AFFL Week 5 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 18-6

After picking up Jameis for Brees' bye next week, I got pretty tight up against the cap, at least when you figure in that I'll need bye week defense and kicker pickups at some point. So I checked the schedule to see if I could get away with empty slots in those particular weeks, and that's when I noticed that Harry Butker's (Hairy butt!) bye comes in Week 12.

The double week.

And here's a fun and funny thing about Week 12 in the year of our Yahweh 5779. Only two NFL teams have a bye that week, they just happen to be the two best offenses in the league, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams.

It's a long, long way until Week 12 and we don't have any idea what will happen between now and then with injuries, W/L records, divisions, etc y et al. But some teams are going to head into the crucial double matchup with a chance to either clinch or blow their division without some key players.

No Todd Gurley.
No Pat Mahomes.
No Tyreek Hill.
No Cooper Kupp.
No Travis Kelce.
No Robert Woods.
No Brandin Cooks.
No Jared Goff.
No Rams DST.
No Kareem Hunt.

Here's a serious, only slightly hyperbolic question. Do you try to trade any of those guys to get somebody who won't miss the double game, whether now or in Week 9 when you're scratching for first place? Obviously contracts and who's locked up for 2019 and the playoffs are bigger factors, but still. That's a big hole on a weekend that goes a long way to deciding who gets byes and who gets a buh-bye.

But that's a long way off. That offense bathed in the golden light is still a go this week and Todd Gurley will have Bri saying...





THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (2-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-3)
I'm aware that for some reason the capsules for my own games are much longer and more detailed than for the other games for whatever reason. Is it because I always do my game first and have more energy up front? Possibly. Is it simple vanity? Impossible. That's not going to the case this week, though, because there's not much interesting going on in this one.

Let's see...can we find anything interesting here? Well, Barker briefly had Shady in the lineup over Gronk before Gronk's injury status cleared up on Wednesday. The 7.5 Gronk posted might seem disappointing, but it's probably 3x what Shady will post. Amari Cooper had 2 catches for 17 yards combined in both games against the Chargers last year. That's kinda interesting.

The most interesting angle might be that I am in genuine danger of losing two straight games to teams that were a combined 1-6 coming into our matchup and falling 2.5 games back in the division. That would be a real problem.

The main issues I have this week is that Odell has yet to break out, and I'm going to have one iffy spot in my lineup whether I start Freeman, Collins, or Alf. Then again, Odell complained today that the Giants refuse to throw it more than 20 yards in one try and Vance Joseph said that Denver needs to get Freeman more carries, so maybe some squeaky wheel treatment is just what I need.

Kenny Golladay, who is extremely underrated and all of you should have been sniffing around him with trade offers weeks ago, will have 19 points this week. And Drew Brees is going to hit two huge milestones at home Monday night: becoming the NFL's all-time passing yards leader and finishing off the third Dude win of the season.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 102 - RM 74


HEISENBERG (3-1) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (2-2)
It's possible that Sony Michel's first half TD that was neither called a TD nor reviewed before Brady pulled off a 1/4-yard TD sneak could swing TWO games this week. This could potentially be seen as petty of me, but I am extremely rooting for Gary to lose because he's going against that bonus Brady TD and Bri Williams to lose because he lost a Michel TD.

Though, honestly, I expect that one TD to be just one factor in Gary's loss this week. Meyers averaged 120 points in the first two weeks, but only 69 points in the following fortnight. I suspect his true nature is closer to the former than the latter, as this latest go will prove. Brady got back to his old self last night, Conner should get close to his old (Week 1 vs. Cle) self against the Falcons, CMC should have a lot of fun against the Giants, and JuJu, Boz, and the Rams should all post points this week.

By the way, on MNF, did everybody else notice that JuJu's high school picture was labeled John Smith, Jr? The kids can call him JoJu!

Matt Ryan should go off against the Steelers, but we've seen problems with NFC South QBs crossing the Mason-Dixon line and playing outside. Like, say, Drew Brees last week. Ingram will take some action away from Kamara so he'll only post 20 points instead of 30, and I don't like Carlos Hyde against Baltimore one bit, buddy. The sole effect of the Baldwin/Hilton trade this season so far has been freeing up contract spots. Nothing has made its way to the field.

With Freeman back and healthy, I'd fire him up against the Steelers instead of a dinged-up Lynch, but really, what is it going to matter this week?

THE PICK: AH 121 - HB 68


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-1) vs. ASSTANNER (1-3)
Michel did score a TD that counted late in the game and Bri is playing Chris this week, so that Brady/Michel deal isn't going to make a damn bit of difference in either game. It doesn't add up to a hill of beans! Nuts to this.

Bri is going with Cam for the first time this season, which means he'll somehow only post 14 when he should have like 24 in this game. He's also correctly put Matt Breida in after MIKE DAVIS tore up the Cardinals rush defense last week. (Note: Picture Karl Malone saying MIKE DAVIS the same way he said MEL TURPIN.)


Gurley will be as good as usual, and Golden Tate should get some against the Packers secondary. The only ever-so-slight blemish is Travis Kelce, who could be contained by Jacksonville, but he is literally Bri's only option in that spot unless he hits the FA pool. I can't imagine Chris has him worried enough to do such a thing.

