverable Cole Beasley, and that wasn't as odd as BROCK OSWEILER putting up 30+ in a win against the Bears.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 114.7 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 112.7
If you were hoping to season your lunch today with a nice schmear of schadenfreude, I'm not going to be able to help you out. Oh sure, I could easily point out like 11 variables that all went against me, a single one of which, if flipped, would've handed me the win. My favorite is probably that the first Packers touchdown was ruled a lateral because Rodgers threw the ball six inches backwards and that cost me the game. Or that I'm the highest-scoring team in the league, but I'm 3-3 and in last place in my division while Larry has 100 fewer points than me, but is 4-2 and in first place in his. Or that one of my losses came when I had the 2nd-highest score of that week and another came when I went up against the highest score in four years.
But after years of everybody in this league saying only championships matter mixed with the futility of me trying to attempt to convince everybody that repeated winning seasons is actually a truer measure of which owners know what they're doing, how am I supposed to care about a Week 6 loss? All I need to do is get into the playoffs and go from there and if I alternate wins and losses each week and maybe sneak out a bonus win to limp into the playoffs at 8-6, I'll be fine.
Let's focus on the positives. I'm going to focus on the positives. I predicted Bri would win this game 118-111, which is pretty good. I said that Cam should start and Bri took my advice and that gave him the win, which is pretty good. I said that Rodgers would lead an exciting comeback that ultimately fell short, which is pretty good. I told Bri that I needed Barkley and Beckham to combine for 40 points on TNF to have a chance, and they were 5 points short, which is pretty good.
Side note: I had a beer league hockey game last night so I missed the end of MNF. I came out to my car to find out I ended up losing. Which is a little different than my game against Bri last season, when I also had a beer league hockey game and missed the end of prime time football, and came out to my car to find out DeShaun Watson had gone wild in the 4th quarter, scored 38 points in the game, and given Bri the comeback win.
Bri emailed me on Friday to say that he was considering starting an injured TY Hilton just to prove he could beat me down one player, but Barkley's effort talked him out of that. So he picked up Donte Moncrief, who posted a 0, inadvertently proving Bri's point.
Oh, one last thing. I'm two different leagues and I'm the highest-scoring team in both. My combined record is 7-5.
THE NIGHT BOYS 79.5 - HEISENBERG 58.2
Bri and I this week both beat Gary's score from the last two weeks combined. If Gary can't crack 60 points without Alvin Kamara going off, some more trades might be in order. Trades for guys who can score touchdowns, unlike, say, Julio Jones. I had noted in the preview that starting two guys from Tennessee's invisible offense was questionable and the Titans responded by getting sacked 11 times in a shutout. Not that Gary had other options anyway since new pickup Mike Davis had 2.6 points and Quincy Enunwa actually scored -0.1 points. Catching a 9-yard pass and fumbling while getting hurt, that's a rare achievement.
Barker's WR trade, however, paid off nicely with Thielen putting up 18.3 points in his 6th-straight game with 100-yard receiving. Dalton managed 2 TDs without much yardage and Cohen and Hopkins added needed touchdowns. Barker also technically won the defensive matchup with his Bears outscoring Gary's Browns -1 to -3. So clutch!
Both of these teams are now 3-3 which technically puts them right in the middle of the playoff hunt. That said, Barker has broken 100 points once, scored 45 once, and has 2 wins despite scoring in the 70s in those games. Gary started with 2 average games, then had 2 amazing games, and has now had 2 terrible games. It doesn't seem like either team is really built for the long haul.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 96.4 - ASSTANNER 78.3
Tim went into MNF with a 5-point lead and both teams had one remaining roster spot to go, and those spots were completely symbiotic. CJ Beatherd for Tim and the Packers D for Chris. If one did well, the other wouldn't. Actually...symbiotic is like those little fish that trail sharks and eat the leftover bits. They help each other. This was more like that worm that gets into an ant's brain and turns them into a zombie until the ant dies. Only Beatherd or the Pack could survive! It was Beatherd.
Tim is now 4-2 and Chris is 1-5. Chris could've won this week if he'd kept Thielen or started Wentz or started Funchess, but I'm not sure he wants to win games at this point, so whatever.
WTTK? 108.3 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 91.2
Larry texted at kickoff last night hoping that if Davante Adams was going to end up beating him, he wanted it to be over quickly and not drag out his hopes. Doing it in the first half should've been quick enough, and going to on to finish with 25 points was very showy, unnecessary, and not sportsmanlike. Poor form.
The main difference in this one is that Melvin Gordon scored 33 points while former WTTKer David Johnson only had 12 points. McCamey drafted Gordon with the first round pick he received from Larry for David Johnson, so I guess McCamey has officially won the trade. By the way, the Cardinals have the fewest rushing attempts in the league so far, but the MOST attempts right up the middle. Pretty good coaching. Pretty good use of your available resources.
ANIMAL HOUSE 98.3 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91
The miracle touchdown from Ben to AB and Gostkowski's 19 points last night weren't enough to get Scott the win and if Gary has any guts, he'll spend this week working on a trade for AB to replace Devonta Freeman as his franchise player. Or Bri, who got shut out in the WR derby last week, could finally have his opportunity to move on from Cam.
It would've been amusing if Meyers lost this game because JuJu's head touched down at the 2-inch line, but Brady's 20 points on Sunday night were enough to seal the deal. Although, since James Conner pounded it in the next play, I guess that possibility was not technically feasible. Ah well.
LITTLE BABY JESUS 98.7 - RUSSELLMANIA 81.9
PS, I would've won this week if I just went for Tyreek in the trade and kept Jameis as my Week 6 QB.
Keenan Allen, who is allegedly worth a 1st round pick, scored 10.3 points even though the Chargers put up 38 against Cleveland. Amari Cooper, who might get traded in real life apparently, scored a 0 on Barker's bench after being concussed with a headshot. Allen at least outscored Gronk by 1 point, who is also apparently worth a 1st round pick. Barker's 3rd guy he thought was worth a 1st round pick, matched Gronk with 9.4 points. Saquon outscored those 3 combined this week and is now outscoring all 3 combined for the season. This trade is starting to take on shades of the Jagr deal. McCoy is Ross Lupachek. Cooper is Kris Beech. In fact, I'm going to stop talking about it because it worked out so well that the talk is becoming gauche. It's like somebody says they had to cancel their cable package to help make ends meet for the holiday and I start talking about how I bought Apple stock at $12.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 114.7 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 112.7
If you were hoping to season your lunch today with a nice schmear of schadenfreude, I'm not going to be able to help you out. Oh sure, I could easily point out like 11 variables that all went against me, a single one of which, if flipped, would've handed me the win. My favorite is probably that the first Packers touchdown was ruled a lateral because Rodgers threw the ball six inches backwards and that cost me the game. Or that I'm the highest-scoring team in the league, but I'm 3-3 and in last place in my division while Larry has 100 fewer points than me, but is 4-2 and in first place in his. Or that one of my losses came when I had the 2nd-highest score of that week and another came when I went up against the highest score in four years.
But after years of everybody in this league saying only championships matter mixed with the futility of me trying to attempt to convince everybody that repeated winning seasons is actually a truer measure of which owners know what they're doing, how am I supposed to care about a Week 6 loss? All I need to do is get into the playoffs and go from there and if I alternate wins and losses each week and maybe sneak out a bonus win to limp into the playoffs at 8-6, I'll be fine.
Let's focus on the positives. I'm going to focus on the positives. I predicted Bri would win this game 118-111, which is pretty good. I said that Cam should start and Bri took my advice and that gave him the win, which is pretty good. I said that Rodgers would lead an exciting comeback that ultimately fell short, which is pretty good. I told Bri that I needed Barkley and Beckham to combine for 40 points on TNF to have a chance, and they were 5 points short, which is pretty good.
Side note: I had a beer league hockey game last night so I missed the end of MNF. I came out to my car to find out I ended up losing. Which is a little different than my game against Bri last season, when I also had a beer league hockey game and missed the end of prime time football, and came out to my car to find out DeShaun Watson had gone wild in the 4th quarter, scored 38 points in the game, and given Bri the comeback win.
Bri emailed me on Friday to say that he was considering starting an injured TY Hilton just to prove he could beat me down one player, but Barkley's effort talked him out of that. So he picked up Donte Moncrief, who posted a 0, inadvertently proving Bri's point.
Oh, one last thing. I'm two different leagues and I'm the highest-scoring team in both. My combined record is 7-5.
THE NIGHT BOYS 79.5 - HEISENBERG 58.2
Bri and I this week both beat Gary's score from the last two weeks combined. If Gary can't crack 60 points without Alvin Kamara going off, some more trades might be in order. Trades for guys who can score touchdowns, unlike, say, Julio Jones. I had noted in the preview that starting two guys from Tennessee's invisible offense was questionable and the Titans responded by getting sacked 11 times in a shutout. Not that Gary had other options anyway since new pickup Mike Davis had 2.6 points and Quincy Enunwa actually scored -0.1 points. Catching a 9-yard pass and fumbling while getting hurt, that's a rare achievement.
Barker's WR trade, however, paid off nicely with Thielen putting up 18.3 points in his 6th-straight game with 100-yard receiving. Dalton managed 2 TDs without much yardage and Cohen and Hopkins added needed touchdowns. Barker also technically won the defensive matchup with his Bears outscoring Gary's Browns -1 to -3. So clutch!
Both of these teams are now 3-3 which technically puts them right in the middle of the playoff hunt. That said, Barker has broken 100 points once, scored 45 once, and has 2 wins despite scoring in the 70s in those games. Gary started with 2 average games, then had 2 amazing games, and has now had 2 terrible games. It doesn't seem like either team is really built for the long haul.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 96.4 - ASSTANNER 78.3
Tim went into MNF with a 5-point lead and both teams had one remaining roster spot to go, and those spots were completely symbiotic. CJ Beatherd for Tim and the Packers D for Chris. If one did well, the other wouldn't. Actually...symbiotic is like those little fish that trail sharks and eat the leftover bits. They help each other. This was more like that worm that gets into an ant's brain and turns them into a zombie until the ant dies. Only Beatherd or the Pack could survive! It was Beatherd.
Tim is now 4-2 and Chris is 1-5. Chris could've won this week if he'd kept Thielen or started Wentz or started Funchess, but I'm not sure he wants to win games at this point, so whatever.
WTTK? 108.3 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 91.2
Larry texted at kickoff last night hoping that if Davante Adams was going to end up beating him, he wanted it to be over quickly and not drag out his hopes. Doing it in the first half should've been quick enough, and going to on to finish with 25 points was very showy, unnecessary, and not sportsmanlike. Poor form.
The main difference in this one is that Melvin Gordon scored 33 points while former WTTKer David Johnson only had 12 points. McCamey drafted Gordon with the first round pick he received from Larry for David Johnson, so I guess McCamey has officially won the trade. By the way, the Cardinals have the fewest rushing attempts in the league so far, but the MOST attempts right up the middle. Pretty good coaching. Pretty good use of your available resources.
