AFFL Week 6 Preview

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON: 23-7

The AFFL trade market was like Hong Kong real estate this week with players being put on the block, offers coming through instantly, picks being tossed around, and bidding wars breaking out for even white wide receivers. Thing is, I don't think we're done with the action. There's still one more 1-4 team that's yet to sell anybody off for picks and he's got some pretty attractive pass catchers to offload. Not enough to keep him from being 1-5 by Tuesday, but still.

There's also the possibility that a couple of teams drop to 2-4 after losses this week and then want to jump into that sweet sellers market. EARN PICK$$$ NOW! WORK FROM HOME! ASK ME HOW!

I love the idea that 2 owners control nearly 50% of the first round and I love, love the idea that Chris could end up with 3-4 picks in the Top 24 if he really cleans house. If we can get Tim to trade a 1st for a player so we can avoid the traditional 10-minute draft delay, it'll be the best draft ever!

Except for the actual players.

The 2018 draft had one of the deepest first rounds in years. Through Week 5, the first round produced two Top-5 backs and four Top-15 receivers, plus Julio would be Top-10 if he had even a single touchdown. Oh, and Kelce, who's the #1 TE with enough points to be a Top-20 WR. Will the 2019 draft be as rich?

Uhh...maybe not. Looking through expiring contracts and unsigned players, I put together a quick and dirty first round mock.

1) Le'Veon Bell / Michael Thomas
2) Leonard Fournette
3) Adam Thielen
4) JuJu Smith-Schuster
5) AJ Green
6) Jordan Howard
7) Mark Ingram
8) Kenyan Drake
9) Jerick McKinnon
10) Aaron Jones
11) Benny Snell
12) Aaron Rodgers

The Bell/Thomas split is based on whomever Meyers ends up letting go after this season, assuming he doesn't trade Bell. A fair assumption since he literally hasn't made a trade since 2014. If you're wondering, on Aug 21, 2014, he traded a 3rd rounder to Gary for Roddy White and an 11th rounder to Bri for Ben Tate. Two trades in one day! He must still be recovering from exhaustion.

But let's get our focus back to 2018 for now. Oakland and Seattle play in London this week and this game is not moved up to 9am Eastern time because the NFL must think, get this, the hometown fans don't want to get up at 6am to watch their teams. How are the two teams getting to London? Why...





THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (3-2) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (4-1)
Now THAT was a trade worth talking about! That is some action! When I first inquired about Tyreek, Semi said he was looking to blow the whole thing up after years of stagnation, one thing led to another, and the next morning I accidentally wore two left shoes home. It hurt but it was worth it!

After going heavy on running backs in the draft only to watch the NFL set new records for passing TDs and QB ratings in the first quarter of the season, I quickly pivoted and now Hill gives me the chance to roll out a 1-4 WR lineup with Saquon being the 1. I can dig it.

Oh, and to answer a rather impudent question from Wednesday, Rodgers had been a franchise player for 9 seasons, well above the threshold of 5, so I made him a 1/X on my roster.

Speaking of moves, Bri needs to make an emergency one this week because with Golden Tate's bye and TY Hilton's injury, he literally cannot start a legal lineup. There are plenty of streamable receivers out there to be sure, and Bri has the cap space, it's just a matter of finding a guy who's going to score in what's certain to be a shootout between the two highest-scoring teams in the league. One that could potentially determine a bye and who doesn't due to H2H results.

I emailed Bri Thursday afternoon just to get it on the record that I thought I needed 40 points total from Barkley and Beckham last night to have a chance in this game. Barkley did his part in a transcendent effort, but Odell (Eli, really) came up one TD short. Unfortunately for me, the Giants offense has all of 3 plays:

• WR screen
• 7-step dropback and get sacked
• Give it to Saquon and pray

A reminder that Pat Shurmer was 9-23 in two seasons as head coach of the Browns.

So if Saquon matches Gurley and Bri's WR pickup matches Odell, where does that leave the rest of the lineup? Carson and Coleman should wash as well, but Sony Michel is the wild card here. It's possible NE will run 50 times to keep the KC offense off the field and Michel will have a great game. It's also possible that KC will get up early and NE will have James White in the whole time as they try to catch up. Seems like Michel will at least get a TD, though.

I'd really like this to be the week when Bri starting the wrong QB finally costs him a game, but I think Aaron Rodgers' comeback attempt on Monday night will be exciting before ultimately falling short. I'd still start Cam, though. 