By the way, Chris is STILL holding on to Dez Bryant and his $1.20 contract! It's Week 5! The Pats traded for Josh Gordon and it's taken them 3 weeks to throw to him 4 times in a game. Dez could sign tomorrow and the best case scenario is 27 yards in Week 9. PS, he's not signing tomorrow.

I do like DeDe Westbrook this week, though. While I'm in truth-telling mode, Wentz and Boyd aren't too bad, either.

THE PICK: TKSMB 111 - AT 91


SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (2-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-3)
Semi and I were having some minor trade talk, a little light petting if you will, and he eventually confessed that he has not yet figured out the AFFL. He said/claimed/boasted that he's usually top 3 in his other leagues but can never get it going here. I wanted to share a nifty tip with him to help turn things around, but...I don't have one.

The best I could figure out is that because of the contracts and the way superstars get locked up for a long time, you need to take more chances in this league. Those chances could be trading picks for a star, signing a rookie to a 3-yr deal, drafting a bunch of backs and hoping one tree bears fruit, or living your entire life as Tim, but you need to take chances because you aren't getting Gurley or Zeke in the draft outside of their rookie years. (And, technically, both of those guys were picked up as college FA by Chris, so I guess you're never drafting them.)

Now, chances imply an influence of luck, and the chances you take need to pan out for sure. But at the same time, a usual group of 4-5 owners is competitive every year while others bob up and down on waves they can't control. I'm one of those perennial contenders and even I'm not sure what the secret is.

This league is more like poker than average leagues, I suppose, and certain owners are better at setting themselves up for positive outcomes more often than others. But sometimes a weird river card hits and some moron that called all the way down with 9-4 suited gets paid off over pocket QQ.

Anyway, as far as this game goes, CBS is predicting only 14 points for Julio this week. They must be assuming his TD drought will live on and he'll rack up 140 yards. And that's still conservative! Artie Burns is going to be on Julio and he's 7 inches shorter and 77 times worse. Julio's projection should be 54 points.

Going back to the poker analogy for a second, this week Tim is holding the QQ and Semi has the 9-4. Maybe even 7-4.

THE PICK: SS 94 - LBJ 71


WTTK? (2-2) vs. TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-2)
A second part of that aborted trade agreement I had with McCamey was Gio Bernard, who is now out 2-4 weeks with a knee problem as Mixon returns from his own 2-4 week knee problem. I'm not too sure what happened with my trade curse powers on that one. Maybe they were activated once we agreed verbally and Gio was going to get hurt from there? I guess that's what I get for trusting this monkey paw I got from a bizarre Moroccan bazaar.

Ben and AB should put any weird gossip on hold for 6 days with a huge game this week, and Yeldon should do well against that Chiefs defense that must give up 50 TDs in practice. I continue to be surprised by James White serving as a more consistent, less dynamic replacement for Dion Lewis. I'm not going to believe in AP ever again so I guess I'll have to be wrong if he has a good game this week, and why trade for Kelvin Benjamin if you won't start him over Zach Ertz? Actually, the second half of that statement on Benjamin is probably unneeded.

I think this is the week Calvin Ridley breaks his TD streak simply because every other Falcon will score this week. Also, Davante Adams injuring his calf on Wednesday doesn't bode well for what should be a good matchup. With Gio out and Mixon sure to get all the action in the world, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to start Mixon over Davante. Or maybe Kupp. Or Kerryon until the Lions show they know how to use a good back in a good matchup. Point is, Mixon needs to be in this lineup.

I'm going to assume rational coaching from McCamey gets Mixon in the lineup and that it will be very frustrating for Scott to watch AP head to the bench for Chris Thompson as the Skins try to catch up to the Saints on Monday night.

THE PICK: WTTK 104 - TDHAF 98


THE NIGHT BOYS (2-2) vs. THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS
The Night Boys lost in Week 1 when they scored 45 points and they won in Week 3 when their opponent scored 47 points. Larry lost last week when he scored 69 points and won in Week 3 when his opponent scored 66. Another commonality is that both of these dropped their incredibly disappointing franchise QBs this season.

Larry is going to be without Dalvin yet again this week, and I'm pretty sure that missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury is not what he had in mind when he signed that contract last season. Mike Evans is on a bye so Taywan Taylor gets the start, which...I mean...it's Taywan Taylor. And if David Johnson can't post 20 points against this Niner defense, it is just never going to happen for him this season.

As for Barker, I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but Andy Dalton should be a nice option this week.

When Larry sits down for his traditional Sunday roast with Yorkshire pudding on Sunday evening, he'll have his inner optimist going, trying to figure out scenarios in which DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Thompson don't complete the Night Boys comeback on SNF and MNF. But they don't call this team The Night Boys for nothin'! See, because they will finish this off during the night games this week? Night boys. Night. Games. Night?

Anyway, it'll take about 5 minutes of game action for Larry's much more robust internal pessimist to get going. These two teams are currently riding parallel, inverse escalators. Just a question of whether they high five each other in passing.

THE PICK: TNB 76 - TWR 60