AFFL Week 3 Preview

LAST WEEK: 3-3

SEASON: 8-4

There are several reasons I don't respect anybody in this league. The hardest part about going through the reasons would be deciding to list them alphabetically or group them by type. But today, I want to focus on one reason: the total lack of inquiries about AJ Green.

Yes, AJ Green has had two below-average games so far. You all realize that because you have the recency bias of a goldfish. The #1 WR in 2016 through 10 weeks had 2 bad games! He sucks now!

But here's the thing. I've made noise for a few years about trying to move Green. The new rule allows him to be a 1/X trade. The Bengals were so bad in a game we all watched that they fired their OC and promoted Bill Lazor, who was last seen in Miami running a diet Chip Kelly offense that led the league in pass-to-run ratio. Whatever the issues with Dalton and the offensive line, Green can still catch bombs in triple coverage. His next 5 opponents are the defensive juggernauts of GB - CLE - BUF - PIT - IND. There's a better than average chance that Green goes into Week 8 as a Top 3 WR, if not #1. This is an ALL-TIME buy low opportunity.

After hinting as recently as the Week 2 Review that I was getting tired of Green, I got all of one email. It was from Gary. Now, a trade email from Gary is a headache to begin with. One that comes after he scores a lot of points and wins and is feeling good about his team for 6 days? Ugh.

"I’ve been looking at what I could offer for Green, but I just can’t justify anything.  He may be untradeable even though he clearly has value. Unless you take a straight draft pick. I mean, even Cobb for Green straight up seems like a loser based on salaries and performance so far."

The recency bias. Of. A. Goldfish.

Two fucking games and now AJ Green isn't as good as RANDALL FUCKING COBB?

Fuck outta here.

Based on salaries? JORDAN HOWARD IS MORE EXPENSIVE! 

Untradeable? Fine, I'll keep him and make the playoffs for the fifth year in a row.

I swear to whichever god you prefer, dealing with this league is like trying to explain trade policies to Trump voters. Forget all the evidence that I'm good every single year and know what I'm doing. You guys watched Thursday Night Football!

I'm losing my mind.

THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-1) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (1-1)

Mikhail Sembratovich has a problem looming. Landry, Hogan, Jordy, Corey Davis, and Jimmy Graham are all questionable. Jordy insists that he's playing last week, but he dropped out in the first quarter last week and posted a 0. Semi's already starting 3 backs, so he has no choice but to risk Jordy's 0 at the moment. He does have two defenses, but dropping one for a fill-in receiver only to pick up another defense during the bye week is a cap hit. 

Is Week 3 too early to make a fill-in trade? Is falling to 1-2 in division play when 2 other teams are certain to be 2-1 a problem? Especially if those are the 2 teams you've lost to? If you give up the division this early, can you still get a Wild Card?

So maybe he should make a trade. Let's see which two teams have WR depth to spare. Well, well. It's The Dude and Russellmania. I'm playing Semi this week, so it would have to be a pretty great trade offer that convinces me to focus long-term and not short. I'll tell you right now, I'm not trading AJ Green the week he's about to score 22 points. Brian Barker would certainly love to help another team beat me because he's a small, petty person, but would he love it enough to help a division rival he just beat? One he could get a 1.5 game lead on with a win?

What interesting times we live in!

Cincy is on the road, but they have a good defense and should be screaming around the field to avoid a 0-3 start. Plus, Jordy and Cobb (Whaaaaaat!?!?) are hurt, so maybe Rodgers will be down ever so slightly this week.

Stewart is a nice start against the Saints even though the Panthers are much more interested in getting McCaffrey rolling. Chris Carson might be nice enough, but the Titans have a good D line going against the worst O line in the league. (Full disclosure: Semi beat to me to Carson FA pickup by 1 hour and I did try to trade for him after that).

I am definitely concerned about Ben on the road against a terrible team. He should have a huge game, so I bet he scores 12 points. The Rams gave up ground to Kelley and Thompson last week, so Hyde should go over 100 yards, Martavis can get deep all day against Chicago, and DeSean faces the exact same coverage situation that Martavis had last week when he got open deep. The only question is do I play Amari or Adam? Thielen has a great slot matchup against Tampa if Bradford can really play, whereas Amari might run into Josh Norman a bit. Or do I dare start Javorius Allen, who's now on his third stint with my team? If West is out, he could see a full load against the Jags. Yeah, the Jags DST is great as we all know, but Baltimore could be running clock late.

I really did want to start Sammy Watkins this week and chose not solely because I couldn't stand the idea of watching two of my guys on TNF. 