THE PICK: TKSMB 118 - TDHGNM 111 

THE NIGHT BOYS (2-3) vs. HEISENBERG (3-2)
Wednesday evening, I got an e-visit from my favorite Gary of them all, Conspiracy Gary. He accused me of having an arrangement in which I was either managing Semi's team or that we'd be swapping entire franchises next year or that we'd just keep trading players back and forth to each other and that if and when this arrangement came to light, the AFFL would explode and die. He then asked me to put the longevity of the league ahead of my "Richard Matthews encore."

Okay, first off, Dick Matthews was a great man and it's a damn shame the PC Police chased him out of this league just because he was a Trump man. The liberal mobs in this league gave him the #Kavanaugh treatment. #himtoo #maga

Second off, I thought the trade was pretty great all around, but I didn't realize it was so great that it would reach QAnon conspiracy levels. Now I like the deal even more.

Oh, the subject line of Gary's email was OFF THE RECORD, but as I told him, when I receive Trump-level deranged ramblings, my journalistic ethics dictate that I put those comments ON the record ASAP. To do otherwise would be a lie to myself and to the league.

After a little more digging, it turned out that the catalyst for this conspiracy in Gary's mind was last week when I discussed how Semi said he couldn't figure out the league. So Gary's fertile imagination, perhaps accelerated by Judge Jeannie, figured that Semi was struggling and therefore within one week I convinced him to hand over his franchise to me in a Rasputin-esque power grab. This was a more logical explanation than a bad team trading players to a good team for picks, something that happens multiple times a year and in fact happened three different times this week alone.

Folks, you cannot put a price on the amusement this league provides. I mean, technically the fees are a price, I guess, but you get so much value for that money!

Sticking with trades for a moment, how about that Thielen deal? It's not quite the golden deal Chris had that I referenced in the Review, but it was still a little more exorbitant than I expected for Thielen. Though he is the #1 WR right now and Barker can just draft a rookie kicker in the 7th round next year instead of the 6th.

In just 1 1/2 seasons, Adam Thielen's value has gone from my 9th round pick to Chris' 2nd round pick to Barker's 1st, 3rd, and 6th. That's some rise. Keep that in mind now I gave Kenny Golladay a cheap contract even though Gary says me overrating "weekly streamer receivers" is how I keep getting in trouble.

Anyway, would you like to talk about this matchup at some point? The holes in Gary's lineup really stick out when he doesn't have that oil painting of Alvin Kamara to hang over them. Newly-arrived Julio helps a bit and my promise to you is that this is the week he finally scores a touchdown. Corey Davis also goes straight into the starting lineup. Hopefully Mariota is able to grip a ball by Sunday so he can throw it to Davis. If not, maybe he can just dump it off to Dion Lewis, who also gets the start for Gary this week. I guess you've got to admire the moxie of a guy who's willing to start two players from one of the worst offenses in the league against a good defense.

Between Thielen, Corey Davis, Julio, Hopkins, and Baldwin, there is a lot of money invested in receivers in this game. Barker is rolling with Cohen over Thompson as his 3rd down back of choice and as of now he's assuming Brandin Cooks will be cleared for takeoff after last week's concussion. Cleared for takeoff? Against the No Fly Zone Denver defense? Wokka wokka wokka!

Barker traded one more pick for one fewer player than Gary did this week and he's going to come up short in this matchup as well.

THE PICK: HB 70 - TNB 60


ASSTANNER (1-4) vs. SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (3-2)
Did you know that Isaiah Crowell is currently the #8 RB in the AFFL? Did you know he's reached that high despite having a 3.9 point game and a 0.3 point game? In fact, he's alternated great weeks with terrible ones, which is probably why Chris is benching him this week in favor of Jimmy Graham, who hasn't hit double digits all season. It's like when you pass a roulette table and the number tree shows five reds in a row. You slam $10 on the table because the next one has GOTTA be black, right?

It's going to be around 20 degrees in Denver and it might snow, conditions that Jared Goff has never played in before. It'll be interesting to see how McVay schemes weather. Zeke has a tough matchup against the Jags, and if I recall correctly, Jameis mainly ignored DeSean last season. Boyd, Gordon, and Graham could all have great games, or they could all be total flops. I do think Gordon breaks out in prime time this week, though.