ANIMAL HOUSE 98.3 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 91
The miracle touchdown from Ben to AB and Gostkowski's 19 points last night weren't enough to get Scott the win and if Gary has any guts, he'll spend this week working on a trade for AB to replace Devonta Freeman as his franchise player. Or Bri, who got shut out in the WR derby last week, could finally have his opportunity to move on from Cam.
It would've been amusing if Meyers lost this game because JuJu's head touched down at the 2-inch line, but Brady's 20 points on Sunday night were enough to seal the deal. Although, since James Conner pounded it in the next play, I guess that possibility was not technically feasible. Ah well.
LITTLE BABY JESUS 98.7 - RUSSELLMANIA 81.9
PS, I would've won this week if I just went for Tyreek in the trade and kept Jameis as my Week 6 QB.
Keenan Allen, who is allegedly worth a 1st round pick, scored 10.3 points even though the Chargers put up 38 against Cleveland. Amari Cooper, who might get traded in real life apparently, scored a 0 on Barker's bench after being concussed with a headshot. Allen at least outscored Gronk by 1 point, who is also apparently worth a 1st round pick. Barker's 3rd guy he thought was worth a 1st round pick, matched Gronk with 9.4 points. Saquon outscored those 3 combined this week and is now outscoring all 3 combined for the season. This trade is starting to take on shades of the Jagr deal. McCoy is Ross Lupachek. Cooper is Kris Beech. In fact, I'm going to stop talking about it because it worked out so well that the talk is becoming gauche. It's like somebody says they had to cancel their cable package to help make ends meet for the holiday and I start talking about how I bought Apple stock at $12.
Friday, October 12, 2018
AFFL Week 6 Preview
LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 23-7
The AFFL trade market was like Hong Kong real estate this week with players being put on the block, offers coming through instantly, picks being tossed around, and bidding wars breaking out for even white wide receivers. Thing is, I don't think we're done with the action. There's still one more 1-4 team that's yet to sell anybody off for picks and he's got some pretty attractive pass catchers to offload. Not enough to keep him from being 1-5 by Tuesday, but still.
There's also the possibility that a couple of teams drop to 2-4 after losses this week and then want to jump into that sweet sellers market. EARN PICK$$$ NOW! WORK FROM HOME! ASK ME HOW!
I love the idea that 2 owners control nearly 50% of the first round and I love, love the idea that Chris could end up with 3-4 picks in the Top 24 if he really cleans house. If we can get Tim to trade a 1st for a player so we can avoid the traditional 10-minute draft delay, it'll be the best draft ever!
Except for the actual players.
The 2018 draft had one of the deepest first rounds in years. Through Week 5, the first round produced two Top-5 backs and four Top-15 receivers, plus Julio would be Top-10 if he had even a single touchdown. Oh, and Kelce, who's the #1 TE with enough points to be a Top-20 WR. Will the 2019 draft be as rich?
Uhh...maybe not. Looking through expiring contracts and unsigned players, I put together a quick and dirty first round mock.
1) Le'Veon Bell / Michael Thomas
2) Leonard Fournette
3) Adam Thielen
4) JuJu Smith-Schuster
5) AJ Green
6) Jordan Howard
7) Mark Ingram
8) Kenyan Drake
9) Jerick McKinnon
10) Aaron Jones
11) Benny Snell
12) Aaron Rodgers
The Bell/Thomas split is based on whomever Meyers ends up letting go after this season, assuming he doesn't trade Bell. A fair assumption since he literally hasn't made a trade since 2014. If you're wondering, on Aug 21, 2014, he traded a 3rd rounder to Gary for Roddy White and an 11th rounder to Bri for Ben Tate. Two trades in one day! He must still be recovering from exhaustion.
But let's get our focus back to 2018 for now. Oakland and Seattle play in London this week and this game is not moved up to 9am Eastern time because the NFL must think, get this, the hometown fans don't want to get up at 6am to watch their teams. How are the two teams getting to London? Why...
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (4-1)
Now THAT was a trade worth talking about! That is some action! When I first inquired about Tyreek, Semi said he was looking to blow the whole thing up after years of stagnation, one thing led to another, and the next morning I accidentally wore two left shoes home. It hurt but it was worth it!
After going heavy on running backs in the draft only to watch the NFL set new records for passing TDs and QB ratings in the first quarter of the season, I quickly pivoted and now Hill gives me the chance to roll out a 1-4 WR lineup with Saquon being the 1. I can dig it.
Oh, and to answer a rather impudent question from Wednesday, Rodgers had been a franchise player for 9 seasons, well above the threshold of 5, so I made him a 1/X on my roster.
Speaking of moves, Bri needs to make an emergency one this week because with Golden Tate's bye and TY Hilton's injury, he literally cannot start a legal lineup. There are plenty of streamable receivers out there to be sure, and Bri has the cap space, it's just a matter of finding a guy who's going to score in what's certain to be a shootout between the two highest-scoring teams in the league. One that could potentially determine a bye and who doesn't due to H2H results.
I emailed Bri Thursday afternoon just to get it on the record that I thought I needed 40 points total from Barkley and Beckham last night to have a chance in this game. Barkley did his part in a transcendent effort, but Odell (Eli, really) came up one TD short. Unfortunately for me, the Giants offense has all of 3 plays:
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-3) vs. HEISENBERG (3-2)
Wednesday evening, I got an e-visit from my favorite Gary of them all, Conspiracy Gary. He accused me of having an arrangement in which I was either managing Semi's team or that we'd be swapping entire franchises next year or that we'd just keep trading players back and forth to each other and that if and when this arrangement came to light, the AFFL would explode and die. He then asked me to put the longevity of the league ahead of my "Richard Matthews encore."
Okay, first off, Dick Matthews was a great man and it's a damn shame the PC Police chased him out of this league just because he was a Trump man. The liberal mobs in this league gave him the #Kavanaugh treatment. #himtoo #maga
Second off, I thought the trade was pretty great all around, but I didn't realize it was so great that it would reach QAnon conspiracy levels. Now I like the deal even more.
Oh, the subject line of Gary's email was OFF THE RECORD, but as I told him, when I receive Trump-level deranged ramblings, my journalistic ethics dictate that I put those comments ON the record ASAP. To do otherwise would be a lie to myself and to the league.
After a little more digging, it turned out that the catalyst for this conspiracy in Gary's mind was last week when I discussed how Semi said he couldn't figure out the league. So Gary's fertile imagination, perhaps accelerated by Judge Jeannie, figured that Semi was struggling and therefore within one week I convinced him to hand over his franchise to me in a Rasputin-esque power grab. This was a more logical explanation than a bad team trading players to a good team for picks, something that happens multiple times a year and in fact happened three different times this week alone.
Folks, you cannot put a price on the amusement this league provides. I mean, technically the fees are a price, I guess, but you get so much value for that money!
Sticking with trades for a moment, how about that Thielen deal? It's not quite the golden deal Chris had that I referenced in the Review, but it was still a little more exorbitant than I expected for Thielen. Though he is the #1 WR right now and Barker can just draft a rookie kicker in the 7th round next year instead of the 6th.
In just 1 1/2 seasons, Adam Thielen's value has gone from my 9th round pick to Chris' 2nd round pick to Barker's 1st, 3rd, and 6th. That's some rise. Keep that in mind now I gave Kenny Golladay a cheap contract even though Gary says me overrating "weekly streamer receivers" is how I keep getting in trouble.
Anyway, would you like to talk about this matchup at some point? The holes in Gary's lineup really stick out when he doesn't have that oil painting of Alvin Kamara to hang over them. Newly-arrived Julio helps a bit and my promise to you is that this is the week he finally scores a touchdown. Corey Davis also goes straight into the starting lineup. Hopefully Mariota is able to grip a ball by Sunday so he can throw it to Davis. If not, maybe he can just dump it off to Dion Lewis, who also gets the start for Gary this week. I guess you've got to admire the moxie of a guy who's willing to start two players from one of the worst offenses in the league against a good defense.
Between Thielen, Corey Davis, Julio, Hopkins, and Baldwin, there is a lot of money invested in receivers in this game. Barker is rolling with Cohen over Thompson as his 3rd down back of choice and as of now he's assuming Brandin Cooks will be cleared for takeoff after last week's concussion. Cleared for takeoff? Against the No Fly Zone Denver defense? Wokka wokka wokka!
Barker traded one more pick for one fewer player than Gary did this week and he's going to come up short in this matchup as well.
THE PICK: HB 70 - TNB 60
ASSTANNER (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (3-2)
Did you know that Isaiah Crowell is currently the #8 RB in the AFFL? Did you know he's reached that high despite having a 3.9 point game and a 0.3 point game? In fact, he's alternated great weeks with terrible ones, which is probably why Chris is benching him this week in favor of Jimmy Graham, who hasn't hit double digits all season. It's like when you pass a roulette table and the number tree shows five reds in a row. You slam $10 on the table because the next one has GOTTA be black, right?
It's going to be around 20 degrees in Denver and it might snow, conditions that Jared Goff has never played in before. It'll be interesting to see how McVay schemes weather. Zeke has a tough matchup against the Jags, and if I recall correctly, Jameis mainly ignored DeSean last season. Boyd, Gordon, and Graham could all have great games, or they could all be total flops. I do think Gordon breaks out in prime time this week, though.
Alex Smith plays at 1pm this week so he might be decent as opposed to the many, many times he's flopped in a night game. I think the only good night games he's had are last year's season opener against the Pats and the Fiesta Bowl against Pitt. Tim is going to try Aaron Jones again this week, even though Mike McCarthy has never shown an ability to be sensible, and if Ekeler doesn't catch a TD, he's got a crater game coming up.
I'd really like to complain in advance that either Bri or I are going to score 100+ and lose while Gary and Chris beat teams that don't even crack 80. Garbage. But congrats to Chris for winning his first game after he started selling off his players for picks.
THE PICK: AT 78 - SS 66
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-1) vs. WTTK? (3-2)
I guess I can probably say it now that it will never happen, but McCamey and I had a deal in pencil for Melvin Gordon involving my 2019 1st and Gio if he fell to 1-3. But he's won the last two weeks and I think it's fair to say that Melvin Gordon is untouchable right now. Although we might want to temper expectations for both him and Rivers this week since the Chargers are heading east for an early game in cooling weather against a Browns defense that has held fairly tight this season. I also don't love Mixon this week unless he catches some passes. As good as he's been, the Steelers are pretty decent at stopping the run so far.
It also remains to be seen if Kupp is cleared (for takeoff!) this week and I wouldn't be surprised if Ridley now goes 4 weeks without catching any touchdowns. It might not be a terrible idea to try Ron Jones in this matchup since Atlanta has been so generous with running back fantasy points. Davante Adams, yeah, I would start him against the Niners. That is a good idea, Bill.