THE PICK: TDHGNM 103 - LBJ 84

SCOTT DOESN'T HAVE ANY WINS (0-2) vs. THE NATIONAL RAZOR (1-1)

Scott has to earn his proper team name back with a win. This matchup gives us the only defeated team in the league against one of the finest owners in our league. The man smart enough to draft Randall Cobb, Younghoe Koo, and Tom Brady on accident. The man smart enough to keep Danny Woodhead on IR and smart enough to start TY Hilton over Ted Ginn last week despite my thoughts, giving his team an extra 2 points that meant nothing.

CBS has this game as a coin flip and I have absolutely no idea where that is coming from. Jameis, still prone to turnovers, is on the road against a great defense. Fournette, with no QB help, faces a Baltimore defense that bottled up Crowell and Hill/Gio/Mixon. DeMarco is old and hurt and losing carries to Henry. He didn't even practice yesterday. Melvin Gordon faces a great defense on the road. Chicago is decent against #1 WRs, and if Ben watched any tape at all this week, he probably realizes he needs to stop forcing the ball to AB in double coverage and take what he's given. Scott is starting Zach Ertz on purpose. Again.

That said, Brady always struggles with teams who can pressure the pocket with the front four. A team like Houston, for instance. And he looks extra skittish so far this season. Gary is going to dig in on T.Y. Hilton apparently, but whatever points CJammanuel Sanderson doesn't score against the tanking Bills, Freeman will likely pick up against Detroit. 

Earlier this week, Gary accused me of thinking all other owners were idiots who don't pay attention because I dared offer him Terrence West for Alvin Kamara. While that accusation might be true, that's quite a reaction to being offered a current starter for a potential future starter. Anyway, he can have West now if he wants him. 

But hey, Gary is going to be 2-1 come Tuesday. He won his division last year! Why won't you take him seriously? He's really good at this!

THE PICK: TNR 77 - SDHAW 58

ANIMAL HOUSE (1-1) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (1-1)

There was talk before the season that Meyers was going to leave the league because work was ramping up for him. Gary cajoled him into staying by pointing out he's won enough money to play for free for the next 5 years or so. Being too busy to care is presumably why Meyers has not yet cut AP or Lacy. Or maybe he can't stand the idea of carrying $0.75 of dead cap space. That could make sense since he's in accounting or some shit. 

Anyway, Bell should get back to form against Chicago and McCaffrey probably gets his 1st pro TD against the Saints. Fitz, Thomas, and Gronk, though...man, I don't know. They all have problems this week. Some of them have entire season problems so far. 

Terrelle Pryor, a first round pick, is being benched this week in favor of Demaryius Thomas. Ok, fine. Buffalo sucks so run with Thomas. Actually, come to think of it, Thomas started last week, so I guess Pryor is being benched in favor of Beckham. Makes sense on paper, although Beckham is still gimpy, on a snap count, and counting on getting the ball from an awkward, 36-year-old QB behind an offensive line that will do nothing to hold up the Eagles' pass rush. The Chiefs can bottle up Keenan even without Eric Berry, and whatever Julio posts is moderated by Matt Ryan starting for Animal House.

Oh, and Tennessee will kill Russell Wilson and Miller is losing his job to D'onta Foreman. Sources tell me that Barker is well aware of this and is desperately trying to trade for Foreman. Beyond that, Paul Perkins suuuuuuuuuuucks and Kerwynn Williams already lost his starting role to a 31-year-old RB who was a FA when the season started. 

This Russellmania team is complete garbage. I think I mainly picked them #1 overall in the season preview because I felt bad for Brian and didn't want to pick on him. That feeling is long gone.

You will note, though, that Brian picked up Terrence West today. I did offer him in a trade earlier this week but never heard back. Credit to Brian for waiting me out, figuring I would cut him. I'm sure he thinks he outsmarted me, though I'm not broken up about cutting a below-average back who hasn't capitalized on three different opportunities, is hurt this week, and is losing his job to Javorious Allen, whom I grabbed instead.

Yeah, I drafted West, but Mike Sembrat was sitting right next to me and can confirm that I made this face before making that selection:

In fairness, I do need to admit that I've developed a tell. You see, my roster is so carefully curated, so well thought out with every player serving a purpose, that if I ever do offer up a guy in trade, it's a sign I'm going to cut him soon. I'll need to work on this.

