Friday, October 13, 2017

AFFL Week 6 Preview

LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON: 19-11

We dedicate this week's song to the Dolphins' former offensive line coach. He thought he was her daddy but she had five more.





THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY (1-4) vs. ASSTANNER (4-1)
Whooooooooooooooo, Zeke! Oh baby! He can kneel for the anthem this week if wants! Ain't nothin' Jerry can do to him when he's sitting at home!

Dallas is actually on a bye this week, so Chris will be without Zeke in Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, and Double Week 12. He'll be back for the last game of our regular season and the playoffs, assuming Chris can even make the playoffs, even with a 4-1 head start.

Legal proceedings aside, also sitting this one out due to bye are Shady, AJ, and kicker Dan Bailey. Plus, this is also newly relevant Alfred Morris' bye. Oh, and Dalvin Cook is gone due to injury. This week is the part of season documentary when Liev Schrieber grimly intones, "But the Asstanner did not realize at the moment that this was the season's high water mark."

If that's not enough for you, Devante Parker is hurt, Wayne Gallman isn't going to do a thing against Denver, and Kendall Wright isn't going to do a thing against Baltimore. Jerick McKinnon, who ruined my Latavius pickup last week, is going to need to score about 60 points to hurt me for a second week in a row.

So...I am happy to have landed Odell and I'm happy to sign him to a contract. He'll be expensive in '18 and '19 to be sure, but I now feel like I essentially have 3 first round picks next year.

Let me tell you how I almost blew it.

I had it in my head (incorrectly) that I'd have the #1 waiver priority for any waiver player this week. I figured I could grab Mack on Tuesday, and then when BB dropped Odell for somebody on Tuesday, I'd also have priority for Odell on Wednesday. As it turns out, I had priority for Mack, but using that move burned my priority for the week. The priority doesn't reset until next week. So I got Mack, yeah, but I fell back in line on Odell.

While fighting off mild heart attack system with half an aspirin, I asked Gary to erase my Mack move and give me Odell since we had discussed it Monday. He (correctly) told me my move had to stand. Lucky for me, half the league couldn't even afford Odell due to cap problems and I ended up getting him anyway. Not my finest moment overall.

But after all of that, was it even a good move? Well, when I was kicking myself for my stupidity, Gary told me not to worry. I'd probably still get Odell because nobody else would even go for him because picking him up was the wrong move because he'll be so expensive in '18 and '19. On the other hand, after the pickup was announced Brian Williams emailed me within 10 minutes to say it was the only good move I've made this season. So figure out whether you like Gary or Bri better and there's your answer.

But here was my reaction:



Oh! The game! I almost forgot. My team is not good. I'm looking at it this week and there's simply no way to talk myself into competing this year. And yet...I'm going to win this week simply because of Chris' roster problems. And it's entirely possible that after this week five teams will be 4-2, five more will be 2-4, and the other two will be 3-3. I'm potentially 1.5 games out of the playoffs with 8 games left.

I just can't win many more of those 8.

PS, I didn't even want Mack and Perine that much. I only picked them up so Chris can't have them for this game.

THE PICK: TDHGNM 65 - AT 50


THE NATIONAL RAZOR (3-2) vs. RUSSELLMANIA (2-3)
Kudos to Brian Barker for figuring out a way to make a kicker cost more than his listed price. Thanks to his Bryant-Rams-Folk-Bryant debacle, Brian is paying $1.86 for Bryant this season even though he only costs $1.64 this year.

Brian has 27 players listed on his 2017 team sheet, a number that makes even Chris shake his head. He had five players on his roster for a single week. Matt Stafford is practically a veteran, having lasted two weeks. He has $0.06 of cap room at the moment, though he could drop Alex Smith and the Rams after Seattle's bye this week.

He had a ton of picks coming into the season, he made a ton of splashy trades before the draft, he's had a ton of bad luck, and he's made a ton of mistakes.

Reminder: This was the #1 ranked team coming into the season. This fantasy life is wild.

This might be one of the toughest games to pick so far this season. It's even tough to pick who I want to win. Gary falling to 3-3 would be hilarious, but Barker falling to 2-4 helps me in the division. Both Brady and Smith should have good games, but an edge to Brady. Lamar Miller can't have two good games in a row, and even though I'm flexing Kamara in my other league, I'm skeptical about the classic rookie-second-string-RB-whose-had-one-good-game-so-far-that-happened-to-be-last-week. But I like Duke, who is now Cleveland's best RB ahead of Cr😞well, and I like Freeman against Miami.