Larry is...I mean, choose your own metaphor. Leaking oil. Taking on water. Bleeding out. Whatever. His point total went down for 4 straight weeks until he "bounced back" with 80 points last week. And yet, it does seem like every year one team cruises to a decent record even though they should be losing more often than not. It's usual an Albert. But Larry is from Crafton Heights and maybe that's close enough.
I don't love Robinson or Drake in the Bears/Dolphins game, although I think Rob has a better chance of hitting 10 points than Ken does. But this should be the week David Johnson finally breaks out and has a DJ-type game, Evans should be huge against Atlanta, and Jarvis is overdue for a big game as well.
The Rippers should have a slight lead by sundown Sunday that Mahomes extends to a huge lead against the Pats. Davante Adams will close the gap some on Monday night, but he doesn't have a 30-point game in him.
THE PICK: TWR 93 - WTTK 82
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (3-2)
A full 38% of players in this matchup are involved in the Steelers/Bengals game. Since that one will feature Road Ben and looming specter of horrific injury, this matchup should be ugly as well. Maybe Conner can grind out some yards and AJ can get over Joe Haden, but Ben, AB, JuJu, and Bos will all be below average. So who's left?
Well, Zach Ertz scored another TD last night and I have to confess that I am stunned by the number of touchdowns Scott has extracted from this guy in the last two seasons. James White should be great for Scott this week, but the effect of every yard and TD he gets will be diluted by Brady being on Meyers' team. Even if AP plays, he's at risk at being knocked out of the game, and Dallas should be able to keep Yeldon down a bit.
Meyers might regret being so invested in the AFC North if the Steelers game turns out to be 17-13, and Demaryius is completely cooked to completion at this point, so everything would fall to Brady and McCaffrey to save the day for him. I guess they probably will.
THE PICK: AH 88 - TDHAF 81
LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-4) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-4)
I was going to suggest that Barker hurry up and trade Keenan Allen so he can lose this game and get the inside track on next year's #1 pick, but then Alshon Jeffery caught 2 TDs. Barker also has more subtle tanking options at his disposal, such as starting the #5 overall pick, LeSean McCoy, each week. How could anybody claim you're tanking when you start a high pick just because he sucks?
Sanders has been solid but not spectacular since a great Week 1, and Keenan should struggle along with the entire Chargers passing game this week, but at least Gronk and Kirk should have good fun this week.
Semi is about to have his best game of the season after selling off his best players, which I'm pretty qualifies as irony. Jeffery already did his part and Jameis and Julian should have great games as well. Tyler Lockett has been surprisingly productive so far this year and the Oakland secondary isn't exactly a problem.
If Semi is still confused about how the intricacies of the AFFL work, I'd like to let him know that putting up 100+ points when you're trying to tank the season is not how you're supposed to do things around here. But I do offer him a hearty congrats for the sagacious of franchising an affordable defense to provide himself with maximal positional flexibility for his 2019 rebuilding season. It always gives me a little tingle when I can inspire others to wisdom.
THE PICK: LBJ 107 - RM 65
SEASON: 23-7
The AFFL trade market was like Hong Kong real estate this week with players being put on the block, offers coming through instantly, picks being tossed around, and bidding wars breaking out for even white wide receivers. Thing is, I don't think we're done with the action. There's still one more 1-4 team that's yet to sell anybody off for picks and he's got some pretty attractive pass catchers to offload. Not enough to keep him from being 1-5 by Tuesday, but still.
There's also the possibility that a couple of teams drop to 2-4 after losses this week and then want to jump into that sweet sellers market. EARN PICK$$$ NOW! WORK FROM HOME! ASK ME HOW!
I love the idea that 2 owners control nearly 50% of the first round and I love, love the idea that Chris could end up with 3-4 picks in the Top 24 if he really cleans house. If we can get Tim to trade a 1st for a player so we can avoid the traditional 10-minute draft delay, it'll be the best draft ever!
Except for the actual players.
The 2018 draft had one of the deepest first rounds in years. Through Week 5, the first round produced two Top-5 backs and four Top-15 receivers, plus Julio would be Top-10 if he had even a single touchdown. Oh, and Kelce, who's the #1 TE with enough points to be a Top-20 WR. Will the 2019 draft be as rich?
Uhh...maybe not. Looking through expiring contracts and unsigned players, I put together a quick and dirty first round mock.
1) Le'Veon Bell / Michael Thomas
2) Leonard Fournette
3) Adam Thielen
4) JuJu Smith-Schuster
5) AJ Green
6) Jordan Howard
7) Mark Ingram
8) Kenyan Drake
9) Jerick McKinnon
10) Aaron Jones
11) Benny Snell
12) Aaron Rodgers
The Bell/Thomas split is based on whomever Meyers ends up letting go after this season, assuming he doesn't trade Bell. A fair assumption since he literally hasn't made a trade since 2014. If you're wondering, on Aug 21, 2014, he traded a 3rd rounder to Gary for Roddy White and an 11th rounder to Bri for Ben Tate. Two trades in one day! He must still be recovering from exhaustion.
But let's get our focus back to 2018 for now. Oakland and Seattle play in London this week and this game is not moved up to 9am Eastern time because the NFL must think, get this, the hometown fans don't want to get up at 6am to watch their teams. How are the two teams getting to London? Why...
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (4-1)
Now THAT was a trade worth talking about! That is some action! When I first inquired about Tyreek, Semi said he was looking to blow the whole thing up after years of stagnation, one thing led to another, and the next morning I accidentally wore two left shoes home. It hurt but it was worth it!
After going heavy on running backs in the draft only to watch the NFL set new records for passing TDs and QB ratings in the first quarter of the season, I quickly pivoted and now Hill gives me the chance to roll out a 1-4 WR lineup with Saquon being the 1. I can dig it.
Oh, and to answer a rather impudent question from Wednesday, Rodgers had been a franchise player for 9 seasons, well above the threshold of 5, so I made him a 1/X on my roster.
Speaking of moves, Bri needs to make an emergency one this week because with Golden Tate's bye and TY Hilton's injury, he literally cannot start a legal lineup. There are plenty of streamable receivers out there to be sure, and Bri has the cap space, it's just a matter of finding a guy who's going to score in what's certain to be a shootout between the two highest-scoring teams in the league. One that could potentially determine a bye and who doesn't due to H2H results.
I emailed Bri Thursday afternoon just to get it on the record that I thought I needed 40 points total from Barkley and Beckham last night to have a chance in this game. Barkley did his part in a transcendent effort, but Odell (Eli, really) came up one TD short. Unfortunately for me, the Giants offense has all of 3 plays:
- WR screen
- 7-step dropback and get sacked
- Give it to Saquon and pray
A reminder that Pat Shurmer was 9-23 in two seasons as head coach of the Browns.
So if Saquon matches Gurley and Bri's WR pickup matches Odell, where does that leave the rest of the lineup? Carson and Coleman should wash as well, but Sony Michel is the wild card here. It's possible NE will run 50 times to keep the KC offense off the field and Michel will have a great game. It's also possible that KC will get up early and NE will have James White in the whole time as they try to catch up. Seems like Michel will at least get a TD, though.
I'd really like this to be the week when Bri starting the wrong QB finally costs him a game, but I think Aaron Rodgers' comeback attempt on Monday night will be exciting before ultimately falling short. I'd still start Cam, though.
THE PICK: TKSMB 118 - TDHGNM 111
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-3) vs. HEISENBERG (3-2)
Wednesday evening, I got an e-visit from my favorite Gary of them all, Conspiracy Gary. He accused me of having an arrangement in which I was either managing Semi's team or that we'd be swapping entire franchises next year or that we'd just keep trading players back and forth to each other and that if and when this arrangement came to light, the AFFL would explode and die. He then asked me to put the longevity of the league ahead of my "Richard Matthews encore."
Okay, first off, Dick Matthews was a great man and it's a damn shame the PC Police chased him out of this league just because he was a Trump man. The liberal mobs in this league gave him the #Kavanaugh treatment. #himtoo #maga
Second off, I thought the trade was pretty great all around, but I didn't realize it was so great that it would reach QAnon conspiracy levels. Now I like the deal even more.
Oh, the subject line of Gary's email was OFF THE RECORD, but as I told him, when I receive Trump-level deranged ramblings, my journalistic ethics dictate that I put those comments ON the record ASAP. To do otherwise would be a lie to myself and to the league.
After a little more digging, it turned out that the catalyst for this conspiracy in Gary's mind was last week when I discussed how Semi said he couldn't figure out the league. So Gary's fertile imagination, perhaps accelerated by Judge Jeannie, figured that Semi was struggling and therefore within one week I convinced him to hand over his franchise to me in a Rasputin-esque power grab. This was a more logical explanation than a bad team trading players to a good team for picks, something that happens multiple times a year and in fact happened three different times this week alone.
Folks, you cannot put a price on the amusement this league provides. I mean, technically the fees are a price, I guess, but you get so much value for that money!
Sticking with trades for a moment, how about that Thielen deal? It's not quite the golden deal Chris had that I referenced in the Review, but it was still a little more exorbitant than I expected for Thielen. Though he is the #1 WR right now and Barker can just draft a rookie kicker in the 7th round next year instead of the 6th.
In just 1 1/2 seasons, Adam Thielen's value has gone from my 9th round pick to Chris' 2nd round pick to Barker's 1st, 3rd, and 6th. That's some rise. Keep that in mind now I gave Kenny Golladay a cheap contract even though Gary says me overrating "weekly streamer receivers" is how I keep getting in trouble.
Anyway, would you like to talk about this matchup at some point? The holes in Gary's lineup really stick out when he doesn't have that oil painting of Alvin Kamara to hang over them. Newly-arrived Julio helps a bit and my promise to you is that this is the week he finally scores a touchdown. Corey Davis also goes straight into the starting lineup. Hopefully Mariota is able to grip a ball by Sunday so he can throw it to Davis. If not, maybe he can just dump it off to Dion Lewis, who also gets the start for Gary this week. I guess you've got to admire the moxie of a guy who's willing to start two players from one of the worst offenses in the league against a good defense.
Between Thielen, Corey Davis, Julio, Hopkins, and Baldwin, there is a lot of money invested in receivers in this game. Barker is rolling with Cohen over Thompson as his 3rd down back of choice and as of now he's assuming Brandin Cooks will be cleared for takeoff after last week's concussion. Cleared for takeoff? Against the No Fly Zone Denver defense? Wokka wokka wokka!
Barker traded one more pick for one fewer player than Gary did this week and he's going to come up short in this matchup as well.