THE PICK: AH 78 - RM 71

SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER (1-1) vs. THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-0)

Before the season started, I offered Bri Allen Robinson for Crowell, noting that we could 1/X both of them. Bri turned me down. When he approached me today about trading for Crowell, I was initially receptive...and then I noticed that Crowell costs $1.62 this year. Like Jordan Howard, I have no idea what this contract price is based on. Isaiah Crowell is the 9th-most expensive RB in our league? Seems like a lot for a guy who has 12 points total in 2 games. I mean, he's like $0.15 less than AJ Green, who I'm told is untradeable because of his contract.

Of course, if Crowell has a good game against the Colts this week, I'm sure the goldfish in this league will beat down Bri's door for him.

During those trade talks, Bri told me, "I don’t want to make a big trade.  My team doesn’t suck.  My problem is that I don’t have enough available contracts for all my good players. 

We might be on Cam watch mid-way through the season.

How good would my team be if I had franchised AB and dumped Cam last year.  I’ve generally made good choices about when to dump guys…but definitely missed on that one.  Write that in your weekly update."

So there you have it. 

Tim's scoring preview was blank yesterday thanks to an illegal lineup, so I went to this team page to see what the issue is. At that moment, he had 5 bench players when you must have 6. Why only 5? Because he put Corey Coleman on IR. Here are some facts for you to read:

• Corey Coleman broke his hand last week
• The Browns put him on IR to return, so he's out at least 8 weeks
• Our league roster freeze is the same week Coleman can return
• Corey Coleman costs $1.35
• His contract is 2/2
• Corey Coleman averaged 6 points/game last year
• He averaged 6 points/game so far this year
• Tim is not cutting him
• Tim is making a bad decision

It doesn't even matter that Tim picked up Chris Johnson to get legal. Bri was going 3-0 either way.

Though I am looking forward to Tim waiting until 1:15pm Sunday to pick up another player, forcing Gary to email the whole league about it.

THE PICK: TKSMB 99 - SS ???

***BREAKING NEWS***

I emailed Gary just now to ask why in the world Tim would put Coleman on IR, expecting that we'd have a few chuckles over this egregious error. 

Gary wrote back, "No joke, I have been trying to find a way to trade for Coleman since before the season.  I figured after 2 decent Cobb games Tim might accept a straight up swap.  I was going to extend him to 3-Yr despite his silly cost.  Good think Jordy got hurt and made me keep Cobb for awhile."

So...Gary would trade Randall Cobb for a guy who averages 6 points/game, but NOT for AJ Green. And he would extend his contract so he could pay COREY COLEMAN like $1.60 in 2018!

By the transitive property, Gary thinks Corey Coleman is better than AJ Green.

!!

!!!!!!!!!!

Again, I am going to lose my fucking mind.

THE NIGHT BOYS (1-1) vs. ASSTANNER (1-1)

Man, I know I said Trevor Siemian was looking live so far this season, but I didn't somebody would start him this quickly. 

Barker's team has some serious problems this year. I mean, he has two kickers, two defenses, two quarterbacks, three Patriots, and zero useful players. Maybe Gillislee, I guess, assuming the Patriots get tackled on the 2-yard line. 

As for this week, Burkhead missed practice with a rib injury and wasn't getting the ball even when healthy. Kenny Golladay followed up his outstanding debut with 0.8 points, but is still starting this week. Brandin Cooks won't have time to get deep this week before Watt and Clowney get to Brady, and Pat Pete was shut down Dez as usual. Chris Thompson has drawn into the starting lineup, a mere 3 days after his coach said they can't give him the ball that much because he's too small.

With this many bad starters, you may ask, why not go to the bench to change things up? Because, as mentioned, the bench has a QB, a K, a DST, Thomas Rawls, and Devin Funchess.

This is a Tim-level team.

Shady will have a tough time getting anywhere against Denver, Zeke should struggle against Arizona, and Jalen Ramsey can shut down Maclin without much problem. Dalvin Cook, Devante Parker, and the schedule will bail out Chris this week.

THE PICK: AT 68 - TNB 43

THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (1-1) vs. WTTK? (1-1)

You know what? I actually think McCamey can win this game. I'm sure he'll think that his 2-1 start is evidence that his preseason moves and draft were not a combination of the Hindenburg crashing directly onto Titanic, but it's really just evidence that he plays in a AA-ball division. 

Carr can get after Washington, Henry should gouge Seattle with Murray out, and Ameer can get lose against Atlanta. Jordan Reed is hurt, though, so I guess J.J. Nelson comes in? Eric Decker?

I want to say that Larry should consider Cutler over Mariota this week, but he might not listen to me after last week's Frank Gore mistake. All 3 of his receivers are going to be bottled up.

This preview got the short end of the stick this week. I'm sorry. Gary drained all of my pep earlier. 

THE PICK: WTTK? 79 - TWR 68