Alex Smith plays at 1pm this week so he might be decent as opposed to the many, many times he's flopped in a night game. I think the only good night games he's had are last year's season opener against the Pats and the Fiesta Bowl against Pitt. Tim is going to try Aaron Jones again this week, even though Mike McCarthy has never shown an ability to be sensible, and if Ekeler doesn't catch a TD, he's got a crater game coming up.

I'd really like to complain in advance that either Bri or I are going to score 100+ and lose while Gary and Chris beat teams that don't even crack 80. Garbage. But congrats to Chris for winning his first game after he started selling off his players for picks.

THE PICK: AT 78 - SS 66


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (4-1) vs. WTTK? (3-2)
I guess I can probably say it now that it will never happen, but McCamey and I had a deal in pencil for Melvin Gordon involving my 2019 1st and Gio if he fell to 1-3. But he's won the last two weeks and I think it's fair to say that Melvin Gordon is untouchable right now. Although we might want to temper expectations for both him and Rivers this week since the Chargers are heading east for an early game in cooling weather against a Browns defense that has held fairly tight this season. I also don't love Mixon this week unless he catches some passes. As good as he's been, the Steelers are pretty decent at stopping the run so far.

It also remains to be seen if Kupp is cleared (for takeoff!) this week and I wouldn't be surprised if Ridley now goes 4 weeks without catching any touchdowns. It might not be a terrible idea to try Ron Jones in this matchup since Atlanta has been so generous with running back fantasy points. Davante Adams, yeah, I would start him against the Niners. That is a good idea, Bill.

Larry is...I mean, choose your own metaphor. Leaking oil. Taking on water. Bleeding out. Whatever. His point total went down for 4 straight weeks until he "bounced back" with 80 points last week. And yet, it does seem like every year one team cruises to a decent record even though they should be losing more often than not. It's usual an Albert. But Larry is from Crafton Heights and maybe that's close enough.

I don't love Robinson or Drake in the Bears/Dolphins game, although I think Rob has a better chance of hitting 10 points than Ken does. But this should be the week David Johnson finally breaks out and has a DJ-type game, Evans should be huge against Atlanta, and Jarvis is overdue for a big game as well.

The Rippers should have a slight lead by sundown Sunday that Mahomes extends to a huge lead against the Pats. Davante Adams will close the gap some on Monday night, but he doesn't have a 30-point game in him.

THE PICK: TWR 93 - WTTK 82


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (3-2)
A full 38% of players in this matchup are involved in the Steelers/Bengals game. Since that one will feature Road Ben and looming specter of horrific injury, this matchup should be ugly as well. Maybe Conner can grind out some yards and AJ can get over Joe Haden, but Ben, AB, JuJu, and Bos will all be below average. So who's left?

Well, Zach Ertz scored another TD last night and I have to confess that I am stunned by the number of touchdowns Scott has extracted from this guy in the last two seasons. James White should be great for Scott this week, but the effect of every yard and TD he gets will be diluted by Brady being on Meyers' team. Even if AP plays, he's at risk at being knocked out of the game, and Dallas should be able to keep Yeldon down a bit.

Meyers might regret being so invested in the AFC North if the Steelers game turns out to be 17-13, and Demaryius is completely cooked to completion at this point, so everything would fall to Brady and McCaffrey to save the day for him. I guess they probably will.

THE PICK: AH 88 - TDHAF 81


LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-4) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-4)
I was going to suggest that Barker hurry up and trade Keenan Allen so he can lose this game and get the inside track on next year's #1 pick, but then Alshon Jeffery caught 2 TDs. Barker also has more subtle tanking options at his disposal, such as starting the #5 overall pick, LeSean McCoy, each week. How could anybody claim you're tanking when you start a high pick just because he sucks?

Sanders has been solid but not spectacular since a great Week 1, and Keenan should struggle along with the entire Chargers passing game this week, but at least Gronk and Kirk should have good fun this week.

Semi is about to have his best game of the season after selling off his best players, which I'm pretty qualifies as irony. Jeffery already did his part and Jameis and Julian should have great games as well. Tyler Lockett has been surprisingly productive so far this year and the Oakland secondary isn't exactly a problem.

If Semi is still confused about how the intricacies of the AFFL work, I'd like to let him know that putting up 100+ points when you're trying to tank the season is not how you're supposed to do things around here. But I do offer him a hearty congrats for the sagacious of franchising an affordable defense to provide himself with maximal positional flexibility for his 2019 rebuilding season. It always gives me a little tingle when I can inspire others to wisdom.

THE PICK: LBJ 107 - RM 65