THE PICK: HB 70 - TNB 60
ASSTANNER (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (3-2)
Did you know that Isaiah Crowell is currently the #8 RB in the AFFL? Did you know he's reached that high despite having a 3.9 point game and a 0.3 point game? In fact, he's alternated great weeks with terrible ones, which is probably why Chris is benching him this week in favor of Jimmy Graham, who hasn't hit double digits all season. It's like when you pass a roulette table and the number tree shows five reds in a row. You slam $10 on the table because the next one has GOTTA be black, right?
It's going to be around 20 degrees in Denver and it might snow, conditions that Jared Goff has never played in before. It'll be interesting to see how McVay schemes weather. Zeke has a tough matchup against the Jags, and if I recall correctly, Jameis mainly ignored DeSean last season. Boyd, Gordon, and Graham could all have great games, or they could all be total flops. I do think Gordon breaks out in prime time this week, though.
Alex Smith plays at 1pm this week so he might be decent as opposed to the many, many times he's flopped in a night game. I think the only good night games he's had are last year's season opener against the Pats and the Fiesta Bowl against Pitt. Tim is going to try Aaron Jones again this week, even though Mike McCarthy has never shown an ability to be sensible, and if Ekeler doesn't catch a TD, he's got a crater game coming up.
I'd really like to complain in advance that either Bri or I are going to score 100+ and lose while Gary and Chris beat teams that don't even crack 80. Garbage. But congrats to Chris for winning his first game after he started selling off his players for picks.
THE PICK: AT 78 - SS 66
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-1) vs. WTTK? (3-2)
I guess I can probably say it now that it will never happen, but McCamey and I had a deal in pencil for Melvin Gordon involving my 2019 1st and Gio if he fell to 1-3. But he's won the last two weeks and I think it's fair to say that Melvin Gordon is untouchable right now. Although we might want to temper expectations for both him and Rivers this week since the Chargers are heading east for an early game in cooling weather against a Browns defense that has held fairly tight this season. I also don't love Mixon this week unless he catches some passes. As good as he's been, the Steelers are pretty decent at stopping the run so far.
It also remains to be seen if Kupp is cleared (for takeoff!) this week and I wouldn't be surprised if Ridley now goes 4 weeks without catching any touchdowns. It might not be a terrible idea to try Ron Jones in this matchup since Atlanta has been so generous with running back fantasy points. Davante Adams, yeah, I would start him against the Niners. That is a good idea, Bill.
Larry is...I mean, choose your own metaphor. Leaking oil. Taking on water. Bleeding out. Whatever. His point total went down for 4 straight weeks until he "bounced back" with 80 points last week. And yet, it does seem like every year one team cruises to a decent record even though they should be losing more often than not. It's usual an Albert. But Larry is from Crafton Heights and maybe that's close enough.
I don't love Robinson or Drake in the Bears/Dolphins game, although I think Rob has a better chance of hitting 10 points than Ken does. But this should be the week David Johnson finally breaks out and has a DJ-type game, Evans should be huge against Atlanta, and Jarvis is overdue for a big game as well.
The Rippers should have a slight lead by sundown Sunday that Mahomes extends to a huge lead against the Pats. Davante Adams will close the gap some on Monday night, but he doesn't have a 30-point game in him.
THE PICK: TWR 93 - WTTK 82
TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (3-2)
A full 38% of players in this matchup are involved in the Steelers/Bengals game. Since that one will feature Road Ben and looming specter of horrific injury, this matchup should be ugly as well. Maybe Conner can grind out some yards and AJ can get over Joe Haden, but Ben, AB, JuJu, and Bos will all be below average. So who's left?
Well, Zach Ertz scored another TD last night and I have to confess that I am stunned by the number of touchdowns Scott has extracted from this guy in the last two seasons. James White should be great for Scott this week, but the effect of every yard and TD he gets will be diluted by Brady being on Meyers' team. Even if AP plays, he's at risk at being knocked out of the game, and Dallas should be able to keep Yeldon down a bit.
Meyers might regret being so invested in the AFC North if the Steelers game turns out to be 17-13, and Demaryius is completely cooked to completion at this point, so everything would fall to Brady and McCaffrey to save the day for him. I guess they probably will.
THE PICK: AH 88 - TDHAF 81
LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-4) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-4)
I was going to suggest that Barker hurry up and trade Keenan Allen so he can lose this game and get the inside track on next year's #1 pick, but then Alshon Jeffery caught 2 TDs. Barker also has more subtle tanking options at his disposal, such as starting the #5 overall pick, LeSean McCoy, each week. How could anybody claim you're tanking when you start a high pick just because he sucks?
Sanders has been solid but not spectacular since a great Week 1, and Keenan should struggle along with the entire Chargers passing game this week, but at least Gronk and Kirk should have good fun this week.
Semi is about to have his best game of the season after selling off his best players, which I'm pretty qualifies as irony. Jeffery already did his part and Jameis and Julian should have great games as well. Tyler Lockett has been surprisingly productive so far this year and the Oakland secondary isn't exactly a problem.
If Semi is still confused about how the intricacies of the AFFL work, I'd like to let him know that putting up 100+ points when you're trying to tank the season is not how you're supposed to do things around here. But I do offer him a hearty congrats for the sagacious of franchising an affordable defense to provide himself with maximal positional flexibility for his 2019 rebuilding season. It always gives me a little tingle when I can inspire others to wisdom.
THE PICK: LBJ 107 - RM 65
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
AFFL Week 5 Review
In the Week 3 Review, I touched on the superiority of the Dead Drop division by noting we had the most points of any division and also the best teams. I received a tiny bit of scuff on the best division claim at the time, but since then the DDD has gone 6-2 in interdivisional play and extended their points gap on the other two divisions from 66 and 87 points, respectively, to 124 and 184 points. Like I said, we play big boy football in these part. DDD? More like dropping DDTs! On your heads!
On another note, congratulations to last week's new contract recipients Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, Robert Woods, Kareem Hunt (FP), Pat Mahomes, James Conner, Nick Chubb, and Ron Gronkowski.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 115 - RUSSELLMANIA 47.7
The #1 team in Points For and the #1 team in your hearts, The Dude Has Got No Mercy showed none to Brian Barker this week. When my score suddenly shot up 12 points early Sunday and I saw that Odell and Barkley both scored touchdowns at the same time, I did a double take like Bugs Bunny. All rubbing my eyes in big circles, blinking hard, hitting myself on the head with a shoe because I thought I was going crazy. Then I realize Odell got credit for a PaTD, and it ended up being nicer than any ball Eli has thrown this year.
I said Kenny Golladay was going to score 19 points this week, and I offer my sincerest apologies to you because he only scored 16. I will try to do better in the future.
The high point of Brian's 2018 season was winning the draft lottery. Since then, he traded Saquon for McCoy, Gronk, and Cooper and watched as Barkley scored 25 points this week to 19 points combined for the other 3. On the season, Barkley has 88.20 points compared to 94.20 points for the other 3. He's lost Rex Burkhead and now Jay Ajayi to IR. He benched Shady the first time he posted double digits this season. Cooper kept his 1 catch per game average against the Chargers going. He's lost games by 66 and 67 points this season, 2 of the worst 3 losses in franchise history. Since posting 94 points in a Week 1 win, he's lost 4 straight while averaging 54 ppg, including 2 games with 47 points. He's the lowest-scoring team in the league by 68 points. Now he has to ride this out for the next 7 weeks and hope he can win the 2019 lottery for the rights to draft Leonard Fournette's hamstring problems. His only goal, I suppose, is to try and beat Scott's 1-13 record from 2015. It's good to have something to strive for.
ANIMAL HOUSE 101.6 - HEISENBERG 47.5
In Week 3, I predicted that Animal House, the #1 scoring team at the time, would post 77 points. They posted 80. This week, I predicted that Heisenberg, the #1 scoring team at the time, would post 68 points. They posted 47. Never doubt my powers.
Matt Ryan did indeed struggle outdoors as I suspected, as did Hyde, and Gary now has the Saints' Week 6 bye to wonder if Mark Ingram is going to steal opportunities and points from Kamara every week or if last night was just a fluke. Doug Baldwin, who costs $1.63, somehow had a single receiving yard in a 33-31 game. One yard. 0.1 points. The only source of slight relief for Gary is that his entire roster was terrible. Only his two QBs broke double digits so it's not like he blew this game by leaving 70 points on the bench. I haven't seen such a poor performance from Gary since he posted 55 points in the 2017 Albert Bowl.
James Conner did indeed get back to his Week 1 form as I expected, and he now leads the NFL in missed tackles, which seems a little surprising. Demaryius had his first good game of the season, although he was on Meyers' bench. Not that it really mattered. By the way, as if things aren't good enough for Animal House already, he is the guy that owns Mark Ingram if you've been wondering. When/if Bell comes back, Meyers is going to have a tough time figuring out which great players to start every week. It's too bad he never trades with anybody, because he's in a great position to make a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade to move depth for another superstar.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 103.4 - ASSTANNER 73.4
Bri came in and finished the job that I couldn't, ending Chris' season. He once again blew the Cam/DeShaun start but it still has not cost him a game. Mostly because Gurley put up 29 points with only 77 rushing yards. He had 3 TDs from a combined 9 yards! Those were worth 2 points per yard!
Golden Tate didn't do as well as expected against the Packers, but Kelce did better than expected against the Jags, so I guess it balances out.
Chris left Isaiah Crowell's 29 points on the bench, as well as Josh Gordon's 11 points, and technically he would've won if he'd started those two over Henry and Boyd, though it's tough to claim anybody else would've made those lineup moves this week.
Asstanner, Russellmania, and Little Baby Jesus are all 1-4 now and let me tell from poking around a little bit via email yesterday, the vultures are circling and ready to pick the meat off of these three carcasses. Trade talks are HOT right now and it's possible these three teams own 75% of the first round picks in 2019. My dream of seeing Chris with a ton of picks for a change is close to becoming a reality. Speaking of, I'm not going to get into details, but Chris has an insane offer on the table that I would've accepted so enthusiastically I would've sprained my thumb. The whole league is in a tense drug deal going bad standoff right now and as soon as the first shot rings out, things are going to get wild in a hurry.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 80.1 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 71.1
Tim only needed 4 points from Alex Smith to get the win last night and it...uh...took a little longer than expected. It seemed like we were on the way to an all-time choke job until Smith finally ran in a TD in the 3rd quarter to clinch the win for Tim and unofficially officially end Semi's season. Robert Woods managed to put 14.5 points after Kupp and Cooks went out with concussion, and part of that was 53 rushing yards somehow.
Tim is now 3-2 despite only being the 9th-best scoring team in the league. Chris has 45 points more than Tim but is 1-4.
Aaron Rodgers tried to save Semi's season with his best game of the year, but Rodgers can't do anything about Lindsay, Julio, Edelman, Fuller, and Corey Davis all posting single digits. Julio only had 62 yards on like 3 targets, which...look. How do you look at the Steelers secondary coming into that game and not just force the ball to Julio over and over and over? Why are you trying to run a normal offense, especially when you're down early? Some of these coaches just can't be helped.