Julio and Keenan have good matchups, whereas TY is on the road, and Sanders might get Janoris Jenkins at times. Barker has a DST edge, but Matt Bryant is questionable and he cannot afford another kicker this week without dropping a name brand player like Demaryius.

Man, close one. Definitely coming down to TY on Monday night as we're all watching. But TY will not get in the end zone, wasting a huge game from Brady.

THE PICK: RM 81 - TNR 79


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL (3-2) vs. WTTK? (2-3)
Cam looked baaaaaaaad last night. It didn't even matter that he was throwing into triple coverage because he was so inaccurate that he missed all four guys by 10 yards. It was so bad that I was waiting for Romo to explain how a coach will call plays for a comeback when a QB can't hit his receivers.

It helps that franchise players can now be 1/Xed, but even with his salary at $0.74, I can't see anybody offering more than a 5th rounder for such a bad QB. Maaaaaaybe Brian Barker, who needs to prioritize cheap over good right now.

The problem is that Brian Williams, as you know, is an accountant. A QB who only costs $0.74 and can be 1/X is a real asset in this league. It would physically pain him to give away such an asset, even a damaged asset, for such a pittance. Cut Cam? Please. He probably has a special script running on his AFFL league page that fires off a big, red ERROR! YOU ARE NOT PERMITTED TO MAKE THIS TRANSACTION! warning if he tries to drop Cam. Like if you try to write off 150% of your salary in TurboTax or some shit.

But!

He also has DeShaun Watson, who only costs FORTY CENTS. Now THAT is an asset! That's an asset you need to keep. Problem is, all of Bri's contract slots are full. So he needs to do something in order to keep DeShaun. Trade Cam for what he thinks is not enough, go against the entirety of his being and cut Cam, or go against part of his being and cut "starting" running back Isaiah Cr😢well, eating $0.62 or so in cap space for nothing.

Quite a pickle.

Anyway, DeShaun should be great again this week, but Cousins should be even better against that Niners defense. Crowell and Ajayi will do nothing, and Gurley could be limited by a Jacksonville selling out to stop the run like they did against the Steelers last week.

Then again, outside of Cousins and maybe Abdullah, McCamey is rolling out a whole lot of nothing this week. Jordan Reed could have 20 points or 2 concussions, Derrick Henry is getting 10 carries, John Brown is all or nothing, and the Dolphins defense? Really? Going into Atlanta? Okay.

Bri gets away with one here.

THE PICK: TKSMB 73 - WTTK? 66


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS (2-3) vs. ANIMAL HOUSE (3-2)
I mentioned that I essentially have 3 first round picks next year, but Larry goes into 2018 with David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans, and a potential lottery pick. Not too shabby. Hopefully the wait is worth it because there is no point in talking about this matchup or the rest of Larry's 2017.

THE PICK: AH 69 - TWR 50


TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS (2-3) vs. THE NIGHT BOYS (3-2)
Barker is starting Kevin Hogan this week, which is fitting because he is turning into the Cleveland of the AFFL. This team dedicates itself to the musical memory of Doo Doo Brown.




Scott lost the first 3, will win the next 3, and here we stand.

THE PICK: TDHAF 85 - TNB 49


SIGMUND AND THE SEA MONSTER (3-2) vs. LITTLE BABY JESUS (3-2)
Semi is only paying $0.90 for Peterson for the rest of the season. That's a $1.61 discount from his Week 1 contract price. That has to be the biggest in-season price cut on any player in league history. You could fill out an entire roster of players who don't cost $1.61. Bri has TWO quarterbacks that don't add up to $1.61.

As for Semi's other players, Rodgers always gets by against Minny, but Xavier Rhodes will shut down a gimpy Jordy. Tyreek had a hamstring problem this week, but if he's healthy, the Steelers don't have anybody that can come close to covering him. Lynch is cooked, but Hogan should put up at least 16 against the Jets.

Jordan Howard is really good. Watching him last Monday, he is really something. He's on a bad team and $1.92 is way too expensive, but he's very good.

Speaking on MNF, what is with this new trend in which a team will play a prime time in consecutive weeks or 2 out of 3 weeks? Why are we driving this team so hard? Why in the hell are the Bears and Colts taking up 4 prime time games in the first 6 weeks?

Anyway, Brees can light up the Lions, and Hunt will destroy the Steelers. Hopkins will be nice against Cleveland, but Rishard Matthews can't do anything with Cassel throwing to him. I'd put Ingram in there instead. If Tim plays Ingram, he'll win.

THE PICK: SS 82 - LBJ 77










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