Monday, October 30, 2017

AFFL Week 8 Review

Another thoroughly mediocre week for my team, but another incredible week for the picks. The picks are 16-2 over the last 3 weeks. And that's not just from taking chalk. There have been some upsets mixed in there.

So there's a new hex for me. Once I gave up hope, I was granted total clarity and a vision of the future.

This week, it wasn't just the W/L picks, either. When I look at how some of my point predictions turned out, all I can think is...




SIGMUND AND THE SEAMONSTER 73.3 - THE DUDE HAS GOT NO MERCY 67.9 👍
Naturally, Tim started Amari after that pointspalooza last week, so naturally, Amari had 5.5 points while DeAndre Hopkins naturally had 28.4 points on the bench. Not that it mattered. Interesting factoid: the Saints are 5-2 even though Brees is on pace for his worst numbers since arriving in New Orleans. I guess them finally giving the ball to Mark Ingram helps.

This might sound crazy, but I don't think my team is bad. There have been 3 AFFL scores in the 40s this year, 2 in the 30s, and Larry posted a 25 once. Only once have I posted the worst score of the week, so with incredible schedule luck, I could be 7-1.

My guys are just aggressively mediocre. I usually score between 65-75, but I never have two guys going off in the same week. I never have that amazing game that can push me up to 90. I just have pluggers.

Forget that, let me sell you on some of my players if you're thinking trade. Everybody is available, but did you know that Carlos Hyde is top 10 RB and just got a new QB? Or that Adam Thielen has the 2nd-most receiving yards this season? He scored his 1st TD this week and if you think 5 TDs is a fair season total for him, that means he'll score 4 TDs in the next 8 weeks. Or that Dion Lewis' carries have gone up every single week? Or that Marlon Mack will be a super athletic starting RB if the Colts trade Gore this week? Or that I have 2 kickers on high-octane offenses who cost $1?

Just for the historical record, though, there were 4 defenses I could've picked up and won with this week. Carolina, Indianapolis, New England, and Atlanta. So there's that. Add it to the hex pile!


THE WHITECHAPEL RIPPERS 71.6 - THE NATIONAL RAZOR 65.2 👍
Gary got a little too deep into the Kahlua Friday night and wrote...

"a) you just want me lose, I'm not actually gong to louse, and

b) I wanted to sign Howard after I drafted him but couldn't do it. I'm not chasing points this year, I'm looking ahead to next year when Brate is gone and he's the next Gronk."

Well, he lost. 

But also...he couldn't sign Howard after the draft? So...Gary is claiming he couldn't sign Howard after drafting him in the 10th round because "reasons." He cut Howard to get his final roster down to the right size, choosing instead to keep CJ Prosise and Ted Ginn.

Of course, two days later he cut Prosise for Logan Paulsen (???), only to turn around and cut Paulsen for Wendell Smallwood the next day. Two weeks later, he dropped Smallwood and picked up Jason Witten. The next week, he picked Smallwood back up. Then he dropped Witten for Andre Ellington.

So all this time, Gary is churning players, but never brings back "the next Gronk." If he would've cut Ted Ginn before the season, he could've had "the next Gronk" on his roster for like $0.25. He picked up Logan Paulsen and Jason Witten before "the next Gronk" in a league that doesn't even require tight ends. 

Finally, OJ Howard has 1 good game so Gary drops Andre Ellington for him. 

Gronk is such a generational talent that his numbers need to be compared to wide receivers, not tight ends. Gary has the next generational talent on his roster for $0.25 and just lets him go free? And then when Paulsen, Smallwood, Witten, Smallwood again, Ellington, Ginn, and Prosise don't pan out, he never thinks to go back and claim the next generational talent? He somehow only remembered his scouting report on Howard after a 20-point game?

I dunno. Seems dubious to me.

PS, Howard had 1.6 points this week.

And I predicted this game would be 70-66. Not bad.


WTTK? 72.5 - LITTLE BABY JESUS 55.9 👍
I predicted 74 points for WTTK? this week, which is not bad. Though, in fairness, the original CBS projection was 72 points. 

On Friday, I was all set to make an incredulous comment about Paul Richardson being in McCamey's starting lineup. Then I thought that if I did, the way things have gone for me this year, Richardson would have an incredible game. Richardson had 105 yards and 2 TDs and actually had a 3 TD called back on a penalty. So I was right. To, uh, not say anything.

The great Joe Mixon had a decent score thanks to receiving yards, but he had 11 carries for 18 yards. On one sweep, he actually tripped himself. Joe Mixon, ladies and gentlemen.

Also, McCamey won despite starting 2 tight ends on purpose.

Wait. Semi is having a kid?! I didn't even know he had someone to put a kid into.


RUSSELLMANIA 98 - TIMMY DOESN'T HAVE ANY FRIENDS 85.5 👍
I predicted this one would be 103-83. Not bad. 

Russ threw 4 TDs and Lamar Miller had 2 TDs, though Julio continues to disappoint. 

This is just a tough loss for Scott. He would've beaten 7 other teams this week. Melvin Gordon had an 87-yard TD run. Dallas had a defensive TD. Ertz scored yet another TD. But it came down to QBs. Brian had Russ, Scott had Jameis and his very sorry 3.3 points. He also, in a way, had Ben, who could only get AB to 7 points. This season might really be it for Ben, which makes AB a very interesting franchise player next year at like $1.91 and Josh Dobbs throwing to him. 


THAT KANGAROO STOLE MY BALL 100.4 - THE NIGHT BOYS 39.9 👍
We all know Bri is lucky. Starting the worst of your 3 QBs but still scoring 100 points? Lucky. A what-the-hell 9th round pick on Deshaun Watson? Lucky. Leaving Watson's 30 points on the bench and not even having to worry about it? Lucky. Two defensive touchdowns? Lucky. 

None of that is even the luckiest thing that happened this week. Let's talk about Isaiah Crowell. Crowell has been utterly useless this season. Zero TDs through the first 7 weeks. An expensive contract gumming up Bri's roster. His best week was 8.6. Two different weeks under 4 points.

But Bri needed him this week because of byes. Well, maybe not needed. There were multiple free agent RBs and WRs with more points on the season than Crowell. But Bri held him for an extra 4 weeks just so he could use him this week. So of course Crowell puts up 118 yards and a touchdown.

I mean...what the fuck? How does this shit always happen for Bri?

Or fuck, how about getting to face an opponent who puts up 39.9? Only 3.9 for Dez? Only 6.3 for Dak? You guys don't have to give it Zeke EVERY time.

Ridiculous.


ASSTANNER 96.3 - ANIMAL HOUSE 87.1 👍
Zeke's temporary restraining order was knocked down tonight, so his suspension is back on. Except...the NFLPA will appeal tomorrow, so the suspension is still holding. At this rate, Chris is going to win a 3rd straight title with Zeke scoring 40 points in Week 16, then the suspension will kick in for next year, so Chris will be able to draft Zeke in the 6th round with his first pick of the 2018 draft.

It's all so stupid.

Neither of these teams started a defense this week. I'd suspect a gentlemen's agreement, but I don't think Chris or Meyers even have each other's emails. Torrey Smith played but still had a 0, so Chris had 2 positions combine for 0 points and he still put up 96. That'll happen when your backfield teams up for 70 points. That includes Jerick Goddamn McKinnon putting up another 20 points.

Unbelievably enough, Meyers started JuJu this week. Though all his 25.3 points did was make this game seem closer than it was. Only 13.1 for Le'Veon, another mediocre game for Michael Thomas, and another mediocre game for McCaffrey. McCaffrey is just a flat out bust at this point.

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