WTTK? 111.1 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 110.1
HHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MYYYYYYYYYY GOOOOOOOODDDDDDDD!
Oh my god.
Guys.
You guys.
I emailed McCamey Monday afternoon to see if he was going to be a buyer or a seller after he lost this week. He replied that he was going to be a buyer and that he hadn't actually lost yet. I chuckled gently, amused by his child-like optimism. Surely the great Adrian Peterson would be able to score 5.3 points on Monday night and clinch the win for Scott. It was only a matter if it happened in the first quarter or the second quarter. Then Alex Smith opened up AP on a swing pass that almost ended up with his left ACL in the mezzanine, before he separated his shoulder later in the game. Not that you would've known that happened since the MNF was only talking about Drew Brees for 3 hours last night.
Ben and AB did finally connect this week, although it took Ben mysteriously missing AB in stride 3-4 times in the first half before they hit a deep ball in the second half. TJ Yeldon also did indeed have a great game with 18 points against the Chiefs, James White scored his FIFTH touchdown of the year, and even Zach Ertz had 17 points.
McCamey got a late TD from Mixon in which he dodged 3-4 guys, a TD from Kupp before the concussion, a late TD from Davante Adams, and even a defensive TD from the Dolphins. All of those TDs created enough of a cushion that McCamey was able to withstand Ridley's dry day.
Scott has the 3rd-highest Points Against in the league, a 2-3 record, and 3 of the highest-scoring teams in the league on his schedule in the next 3 weeks. Simply a tragedy. Seeing him fall to 2-6 before Leonard Fournette returns from injury would be devastating.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 80.5 - THE NIGHT BOYS 61.2
Larry has the 8th-most points in the league and yet is tied for the best record at 4-1. David Johnson finally had a good game fantasy-wise. His 55 rushing yards weren't exactly scintillating. Kenyan Drake was useful one more time. Taywan Taylor only had 2 points, but I was expecting 0 from him, so 2 is actually decent. Pat Mahomes had his worst game of the year with only 13 points, and he saved that with a rushing TD, but none of it mattered because Barker had 5 different players have less than 1 point.
Now, in fairness, the Bears and Tarik Cohen had a bye, so their zeroes are defensible, but Rashaad Penny didn't have a single carry, Brandin Cooks got concussed before he got a catch, and Vance McDonald had 6 yards on 1 catch. That DTD and 15.5 points from the Cardinals defense was just totally wasted.
Barker is right on the line between buying to save his season and selling to give up. The problem is, DeAndre Hopkins is the only player he has that's worth selling. Brandin Cooks can't be moved with his new FP deal, Chris Thompson could be traded but not for much, and if Penny's 1/3 contract isn't the worst post-draft deal this year it's only because Royce Freeman's 1/2 deal is. I guess the Bears DST could be traded as a bye week fill-in. Barker should buy. He should give up his first 5 picks next years to bring in 5 new players and get after this thing.
Larry should be doing the same.
On another note, congratulations to last week's new contract recipients Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, Robert Woods, Kareem Hunt (FP), Pat Mahomes, James Conner, Nick Chubb, and Ron Gronkowski.
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 115 - RUSSELLMANIA 47.7
The #1 team in Points For and the #1 team in your hearts, The Dude Has Got No Mercy showed none to Brian Barker this week. When my score suddenly shot up 12 points early Sunday and I saw that Odell and Barkley both scored touchdowns at the same time, I did a double take like Bugs Bunny. All rubbing my eyes in big circles, blinking hard, hitting myself on the head with a shoe because I thought I was going crazy. Then I realize Odell got credit for a PaTD, and it ended up being nicer than any ball Eli has thrown this year.
I said Kenny Golladay was going to score 19 points this week, and I offer my sincerest apologies to you because he only scored 16. I will try to do better in the future.
The high point of Brian's 2018 season was winning the draft lottery. Since then, he traded Saquon for McCoy, Gronk, and Cooper and watched as Barkley scored 25 points this week to 19 points combined for the other 3. On the season, Barkley has 88.20 points compared to 94.20 points for the other 3. He's lost Rex Burkhead and now Jay Ajayi to IR. He benched Shady the first time he posted double digits this season. Cooper kept his 1 catch per game average against the Chargers going. He's lost games by 66 and 67 points this season, 2 of the worst 3 losses in franchise history. Since posting 94 points in a Week 1 win, he's lost 4 straight while averaging 54 ppg, including 2 games with 47 points. He's the lowest-scoring team in the league by 68 points. Now he has to ride this out for the next 7 weeks and hope he can win the 2019 lottery for the rights to draft Leonard Fournette's hamstring problems. His only goal, I suppose, is to try and beat Scott's 1-13 record from 2015. It's good to have something to strive for.
ANIMAL HOUSE 101.6 - HEISENBERG 47.5
In Week 3, I predicted that Animal House, the #1 scoring team at the time, would post 77 points. They posted 80. This week, I predicted that Heisenberg, the #1 scoring team at the time, would post 68 points. They posted 47. Never doubt my powers.
Matt Ryan did indeed struggle outdoors as I suspected, as did Hyde, and Gary now has the Saints' Week 6 bye to wonder if Mark Ingram is going to steal opportunities and points from Kamara every week or if last night was just a fluke. Doug Baldwin, who costs $1.63, somehow had a single receiving yard in a 33-31 game. One yard. 0.1 points. The only source of slight relief for Gary is that his entire roster was terrible. Only his two QBs broke double digits so it's not like he blew this game by leaving 70 points on the bench. I haven't seen such a poor performance from Gary since he posted 55 points in the 2017 Albert Bowl.
James Conner did indeed get back to his Week 1 form as I expected, and he now leads the NFL in missed tackles, which seems a little surprising. Demaryius had his first good game of the season, although he was on Meyers' bench. Not that it really mattered. By the way, as if things aren't good enough for Animal House already, he is the guy that owns Mark Ingram if you've been wondering. When/if Bell comes back, Meyers is going to have a tough time figuring out which great players to start every week. It's too bad he never trades with anybody, because he's in a great position to make a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade to move depth for another superstar.
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 103.4 - ASSTANNER 73.4
Bri came in and finished the job that I couldn't, ending Chris' season. He once again blew the Cam/DeShaun start but it still has not cost him a game. Mostly because Gurley put up 29 points with only 77 rushing yards. He had 3 TDs from a combined 9 yards! Those were worth 2 points per yard!
Golden Tate didn't do as well as expected against the Packers, but Kelce did better than expected against the Jags, so I guess it balances out.
Chris left Isaiah Crowell's 29 points on the bench, as well as Josh Gordon's 11 points, and technically he would've won if he'd started those two over Henry and Boyd, though it's tough to claim anybody else would've made those lineup moves this week.
Asstanner, Russellmania, and Little Baby Jesus are all 1-4 now and let me tell from poking around a little bit via email yesterday, the vultures are circling and ready to pick the meat off of these three carcasses. Trade talks are HOT right now and it's possible these three teams own 75% of the first round picks in 2019. My dream of seeing Chris with a ton of picks for a change is close to becoming a reality. Speaking of, I'm not going to get into details, but Chris has an insane offer on the table that I would've accepted so enthusiastically I would've sprained my thumb. The whole league is in a tense drug deal going bad standoff right now and as soon as the first shot rings out, things are going to get wild in a hurry.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 80.1 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 71.1
Tim only needed 4 points from Alex Smith to get the win last night and it...uh...took a little longer than expected. It seemed like we were on the way to an all-time choke job until Smith finally ran in a TD in the 3rd quarter to clinch the win for Tim and unofficially officially end Semi's season. Robert Woods managed to put 14.5 points after Kupp and Cooks went out with concussion, and part of that was 53 rushing yards somehow.
Tim is now 3-2 despite only being the 9th-best scoring team in the league. Chris has 45 points more than Tim but is 1-4.
Aaron Rodgers tried to save Semi's season with his best game of the year, but Rodgers can't do anything about Lindsay, Julio, Edelman, Fuller, and Corey Davis all posting single digits. Julio only had 62 yards on like 3 targets, which...look. How do you look at the Steelers secondary coming into that game and not just force the ball to Julio over and over and over? Why are you trying to run a normal offense, especially when you're down early? Some of these coaches just can't be helped.
WTTK? 111.1 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 110.1
HHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MYYYYYYYYYY GOOOOOOOODDDDDDDD!
Oh my god.
Guys.
You guys.
I emailed McCamey Monday afternoon to see if he was going to be a buyer or a seller after he lost this week. He replied that he was going to be a buyer and that he hadn't actually lost yet. I chuckled gently, amused by his child-like optimism. Surely the great Adrian Peterson would be able to score 5.3 points on Monday night and clinch the win for Scott. It was only a matter if it happened in the first quarter or the second quarter. Then Alex Smith opened up AP on a swing pass that almost ended up with his left ACL in the mezzanine, before he separated his shoulder later in the game. Not that you would've known that happened since the MNF was only talking about Drew Brees for 3 hours last night.
Ben and AB did finally connect this week, although it took Ben mysteriously missing AB in stride 3-4 times in the first half before they hit a deep ball in the second half. TJ Yeldon also did indeed have a great game with 18 points against the Chiefs, James White scored his FIFTH touchdown of the year, and even Zach Ertz had 17 points.
McCamey got a late TD from Mixon in which he dodged 3-4 guys, a TD from Kupp before the concussion, a late TD from Davante Adams, and even a defensive TD from the Dolphins. All of those TDs created enough of a cushion that McCamey was able to withstand Ridley's dry day.
Scott has the 3rd-highest Points Against in the league, a 2-3 record, and 3 of the highest-scoring teams in the league on his schedule in the next 3 weeks. Simply a tragedy. Seeing him fall to 2-6 before Leonard Fournette returns from injury would be devastating.
THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 80.5 - THE NIGHT BOYS 61.2
Larry has the 8th-most points in the league and yet is tied for the best record at 4-1. David Johnson finally had a good game fantasy-wise. His 55 rushing yards weren't exactly scintillating. Kenyan Drake was useful one more time. Taywan Taylor only had 2 points, but I was expecting 0 from him, so 2 is actually decent. Pat Mahomes had his worst game of the year with only 13 points, and he saved that with a rushing TD, but none of it mattered because Barker had 5 different players have less than 1 point.
Now, in fairness, the Bears and Tarik Cohen had a bye, so their zeroes are defensible, but Rashaad Penny didn't have a single carry, Brandin Cooks got concussed before he got a catch, and Vance McDonald had 6 yards on 1 catch. That DTD and 15.5 points from the Cardinals defense was just totally wasted.
Barker is right on the line between buying to save his season and selling to give up. The problem is, DeAndre Hopkins is the only player he has that's worth selling. Brandin Cooks can't be moved with his new FP deal, Chris Thompson could be traded but not for much, and if Penny's 1/3 contract isn't the worst post-draft deal this year it's only because Royce Freeman's 1/2 deal is. I guess the Bears DST could be traded as a bye week fill-in. Barker should buy. He should give up his first 5 picks next years to bring in 5 new players and get after this thing.
Larry should be doing the same.
Friday, October 5, 2018
AFFL Week 5 Preview
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 18-6
After picking up Jameis for Brees' bye next week, I got pretty tight up against the cap, at least when you figure in that I'll need bye week defense and kicker pickups at some point. So I checked the schedule to see if I could get away with empty slots in those particular weeks, and that's when I noticed that Harry Butker's (Hairy butt!) bye comes in Week 12.
The double week.
And here's a fun and funny thing about Week 12 in the year of our Yahweh 5779. Only two NFL teams have a bye that week, they just happen to be the two best offenses in the league, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams.
It's a long, long way until Week 12 and we don't have any idea what will happen between now and then with injuries, W/L records, divisions, etc y et al. But some teams are going to head into the crucial double matchup with a chance to either clinch or blow their division without some key players.
No Todd Gurley.
No Pat Mahomes.
No Tyreek Hill.
No Cooper Kupp.
No Travis Kelce.
No Robert Woods.
No Brandin Cooks.
No Jared Goff.
No Rams DST.
No Kareem Hunt.
Here's a serious, only slightly hyperbolic question. Do you try to trade any of those guys to get somebody who won't miss the double game, whether now or in Week 9 when you're scratching for first place? Obviously contracts and who's locked up for 2019 and the playoffs are bigger factors, but still. That's a big hole on a weekend that goes a long way to deciding who gets byes and who gets a buh-bye.
But that's a long way off. That offense bathed in the golden light is still a go this week and Todd Gurley will have Bri saying...
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-3)
I'm aware that for some reason the capsules for my own games are much longer and more detailed than for the other games for whatever reason. Is it because I always do my game first and have more energy up front? Possibly. Is it simple vanity? Impossible. That's not going to the case this week, though, because there's not much interesting going on in this one.
Let's see...can we find anything interesting here? Well, Barker briefly had Shady in the lineup over Gronk before Gronk's injury status cleared up on Wednesday. The 7.5 Gronk posted might seem disappointing, but it's probably 3x what Shady will post. Amari Cooper had 2 catches for 17 yards combined in both games against the Chargers last year. That's kinda interesting.
The most interesting angle might be that I am in genuine danger of losing two straight games to teams that were a combined 1-6 coming into our matchup and falling 2.5 games back in the division. That would be a real problem.
The main issues I have this week is that Odell has yet to break out, and I'm going to have one iffy spot in my lineup whether I start Freeman, Collins, or Alf. Then again, Odell complained today that the Giants refuse to throw it more than 20 yards in one try and Vance Joseph said that Denver needs to get Freeman more carries, so maybe some squeaky wheel treatment is just what I need.
Kenny Golladay, who is extremely underrated and all of you should have been sniffing around him with trade offers weeks ago, will have 19 points this week. And Drew Brees is going to hit two huge milestones at home Monday night: becoming the NFL's all-time passing yards leader and finishing off the third Dude win of the season.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RM 74
HEISENBERG (3-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-2)
It's possible that Sony Michel's first half TD that was neither called a TD nor reviewed before Brady pulled off a 1/4-yard TD sneak could swing TWO games this week. This could potentially be seen as petty of me, but I am extremely rooting for Gary to lose because he's going against that bonus Brady TD and Bri Williams to lose because he lost a Michel TD.
Though, honestly, I expect that one TD to be just one factor in Gary's loss this week. Meyers averaged 120 points in the first two weeks, but only 69 points in the following fortnight. I suspect his true nature is closer to the former than the latter, as this latest go will prove. Brady got back to his old self last night, Conner should get close to his old (Week 1 vs. Cle) self against the Falcons, CMC should have a lot of fun against the Giants, and JuJu, Boz, and the Rams should all post points this week.
By the way, on MNF, did everybody else notice that JuJu's high school picture was labeled John Smith, Jr? The kids can call him JoJu!
Matt Ryan should go off against the Steelers, but we've seen problems with NFC South QBs crossing the Mason-Dixon line and playing outside. Like, say, Drew Brees last week. Ingram will take some action away from Kamara so he'll only post 20 points instead of 30, and I don't like Carlos Hyde against Baltimore one bit, buddy. The sole effect of the Baldwin/Hilton trade this season so far has been freeing up contract spots. Nothing has made its way to the field.
With Freeman back and healthy, I'd fire him up against the Steelers instead of a dinged-up Lynch, but really, what is it going to matter this week?
THE PICK: AH 121 - HB 68
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-1) vs. ASSTANNER (1-3)
Michel did score a TD that counted late in the game and Bri is playing Chris this week, so that Brady/Michel deal isn't going to make a damn bit of difference in either game. It doesn't add up to a hill of beans! Nuts to this.
Bri is going with Cam for the first time this season, which means he'll somehow only post 14 when he should have like 24 in this game. He's also correctly put Matt Breida in after MIKE DAVIS tore up the Cardinals rush defense last week. (Note: Picture Karl Malone saying MIKE DAVIS the same way he said MEL TURPIN.)
Gurley will be as good as usual, and Golden Tate should get some against the Packers secondary. The only ever-so-slight blemish is Travis Kelce, who could be contained by Jacksonville, but he is literally Bri's only option in that spot unless he hits the FA pool. I can't imagine Chris has him worried enough to do such a thing.
By the way, Chris is STILL holding on to Dez Bryant and his $1.20 contract! It's Week 5! The Pats traded for Josh Gordon and it's taken them 3 weeks to throw to him 4 times in a game. Dez could sign tomorrow and the best case scenario is 27 yards in Week 9. PS, he's not signing tomorrow.
I do like DeDe Westbrook this week, though. While I'm in truth-telling mode, Wentz and Boyd aren't too bad, either.
THE PICK: TKSMB 111 - AT 91
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-3)
Semi and I were having some minor trade talk, a little light petting if you will, and he eventually confessed that he has not yet figured out the AFFL. He said/claimed/boasted that he's usually top 3 in his other leagues but can never get it going here. I wanted to share a nifty tip with him to help turn things around, but...I don't have one.
The best I could figure out is that because of the contracts and the way superstars get locked up for a long time, you need to take more chances in this league. Those chances could be trading picks for a star, signing a rookie to a 3-yr deal, drafting a bunch of backs and hoping one tree bears fruit, or living your entire life as Tim, but you need to take chances because you aren't getting Gurley or Zeke in the draft outside of their rookie years. (And, technically, both of those guys were picked up as college FA by Chris, so I guess you're never drafting them.)
Now, chances imply an influence of luck, and the chances you take need to pan out for sure. But at the same time, a usual group of 4-5 owners is competitive every year while others bob up and down on waves they can't control. I'm one of those perennial contenders and even I'm not sure what the secret is.
This league is more like poker than average leagues, I suppose, and certain owners are better at setting themselves up for positive outcomes more often than others. But sometimes a weird river card hits and some moron that called all the way down with 9-4 suited gets paid off over pocket QQ.
Anyway, as far as this game goes, CBS is predicting only 14 points for Julio this week. They must be assuming his TD drought will live on and he'll rack up 140 yards. And that's still conservative! Artie Burns is going to be on Julio and he's 7 inches shorter and 77 times worse. Julio's projection should be 54 points.
Going back to the poker analogy for a second, this week Tim is holding the QQ and Semi has the 9-4. Maybe even 7-4.
THE PICK: SS 94 - LBJ 71
WTTK? (2-2) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-2)
A second part of that aborted trade agreement I had with McCamey was Gio Bernard, who is now out 2-4 weeks with a knee problem as Mixon returns from his own 2-4 week knee problem. I'm not too sure what happened with my trade curse powers on that one. Maybe they were activated once we agreed verbally and Gio was going to get hurt from there? I guess that's what I get for trusting this monkey paw I got from a bizarre Moroccan bazaar.
Ben and AB should put any weird gossip on hold for 6 days with a huge game this week, and Yeldon should do well against that Chiefs defense that must give up 50 TDs in practice. I continue to be surprised by James White serving as a more consistent, less dynamic replacement for Dion Lewis. I'm not going to believe in AP ever again so I guess I'll have to be wrong if he has a good game this week, and why trade for Kelvin Benjamin if you won't start him over Zach Ertz? Actually, the second half of that statement on Benjamin is probably unneeded.
I think this is the week Calvin Ridley breaks his TD streak simply because every other Falcon will score this week. Also, Davante Adams injuring his calf on Wednesday doesn't bode well for what should be a good matchup. With Gio out and Mixon sure to get all the action in the world, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to start Mixon over Davante. Or maybe Kupp. Or Kerryon until the Lions show they know how to use a good back in a good matchup. Point is, Mixon needs to be in this lineup.
I'm going to assume rational coaching from McCamey gets Mixon in the lineup and that it will be very frustrating for Scott to watch AP head to the bench for Chris Thompson as the Skins try to catch up to the Saints on Monday night.
THE PICK: WTTK 104 - TDHAF 98
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-2) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS
The Night Boys lost in Week 1 when they scored 45 points and they won in Week 3 when their opponent scored 47 points. Larry lost last week when he scored 69 points and won in Week 3 when his opponent scored 66. Another commonality is that both of these dropped their incredibly disappointing franchise QBs this season.
Larry is going to be without Dalvin yet again this week, and I'm pretty sure that missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury is not what he had in mind when he signed that contract last season. Mike Evans is on a bye so Taywan Taylor gets the start, which...I mean...it's Taywan Taylor. And if David Johnson can't post 20 points against this Niner defense, it is just never going to happen for him this season.
As for Barker, I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but Andy Dalton should be a nice option this week.
When Larry sits down for his traditional Sunday roast with Yorkshire pudding on Sunday evening, he'll have his inner optimist going, trying to figure out scenarios in which DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Thompson don't complete the Night Boys comeback on SNF and MNF. But they don't call this team The Night Boys for nothin'! See, because they will finish this off during the night games this week? Night boys. Night. Games. Night?
Anyway, it'll take about 5 minutes of game action for Larry's much more robust internal pessimist to get going. These two teams are currently riding parallel, inverse escalators. Just a question of whether they high five each other in passing.
THE PICK: TNB 76 - TWR 60
SEASON: 18-6
After picking up Jameis for Brees' bye next week, I got pretty tight up against the cap, at least when you figure in that I'll need bye week defense and kicker pickups at some point. So I checked the schedule to see if I could get away with empty slots in those particular weeks, and that's when I noticed that Harry Butker's (Hairy butt!) bye comes in Week 12.
The double week.
And here's a fun and funny thing about Week 12 in the year of our Yahweh 5779. Only two NFL teams have a bye that week, they just happen to be the two best offenses in the league, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams.
It's a long, long way until Week 12 and we don't have any idea what will happen between now and then with injuries, W/L records, divisions, etc y et al. But some teams are going to head into the crucial double matchup with a chance to either clinch or blow their division without some key players.
No Todd Gurley.
No Pat Mahomes.
No Tyreek Hill.
No Cooper Kupp.
No Travis Kelce.
No Robert Woods.
No Brandin Cooks.
No Jared Goff.
No Rams DST.
No Kareem Hunt.
Here's a serious, only slightly hyperbolic question. Do you try to trade any of those guys to get somebody who won't miss the double game, whether now or in Week 9 when you're scratching for first place? Obviously contracts and who's locked up for 2019 and the playoffs are bigger factors, but still. That's a big hole on a weekend that goes a long way to deciding who gets byes and who gets a buh-bye.
But that's a long way off. That offense bathed in the golden light is still a go this week and Todd Gurley will have Bri saying...
THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-3)
I'm aware that for some reason the capsules for my own games are much longer and more detailed than for the other games for whatever reason. Is it because I always do my game first and have more energy up front? Possibly. Is it simple vanity? Impossible. That's not going to the case this week, though, because there's not much interesting going on in this one.
Let's see...can we find anything interesting here? Well, Barker briefly had Shady in the lineup over Gronk before Gronk's injury status cleared up on Wednesday. The 7.5 Gronk posted might seem disappointing, but it's probably 3x what Shady will post. Amari Cooper had 2 catches for 17 yards combined in both games against the Chargers last year. That's kinda interesting.
The most interesting angle might be that I am in genuine danger of losing two straight games to teams that were a combined 1-6 coming into our matchup and falling 2.5 games back in the division. That would be a real problem.
The main issues I have this week is that Odell has yet to break out, and I'm going to have one iffy spot in my lineup whether I start Freeman, Collins, or Alf. Then again, Odell complained today that the Giants refuse to throw it more than 20 yards in one try and Vance Joseph said that Denver needs to get Freeman more carries, so maybe some squeaky wheel treatment is just what I need.
Kenny Golladay, who is extremely underrated and all of you should have been sniffing around him with trade offers weeks ago, will have 19 points this week. And Drew Brees is going to hit two huge milestones at home Monday night: becoming the NFL's all-time passing yards leader and finishing off the third Dude win of the season.
THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RM 74
HEISENBERG (3-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-2)
It's possible that Sony Michel's first half TD that was neither called a TD nor reviewed before Brady pulled off a 1/4-yard TD sneak could swing TWO games this week. This could potentially be seen as petty of me, but I am extremely rooting for Gary to lose because he's going against that bonus Brady TD and Bri Williams to lose because he lost a Michel TD.
Though, honestly, I expect that one TD to be just one factor in Gary's loss this week. Meyers averaged 120 points in the first two weeks, but only 69 points in the following fortnight. I suspect his true nature is closer to the former than the latter, as this latest go will prove. Brady got back to his old self last night, Conner should get close to his old (Week 1 vs. Cle) self against the Falcons, CMC should have a lot of fun against the Giants, and JuJu, Boz, and the Rams should all post points this week.
By the way, on MNF, did everybody else notice that JuJu's high school picture was labeled John Smith, Jr? The kids can call him JoJu!
Matt Ryan should go off against the Steelers, but we've seen problems with NFC South QBs crossing the Mason-Dixon line and playing outside. Like, say, Drew Brees last week. Ingram will take some action away from Kamara so he'll only post 20 points instead of 30, and I don't like Carlos Hyde against Baltimore one bit, buddy. The sole effect of the Baldwin/Hilton trade this season so far has been freeing up contract spots. Nothing has made its way to the field.
With Freeman back and healthy, I'd fire him up against the Steelers instead of a dinged-up Lynch, but really, what is it going to matter this week?
THE PICK: AH 121 - HB 68
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-1) vs. ASSTANNER (1-3)
Michel did score a TD that counted late in the game and Bri is playing Chris this week, so that Brady/Michel deal isn't going to make a damn bit of difference in either game. It doesn't add up to a hill of beans! Nuts to this.
Bri is going with Cam for the first time this season, which means he'll somehow only post 14 when he should have like 24 in this game. He's also correctly put Matt Breida in after MIKE DAVIS tore up the Cardinals rush defense last week. (Note: Picture Karl Malone saying MIKE DAVIS the same way he said MEL TURPIN.)
Gurley will be as good as usual, and Golden Tate should get some against the Packers secondary. The only ever-so-slight blemish is Travis Kelce, who could be contained by Jacksonville, but he is literally Bri's only option in that spot unless he hits the FA pool. I can't imagine Chris has him worried enough to do such a thing.
By the way, Chris is STILL holding on to Dez Bryant and his $1.20 contract! It's Week 5! The Pats traded for Josh Gordon and it's taken them 3 weeks to throw to him 4 times in a game. Dez could sign tomorrow and the best case scenario is 27 yards in Week 9. PS, he's not signing tomorrow.
I do like DeDe Westbrook this week, though. While I'm in truth-telling mode, Wentz and Boyd aren't too bad, either.
THE PICK: TKSMB 111 - AT 91
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-3)
Semi and I were having some minor trade talk, a little light petting if you will, and he eventually confessed that he has not yet figured out the AFFL. He said/claimed/boasted that he's usually top 3 in his other leagues but can never get it going here. I wanted to share a nifty tip with him to help turn things around, but...I don't have one.
The best I could figure out is that because of the contracts and the way superstars get locked up for a long time, you need to take more chances in this league. Those chances could be trading picks for a star, signing a rookie to a 3-yr deal, drafting a bunch of backs and hoping one tree bears fruit, or living your entire life as Tim, but you need to take chances because you aren't getting Gurley or Zeke in the draft outside of their rookie years. (And, technically, both of those guys were picked up as college FA by Chris, so I guess you're never drafting them.)
Now, chances imply an influence of luck, and the chances you take need to pan out for sure. But at the same time, a usual group of 4-5 owners is competitive every year while others bob up and down on waves they can't control. I'm one of those perennial contenders and even I'm not sure what the secret is.
This league is more like poker than average leagues, I suppose, and certain owners are better at setting themselves up for positive outcomes more often than others. But sometimes a weird river card hits and some moron that called all the way down with 9-4 suited gets paid off over pocket QQ.
Anyway, as far as this game goes, CBS is predicting only 14 points for Julio this week. They must be assuming his TD drought will live on and he'll rack up 140 yards. And that's still conservative! Artie Burns is going to be on Julio and he's 7 inches shorter and 77 times worse. Julio's projection should be 54 points.
Going back to the poker analogy for a second, this week Tim is holding the QQ and Semi has the 9-4. Maybe even 7-4.
THE PICK: SS 94 - LBJ 71
WTTK? (2-2) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-2)
A second part of that aborted trade agreement I had with McCamey was Gio Bernard, who is now out 2-4 weeks with a knee problem as Mixon returns from his own 2-4 week knee problem. I'm not too sure what happened with my trade curse powers on that one. Maybe they were activated once we agreed verbally and Gio was going to get hurt from there? I guess that's what I get for trusting this monkey paw I got from a bizarre Moroccan bazaar.
Ben and AB should put any weird gossip on hold for 6 days with a huge game this week, and Yeldon should do well against that Chiefs defense that must give up 50 TDs in practice. I continue to be surprised by James White serving as a more consistent, less dynamic replacement for Dion Lewis. I'm not going to believe in AP ever again so I guess I'll have to be wrong if he has a good game this week, and why trade for Kelvin Benjamin if you won't start him over Zach Ertz? Actually, the second half of that statement on Benjamin is probably unneeded.
I think this is the week Calvin Ridley breaks his TD streak simply because every other Falcon will score this week. Also, Davante Adams injuring his calf on Wednesday doesn't bode well for what should be a good matchup. With Gio out and Mixon sure to get all the action in the world, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to start Mixon over Davante. Or maybe Kupp. Or Kerryon until the Lions show they know how to use a good back in a good matchup. Point is, Mixon needs to be in this lineup.
I'm going to assume rational coaching from McCamey gets Mixon in the lineup and that it will be very frustrating for Scott to watch AP head to the bench for Chris Thompson as the Skins try to catch up to the Saints on Monday night.
THE PICK: WTTK 104 - TDHAF 98
THE NIGHT BOYS (2-2) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS
The Night Boys lost in Week 1 when they scored 45 points and they won in Week 3 when their opponent scored 47 points. Larry lost last week when he scored 69 points and won in Week 3 when his opponent scored 66. Another commonality is that both of these dropped their incredibly disappointing franchise QBs this season.
Larry is going to be without Dalvin yet again this week, and I'm pretty sure that missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury is not what he had in mind when he signed that contract last season. Mike Evans is on a bye so Taywan Taylor gets the start, which...I mean...it's Taywan Taylor. And if David Johnson can't post 20 points against this Niner defense, it is just never going to happen for him this season.
As for Barker, I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but Andy Dalton should be a nice option this week.
When Larry sits down for his traditional Sunday roast with Yorkshire pudding on Sunday evening, he'll have his inner optimist going, trying to figure out scenarios in which DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Thompson don't complete the Night Boys comeback on SNF and MNF. But they don't call this team The Night Boys for nothin'! See, because they will finish this off during the night games this week? Night boys. Night. Games. Night?
Anyway, it'll take about 5 minutes of game action for Larry's much more robust internal pessimist to get going. These two teams are currently riding parallel, inverse escalators. Just a question of whether they high five each other in passing.
THE PICK: TNB 76 - TWR 60
Tuesday, October 2, 2018
AFFL Week 4 Review
I'm just going to put all of my Monday night thoughts in one place to start.
- Joe Tessitore is absolutely fucking hideous as a play-by-play guy
- The entire MNF crew is a complete trainwreck right now, but Tessitore is a guy who can single handedly ruin a party
- Joe Tessitore loves Italian places with watery pasta and 2 cups of bright red sauce heaped on top of the noodles because the owners gives him free stuffed mushrooms because Joe is "his guy"
- I fucking hate Joe Tessitore
- Philip Lindsay is indeed pretty good, but he's De'Anthony Thomas or Tarik Cohen
- I am probably biased, but Royce Freeman is the real deal long term
- A fantasy guy I follow on Twitter talks about the "assumption of rational coaching". The Broncos have decided that Devontae Booker is their 3rd down/passing back in a complete vacuum of evidence that he can actually do that and he gets waaaayyyyy too many snaps.
- Freeman should get more initial carries, Lindsay should get the Booker work, and Booker should be cut.
- Pat Mahomes looks like he's from Elliot.
ASSTANNER 145 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 99.2
Historically, scoring 100 points most likely means you're going to get the W. My score this week was enough to beat 33 out of 48 possible opponents this season, but sometimes you run into a team that puts up the most points since 2014. It happens.
That said, I would like to apologize to the entire league for letting you down in this spot. It was my job to push Chris to 0-4, end his season early and save us all a lot of hassle this year. But I just couldn't get it done. Outdoor Brees gave up red zone snaps to Taysom Hill (don't get me started on that) and Odell is still waiting to go off. Eli overthrowing a wide open Odell by 5 feet multiple times might have something to do with that.
Goff had 5 TDs, Zeke led the Cowboys in rushing AND receiving, Maher kicked 4 field goals, a late pickup of the Packers DST added 20 more points. All of these events are completely sustainable and repeatable and Chris is totally back in this thing even though he's technically in 11th place right now.
(An intellectually honest person would note here that Chris is 1-3 with the highest Points Against total right now, but that's not me so I'm not going to do that.)
HEISENBERG 111.4 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 69.4
So, uh, looks like the Rippers just fell apart like the Bluesmobile. It's nice that Mahomes' worst game is still worth 20 points, and that David Johnson got in the end zone, but there's not many positives here. Kenyan Drake is officially not going to happen, and that's technically a positive if you're happy to have the finality of knowing. Larry's bench outscored Gary's bench, which I guess could be seen as a positive.
I didn't think Kamara would suddenly be bad or anything, but I definitely did not think he'd score even MORE this season. I don't want to get too far into regression or opportunities or historical averages or anything, but it's possible that Kamara's touch-to-touchdown is so atypical simply because he's extremely goddamn good.
(Fun historical note that everybody probably already knows: Kamara was in the same Alabama backfield with Drake and Derrick Henry before transferring to Tennessee.)
Carlos Hyde continues to perhaps be worth a first round pick in that trade? Gary is good this season, what else can I tell you?
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 117.9 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 70
I think it was Matthew Berry who pointed out that Julio is currently on pace for 2000 yards and 0 TDs. Lindsay and Allen Robinson were able to find the end zone, not that it really mattered. Tyreek had 30 points in Week 1 and 27 points combined in Weeks 2-4, but the problem is you can't bench a guy who is always one touch away from a 115-yd TD.
All of the Jesus disciples have a similar trajectory, actually. Semi scored 111 in Week 1, and then 66, 67, and 70. The only positives were that Alshon's and Corey Davis' good games on the bench were not the different in this one.
DeShaun Watson and Todd Gurley were the difference in this one, and I love that Watson looked enough like his old self that Bri will be right back to not knowing which QB to start in a given week. Bri made the right call in ignoring my Breida recommendation and Sony Michel finally came to life.
Man, there were just a LOT of points out there this week. Bri left Golden Tate's 25 points on the bench and it's not even a footnote in this game.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 99.3 - RUSSELLMANIA 65.1
After yet another blowout loss, Brian Barker drove up to Hillside Manor sometimes after 2 am to talk a little while about his team. The problem is his team is all a lot of oysters but no pearls. It's been a long September and there's no reason to believe this year will be better than the last. For him, this season has already gone by so fast.
McCoy and Gronk combined for 8.1 points in the starting lineup. Amari Cooper had 18.8 points, which is great, but Barker left on the bench. I tried telling him this is how Amari Cooper works! Start him next week and he'll be right back to 2 points.
Austin Ekeler continues to rack up touchdowns and we cannot deny the possibility that Tim is good despite all historical precedence.
WTTK? 103 - ANIMAL HOUSE 58.4
I had a trade worked out with McCamey last week that was contingent upon him losing this week, falling to 1-3, and beginning to pack his team away into storage. Then he goes out at puts up a 103 even with a 0 from Sammy Watkins and -2 from the Dolphins.
Quick aside, I'd like to apologize to my fellow Dead Drop divisioners for being the reason we only went 3-1 this week and not 4-0 as predicted. I will try to do better next time.
McCamey was yet another owner who left a huge day on the bench (Luck's 32.5 points) and still cruised to a big win. Must be nice having all of these reserve points you don't even need.
AJ scored a touchdown to win the Bengals' real game, but it wasn't nearly enough to win Meyers' fake game. James Conner was held back by...I mean, let's just say it. Randy Fichtner is not one of the league's great offensive minds. We don't overreact like a Monday caller to Mark Madden's show ("Rob from Carrick, you're on." "Ben should RETAHR TODAY and we should trade HIP HOP ANTONIO FOR ADAM THIELEN."), but Meyers might regret tying his team so closely to the Steelers offense.
THE NIGHT BOYS 114.1 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 88.9
There's no better sign that scoring is way, way up this season than Barker averaging 60 PPG in the first 3 weeks, starting ANDY DALTON this week, and posting 114 points. Bad teams starting Andy Dalton is usually a Week 9 bye week give up thing. This season, it's solid strategy!
Barker got TDs from both of his tight ends, plus DeAndre Hopkins. He started Rashad Penny after Carson was ruled out, sensibly enough, and then had to watch somebody named Mike Davis come in and run for 140 yards and 2 TDs instead. If he had just left Tarik Cohen in, he could've scored 130+, but here we have our fourth team this week with huge bench points while still winning.
Leonard Fournette, who costs $1.92 and is likely a top-2 pick in then barren 2019 AFFL draft, scored 3.5 points before leaving the game with an aggravated hamstring. That created an aggravated Scott who is now trying to trade Fournette after turning down 3-4 offers for him in preseason.
Ben is off lately, Randy Fichtner is off permanently, and if Ben and AB don't do something big every single week, Scott basically has no chance of winning unless the schedule gifts him some cupcake.
That said, I would like to apologize to the entire league for letting you down in this spot. It was my job to push Chris to 0-4, end his season early and save us all a lot of hassle this year. But I just couldn't get it done. Outdoor Brees gave up red zone snaps to Taysom Hill (don't get me started on that) and Odell is still waiting to go off. Eli overthrowing a wide open Odell by 5 feet multiple times might have something to do with that.
Goff had 5 TDs, Zeke led the Cowboys in rushing AND receiving, Maher kicked 4 field goals, a late pickup of the Packers DST added 20 more points. All of these events are completely sustainable and repeatable and Chris is totally back in this thing even though he's technically in 11th place right now.
(An intellectually honest person would note here that Chris is 1-3 with the highest Points Against total right now, but that's not me so I'm not going to do that.)
HEISENBERG 111.4 - THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 69.4
So, uh, looks like the Rippers just fell apart like the Bluesmobile. It's nice that Mahomes' worst game is still worth 20 points, and that David Johnson got in the end zone, but there's not many positives here. Kenyan Drake is officially not going to happen, and that's technically a positive if you're happy to have the finality of knowing. Larry's bench outscored Gary's bench, which I guess could be seen as a positive.
I didn't think Kamara would suddenly be bad or anything, but I definitely did not think he'd score even MORE this season. I don't want to get too far into regression or opportunities or historical averages or anything, but it's possible that Kamara's touch-to-touchdown is so atypical simply because he's extremely goddamn good.
(Fun historical note that everybody probably already knows: Kamara was in the same Alabama backfield with Drake and Derrick Henry before transferring to Tennessee.)
Carlos Hyde continues to perhaps be worth a first round pick in that trade? Gary is good this season, what else can I tell you?
THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 117.9 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 70
I think it was Matthew Berry who pointed out that Julio is currently on pace for 2000 yards and 0 TDs. Lindsay and Allen Robinson were able to find the end zone, not that it really mattered. Tyreek had 30 points in Week 1 and 27 points combined in Weeks 2-4, but the problem is you can't bench a guy who is always one touch away from a 115-yd TD.
All of the Jesus disciples have a similar trajectory, actually. Semi scored 111 in Week 1, and then 66, 67, and 70. The only positives were that Alshon's and Corey Davis' good games on the bench were not the different in this one.
DeShaun Watson and Todd Gurley were the difference in this one, and I love that Watson looked enough like his old self that Bri will be right back to not knowing which QB to start in a given week. Bri made the right call in ignoring my Breida recommendation and Sony Michel finally came to life.
Man, there were just a LOT of points out there this week. Bri left Golden Tate's 25 points on the bench and it's not even a footnote in this game.
SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 99.3 - RUSSELLMANIA 65.1
After yet another blowout loss, Brian Barker drove up to Hillside Manor sometimes after 2 am to talk a little while about his team. The problem is his team is all a lot of oysters but no pearls. It's been a long September and there's no reason to believe this year will be better than the last. For him, this season has already gone by so fast.
McCoy and Gronk combined for 8.1 points in the starting lineup. Amari Cooper had 18.8 points, which is great, but Barker left on the bench. I tried telling him this is how Amari Cooper works! Start him next week and he'll be right back to 2 points.
Austin Ekeler continues to rack up touchdowns and we cannot deny the possibility that Tim is good despite all historical precedence.
WTTK? 103 - ANIMAL HOUSE 58.4
I had a trade worked out with McCamey last week that was contingent upon him losing this week, falling to 1-3, and beginning to pack his team away into storage. Then he goes out at puts up a 103 even with a 0 from Sammy Watkins and -2 from the Dolphins.
Quick aside, I'd like to apologize to my fellow Dead Drop divisioners for being the reason we only went 3-1 this week and not 4-0 as predicted. I will try to do better next time.
McCamey was yet another owner who left a huge day on the bench (Luck's 32.5 points) and still cruised to a big win. Must be nice having all of these reserve points you don't even need.
AJ scored a touchdown to win the Bengals' real game, but it wasn't nearly enough to win Meyers' fake game. James Conner was held back by...I mean, let's just say it. Randy Fichtner is not one of the league's great offensive minds. We don't overreact like a Monday caller to Mark Madden's show ("Rob from Carrick, you're on." "Ben should RETAHR TODAY and we should trade HIP HOP ANTONIO FOR ADAM THIELEN."), but Meyers might regret tying his team so closely to the Steelers offense.
THE NIGHT BOYS 114.1 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 88.9
There's no better sign that scoring is way, way up this season than Barker averaging 60 PPG in the first 3 weeks, starting ANDY DALTON this week, and posting 114 points. Bad teams starting Andy Dalton is usually a Week 9 bye week give up thing. This season, it's solid strategy!
Barker got TDs from both of his tight ends, plus DeAndre Hopkins. He started Rashad Penny after Carson was ruled out, sensibly enough, and then had to watch somebody named Mike Davis come in and run for 140 yards and 2 TDs instead. If he had just left Tarik Cohen in, he could've scored 130+, but here we have our fourth team this week with huge bench points while still winning.
Leonard Fournette, who costs $1.92 and is likely a top-2 pick in then barren 2019 AFFL draft, scored 3.5 points before leaving the game with an aggravated hamstring. That created an aggravated Scott who is now trying to trade Fournette after turning down 3-4 offers for him in preseason.
Ben is off lately, Randy Fichtner is off permanently, and if Ben and AB don't do something big every single week, Scott basically has no chance of winning unless the schedule gifts him some cupcake.
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